Are we light on for elite talent?

[BigMart]

We have two AFL champions (1 Legend) but they are ageing being 33 & 34. Roo would still be in the top 30 in the league (around 25 possibly) and Joey is still a more than serviceable AFL player.

But that leaves Jack Steven - perhaps top 20-25?

We bat deep, in some areas too deep IMO however, we are very light on for absolute cream. There is excitement, the team is good, well rounded, well prepared and coached... Well much better than recent years anyway. Yes, we should play finals.

I've read a lot of stuff where I think supporters may be thinking more about perceived potential rather than proven ability.
Really, besides the above mentioned we don't have many proven A Graders

Seb stepped up last year, but to be proven he needs to do it again
Membrey, Hickey the same
Armo was stepping up before injury in 14, then did so in 15... But again because of fitness regressed last year
Roberton had had good and average seasons
Mav is making improvements each year, but is not a gun ATM
Newnes a steady burn, but no star yet.
Bruce didn't quite back up 2015 and seems a solid player

We consider
Billings, Paddy, Acres, Gresham, DMac as the potentials to be A Grade but of course they have not got close to achieving that level consistently yet... Have shown promising glimpses, as did Lonie and Sinclair the season before, Dunstan the year before that

I can see all of those players developing at some point but as it stands they haven't achieved much... Statistically The maligned Billings is the best ATM

Carlisle has huge upside, but he was disappointing in 2015 and missed all of 2016, and is not yet training fully for 2017... Yet some are suggesting top 5 B&F and perhaps another AA (which he actually never was, but for some reason gets linked with)
Freeman is further back and not really worth considering at the moment
Steele is also recovering from injury and I think he will start behind the 8 ball

Fact is, besides the relentless Jack Steven
Our proven consistent performers are the ageless Dempster, Riewoldt, Montaga while Geary is consistently very good

We had zero AAs last year, perhaps in 2015 also??

Who is elite?

J. Steven??

Who do we have better than
Sloane, Betts, Beams, Cripps, Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Watson, Heppell, Hurley, Fyfe, Sandilands, Neale, Dangerfield, Selwood, Rioli, Gunston, Lewis, Gawn, Winguard, Gray, Martin, Rance, Kennedy, Parker, Hannebury, Rampe, Franklin, Bont, Libba, Mitchell, Priddis, Kennedy, McGovern, Sheil, Shaw, Green

Where does Steven fit in that list? And of course thre are others I missed or will jump up this year... And can we be successful without more game breakers than Jack

Perhaps Paddy, Acres, Billings, Gresham, DMac will start to consistently deliver or Carlisle, Freeman or Steele will produce??
ATM though ... That is speculative for season 2017

I think before grandiose predictions, we need the first 6 games to find out a few things

Then we'll know if we need a free agent or two and who we nee too offload

[samoht]

Looking past 2017 - (and I agree with you that we need quite a few things working out for us this year, that an improvement isn't a given).

I'm of the opinion that a team that's strong and balanced overall without too many GOPs (with no GOPs ideally), i.e., one that's replete with genuinely good and very good players - even without any elite talent - will perform at least as well as a team with 6 elite and 6 GOPs.
Balance is important (the right balance of speed/spread/height/inside/outside/a strong spine, efficiency) - with no weak links/no GOPs.

The elite talent comes at a cost in the long run.

I'd rather we aim to become a strong and balanced team overall.... if DMac and others develop into superstars, that'd be a welcome bonus, of course.

If you allocate a rating out of 10 for each player, I'd rather be a team where the overall score of our top 22-30 players would put us at or near the top - and then because we worked smart and diligently at getting the right balance (of speed/spread/height etc..) - it tips the scales our way.

[Con Gorozidis]

No arguments on this.

Steven is our only player currently in the AFL top 50. He is probably somewhere between 30-50th best player in the comp. Roo would be 50-70.

To win a flag we need 3 blokes in the top 50 and another 3-4 in the 50-100 category at the one time. So essentially we need 5-6 extra guns within a 3-5 year window.

IMO, these 5-6 could come from:

Acres, Carlisle, Gresham, McCartin, Billings, Newnes, Ross, Weller, Hickey, Steele, Freeman, Membrey, DMac (13 players who could potentially be top 100).

And then keep in mind we have 2 x first round picks in 2017 which gives us another opportunity at a top 100 player.

So I think our chances are pretty decent.

[Beno88]

No arguments on this.

Steven is our only player currently in the AFL top 50. He is probably somewhere between 30-50th best player in the comp. Roo would be 50-70.

To win a flag we need 3 blokes in the top 50 and another 3-4 in the 50-100 category at the one time. So essentially we need 5-6 extra guns within a 3-5 year window.

IMO, these 5-6 could come from:

Acres, Carlisle, Gresham, McCartin, Billings, Newnes, Ross, Weller, Hickey, Steele, Freeman, Membrey (12 players who could potentially be top 100).

And then keep in mind we have 2 x first round picks in 2017 which gives us another opportunity at a top 100 player.

So I think our chances are pretty decent.

I know it's off topic, but Nick Riewoldt is comfortably inside the top 50 players in the competition.

[borderbarry]

Roo is still out best player. In his last game he kicked 9 goals, took 21 marks, ans would have been the best player in the AFL in the final round. But because of his age, he is not going to be the star he has been since 2001. After him we have Jack Steven, who has won three recent Trevor Barker awards, and is a long way in front of everyone else. Then I would say Armo. Both he and Jack Steven got 12 Brownlow votes in 2015. Now the rest of the team are a long way behind them.
Wecan only hope that some of the boys we have taken over the last few years can also become elite over time.

[To the top]

This is where our Drafting comes into focus - and our recent "collection" of First Round Draft picks being Billings, Dunstan, Acres, McCartin, Goddard, Gresham and Freeman.

Along with Carlisle.

So there are the 8 players we look to be among the cream of the competition.

[dragit]

This is where our Drafting comes into focus - and our recent "collection" of First Round Draft picks being Billings, Dunstan, Acres, McCartin, Goddard, Gresham and Freeman.

Along with Carlisle.

So there are the 8 players we look to be among the cream of the competition.

Nearly up with another side which has had these picks

2011
1,2,3,4,5,7,9,10,11,13,14
2012
1,2,3,12,14,27
2013
1,2,14,29
2014
4,6,7,23,24
2015
7,13,16
2016
2,5,14,20

Which doesn't include free access to: Phil Davis, Cameron, Shiel, Treloar, Ward, Scully,
To go with top line recruits: Deledio, Johnson, Shaw, Griffen, Mumford

[st.byron]

No arguments on this.

Steven is our only player currently in the AFL top 50. He is probably somewhere between 30-50th best player in the comp. Roo would be 50-70.

To win a flag we need 3 blokes in the top 50 and another 3-4 in the 50-100 category at the one time. So essentially we need 5-6 extra guns within a 3-5 year window.

IMO, these 5-6 could come from:

Acres, Carlisle, Gresham, McCartin, Billings, Newnes, Ross, Weller, Hickey, Steele, Freeman, Membrey (12 players who could potentially be top 100).

And then keep in mind we have 2 x first round picks in 2017 which gives us another opportunity at a top 100 player.

So I think our chances are pretty decent.

How many do you reckon the Dogs have in the top 50?

The Bont. Easton Wood. Johannissen? Who else? The point is they won the flag without lots of elite talent. In the GF it was their second tier and lesser known players who really stood up.

[ROLS-LEE]

I'd rather a champion team. Not champions. As far as I can remember we have idolized barker lockett harvey Reiwoldt. I'd rather 10+ players between 50 to 100 than 2 top 50.
I just want a premiership and not a messiah or great white hope.

[samoht]

How many do you reckon the Dogs have in the top 50?

The Bont. Easton Wood. Johannissen? Who else? The point is they won the flag without lots of elite talent. In the GF it was their second tier and lesser known players who really stood up.

Therein lies the key - no weak links, a strong and balanced team overall with few to no elites can match it with and even beat top star-studded teams with a mix of elites and deletes (GOPs)!
It's like blending 2 colours - deep red for every elite , a lighter shade of red for a good player and white for every GOP. The overall colour mix needs to be as close to red as possible. This is obviously the goal!
The less white you have to add into the mix, the better.
All you need to do is get the overall blend right - the redder the better - and sorry for the crude analogy.
So, you can be light on for elites and still have the superior blend!

[spert]

Don't worry too much about elite players- it's all about strong teams who perform consistently well across all positions, with skilled players and less-skilled players all performing to their peak, and that's the formula for winning premierships- the Dogs showed that. We need strong, consistent performances, not just big games from some players and then nothing. Richo's aim will to be to build a strong team and get the most out of the middle and bottom six group of players.
I'm thinking we might see Acres step up a lot as an onballer, and we need Paddy to get a lot of games time and hopefully not have too many more concussion problems, as a forward line of Bruce, Membrey, Paddy and Roo, all in good form will be very hard to match up on for any opposition.
Looking forward to this season.

[Con Gorozidis]

No arguments on this.

Steven is our only player currently in the AFL top 50. He is probably somewhere between 30-50th best player in the comp. Roo would be 50-70.

To win a flag we need 3 blokes in the top 50 and another 3-4 in the 50-100 category at the one time. So essentially we need 5-6 extra guns within a 3-5 year window.

IMO, these 5-6 could come from:

Acres, Carlisle, Gresham, McCartin, Billings, Newnes, Ross, Weller, Hickey, Steele, Freeman, Membrey (12 players who could potentially be top 100).

And then keep in mind we have 2 x first round picks in 2017 which gives us another opportunity at a top 100 player.

So I think our chances are pretty decent.

I know it's off topic, but Nick Riewoldt is comfortably inside the top 50 players in the competition.

I agree. But at 34 I am not sure we can write him down as a sure thing looking ahead.
(edit: i missed Dmac in my original post above. I think DMac has top 100 potential).

[Con Gorozidis]

No arguments on this.

Steven is our only player currently in the AFL top 50. He is probably somewhere between 30-50th best player in the comp. Roo would be 50-70.

To win a flag we need 3 blokes in the top 50 and another 3-4 in the 50-100 category at the one time. So essentially we need 5-6 extra guns within a 3-5 year window.

IMO, these 5-6 could come from:

Acres, Carlisle, Gresham, McCartin, Billings, Newnes, Ross, Weller, Hickey, Steele, Freeman, Membrey (12 players who could potentially be top 100).

And then keep in mind we have 2 x first round picks in 2017 which gives us another opportunity at a top 100 player.

So I think our chances are pretty decent.

How many do you reckon the Dogs have in the top 50?

The Bont. Easton Wood. Johannissen? Who else? The point is they won the flag without lots of elite talent. In the GF it was their second tier and lesser known players who really stood up.

According to Ch 7 Stringer is the greatest player since Wayne Carey

Lachie Hunter and Jack Macrae are not 'elite' but they are pretty bloody good. Mitch Wallis aint bad either.
If Ross and Acres can sneak in to the top 100 we will be a force to be reckoned with. Newnes is already pretty darn close.
And on 2016 - I would have Hickey knocking at the door as well.
We have a large pool of talent capable of being very good AFL players. And I agree with you - I would rather have 22 very good players than 6 guns - 10 decent - and 6 duds.

[BigMart]

Libba

Is a gun, is the reason they were even in the GF and was critical in the GF

Is elite around the footy

[st.byron]

Lachie Hunter and Jack Macrae are not 'elite' but they are pretty bloody good. Mitch Wallis aint bad either.
If Ross and Acres can sneak in to the top 100 we will be a force to be reckoned with. Newnes is already pretty darn close.
And on 2016 - I would have Hickey knocking at the door as well.
We have a large pool of talent capable of being very good AFL players. And I agree with you - I would rather have 22 very good players than 6 guns - 10 decent - and 6 duds.

Yes it was blokes like Macrae, Clay Smith, Biggs, McLean and Dickson who really stepped up in the heat of the finals. None of them would be regarded to be in the top 100 I don't reckon but their pressure and commitment was the deciding factor.
Agree Libba is a quality player and they have Morris, Dalhaus, Daniel and "The Package". A very even team contribution wise and not at all reliant on star quality.

[White Winmar]

No.

[St Lenny]

Billings needs to step up. He has the potential but has failed to deliver. Lets hope he has a stand out year.

[Con Gorozidis]

So the way I see it we have:

1 guaranteed A grader = Steven
1 A+ grader at the very end of his career = Roo
1 possible mature A Grader = Armo

Then we have 13 young possible A graders

Acres, Carlisle, Gresham, McCartin, Billings, Newnes, Ross, Weller, Hickey, Steele, Freeman, Membrey, DMac.

If 7/14 of these possibles reach A grade = We are guaranteed top 4 for a few years.

[BigMart]

Is Billings judged harshly because of his draft position? And because he's supposed to be better??

Billings who plays majority HF and occasionally Wing/HB gets it around 20 times a game, and generally uses it well (not the elite kick which we are led to believe) He his not quick, but is not slow either, and is smart with the footy.
He is 21 and described as disappointing.

Acres has shown only glimpses of raw ability, but looks very damaging in patches. He is a fairly poor kick and can run himself into trouble a bit, but looks to have some big attributes. He has nowhere near the consistency of Billings, and both have been effected by injury.

Dunstan plays majority as a midfielder, and has done since debut because of a developed body. We were impressed how a first season mid could mix it inside and win it about 16 times a game. 2nd year Blues were blamed for a lack of improvement in his output. Last season, I actually believed he was disappointing. I hoped he would jump to a 20+ a game player and really give inside support (where we we ordinary, perhaps because of his low output). He has been on a plateau since debut, and is yet to really have a big game (and he gets many chances, and is yet to play VFL). Fact is he won the footy 17 times as a mid and by foot is very average, with little depth in his kicking. He is absolutely slow, which is why he can't find the footy outside and his opponents run off him with ease. This year he needs to go two levels forward with his running ability (as Ross did) and start winning some real footy. We also cannot compare him to Armo at the same time, Armo was in and out of the side and in a long queue of which Ross Lyon continually went with (Hayes, Jones, Ball, Dal, Goddard) Ross rarely trusted anyone kid, even Steven didn't get a gig. Luke is tough, has good hands and can dish, but is one dimensional.

Eli absolutely burned, like Minchington, as will Sinclair and Lonie will be, as they only averaged 8-11 touches a game. They are bought up from the VFL where they are free to hunt the footy and rack up huge numbers in the middle. When they get a chance at AFL level, they are stuck forward of the ball, and asked to provide 'defensive pressure' then are criticised for not being able to win the footy at AFL level. I can guarantee if any of those players (and Curren/Gresham) got good midfield minutes they would get between 15-25 a game. The small forward position is not an easy position to play for a player not established... Last player in, first player out sort of thing.

Billings is more high forward, but considering his role, his output is actually more than acceptable (maybe goals would be nice) but I think we want him to be elite, and because he's not yet, we are not satisfied. We defend Dunstan though, because we accept he is limited, like his character and find excuses for poor output - like bullocking work etc... Which is rubbish, all mids block and tackle... He just cannot spread.

[Beno88]

Our top end proven talent is highlighted by the fact we only have two best & fairest winners on our list. Only Collingwood has less (1).

[SaintPav]

Lets not forget that injuries to Billinngs and also Armo and Steven early in their careers impacted both availability and player development.

[Bluthy]

One of my concerns about our rebuild is we haven't ended up with a lot of very high picks on our list from the youngsters. Paddy 1, Billings 3 then we traded pick 5 down to get Carlisle. I'm not going to count Freeman as he's an outside chance a the moment in my eyes. Longer was pick 8 I think but is struggling a bit. It why last year I thought more chopping and changing of the team causing less wins and landing a pick 6 or 7 for a genuine onballer draft kid would have filled out our class a bit. Yes you need depth, but you also need class to win on the last game in Sep...October. There is no space on grannie day and you need guys who can use it wisely.

But we have a lot of promising kids in that 15-25 pick bracket - Gresham, Acres, Dunstan, Long, Ross. Steele, Goddard. You would hope a couple of those push up to A grade even elite. Plus some lower down picks that could be dark horses - White, Rice, McKenzie. Two first rounders next year gives us a chance at landing another 1 potential superstar (if we bundle up picks or trade) or two very promising players. So we have gathered lots of good looking strawberries in our basket just need to see which ones ripen and chuck out those that go a bit soft.

I have a platue theory teams and a-graders/elite players. I think that teams rebuilding with lots of young players are often very inconsistent and patchy. Players need to hit that 50 game mark to get a decent tank to play hard all game but also to really understand the game. Plus rebuilding teams are usually doing a lot of chopping and changing and experimenting as we have.

One your team starts to crystalise a bit, you get a lot of your talented kids past that 50 game mark, they start to genuinely work together and help each other out - then all players start to look better. You often get that quantum leap that has you wondering where all the talented players have come from. Its because you now have seasoned, consistent talent all over the field implementing a complex game plan they weren't able to pull earlier due to inexperience and everyone is looking better. A good system makes a b-grader look a-grader and and a-grader elite.

I think we saw that a bit in the second half of last year where the midfield group with the likes of Ross, Newnes, Acres stepping up gave us more depth and complexity around the ball rather than teams just being able to shut down Steven and Armo and having the game virtually won. Likewise Bruce, Membrey and Roo have developed a good system where they are not getting in each others way and give each other space - you rarely see them go for the same mark. So all three shine brightly. Chuck Paddy in there as a pack splitter and we quite a varied, sophisticated forward line of bigs.

Our backline though (possibly due to injuries but also Richo's conservaitism) is still old, experimental and in transition. Hence why we don't have elite talent shining on the backline. Chuck Goddard in now and he won't look brilliant - clunky a bit lost - doesn't have a lot of senior games under his belt. But get him developing a good system with Carlisle and Roberton and all 3 will lift each other to new levels as they cover each others weakness and watch their back. And then we might have another a-grader or two on our hands at the back.

[BigMart]

Interesting look at the injustice that is GWS and their talent from a picks POV

Let's look at where our players came from from a draft selection position initially


First Round Picks 1-18 (9)
1 - N.Riewoldt 2000
1 - P.McCartin 2014
3 - J.Billings 2013
8 - Billy Longer 2011 traded for second round pick
9 - David Armitage 2006
10 - Nathan Brown 2006 delisted free agent
10 - N.Freeman 2013 traded for second round pick
18 - L.Dunstan 2013
18 - J.Gresham 2015

Second Round (11)
19 - B.Acres 2013
21 - H.Goddard 2014
22 - D.McKenzie 2014
23 - K.Stevens 2008 trade for late pick
24 - J.Carlisle 2009 Traded to stk for pick 5 while receiving 18 (Gresham)
24 - N.Wright 2012
24 - J.Steele 2014 (academy pick) traded to Stk for Second round pick
25 - Seb Ross 2011
25 - B.Long 2016
33 - S.Gilbert 2005
34 - S.Dempster 2002 (f/s selection) traded to StK with Adam Schnieder for Pick 26

3rd round 37-54 (12)
37 - L.Montagna 2001
37 - J.Newnes 2011
38 - J.Battle 2016
40 - B.White 2015
41 - J.Lonie 2014
42 - J.Webster 2011
46 - T.Membrey 2012 Delisted free agent
47 - J.Steven 2007
49 - D.Roberton 2009 Delisted free agent
49 - B.Rice (f/s selection)

Round 4/5/6 (3)
56 - Ed Phillips 2016
75 - S.Savage 2008 Part of the McEvoy trade
75 - L.Pierce 2012

Interesting
Mav Weller chosen as a 17yo from 2009 for the GC, taken as a Rookie by StK in 2013
Tom Hickey was a zone selection for GC in 2009, traded to StK for a pick swap 13-25
Josh Bruce was a zone selection for GWS in 2010, traded to StK for pick 48 2013

Rookies (10)
J.Geary (elevated) , N.O'Kearney, J.Sinclair (elevated), N.Coughlin, D.Minchington (elevated), R.Marshall
International Rookie/Scholarship
J.Holmes (elevated), D.Joyce, R.Connellan, J.Baker-Thomas, B.Miller


Pretty even spread

A lot of the second/third rounders have turned out to be very solid citizens, therefore good drafting.

Pure talent
Riewoldt, Billings, McCartin, Acres, Carlisle, McKenzie, Montagna, Steven

[saintsRrising]

Based on last season, yes we clearly do not have enough elite players as of then.

The question now is whether others will step up to be elite this season. We have some excellent candidates.

IMO our overall depth looks to be much better. The biggest doubt for this year is whether some can step up to be elite. However we also need many of our players overall to step up a cog if we want to be Top 4.

Our list looks ripe to do this, but hear and now it is potential rather than actual.

[Bluthy]

Pure talent
Riewoldt, Billings, McCartin, Acres, Carlisle, McKenzie, Montagna, Steven

Gee everyone is bigging up McKenzie all of a sudden. Is it because he was at the top of the time trial? Thats handy but doesn't prove he'll be a great player. He strikes me as a little betwixt and between. Not particularly tall for marking but good above his head, a bit of dash but not out and out speed, pretty good kick but not super good from what I've seen. Could be a Geary replacement with the versatility able to play on the small and medium forwards and provide some dash out of the back.