Your Expectations of the Saints over the coming seasons

[joffaboy]

Just posted this in another thread and then thought it was appropriate to put in it in a new thread.

This may have been done in the off season, I cant remember, but thought it might be good to have a look now we are in 2014 at our realistic expectations of the Saints on field.

Nobody expects miracles. Dont think anybody expects finals, but with a new season, hope springs eternal and I am sure many of us are hoping to see development of our players and group and real progress.

So here are my (hopefully) realistic expectations of the team over the coming season and then 2015-16.

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I have real expectations of seeing an improved gameplan (after AR has been able to settle it in), no more goofy team selections (that many of us questioned throughout last season), the continued development of players like Steven, Newnes, Roberton, Wright, Murdoch, Webster etc.

The beginnings of careers like Billings, Acres et al, the hopeful beginning of Markworth, the hopeful emergence of Wight, the play of Savage, Delaney, Bruce etc, the continued forward development of Lee.

The ruck combo of Hickey and Longer, young ruckmen who will surely be in for a long hard season.

The veterans, Joey and Roo, Fisher, Dempster, Gilbo, Schneider (even Geary and Jones). I would expect that a couple (maybe Schneids, Gilbo, and Geary can lift there game, while I would liek the others to at least maintain their standards (could be difficult)

The list has been turned over dramatically and we have a range of raw recruits with potential, young recruits from other clubs, a small mid range and a group of grizzled old veterans. This will create a tremendous challenge for ourm third head coach in four years. Richo's challenge is tempered that there are so many new faces that he has the opportunity to mould the group as he wants them.

Dont expect multiple wins, but I dont expect Melbourne and GWS type defeats week after week. I do expect effort and competitiveness from our players.

My expectations will be higher in 2015, and looking for a tilt at finals in 2016.

[Cairnsman]

Personally I don't have any expectations on a ladder position other than being at the bottom will be a bonus in terms of DPs however having said that I still want to see us have a real crack and be competitive in most quarters played, which with the exception of a few games in 2013 I thought we played hard competitive footy especially earlier in the season.

My real expectation is to be able to see a few more players be added to the "keeper list" at the end of the season. In 2013 I thought we ticked that box nicely and hopefully those players don't have second year blues but am expecting it in a few players just the same. Similarly some players who we thought were going to step up in 2013 based on 2012 performances seemed to drop off a tad, namely Simpkin, so he is high up on my expectations list for 2014 as is Stanley. I am of the firm belief that Simpkin and Stanley, possible Stanley more so would have learned heaps during 2013.

I'm also expecting a leader or leaders to emerge as potential captain material by the end of the season.

I'm also expecting that we will see a sign that our new generation of players form a bond and belief that they have got the nucleus of something special which hopefully will also help the expectation of a future captain emerging.

Expect Jack and Armo to go up a notch too, especially Armo, I can't help but think we haven't seen the best of Armo yet and his body is really starting to look like it could rip up a full season of battle.

All in all I've got heaps of expectations but not so many of them them are really about the win/loss column however it would be good to see us win more quarters than we lose still the same. If we lose more quarters than we win in 2014 then that will probably suggest or confirm we didn't bottom out in 2013.

[Con Gorozidis]

If we do get some lift off in 2014 it will be on the back in improvement in the the 2nd -3rd year guys.

I don't think we should rely on some renaissance from the older chaps.

Ill be looking at Saunders, Siposs, Newnes, Bruce, HIckey, Longer, Ross, Wright etc etc etc etc.

The interesting one is how we will go uncovering a key fwd.

Will Lee, Stanley, White show they can be guns or we will be looking to go back to the draft...?

[plugger66]

I cant see how we can be better than the last season for the next 2 seasons and my reasons are our best players bar jack are still all our players over the age of 30. We have also lost dal and Milney and like BJ the year before it will effect us as we are weak in the midfield anyway. We have recruited for the future bar Delaney so even though I expect similar to last year I think the recruiting this year has saved us a year in the rebuild.

Next year we lose Lenny and probably one or two others as well plus Rooy and Joey will be a year older. Our younger guys we have had a for a year or two will improve but not enough for us to go anywhere in 2015.

In 2016 I expect us to improve because I think we will use FA in 2015 draft and our better draft pick players will have 2 and 3 years in the system. Hopefully end up like WB last season. Then in 2017 if we have recruited well we should be very close to the 8. By 2018 we will hopefully sneak into the 8 and then challenge in 2019.

[Dave McNamara]

I'm also expecting that we will see a sign that our new generation of players form a bond and belief that they have got the nucleus of something special...

Excellent point C'man!

I see this as really important going forward. As the blokes improve, this bond and belief is what will prevent them from being poached from us.


I also agree re Armo... IMHO, he remains amazingly underrated.

[Dave McNamara]

I cant see how we can be better than the last season for the next 2 seasons and my reasons are our best players bar jack are still all our players over the age of 30. We have also lost dal and Milney and like BJ the year before it will effect us as we are weak in the midfield anyway. We have recruited for the future bar Delaney so even though I expect similar to last year I think the recruiting this year has saved us a year in the rebuild.

Next year we lose Lenny and probably one or two others as well plus Rooy and Joey will be a year older. Our younger guys we have had a for a year or two will improve but not enough for us to go anywhere in 2015.

In 2016 I expect us to improve because I think we will use FA in 2015 draft and our better draft pick players will have 2 and 3 years in the system. Hopefully end up like WB last season. Then in 2017 if we have recruited well we should be very close to the 8. By 2018 we will hopefully sneak into the 8 and then challenge in 2019.

Hi Pluggs, I'm not seeing that we won't be better than last year.

I don't think that we have missed BJ's post-2010 GF 1 performances, nor will we miss Dal's cruisey 2013 effort. Tipper will be a loss, even though he wasn't at his best last season. Prehaps Lenny aside (who was injured for much of 2013 anyway), I can't see any of the older brigade dropping off much (if at all) in 2014. So, overall we shouldn't get weaker.

Stronger...?
The forward line will be better... Lee (definitely), Stanley, Markworth (probably), Sippa' (hopefully), BBBBeau (back from injury, and IMHO very underrated)... and then there's Spenc-arrrrh getting some game (and air ) time!
A lot of the kids will show natural progression.
Our rucks will be more competitive without Owl... as Hickey showed when he was the number one ruck late last season, plus we also now have Longer whom I suspect will prove to be a real steal... though sure, time will tell.
Sean D, Sams F&G and Gwilty back from injury has to help.

But the big improvement... we now have some large key-backs to (at worst) limit the carnage we suffered against almost every big opposition power-forward, and this will also free-up the blokes mentioned in the sentence above to return to their correct roles of third man up, intercept marking, and rebound from defence (= more forward 50 entires also).
Factor this into our results from last season, and do the sums I reckon... we just have to improve on that alone.

(The usual caveat of excessive injuries aside) I reckon we will surprise plenty next year. We won't miss the eight by too much.




I just hope that we still are left with a good enough first draft pick so that we can liberate Jon Patton (he's a Saints supporter) from the Wogans.

[plugger66]

I cant see how we can be better than the last season for the next 2 seasons and my reasons are our best players bar jack are still all our players over the age of 30. We have also lost dal and Milney and like BJ the year before it will effect us as we are weak in the midfield anyway. We have recruited for the future bar Delaney so even though I expect similar to last year I think the recruiting this year has saved us a year in the rebuild.

Next year we lose Lenny and probably one or two others as well plus Rooy and Joey will be a year older. Our younger guys we have had a for a year or two will improve but not enough for us to go anywhere in 2015.

In 2016 I expect us to improve because I think we will use FA in 2015 draft and our better draft pick players will have 2 and 3 years in the system. Hopefully end up like WB last season. Then in 2017 if we have recruited well we should be very close to the 8. By 2018 we will hopefully sneak into the 8 and then challenge in 2019.

Hi Pluggs, I'm not seeing that we won't be better than last year.

I don't think that we have missed BJ's post-2010 GF 1 performances, nor will we miss Dal's cruisey 2013 effort. Tipper will be a loss, even though he wasn't at his best last season. Prehaps Lenny aside (who was injured for much of 2013 anyway), I can't see any of the older brigade dropping off much (if at all) in 2014. So, overall we shouldn't get weaker.

Stronger...?
The forward line will be better... Lee (definitely), Stanley, Markworth (probably), Sippa' (hopefully), BBBBeau (back from injury, and IMHO very underrated)... and then there's Spenc-arrrrh getting some game (and air ) time!
A lot of the kids will show natural progression.
Our rucks will be more competitive without Owl... as Hickey showed when he was the number one ruck late last season, plus we also now have Longer whom I suspect will prove to be a real steal... though sure, time will tell.
Sean D, Sams F&G and Gwilty back from injury has to help.

But the big improvement... we now have some large key-backs to (at worst) limit the carnage we suffered against almost every big opposition power-forward, and this will also free-up the blokes mentioned in the sentence above to return to their correct roles of third man up, intercept marking, and rebound from defence (= more forward 50 entires also).
Factor this into our results from last season, and do the sums I reckon... we just have to improve on that alone.

(The usual caveat of excessive injuries aside) I reckon we will surprise plenty next year. We won't miss the eight by too much.




I just hope that we still are left with a good enough first draft pick so that we can liberate Jon Patton (he's a Saints supporter) from the Wogans.

Well if we didnt miss BJ last year it is even a sadder performance from our players. Of course we missed a guy who averaged 25 possessions just as we will miss Dal whether he cruised or not. Not IMO so that makes our midfield weaker already and he wont be replced by a young guy this year as BJ wasnt last season. The game is won and lost in the midfield again IMO and if the ball comes down slowly to our forwards then it wouldnt matter who is playing and if it comes down fast the backline again it wont matter who is playing. As for the rucks being better without Ben well you obviously rate hitouts and I dont. We are going to be worse around the ground this year with the loss of Ben again IMO. By the way only one side in the top 8 finished in the top 6 for hit outs last year. Also players coming back from injury mean nothing to me as we again could get injuries. Its an unknown so I dont count that. Obviously i want you to be right and me wrong but I cant see us winning more than 6 games this season. By the way what the hell are the Wogans?

[slider]

I will keep it simple:
1: Stay out of touble
2: Train hard
3: Improve on last year

[GrumpyOne]

I will keep it simple:
1: Stay out of touble
2: Train hard
3: Improve on last year

Even simpler.

Each successive year to finish higher on the ladder than the previous year.

[oh when the]

to win the first two games then see what happens for rest of season

[st_Trav_ofWA]

at the moment its all just wishful thinking we have the kids we just gotta see what ones develop and what ones dont ... i remembe rbeing sure Nick Heyne was going to be the next big thing for us , i remember thinking Winmar would be the crowd favorite , thinking the Cripps/Ledger combo was going to be the midfield one two punch for the future .... of this new crop some will make it some wont some will be come the "if only" players some will become the "what were we thinking" players but along the way we will hopfully find some good players who will like the last generation form a bond to do better than the old fellas at the club did before them .. i remember GT once spoke about the 2004 team of young guns wanting to make their own history ... im hopeful that in the next couple of years we see that happen again

[st_Trav_ofWA]

to win the first two games then see what happens for rest of season

you know what that round 1 game is going to be almost as nerve racking as a finals game ... for the winner (for a week at least) the media will talk up about being on the right path .. for the loser it will be all about how its going to be a long hard slog of a year ...

[bergholt]

Each successive year to finish higher on the ladder than the previous year.

Starting in 2015.

[SainterK]

A few rising star noms this year would be a step in the right direction, it will mean that we have some good kids, and that we are playing them.

[Devilhead]

This year I would just like us to be ultra competitive and not get blown away.

We will probably lose more than win however a couple of surprise upsets effected by our younger players would give our developing squad a big "belief" injection which should drive them forward in the following years.

If we starting losing games by big margins then the confidence of our youngsters will take a huge knock and it will be a very very long road back.

Never say die determination/mindset is what I expect and hope to see over the coming seasons ............................ and an improvement in skill level and decision making

[Dave McNamara]

Well if we didnt miss BJ last year it is even a sadder performance from our players. Of course we missed a guy who averaged 25 possessions just as we will miss Dal whether he cruised or not. Not IMO so that makes our midfield weaker already and he wont be replced by a young guy this year as BJ wasnt last season. The game is won and lost in the midfield again IMO and if the ball comes down slowly to our forwards then it wouldnt matter who is playing and if it comes down fast the backline again it wont matter who is playing. As for the rucks being better without Ben well you obviously rate hitouts and I dont. We are going to be worse around the ground this year with the loss of Ben again IMO. By the way only one side in the top 8 finished in the top 6 for hit outs last year. Also players coming back from injury mean nothing to me as we again could get injuries. Its an unknown so I dont count that. Obviously i want you to be right and me wrong but I cant see us winning more than 6 games this season. By the way what the hell are the Wogans?

Hi again Pluggs. My take... I agree with you about the importance of the mid field... providing that they can get clear, uhmmm, clearances. By that I mean that a rushed kick forward out of a pack, whilst heading in the right direction, doesn't necessarily give that side a clear advantage. Should the opposition win a clean (c/f rushed under pressure/kick-it-forward-and-hope) possession, they then have the opportunity to really set something up.

Same with tap outs... as long a the other ruckman is not allowed to put it down the throat of a team mate who is in the clear, then I see a tapouts as similiar to the rushed clearance... ie; it's still a 50/50 contest at the fall of the ball.

The problem with Owl was that he didn't just fail to win taps, but too often he allowed his opponent to dominate and provide the opposition on-ballers with those clear set-ups. Very damaging. (And on several occasions, he was towelled up by a 'no-name' ruckman.)

You are also right re the importance of around the ground ruckwork. That used to be his strength... right up till that (I thought would be) break out game he played the first time round against Carlscum. From then on, he started dropping those round the ground marks, so by the end of the season we were getting nothing out of him in either department. In contrast, from when Hickey was given the number one duties after half time (Owl was surprisingly, at the time, subbed off) in that match against I've-forgotten-whom , Hickey's confidence, form and influence really picked up. I remember several Saintsationalists who were Hickey-doubters doing a bit of a double take.

BJ. Yep, he's still been getting kicks, but since GF1, he's been a shadow of himself. I really don't think we've lost much. Dal took the number one tag last year, but that's all he really did.

So will Jack Dud now get that tag? Probably. But Jack is very hard to tag. He's sooooo quick. Secondly, he has this neat trick. When blocked, he doesn't seem to bother to wrestle, he somehow just 'ducks out the backdoor' and reappears somewhere else... but in-the-contest. Watch him... I haven't worked out yet just how he does it, but it is a really neat trick.

I also hear what you are saying re injuries. However, last year we did not have the blokes that we mentioned for most of the year. So, till any of them get injured again, I reckon it's very fair to factor them in as additions to what we had last season.

Then add in the new big key backs. Even if not stars, and again, I'm confident that both will surprise many... very pleasantly so, they can't do worse than the undersized blokes who had to sacrifice their normal roles to try and stand the opposition power forwards for us.

Bonus, those undersized blokes (Gwilt, Sam *2 and Dempster) will be freed up. One thing they will be able to do is supply damaging rebound. That will equate to improved forwardline delivery... both quantity, but also quality (as per my opening point re rushed kicks forward).


PS: What are Wogans? We are all trying to work that out Pluggs. But they live in a gated community, and play their games infront of two men and a dog somewhere out in the desert, in western Sydney. Why does the AFL bother...? I don't know.

[dragit]

I expect us to win a few games. I also expect a lot of heartache on here when more sides that we are used to beating, flog us.

[Cairnsman]

to win the first two games then see what happens for rest of season

you know what that round 1 game is going to be almost as nerve racking as a finals game ... for the winner (for a week at least) the media will talk up about being on the right path .. for the loser it will be all about how its going to be a long hard slog of a year ...

The conspiracy theorist in me believes that it was very deliberate by the AFL to fixture us up against the Dees in round 1 for the very reasons you mention...probably our only delicious game as Bruce would say.

To be honest Saints fans should brace themselves and hope for the best but plan for the worst. I'd expect that we would have had a lot of fans look at our draw and expect around 3 wins out of the first 6 rounds, but I wont be surprised if we have to wait until round 6 for our first real shot at a win because at the moment I think Brisbane are going to be this years "Basket Case" and we could potentially be fighting them for the title...I hope not but I am planning for the worst and hoping for the best when it comes to win/loss in 2014. I expect GWS to move up the ladder and Melbourne might improve depending on how quickly they can take up Paul Roos GP but they are in the same boat as us with regards to having a new coach but their list is probably ready to do a Western Bulldogs ala 2013 style so Paul Roos might be able to get them moving quicker that AR can turn us.

I always remember Robert Walls saying it takes a team about 18 months to get used to a new coach and his ways and going on past evidence he's pretty close to the mark in a lot of cases.

[BigMart]

Largely dependant on long term injuries

5-7 wins....

Competitive most weeks

3-5 debuts

Very good performances by 2-4 year players when in the VFL and performance progression when on the AFL

2 vastly Improved players.... I'd say Newnes and Wright... But Webster, Curran, Ross, Saunders or Murdoch could do?

A new simplified GP

[st_Trav_ofWA]

i dont think Roos is really all that great to be honest ... but win round one he will be lauded as the saviour of the Dee's ... the fact is realistically where the Dees are at with the age and games under the belt of their team they should go in as slight favorites.. we quiet possibly will have a similar average age to them on the game day the differance is i think their boys would have played a bit more footy together than our boys ...

[Zed]

I hope our youngsters (ie those with less than 5 seasons experience) feature heavily in our best players every week.
I hope we don't get blown away in games and remain competitive until the final siren
I hope we unearth some new midfield talent

2014: 15th
2015: 15th
2016: 12th
2017: 7th

Defence: Fisher and Dempster will retire in the next couple years. Bruce and Delaney need to really step up.
Forwards: Currently too much potential that just hasn't delivered ... at least 1 of Stanley, Lee or White needs to step up to become 'A' grade and at least 1 needs to become a minimum 'B+'
Mids: Need to find/develop another 3 'A' grade mids to help out jack in the next 3 years and at least 3 B+ . 1 of Stanley or Longer need to become dominant ruckman.

Mids is probably the quickest & easiest to fix through the draft. If Stanley Lee & White all fail then it will take longer to get back to the finals as we will have to draft more talls. IF they all fire we may actually climb quicker and higher.

[SaintPav]

I don't think that we have missed BJ's post-2010 GF 1 performances,

BJ's second half in 2011 was very good.

[bobmurray]

If we do get some lift off in 2014 it will be on the back in improvement in the the 2nd -3rd year guys.

I don't think we should rely on some renaissance from the older chaps.

Ill be looking at Saunders, Siposs, Newnes, Bruce, HIckey, Longer, Ross, Wright etc etc etc etc.

The interesting one is how we will go uncovering a key fwd.

Will Lee, Stanley, White show they can be guns or we will be looking to go back to the draft...?

I agree Con, i'm not sure if a quality key forward will emerge from what we have or if we will have to go back to the market to get one.

[remboy]

We'll struggle next year, finish mi table in 2015, make the 8 in 2016, then have a decade of dominance during which we'll win 6 flags.
This is based on nothing than wishful thinking. But if you're going to dream, dream big.

[Dave McNamara]

I don't think that we have missed BJ's post-2010 GF 1 performances,

BJ's second half in 2011 was very good.

I don't recall that. I guess I'd gone numb by then, and wasn't taking much in at all.

So very happy to defer to your assessment St P.