The Finals Equation

[dborsky]

I have been going over this in my head since the draw between the Lions and Sydney last night, and this is what i have come to.

First, i am only looking at teams that can catch us from below, not really focused on whether or not we can move up, just who can push us out. But for those who are interested, if all the teams above us lost their last two games of the season (not possible but anyway) we could finish 4th... realistically 2 wins could see us 6th or seventh.

So as it stands now we are 8th on 10.5 wins with two games to go

eagles @ TD
Tigers @ MCG

If we win both, we are guaranteed 8th at least

If we only win one of those then there are 3 teams that can catch us (the dags can't becuase of their terrible %) by winning both their remaining games.

Now to break it down

Brisbane - 10 wins

Adelaide @ AAMI
Geelong @ Gabba

Essendon - 10 wins

Richmond @ MCG
Eagles @ Subiaco

Adelaide - 10 wins

Brisbane @ AAMI
Collingwood @ TD

From this any reasonable person can see that Essendon are no chance of beating the eagles @ Subiaco and Brisbane plays Adelaide.

From this, the only way we can be knocked out that i can see is for the winner of Adelaide V Brisbane @ AAMI wins their next game too (or if a draw then brisbane can still catch us... hahaha).

If adelaide win next week, they need to beat the pies at the dome (can be done) and if its brisbane, then they have to beat Geelong at the Gabba (also can be done, but less likely than Adelaide beating the pies).

So in conclusion, 2 wins = finals. 1 win = hope brisbane beats adelaide

would be interested to see someone's analysis of how high we can get?

Cheers

[fonz_#15]

probably best to re-post this in the thread by owts re: finals

[Oh When the Saints]

Another thread on this a couple of minutes a go !!

http://www.saintsational.com/forum/view ... hp?t=34574

Sorry about that mate.

I would appreciate if you could copy/paste this into the other thread, just so all the discussion can be in one place.

Cheers!