Why Saints Must Finish Bottom 4 2023

[Teflon]

Good read
Lot of sense
Even brain dead know it’s not about 2023


Why the Saints must finish in the bottom four in 2023


A case of two steps back to take three steps forward for the Saints.
St Kilda must embrace sliding down the ladder if it wants to finally break the shackles of mediocrity.
It certainly seems like a tough season is approaching for them, with an injury list already sitting comfortably in double digits without a ball being bounced.
Best 22 members Max King, Tim Membrey, Jack Billings, Nick Coffield, Dan McKenzie and Zak Jones are projected to miss at least the first quarter of the season, while almost every other key forward prospect is ailed.
Think what you may of Ross Lyon but certainly, his return to the Saints offered immediate hope for a team constantly teetering on the edge of the top eight.
The cards that he has been dealt with ahead of the club’s first game has almost immediately eased all pressure and expectation for what Lyon can do this season.
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More to the point though, this all has things trending towards the potential start of a new chapter and under the tutelage of a more patient Lyon, that initial boost of hope that was felt can be a long-term prospect.
The return on investments in St Kilda’s drafting through the 2010s was nothing short of horrific. Sure, hindsight makes us all smarter, but draft aficionados never looked at a St Kilda draft with excitement at the time, which may have been a strong sign.
Clearly, the biggest success stories have been Jack Sinclair, Rowan Marshall and Callum Wilkie, all of whom were taken in the rookie draft. Jack Billings and Jade Gresham have never quite realised their full potential due to injury, yet both have managed to play at least 100 games.
Max King is the franchise saviour in many ways and looked a good pick, while we’re still waiting to see what Hunter Clark and Nick Coffield are if they stay on the park. Seb Ross and Jimmy Webster have hung around since the 2011 draft, neither of them are players of genuine, September consequence though.
Josh Battle has found his feet, as has McKenzie in recent times, but look at the names drafted by St Kilda over the last decade or so and it’s littered with players on the periphery, at other clubs or simply not on any list, having only played a handful of games.
Of all the players, only King and Gresham at his peak feel truly game-changing – it’d be nice to include Marshall on the list, but coaches hesitancy to play him as the sole ruckman throughout his career makes it tough to do so.
Ultimately, it’s just a squad with capped potential. Jack Steele’s a star and Dougal Howard is a pretty good defender, but the absolute best this team could possibly have done in recent seasons is sneak into finals and probably lose in the first round – handcuffed by their own administration.
Yet 2023 offers a wonderful opportunity for Lyon to wipe the slate clean and capitalise on good drafting over the last couple of seasons, with a shift in focus. Can he squeeze absolutely everything out of this current squad and get them to finish just outside the eight? Absolutely he can.
Will he? If there’s one thing that we know about Lyon, it’s that he doesn’t accept mediocrity.
The last two drafts have been really positive for the Saints. The 2021 crop was full of value and quite exciting. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is a smooth user and is the type of player that will be a lovely complementary piece to the midfield later in his career.
Mitch Owens will be seen as a medium, strong forward to start his career but he’s the inside midfielder with attention-grabbing upside. Marcus Windhager has game-changing speed as an offensive midfield threat. We’ll see what Oscar Adams becomes.
Owens and Windhager slid far more than anticipated and were cheap academy recruits. More importantly, they can make a difference.
It got better in the 2022 draft. Mattaes Phillipou could end up being one of the top three players from that crop and was worth the return-home risk. Olli Hotton at pick 35 can do amazing things and has x-factor in attack. Isaac Keeler at pick 44 was a steal and could be anything. James Van Es is the type that can be around for years.
Most importantly, we can come out of the last two drafts and identify multiple potential matchwinners, guys that can make a difference in finals.
Leaning on the experience of Head of Development and Learning Damian Carroll, and the successful careers of Corey Enright, Robert Harvey and Lenny Hayes, it feels like there’s a core group of leaders at the club that understand both the St Kilda ethos and the ways to be successful, a vital part of any rebuild.
Of course, things don’t always go smoothly and if there was a formulaic approach to success, everyone would be following it, although preventing the leaking of audio is probably a good place to start.
The way coaches handle playing groups has changed and whether Ross Lyon can find his own groove in mixing what he knows with what is effective in this day and age will have a big say on whether this actually works for St Kilda.
It’s easy for pride to be a factor if a coach believes it’s their way or the highway, but Damien Hardwick, Simon Goodwin, Chris Scott and John Longmire are perfect examples of long-tenured coaches adapting successfully.
But with the support staff at St Kilda, there’s excitement around the increasing number of quality young players and the developmental paths on offer that could bring the club success sooner rather than later.
It’s why, with the injury list the way it is, the kids must play and the results mustn’t matter. It’ll be a bitter pill to swallow, for fans particularly, given how long it has been since the Saints were contenders, or even relevant.
A single win from the opening seven fixtures is entirely possible – the Saints face Fremantle, the Bulldogs, Essendon, Gold Coast, Collingwood, Carlton and Port Adelaide, most of whom are pushing for the top eight.
At that point, there’d be no upside in trying to get the group pushing for finals, not when the last month of the season sees St Kilda face Carlton, Richmond, Geelong and Brisbane.
Again, there’s absolutely no pressure on Lyon to start the season that well and getting experience into young players without a mountain of expectation upon them is only a positive for all involved.
The 2023 draft has long been earmarked as one with elite talent at the top end and this so happens to be a season where St Kilda can easily work themselves into a top five or six pick without anyone batting an eyelid.
For the first time in over a decade, this is a group with more than a handful of young talents that project to be genuine difference-makers in big moments and it’s a squad that will only have one player above 30 come their first game on Sunday.
The term “short term pain for long term gain” comes to mind when thinking of St Kilda. They have finally started nailing their draft choices, there’s a strong developmental coaching core in place and with injuries galore, there’s no pressure or expectation.
A bottom four finish with this draft will help shape the future of the club. Ross Lyon and St Kilda simply must embrace the rare opportunity to slide down the ladder without consequence in 2023 to fast-track the team’s return to relevance in the future.
Discuss this article with thousands of AFL fans on The Roar - Australia’s biggest sporting debate

[Yorkeys]

Nonsense.

A bottom 4 finish would be a terrible thing for the club in so many ways.

This lose to win idea is akin to trickle down economics.

[Teflon]

Nonsense.

A bottom 4 finish would be a terrible thing for the club in so many ways.

This lose to win idea is akin to trickle down economics.

Nonsense is pretending your contending when you ain’t and staying 9-12
If there’s a time to drink deep from the draft it’s now…this years crop is a bumper apparently….Hawks prepared to do it..
My bet is if we don’t they’ll pass us in 3 years
This year is all about finding out who can play/who can’t - Lyon’s already said it
Anything else is a bonus

[Devilhead]

It's called tanking

[asiu]

i'm a fan

to the bank we go

as we should

[asiu]

nuh , it's called playing the kids

we need 3 years to get towards 40 games into em
without flogging em to death

utilise the whole squad
on the journey

and we'll be ahead of the pack when we get there

imo
fwtw

[asiu]

ps

we will beat freo

says Aeon



actually , what she said was
"... we will beat the purple puke "

that'd be a great start to the season of reason

[Waltzing St Kilda]

Meh.

In 2020 we lost to Melbourne by 2 points in a game we probably should have won.

The following year Melbourne won the flag and suddenly looked chock full of champions. That can happen very quickly.

If NWM, Windhager, Owens, Matteas and co exceed (or merely fulfil) expectations then suddenly we look like a completely different side.

[whiskers3614]

Nonsense.

A bottom 4 finish would be a terrible thing for the club in so many ways.

This lose to win idea is akin to trickle down economics.

Nonsense is pretending your contending when you ain’t and staying 9-12
If there’s a time to drink deep from the draft it’s now…this years crop is a bumper apparently….Hawks prepared to do it..
My bet is if we don’t they’ll pass us in 3 years
This year is all about finding out who can play/who can’t - Lyon’s already said it
Anything else is a bonus

The Lyon worshipper is getting the excuses ready for his idol!

[spert]

Heard it all before as a long time Saints supporter..rebuilds, premiership windows, 3 to 5-year plans blah blah.

[samuraisaint]

Tell that to Geelong.

As we know, top picks don't always guarantee success.

[Banger9798]

I hope the players don't take the attitude of that article

[King Max]

Who wrote this garbage?

[Lennylegs]

No club should hope to finish bottom four. Those days are dead. We need to become a club people want to play for. Geelong didn't pick up players like Bruhn and co by being bottom four. Same goes with Richmond and Hopper and Taranto.

Ross made these comments earlier in the week. I was glad to hear it.

[MC Gusto]

Meh.

In 2020 we lost to Melbourne by 2 points in a game we probably should have won.

The following year Melbourne won the flag and suddenly looked chock full of champions. That can happen very quickly.

If NWM, Windhager, Owens, Matteas and co exceed (or merely fulfil) expectations then suddenly we look like a completely different side.

Chock full of champions off the back of being chock full of first round picks which is essentially the point of the article

[shanegrambeau]

I can't see how tanking - or whatever term they're gonna come up with in the press, like rationalizing a drop to the bottom of the ladder in order to leverage the draft - is going to lead to happiness.

A small team like us, already relegated to 3:40PM Sunday timeslots, charity games in NZ, China and Cairns, would be on perpetual cellar dweller duty.

Look at teams with bigger resources, like Richmond (30 years of misery), Carlton and Essendon (nearly 20) that went to the bottom, and just couldn't recover.
On the other hand, look at North under Brad Scott and the Bulldogs under Luke B. Small clubs, crappy fixtures but they have (had) remained competitive until, in North's case, they decided to off load and go to the draft. St Kilda post Llyon too.

We just don't have the resources.

I think it is better to accept that we are a competitive team, aim for a sustained 4-8 finish, and then, if we do everything right, catch some luck, and sail right into a Grand final and then pinch it.

Right now, with RTB and the new-old boys, it is exciting, and we feel immortal. I would like to think it is possible and who knows, but in general, I think, if we go down, we stay down. So put on our best clothes, and play to win four points each week.

[BadRossco]

The way the injuries are mounting we will have no option than to finish in the bottom end of the ladder

[GSG]

Who on earth writes such crap. The flow-on effect on finishing bottom four would be enormous. Als already mentioned, we would own the 4.50 Sunday time slot, minimum Friday or Saturday games, loss of sponsorships, loss of memberships and how could we entice any good players to the club. Who in their right mind would want to play for St Kilda if they, once again, slide down the ladder. They might not make the final eight, but they MUST show some improvement and endeavour.

[asiu]

we are not heading in that direction to draft a 'core'

we are heading there to add more quality to our existing core

why not
we wont be the first or last to take the opportunity
that is opening up in front of us

[shanegrambeau]

The way the injuries are mounting we will have no option than to finish in the bottom end of the ladder

Agree Rossco, but having a tight-knit family of injured stars and players who remain focused on the cause is completely different than going down with an empty list, hoping to attract suitors - especially as a Sunday 3:40PM team.

We may go down this year, but not by design. And we will recover, as long as we don't give up what we have got and throw it all away. (Dropping spuds that were picked up opportunistically notwithstanding)

[saynta]

Harley Reid and the race to the bottom.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/ ... be3b0ebc01

"Wooden spoons are never fun to win. But if you were going to pick a year to finish last, this might just be it. That’s because the reward is a ‘bloody superstar’ named Harley Reid.
Mark Robinson

We’ve heard it before, that a looming draft kid could be a generational player.

Maybe another Judd. Or Gaz Jnr, Selwood or Dusty.

Harley Reid, from the Goulburn Valley dairy-farming town of Tongala, which is famous for not much these days, could be that very special talent.

He’ll go No.1 in this year’s AFL national draft, bet your last dollar.

“He’s a bloody superstar, so much like Dustin Martin it’s unbelievable,’’ one recruiter said this week.
Harley Reid is a star in the making.

On the eve of the 2022 draft last November, another recruiter told colleague Chris Cavanagh: “I’d pick him at No.1 in this year’s draft if he was available … there’s not much he can’t do.”

If Harley Reid was a reality TV show, it would be called The Amazing Race. And the prize? The Tongala Cup.

Tanking is a dirty word in football, but let’s not kid ourselves, because it’s uncanny how many players from the bottom-ranked teams are put out for surgery in the second half of the season.

Clubs call it player management, and giving opportunities to their kids. Nudge, nudge, wink, wink.

This season, there will be roughly 20 episodes of The Amazing Race.

Episode one is on Saturday with North Melbourne and West Coast at Marvel Stadium.

While episode two is this Sunday when Hawthorn plays Essendon.

The loser of that game will get an early-season hint about where it stands.

Both teams are young and rebuilding – just ask the coaches Sam Mitchell and Brad Scott who both have long-term deals – and need fresh young talent on their lists.

Both those teams, North Melbourne and West Coast, and maybe injury-ravaged St Kilda, will assess themselves as the season plays out.

A winning culture is a good culture, but rebuilds require elite talent and eking out a finish between, say 10th and 15th, can be construed as no-man’s land, especially if it happens year on year.

Top draftees can be a lottery, but the good judges say Harley Reid clearly is the golden ticket to the chocolate factory.


The Bombers, for example, play the Hawks, Suns and the Saints in the first three rounds. Three losses and finals are kaput.

Scott, in the first year of a four-year-deal, would be disappointed if they lost all three, but probably not devastated.

He’s building for a tilt in 2025 and 2026. He has time. He needs quality. He knows about Harley Reid.

In rounds 21, 22 and 23, the Bombers play West Coast, North Melbourne and the Giants. If the Bombers, for instance, were 17th or 18th on the ladder at round 20, would they really want to win their next three matches?

We’re not accusing Essendon, or any team, of potentially tanking, especially not ahead of the first game of the season. But as the year unfolds, list management wears different hats.

North is already playing kids, West Coast needs multiple draft bonanzas and so does St Kilda and the Hawks.

If the hat fits …

So, how good is the kid?

A midfield-forward, Reid’s season has already been mapped out. He will play at least eight of 13 home-and-away games for the Bendigo Pioneers in the Coates Talent League, obviously the championships, and also play VFL for Essendon and Carlton.

No one will say it publicly, but his development will not be further enhanced by dominating against other 18-year-olds, so the VFL excursions are considered the logical pathway.

Bluntly, the kid’s wasting his time playing under-age footy.

Pioneers coach Danny O’Bree understands the hype, but tries not to add to it.

“The hype has been real pretty much when he came into the team,’’ he said.

“He had a massive impact in his first game, he kicked three goals, a couple outside 50m, so it’s absolutely real.

“He does things that simply other kids maybe can’t or maybe aren’t doing at the moment. He’s quite a mature player.’’

See the similarity to Martin? O’Bree wouldn’t bite.

Instead, O’Bree gave a snapshot of Reid:

Fitness: “Room for improvement, but he’s working on that continuously.’’

Speed: “Quite good. He tested 3.006 seconds for 20m at the weekend.’

Game awareness: ‘’Extremely good.’’

Left foot, right foot: “Very good but still room for improvement. Decision-making is very good.’’

Marking: “A strength.’’

Aggression: ‘’A strength area.’’

Attitude: “Exceptional.’’

Leadership: ‘’Quite good for a 17-year-old. He’s a very-smart kid. He knows he’s good, but he’s not ahead of himself.’’

Off-field: “Great character. He can talk to a 75-year-old guy and can talk to a five-year-old kid. Just an exceptional character.’’

Position: “Mid-forward.’’

So, he sounds like Richmond’s No.4?

“Correct,’’ O’Bree said.

“Unfortunately we couldn’t give him No. 4, so we had to give him the No. 5, sort of like a Gary Ablett.’’

O’Bree laughed after that last comment.


The hype got to him.

How many clubs will be seduced by it as well?"

[bigcarl]

I think play our best fit team and let the results fall as they may. Given our injury list that may well be bottom four.

If you give games to kids ahead of good, established players, what does it say about selection integrity? Genuine competition for spots is at the heart of successful clubs and that is what we aspire to.

I think the majority of fans want the club to be as competitive as it can be given the personnel available.

All that said, I’m not expecting any miracles this season. We have a long, hard road ahead and the glut of injuries is forcing the club’s hand to play some kids who might not have got a look in yet. That will be a positive down the track.

[Sainter_Dad]

So - tell that to:
- King
- Phillipou
- Windhager
- Wanganeen-Milera
- Owens
- Moose (Heath)

Then ask them to sign on long term

Add that to:

- Byrnes
- Sharman
- Stocker
- Bytel
- Clark
- Higgins
- Battle
- Paton
[All under 25]

We already have the core of brilliant young players - one of whom is debuting tomorrow and by all talk if he was less than 2 weeks younger would be in the discussion for #1 draft pick next year

We need strength
We need skill
We need reliability

These come from being a destination club - not a cellar dweller

Imagine if we were a destination club and you could inject Hopper and Taranto into our midfield with no injuries we would be talking top 4!

If I heard we were tanking - I would cancel my 24 year membership and walk away!

Success comes from Culture - not draft picks - and certainly not a cheque book!

[desertsaint]

here we go again. top up, rebuild, top up, rebuild... no point rebuilding if you can't draft good kids. and our history at the draft has been a nightmare since the early days of the gt era.
so, in the words of the great fireman...i'm torn.

[st.byron]

I think play our best fit team and let the results fall as they may. Given our injury list that may well be bottom four.

If you give games to kids ahead of good, established players, what does it say about selection integrity? Genuine competition for spots is at the heart of successful clubs and that is what we aspire to.

I think the majority of fans want the club to be as competitive as it can be given the personnel available.

All that said, I’m not expecting any miracles this season. We have a long, hard road ahead and the glut of injuries is forcing the club’s hand to play some kids who might not have got a look in yet. That will be a positive down the track.

Well said. Not to hope for a bottom four finish, but our list does lack elite players and the point of the article is that we need another strong draft to keep building our list. "Must finish bottom four" is a clickbait headline. We finished tenth and picked up Mattaes. It's not about necessarily finishing bottom four. It's about recruiting well through the draft to build our list.

And this year is crunch time for a lot of players. Bytel, Byrnes, Webster, Connolly, Clark, Coff if he can get fit. They need to show they can be part of the future.
And Billings and Jones if they can't get fit. If those two can't get regularly on the park we should move them on and hopefully no more recruiting injury prone recycled players who break down every five minutes as key mids.