St Kilda FC is DOOMED......Saints to fold in 2021!!!!

[Sanctorum]

Getting sick of all so-called Saints supporters hijacking every topic that appears on this forum with their diatribes of doom and gloom, so can I please ask that all of you who have given up all hope and predict that St Kilda FC will go out of existence to use this heading to vent your warped views, I'll even kick it off for you with some recent comments from the usual offenders:

"Saintmatt wrote: ↑Mon 27 Apr 2020 4:18pm

Nick_BlueNRG wrote: ↑Thu 23 Apr 2020 12:29pm

Let the be a lesson to all the posters who kept on saying that our Debt didn't matter. You all know who you are.
I was one of them and still am. Nothing has changed. Our debt didn't matter before (unless the AFL wanted it to matter) and it's the same thing now. And if you want to know why ... over the past few years, North have done a great job eradicating their debt and have been more successful than us. And yet - for all that effort - they still had 5K LESS members than us in R1 of 2020. North is still way more likely to be punted out of Victoria before us.

Would I like the financial strength of Hawthorn or the other big clubs? Absolutely. But we don't - we stuffed that up when we moved from Waverley to Colonial (instead of the MCG) and then doubled-down with the Seaford disaster.

Whether you like it or not - debt is a way of life in AFL (like it is in broader society). Remember that for most club's boasting of their financial performance - there's only a handful that can survive on their own without AFL distribution.

At the end of the day - if the AFL wants most of the clubs to do something different or be located somewhere else then, they've always held that right. And they still do.
Very very different now, the AFL has a master now called a bank and the bank has administrator type control. And yes the AFL will still be largely in control as always, HOWEVER, if COVID-19 and the biggest recession since the great depression bites hard then we will start to see dramatic change. I'm guessing the following could be likely scenarios:

-A merger between two Melbourne clubs and remain in Melbourne or;
-Two merged clubs relocated to Tasmania.

Look beyond 2020 and through the prism of a long, deep and protracted recession. That is where the danger zone is. The way the AFL used to manage the clubs is the old way, they now have a new set of rules.

Getting through 2020 is potentially going to be the easy part."

by Secret Kiel » Tue 28 Apr 2020 10:44am

"I tend to agree, and I think it helps preserve membership, or rather minimise lost market. A merger would mean that two clubs are insolvent at around the same time and making it possible to package them up together for a relocation. Who knows, if clubs start to become insolvent it could just mean they are just killed off because the timing for starting up a team in Tasmania is also not viable.

And speaking of throwing good money after bad, this hub idea is batshit crazy. It is going to be an incredibly poor product and highly doubtful sponsors and advertisers are going to be happy about it. And the cost to run the hubs is going to be signsicant.

Isn't it a shame common sense doesn't prevail and they just aim for the 2021 season restart. Footy needs crowds to be a viable product."

[damienc]

Getting sick of all so-called Saints supporters hijacking every topic that appears on this forum with their diatribes of doom and gloom, so can I please ask that all of you who have given up all hope and predict that St Kilda FC will go out of existence to use this heading to vent your warped views, I'll even kick it off for you with some recent comments from the usual offenders.


With the greatest respect you are approaching this with the very same attitude as those you accuse and seek to label as so called Saints supporters.

Sticking your head in the sand and pretending everything is ok is not very helpful either.

In contrast to you I believe talking about the club's future, and indeed whether it has one, is a worthy topic particularly when no footy is being played.

The club has a lot of debt. It also needs more members.

Both of those talking points, in my view, are directly linked to our on field success. The fact that we haven't had any success for a very long time ( far too long) also doesn't help.

So we are facing significant challenges in the future whether we like it or not.

I would like to pose some other very specific talking points. They aren't points that I say I support, but worthy of discussion.

In fact it is a series of questions:

1) Can this footy club win a premiership with the current on field/off field personnel?

2) If the answer is yes, what is a reasonable timeline to achieve this success?

3) If the answer to Question 1 is no, do we need to merge with another club in order for that to happen?

4) Would that merger result in more members and less debt?

5) Are we being naive thinking we can go it alone and still be viable? Will this be the reality for other clubs not just ours?

Remember, these are discussion points not endorsements.

[Sanctorum]

Hey damienc, you're missing my point which is to ask people who comment on this forum to stick to the subject matter, because in many instances certain posters hijack a subject heading that has not the slightest bearing on what the original poster wrote and take it on a ride to the subject of whether or not St Kilda FC is going to survive the current crisis.

And no, I don't bury my head in the sand about our club's future, there are certainly many great challenges ahead, it is just that I happen to believe that the AFL will ride out the financial storm and retain all 18 clubs into the future. Others see things differently, that's fine, we'll find out in due course who is right!

[Secret Kiel]

You know you're right...are you a GT or RL type of man.

[Sanctorum]

You know you're right...are you a GT or RL type of man.

Neither SK, thought both had major deficiencies which cost the club dearly in terms of squandered opportunities to win multiple premierships with the lists both had at their disposal.

I'm more into the Jeans, Kennedy, Barassi, Hafey, Sheedy, Matthews, Malthouse, Clarkson style....but this is off-topic so I'd better move on and follow my own advice....and suggest you go to town on your firm conviction, expressed endlessly elsewhere on this forum, that the Saints are stuffed and the end is nigh!

[Secret Kiel]

...but seriosly, and to go to some of Damien's questions, we could struggle to be competitive on the field under the new administration type management. Not unless of coarse we are able to leverage of this current list of players which assumes we can afford to keep them together. If we are unable to do that and return to the bottom of the ladder and have a large debt and low cash flow then it really will be dire.

[Sanctorum]

...but seriosly, and to go to some of Damien's questions, we could struggle to be competitive on the field under the new administration type management. Not unless of coarse we are able to leverage of this current list of players which assumes we can afford to keep them together. If we are unable to do that and return to the bottom of the ladder and have a large debt and low cash flow then it really will be dire.

I don't doubt in the slightest that there are any number of scenarios that could eventuate post the 2020 pandemic, but consider it pointless to speculate about any of them when no one has the faintest clue what will actually happen right now, not even the AFL Commission is in a position to make predictions of the future, other than that they have firmly committed to maintaining a 18 team competition into the future.

What is the use of getting worked up about a dire future, all it does is spread misery and makes people feel lousy. Far better to hold fire until we know exactly what the new landscape looks like.

Can you imagine that Brett Ratten and the players are thinking along the lines that you and others have expressed, not likely, they're professionals and will keep their minds fully focused on the return of the competition in June or July, in the full knowledge that the moment they get back into action the media dollars will start to flow again and restore their livelihoods.

Now that goes against your ideas because from memory you are one of those who would rather see the 2020 season cancelled altogether. Well, mate, the players feel otherwise and I would rather throw my support behind them in their endeavour to get back to footy ASAP! The future will take of itself....

[desertsaint]

I would rather us go it alone and not win a flag with the current group than merge and maybe win one.
Our time will come, and even if it doesn't, in the bigger picture it is already here.
Being one of the oldest AFL clubs, one of just six to be a foundation club of both the vfa and vfl. Surviving more than a hundred and fifty odd years of competition. That is a great club. Flags are just a cherry on top of the very rich cake we get to eat every year. Sometimes that cake tastes a little poorer, some years a lot better, but its still a cake. Our cake.

[Secret Kiel]

I am aware that not all players are supportive of the hub idea, specifically the players partners and children.

The quality of the product is going to be very poor and the running costs are going to be signsicant, possibly more than normal.

Yes it's about the AFL getting access to media rights funds for this year but it's possibly about the AFL being paranoid about losing thier audience as much as anything else. Ironically the hub idea could be such a poor quality product that viewers stop watching en masse and if that happens I can see the scenario where advertisers pull ask for significant discounts or even pull thier accounts. And if advertisers do the same to the media rights networks then things could get ugly.

I can't help but think that the AFL may regret a few decisions in 2020.

[Sanctorum]

I am aware that not all players are supportive of the hub idea, specifically the players partners and children.

The quality of the product is going to be very poor and the running costs are going to be signsicant, possibly more than normal.

Yes it's about the AFL getting access to media rights funds for this year but it's possibly about the AFL being paranoid about losing thier audience as much as anything else. Ironically the hub idea could be such a poor quality product that viewers stop watching en masse and if that happens I can see the scenario where advertisers pull ask for significant discounts or even pull thier accounts. And if advertisers do the same to the media rights networks then things could get ugly.

I can't help but think that the AFL may regret a few decisions in 2020.

Why do you look at these issues with such negativity SK, I mean, you immediately seize on the reluctance of some players not embracing the hub proposal, when in reality there may be only relatively few players who decide to stay home.

And that's before there has even been a clear "hub proposal" to be decided on. For all we know there may only be 2 hubs, Melbourne is bound to be one which would mean there's every chance the Saints will not have to go interstate.

As for the "product" at venues without spectators, rest assured that the TV audiences will be huge and ratings very high.

Life's too short to wallow in misery, and footy in any form is something that will warm the cockles of most hearts - except yours maybe!

Finally, you "think that the AFL may regret a few decisions in 2020". OK Genius, given your obvious expertise, how about you spell out what exactly the AFL has done wrong this far, item by item, and what you believe they should have done, and then look into your crystal ball and reveal what your masterplan for the future of the AFL would be...

[Secret Kiel]

I think the TV audiences will initially be high as footy starved fans get a fix, but I'm predicting the product will become unwatchable after a couple of rounds. I watched about 15 minutes of the round 1 game between Richmond and Carlton and didn't watch anymore footy after that, including our game. No crowd = no product. I watch a lot of footy live at different levels and even at the games with less than 100 in the crowd there is some atmosphere that draws you in and makes you feel engaged and passionate. I reckon the players will be negatively impacted also which could make being separated from loved ones even harder.

The AFL could really damage it's product and especially if we have a second wave and have to return to restrictions for a protracted period beyond 2020. The financial loss due to money being wasted on the hubs and operational costs without revenue could set us back even further.

[Sanctorum]

I think the TV audiences will initially be high as footy starved fans get a fix, but I'm predicting the product will become unwatchable after a couple of rounds. I watched about 15 minutes of the round 1 game between Richmond and Carlton and didn't watch anymore footy after that, including our game. No crowd = no product. I watch a lot of footy live at different levels and even at the games with less than 100 in the crowd there is some atmosphere that draws you in and makes you feel engaged and passionate. I reckon the players will be negatively impacted also which could make being separated from loved ones even harder.

The AFL could really damage it's product and especially if we have a second wave and have to return to restrictions for a protracted period beyond 2020. The financial loss due to money being wasted on the hubs and operational costs without revenue could set us back even further.

I beg to differ about the attraction of AFL matches in empty stadiums but there will undoubtedly be some who share your views and not watch. However I can't quite work out how that improvised format will cause damage to the brand or product in any way whatsoever.

What you and others like-minded fail to understand is that the AFL has no choice - abandoning the 2020 season is not an option and would stand to cause infinitely greater damage to the immediate prospects of the code.

Are you really seriously suggesting that the AFL should vacate the TV marketplace this year, and risk losing an army of AFL supporters to those codes that can be watched on TV, especially in the fringe states of NSW and Queensland. No way, that ain't going to happen!

That sort of nonsense you're advocating is guaranteed to send the AFL broke and will ensure the very outcomes that you have been predicting.....the AFL know what they're doing, it is by a country mile the most successful and financially robust sporting code in the country and will prevail.

[Secret Kiel]

I'll be dumbfounded if punters aren't bored and uninterested by round 3. I can really see footy finals being played during the festive season being a smash hit too.

[tony74]

Our club is very safe whilst our President is there. Long arms and short pockets, completely the opposite to Lindsay.

[samuraisaint]

Hub is a stoopid idea.
Schools are closed all over the world - and where they are open, it is limited, like one day a week.
Pubs, venues, stadia closed.
No travel allowed.
Let's just get through this then get back to the footy - it's not even winter yet.

BUT if matches are played at Moorabbin - even without spectators - I would completely revise my opinion.

[saynta]

Our club is very safe whilst our President is there. Long arms and short pockets, completely the opposite to Lindsay.

That is good to hear.

[Sanctorum]

I'll be dumbfounded if punters aren't bored and uninterested by round 3. I can really see footy finals being played during the festive season being a smash hit too.

Get ready to be dumbstruck SK! And by the way, I have yet to receive a detailed response to two posts I made in response to your earlier comments on this topic:

"I beg to differ about the attraction of AFL matches in empty stadiums but there will undoubtedly be some who share your views and not watch. However I can't quite work out how that improvised format will cause damage to the brand or product in any way whatsoever.

What you and others like-minded fail to understand is that the AFL has no choice - abandoning the 2020 season is not an option and would stand to cause infinitely greater damage to the immediate prospects of the code.

Are you really seriously suggesting that the AFL should vacate the TV marketplace this year, and risk losing an army of AFL supporters to those codes that can be watched on TV, especially in the fringe states of NSW and Queensland. No way, that ain't going to happen!

That sort of nonsense you're advocating is guaranteed to send the AFL broke and will ensure the very outcomes that you have been predicting.....the AFL know what they're doing, it is by a country mile the most successful and financially robust sporting code in the country and will prevail.

The second one:

"Finally, you "think that the AFL may regret a few decisions in 2020". OK Genius, given your obvious expertise, how about you spell out what exactly the AFL has done wrong this far, item by item, and what you believe they should have done, and then look into your crystal ball and reveal what your masterplan for the future of the AFL would be...

Looking forward to hearing from you.....

[Secret Kiel]

I'll be dumbfounded if punters aren't bored and uninterested by round 3. I can really see footy finals being played during the festive season being a smash hit too.

Get ready to be dumbstruck SK! And by the way, I have yet to receive a detailed response to two posts I made in response to your earlier comments on this topic:

"I beg to differ about the attraction of AFL matches in empty stadiums but there will undoubtedly be some who share your views and not watch. However I can't quite work out how that improvised format will cause damage to the brand or product in any way whatsoever.

What you and others like-minded fail to understand is that the AFL has no choice - abandoning the 2020 season is not an option and would stand to cause infinitely greater damage to the immediate prospects of the code.

Are you really seriously suggesting that the AFL should vacate the TV marketplace this year, and risk losing an army of AFL supporters to those codes that can be watched on TV, especially in the fringe states of NSW and Queensland. No way, that ain't going to happen!

That sort of nonsense you're advocating is guaranteed to send the AFL broke and will ensure the very outcomes that you have been predicting.....the AFL know what they're doing, it is by a country mile the most successful and financially robust sporting code in the country and will prevail.

The second one:

"Finally, you "think that the AFL may regret a few decisions in 2020". OK Genius, given your obvious expertise, how about you spell out what exactly the AFL has done wrong this far, item by item, and what you believe they should have done, and then look into your crystal ball and reveal what your masterplan for the future of the AFL would be...

Looking forward to hearing from you.....

The game will be more boring than watching lawn bowls. There will be significant issues experienced that will continually require the game rules to be modified which will impact the ability of players to play at thier best which will be compounded by thier time in hibernation. Players with serious injuries will pose a significant issue for the game and the public health system. Team lists will continually be disrupted each week as players needing to leave the quarantine boundary of the hub and not being able to return until they have completed thier 14 day isolation and then there will be the opposite issue of bringing players back into the quarantine boundary. This will make it incredibly hard for coaches amoungst a long list of other prohibitive factors. So many teams could look like the B side most weeks. And then I can see the players who creatively put themselves on ice by feigning injury to be with loved ones and/or save thier bodies from being destroyed by playing games every 3 days and thus preserving themselves for the real competition to start in 2021.

It will be a putrid product.

[saintspremiers]

I'll be dumbfounded if punters aren't bored and uninterested by round 3. I can really see footy finals being played during the festive season being a smash hit too.

Get ready to be dumbstruck SK! And by the way, I have yet to receive a detailed response to two posts I made in response to your earlier comments on this topic:

"I beg to differ about the attraction of AFL matches in empty stadiums but there will undoubtedly be some who share your views and not watch. However I can't quite work out how that improvised format will cause damage to the brand or product in any way whatsoever.

What you and others like-minded fail to understand is that the AFL has no choice - abandoning the 2020 season is not an option and would stand to cause infinitely greater damage to the immediate prospects of the code.

Are you really seriously suggesting that the AFL should vacate the TV marketplace this year, and risk losing an army of AFL supporters to those codes that can be watched on TV, especially in the fringe states of NSW and Queensland. No way, that ain't going to happen!

That sort of nonsense you're advocating is guaranteed to send the AFL broke and will ensure the very outcomes that you have been predicting.....the AFL know what they're doing, it is by a country mile the most successful and financially robust sporting code in the country and will prevail.

The second one:

"Finally, you "think that the AFL may regret a few decisions in 2020". OK Genius, given your obvious expertise, how about you spell out what exactly the AFL has done wrong this far, item by item, and what you believe they should have done, and then look into your crystal ball and reveal what your masterplan for the future of the AFL would be...

Looking forward to hearing from you.....

The game will be more boring than watching lawn bowls. There will be significant issues experienced that will continually require the game rules to be modified which will impact the ability of players to play at thier best which will be compounded by thier time in hibernation. Players with serious injuries will pose a significant issue for the game and the public health system. Team lists will continually be disrupted each week as players needing to leave the quarantine boundary of the hub and not being able to return until they have completed thier 14 day isolation and then there will be the opposite issue of bringing players back into the quarantine boundary. This will make it incredibly hard for coaches amoungst a long list of other prohibitive factors. So many teams could look like the B side most weeks. And then I can see the players who creatively put themselves on ice by feigning injury to be with loved ones and/or save thier bodies from being destroyed by playing games every 3 days and thus preserving themselves for the real competition to start in 2021.

It will be a putrid product.

We don’t need quarantine hubs. That sort of thinking belonged 2 or 3 weeks ago when we weren’t on the path to eradicating the virus.

Only 12 COVID-19 Victorians are in hospital now.

I hate this moronic thinking of the AFL not using dynamic and up to date data.

Players could get tested before every game, plus temp checks. There are clearly plenty of test kits available- the Vic government wants to test 100,000 Victorian’s in 2 weeks!

In total, even if every AFL listed player was tested every week for 16 rounds, that’s only about 12,000 tests for the whole H&A season!

IF the testing could be done in 24 hours, the risk then is minuscule

[Secret Kiel]

I'll be dumbfounded if punters aren't bored and uninterested by round 3. I can really see footy finals being played during the festive season being a smash hit too.

Get ready to be dumbstruck SK! And by the way, I have yet to receive a detailed response to two posts I made in response to your earlier comments on this topic:

"I beg to differ about the attraction of AFL matches in empty stadiums but there will undoubtedly be some who share your views and not watch. However I can't quite work out how that improvised format will cause damage to the brand or product in any way whatsoever.

What you and others like-minded fail to understand is that the AFL has no choice - abandoning the 2020 season is not an option and would stand to cause infinitely greater damage to the immediate prospects of the code.

Are you really seriously suggesting that the AFL should vacate the TV marketplace this year, and risk losing an army of AFL supporters to those codes that can be watched on TV, especially in the fringe states of NSW and Queensland. No way, that ain't going to happen!

That sort of nonsense you're advocating is guaranteed to send the AFL broke and will ensure the very outcomes that you have been predicting.....the AFL know what they're doing, it is by a country mile the most successful and financially robust sporting code in the country and will prevail.

The second one:

"Finally, you "think that the AFL may regret a few decisions in 2020". OK Genius, given your obvious expertise, how about you spell out what exactly the AFL has done wrong this far, item by item, and what you believe they should have done, and then look into your crystal ball and reveal what your masterplan for the future of the AFL would be...

Looking forward to hearing from you.....

The game will be more boring than watching lawn bowls. There will be significant issues experienced that will continually require the game rules to be modified which will impact the ability of players to play at thier best which will be compounded by thier time in hibernation. Players with serious injuries will pose a significant issue for the game and the public health system. Team lists will continually be disrupted each week as players needing to leave the quarantine boundary of the hub and not being able to return until they have completed thier 14 day isolation and then there will be the opposite issue of bringing players back into the quarantine boundary. This will make it incredibly hard for coaches amoungst a long list of other prohibitive factors. So many teams could look like the B side most weeks. And then I can see the players who creatively put themselves on ice by feigning injury to be with loved ones and/or save thier bodies from being destroyed by playing games every 3 days and thus preserving themselves for the real competition to start in 2021.

It will be a putrid product.

We don’t need quarantine hubs. That sort of thinking belonged 2 or 3 weeks ago when we weren’t on the path to eradicating the virus.

Only 12 COVID-19 Victorians are in hospital now.

I hate this moronic thinking of the AFL not using dynamic and up to date data.

Players could get tested before every game, plus temp checks. There are clearly plenty of test kits available- the Vic government wants to test 100,000 Victorian’s in 2 weeks!

In total, even if every AFL listed player was tested every week for 16 rounds, that’s only about 12,000 tests for the whole H&A season!

IF the testing could be done in 24 hours, the risk then is minuscule

But what if a player is positive and roams freely about the club and staff and officials for a 24 hour period and those people become infected and roam through the community before the test results are known. A lot of infection can happen in 24 hours.

Then what happens?

Does the game shut down again?


Dunno SP, you can see how it is going to be a mess if the comp starts up and we get someone infected. And what is the financial implication if that happens? Have we wasted money on starting up the comp only to shutdown again and can't complete the comp and can't claim the media rights dollars? All we will have achieved is having wasted millions of dollars on a failed startup.

I've read that other footy codes in the EU have made the decision to cancel the season as they are getting spikes in inflections after the first wave.

I wonder if the AFL are thinking along these lines?

[samuraisaint]

We haven't got to winter yet - if the virus spikes, it will be then - and Victoria, the ACT and Tasmania will experience more positive cases of corona virus during the winter months than the other states and territory because they don't really get a winter (apart from southern NSW).
By mid-July things will be a lot clearer.

[magnifisaint]

St Kilda won’t fold. I’ll donate some bitcoin to keep them afloat.

[saynta]

We haven't got to winter yet - if the virus spikes, it will be then - and Victoria, the ACT and Tasmania will experience more positive cases of corona virus during the winter months than the other states and territory because they don't really get a winter (apart from southern NSW).
By mid-July things will be a lot clearer.

I'm willing to bet there will be no cases in the ACT come next month let alone in the middle of winter unless the virus comes in from interstate.

No addition cases last 5 days and only 6 since middle of April. ACT is currently doing better than everyone with no reason to believe that will change.

You could be right about Victoria though.

[Sanctorum]

A couple of excerpts from the memo sent by the AFL to the clubs on Monday:

"No decisions have been made and there are still a wide range of options available to the AFL, the players and the clubs in order to begin and complete the 2020 Toyota AFL premiership season. We will continue to prioritise the health and welfare of all AFL industry participants and their families and follow the advice from the Commonwealth and state and territory governments and their chief health officers."

"What we do know is that we will need to continue to be flexible and agile and may not end as we start if the rules change and the interstate border restrictions are lifted at some stage over the coming months."

Amidst all of the commentary on this forum and in the footy media we should take note that no firm decisions have been made so far let alone what will eventuate in the coming months, so everything that commentators and supporters say and write is pure speculation, so it is really too soon to get worked up about it.

Whilst a number of sporting bodies in the EU and elsewhere have pulled the plug on further play this season, there are also many that are committed to playing on.

If and when the competition resumes the quality of football is of secondary consideration, let's face it, many supporters enjoyed seeing the women play in the AFLW. And so what if teams are going to field B list players to replace some of the superstars who opt out, it will still be good to see some of our fringe players strut their stuff because those blokes will be super keen to get the opportunity to prove their worth.

We need to remember that although the 2020 season has been compromised, life will be back to normal in 2021 and there will be hundreds of players that will want to make sure they remain employed.

Beggars can't be choosers and I will be delighted to see footy back on the big screen in whatever form!!

If whingeing supporters are that lame about the quality of footy simply flick channels, there are lots of other ways to get your blood pumping....like Championship Darts, snooker, ski jumping or lawn bowls. I quite enjoyed playing marbles when I was at primary school in the 40s, it's a wonder it hasn't made a comeback!

[Secret Kiel]

My takeaway from the memo is the season might start, or it might not, if it does start, the rules may need to constantly change.

Big risks in starting up, mainly the big cost on a failed startup and possibly the media rights money still not being payable.