Trade-Draft 2021 Discussion

[saynta]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/ ... 48e89aec11

"More than 50 Victorian draft prospect hit the track in front of club recruiters. Who caught the eye? Find out who impressed and the latest player measurements.
Dan Batten
AFL draft players participate in a skills session coordinated by AFL Academy Coach Tarkyn Lockyer at Trevor Barker Oval in Sandringham
AFL News.

Club recruiters flocked to Sandringham to catch a final glimpse of Victorian prospects in action ahead of next Wednesday’s AFL Draft.

More than 50 of the best Victorian products took part in the training session run by AFL Academy coach and former Collingwood player Tarkyn Lockyer at Trevor Barker Oval, with inclement weather making things difficult for prospects at stages.

It did not feature any competitive work, but it gave clubs a firm reminder of the attributes that make these promising talents among the best across the country.

Draft hopefuls from Victorian metropolitan areas also had their measurements taking for the first time since the pre-season, with top-five prospects Finn Callaghan and Sam Darcy among those to develop significantly."

[Impatient Sainter]

Saynta would you mind posting the HS Mock Draft out today? Thanks...

[Impatient Sainter]

Saynta would you mind posting the HS Mock Draft out today? Thanks...

[saynta]

Saynta would you mind posting the HS Mock Draft out today? Thanks...

check your pm in box

[minneapolis]

So who does the Hun have the Saints pick at 11?

[Impatient Sainter]

So who does the Hun have the Saints pick at 11?

11. St Kilda
Mac Andrew (Dandenong Stingrays)
Ruckman, 201cm, 74kg

Below is a recruiters notes from early 2021 has Sinn, Sonsie & Chesser rated in the top 6. I wouldnt be unhappy with any of them, although Chesser & Sinn portray more as flankers/wingman from this years footage. It wouldnt surprise if both have previously played through the midfield its just they had their injury issues this year and the Dragons were chocked full of talent.
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/a-r ... 599m6.html

[Gershwin]

If we get Andrew in Round 1, then I would be keen for a couple of mids later on. Owen and Windhager are attractive because of the discount but I would prefer not to go into debt for 2022 draft (particularly if we are after BKing.)
If we take a mid in Round 1, perhaps we should be looking at a young tall somewhere along the line. Do we really need 3 mids with our first 3 picks?

[Ghost Like]

If we get Andrew in Round 1, then I would be keen for a couple of mids later on. Owen and Windhager are attractive because of the discount but I would prefer not to go into debt for 2022 draft (particularly if we are after BKing.)
If we take a mid in Round 1, perhaps we should be looking at a young tall somewhere along the line. Do we really need 3 mids with our first 3 picks?

This is the chicken or the egg scenario we've all discussed. The draft should always be about best available. I suspect Owens & Windhager should be infinitely better value than our 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th picks available to us in 2021. I think it would be foolish to select a speculative tall when the opportunity is there to add two genuine round two (at least) players to our list.
There are no guarantees on Ben King so let us draft best available this year.

[Impatient Sainter]

https://www.afl.com.au/news/688195/how- ... nomination

Four NGA's nominated Owens, Windhager, Peris & Kyle. Im guessing if Peris & Kyle are not taken in the National Draft they will be placed on the Cat B Rookie list, which would be a great result for the club.

[ace]

If we get Andrew in Round 1, then I would be keen for a couple of mids later on. Owen and Windhager are attractive because of the discount but I would prefer not to go into debt for 2022 draft (particularly if we are after BKing.)
If we take a mid in Round 1, perhaps we should be looking at a young tall somewhere along the line. Do we really need 3 mids with our first 3 picks?

St Kilda won't be needing 2022 second, third or fourth rounder if they go after Ben King.
They will need 2002 first rounder and more from 2023.
Remember you have a choice to trade away your first rounder OR trade away any number of you later picks BUT you can't do both.

[Impatient Sainter]

An interesting concept Josh Sinn has done a Top 10 phamtom draft. Some of his insight is very good, he didnt comnent on Daicos? I wonder if clubs have ever asked players or NAB/ state coaches to do the same?

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/11/18/ ... om-top-10/

[Ghost Like]

Today's Herald Sun has our first pick down to 3 players, Wanganeen-Milera, Erasmus & Johnson.

Cal Twomey is hinting Sinn as being in the mix.

Very interesting that Sinn puts Mac Andrew at 5, being very similar to Darcy.

All that said, if Mac Andrew is available at our pick I don't think we can afford to overlook him. We just need to keep our fingers crossed for our NGAs to make it through the Top 20.

[Gershwin]

If we get Andrew in Round 1, then I would be keen for a couple of mids later on. Owen and Windhager are attractive because of the discount but I would prefer not to go into debt for 2022 draft (particularly if we are after BKing.)
If we take a mid in Round 1, perhaps we should be looking at a young tall somewhere along the line. Do we really need 3 mids with our first 3 picks?

St Kilda won't be needing 2022 second, third or fourth rounder if they go after Ben King.
They will need 2002 first rounder and more from 2023.
Remember you have a choice to trade away your first rounder OR trade away any number of you later picks BUT you can't do both.

Thanks for this info. Do you think 2022 & 2023 1st rounders will get the job done for Ben King?

[ace]

If we get Andrew in Round 1, then I would be keen for a couple of mids later on. Owen and Windhager are attractive because of the discount but I would prefer not to go into debt for 2022 draft (particularly if we are after BKing.)
If we take a mid in Round 1, perhaps we should be looking at a young tall somewhere along the line. Do we really need 3 mids with our first 3 picks?

St Kilda won't be needing 2022 second, third or fourth rounder if they go after Ben King.
They will need 2002 first rounder and more from 2023.
Remember you have a choice to trade away your first rounder OR trade away any number of you later picks BUT you can't do both.

Thanks for this info. Do you think 2022 & 2023 1st rounders will get the job done for Ben King?

Two pick late teens would not.
Two pick ones would be over the top.
It all depends where St Kilda finish on the ladder next year.

[saynta]

From the hun,

"St Kilda

Draft picks: 9, 62, 66, 67, 85

List needs: Key defenders, midfield polish, goalkicking small forwards, key forward depth

Who could be available at first pick: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Neil Erasmus, Matthew Johnson

Could be in the mix after that: Marcus Windhager, Michito Owens, Jack Peris, Josiah Kyle (all NGA)

St Kilda has two Next Generation Academy prospects, Windhager and Owens, who should be taken inside the top 40, despite limited exposure for varying reasons. But Saints fans will be crossing their fingers and toes that the pair aren’t snaffled by a rival club inside the top 20, with NGA Academy bids unprotected in this draft range. Powerful and versatile midfielder-forward Windhager appeared the most likely to be taken in the first round but he has suffered a recent back injury, while Owens came with a rush mid-year and has more growth left in him as a tall midfielder. Matched bids could force the Saints into a draft points deficit with their limited picks, but it is unlikely to be significant. The elite footskills of Wanganeen-Milera would address a glaring need at the club’s first pick, a side short of exponents of the ‘money’ kick and midfield polish. The wingman has some admirers in the top 10 and some believe he will be the second South Australian taken on draft night. It might be too early for the Saints to consider a key defender, but Erasmus and Johnson are tall midfielders who could be on the offer at their first selection.

November latest: Talk was abuzz of Sinn being linked to the Saints after the Victorian draft day, where it was revealed he had added six kilograms to his frame. After shooting up further to 191cm, Saints fans will have their hearts in their mouths as to whether Owens will attract a top-20 bid. Could Essendon pounce as early as 11 (pending bids)? However, the most likely outcome is that a bid falls in the second round. Fellow NGA product Windhager, on the other hand, is expected to have his name called in the second-third round range.
Campbell Chesser, right, could be one of the steals of draft night. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos

[Impatient Sainter]

No Owens mentioned in 26-50 phantom, but there will be so good players available late in the draft if the club miss out on an NGA.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/draft/ ... 2074fd278a

[skeptic]

From the hun,

"St Kilda

Draft picks: 9, 62, 66, 67, 85

List needs: Key defenders, midfield polish, goalkicking small forwards, key forward depth

Who could be available at first pick: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Neil Erasmus, Matthew Johnson

Could be in the mix after that: Marcus Windhager, Michito Owens, Jack Peris, Josiah Kyle (all NGA)

St Kilda has two Next Generation Academy prospects, Windhager and Owens, who should be taken inside the top 40, despite limited exposure for varying reasons. But Saints fans will be crossing their fingers and toes that the pair aren’t snaffled by a rival club inside the top 20, with NGA Academy bids unprotected in this draft range. Powerful and versatile midfielder-forward Windhager appeared the most likely to be taken in the first round but he has suffered a recent back injury, while Owens came with a rush mid-year and has more growth left in him as a tall midfielder. Matched bids could force the Saints into a draft points deficit with their limited picks, but it is unlikely to be significant. The elite footskills of Wanganeen-Milera would address a glaring need at the club’s first pick, a side short of exponents of the ‘money’ kick and midfield polish. The wingman has some admirers in the top 10 and some believe he will be the second South Australian taken on draft night. It might be too early for the Saints to consider a key defender, but Erasmus and Johnson are tall midfielders who could be on the offer at their first selection.

November latest: Talk was abuzz of Sinn being linked to the Saints after the Victorian draft day, where it was revealed he had added six kilograms to his frame. After shooting up further to 191cm, Saints fans will have their hearts in their mouths as to whether Owens will attract a top-20 bid. Could Essendon pounce as early as 11 (pending bids)? However, the most likely outcome is that a bid falls in the second round. Fellow NGA product Windhager, on the other hand, is expected to have his name called in the second-third round range.
Campbell Chesser, right, could be one of the steals of draft night. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos

[Ghost Like]

From the hun,

"St Kilda

Draft picks: 9, 62, 66, 67, 85

List needs: Key defenders, midfield polish, goalkicking small forwards, key forward depth

Who could be available at first pick: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Neil Erasmus, Matthew Johnson

Could be in the mix after that: Marcus Windhager, Michito Owens, Jack Peris, Josiah Kyle (all NGA)

St Kilda has two Next Generation Academy prospects, Windhager and Owens, who should be taken inside the top 40, despite limited exposure for varying reasons. But Saints fans will be crossing their fingers and toes that the pair aren’t snaffled by a rival club inside the top 20, with NGA Academy bids unprotected in this draft range. Powerful and versatile midfielder-forward Windhager appeared the most likely to be taken in the first round but he has suffered a recent back injury, while Owens came with a rush mid-year and has more growth left in him as a tall midfielder. Matched bids could force the Saints into a draft points deficit with their limited picks, but it is unlikely to be significant. The elite footskills of Wanganeen-Milera would address a glaring need at the club’s first pick, a side short of exponents of the ‘money’ kick and midfield polish. The wingman has some admirers in the top 10 and some believe he will be the second South Australian taken on draft night. It might be too early for the Saints to consider a key defender, but Erasmus and Johnson are tall midfielders who could be on the offer at their first selection.

November latest: Talk was abuzz of Sinn being linked to the Saints after the Victorian draft day, where it was revealed he had added six kilograms to his frame. After shooting up further to 191cm, Saints fans will have their hearts in their mouths as to whether Owens will attract a top-20 bid. Could Essendon pounce as early as 11 (pending bids)? However, the most likely outcome is that a bid falls in the second round. Fellow NGA product Windhager, on the other hand, is expected to have his name called in the second-third round range.
Campbell Chesser, right, could be one of the steals of draft night. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos

Yes, I had a double take on that one. Goal kicking small forwards we seem to be OK with. I cannot see us using our first pick in search of key forward DEPTH.

Keep it simple, best available regardless of position.

[skeptic]

From the hun,

"St Kilda

Draft picks: 9, 62, 66, 67, 85

List needs: Key defenders, midfield polish, goalkicking small forwards, key forward depth

Who could be available at first pick: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Neil Erasmus, Matthew Johnson

Could be in the mix after that: Marcus Windhager, Michito Owens, Jack Peris, Josiah Kyle (all NGA)

St Kilda has two Next Generation Academy prospects, Windhager and Owens, who should be taken inside the top 40, despite limited exposure for varying reasons. But Saints fans will be crossing their fingers and toes that the pair aren’t snaffled by a rival club inside the top 20, with NGA Academy bids unprotected in this draft range. Powerful and versatile midfielder-forward Windhager appeared the most likely to be taken in the first round but he has suffered a recent back injury, while Owens came with a rush mid-year and has more growth left in him as a tall midfielder. Matched bids could force the Saints into a draft points deficit with their limited picks, but it is unlikely to be significant. The elite footskills of Wanganeen-Milera would address a glaring need at the club’s first pick, a side short of exponents of the ‘money’ kick and midfield polish. The wingman has some admirers in the top 10 and some believe he will be the second South Australian taken on draft night. It might be too early for the Saints to consider a key defender, but Erasmus and Johnson are tall midfielders who could be on the offer at their first selection.

November latest: Talk was abuzz of Sinn being linked to the Saints after the Victorian draft day, where it was revealed he had added six kilograms to his frame. After shooting up further to 191cm, Saints fans will have their hearts in their mouths as to whether Owens will attract a top-20 bid. Could Essendon pounce as early as 11 (pending bids)? However, the most likely outcome is that a bid falls in the second round. Fellow NGA product Windhager, on the other hand, is expected to have his name called in the second-third round range.
Campbell Chesser, right, could be one of the steals of draft night. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos

Yes, I had a double take on that one. Goal kicking small forwards we seem to be OK with. I cannot see us using our first pick in search of key forward DEPTH.

Keep it simple, best available regardless of position.

Butler, Higgins, Long and Kent... Lonie just cut, and a plethora of mids including Gresh that could rest in that role

King, Membrey, Marshall, Ryder, Battle, Cooper and Wood

I actually think it’s pbly the most over resourced part of our list so to speak even with Battle apparently set to spend more time down back

[Ghost Like]

From the hun,

"St Kilda

Draft picks: 9, 62, 66, 67, 85

List needs: Key defenders, midfield polish, goalkicking small forwards, key forward depth

Who could be available at first pick: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Neil Erasmus, Matthew Johnson

Could be in the mix after that: Marcus Windhager, Michito Owens, Jack Peris, Josiah Kyle (all NGA)

St Kilda has two Next Generation Academy prospects, Windhager and Owens, who should be taken inside the top 40, despite limited exposure for varying reasons. But Saints fans will be crossing their fingers and toes that the pair aren’t snaffled by a rival club inside the top 20, with NGA Academy bids unprotected in this draft range. Powerful and versatile midfielder-forward Windhager appeared the most likely to be taken in the first round but he has suffered a recent back injury, while Owens came with a rush mid-year and has more growth left in him as a tall midfielder. Matched bids could force the Saints into a draft points deficit with their limited picks, but it is unlikely to be significant. The elite footskills of Wanganeen-Milera would address a glaring need at the club’s first pick, a side short of exponents of the ‘money’ kick and midfield polish. The wingman has some admirers in the top 10 and some believe he will be the second South Australian taken on draft night. It might be too early for the Saints to consider a key defender, but Erasmus and Johnson are tall midfielders who could be on the offer at their first selection.

November latest: Talk was abuzz of Sinn being linked to the Saints after the Victorian draft day, where it was revealed he had added six kilograms to his frame. After shooting up further to 191cm, Saints fans will have their hearts in their mouths as to whether Owens will attract a top-20 bid. Could Essendon pounce as early as 11 (pending bids)? However, the most likely outcome is that a bid falls in the second round. Fellow NGA product Windhager, on the other hand, is expected to have his name called in the second-third round range.
Campbell Chesser, right, could be one of the steals of draft night. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos

Yes, I had a double take on that one. Goal kicking small forwards we seem to be OK with. I cannot see us using our first pick in search of key forward DEPTH.

Keep it simple, best available regardless of position.

Butler, Higgins, Long and Kent... Lonie just cut, and a plethora of mids including Gresh that could rest in that role

King, Membrey, Marshall, Ryder, Battle, Cooper and Wood

I actually think it’s pbly the most over resourced part of our list so to speak even with Battle apparently set to spend more time down back

Add Allison to that who they are also playing as a tall defender, as part of his development.

[ace]

How did St Kilda end up with pick 55 ?

[ace]

SSSSHHHHH


Don't anyone mention that back on 12 November St Kilda did a deal with Collingwood.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/687303/sain ... -pick-swap

Collingwood's 2021 pick 55 for the 2022 4th round pick St Kilda was holding that was tied to Adelaide.
I think Collingwood was a tad generous as before the draft actually takes place the fourth round usually starts picks 55 and then moves back as the AFL awards free agent compensation picks.
OK Adelaide will finish near the bottom in 20222 and get an early 4th rounder but thank you Collingwood.

I could find it on the St Kilda website but then I still haven't seen them announce Wilkie's upgrade to the senior list.

Pick 55 comes with 207 points attached but that number will increase on the night.

As it stands today, picks 9, 55, 62, 66, 67, 85 are activated.

[ace]

Cal Twomey's October rankings out
https://www.afl.com.au/news/685788/cal- ... er-ranking

He has Windhager at 29 and Owens at 30.
After 197 point discounts for each St Kilda would need 456 points for Windhager and 432 points for Owens = total
At present St Kilda has picks 62, 66 & 67 in the points presently worth 123, 80, 69 points total = 272 points.
Each St Kilda pick will gain roughly 12 points for every pick used by Collingwood and Bulldogs to get Daicos and Darcy.
If my expectation that both North Melbourne and Greater Western Sydney will not enforce the integrity of the draft (se my next post) leaving Gold Coast to do the right thing then one will require 1788 points and the other 1628 points to match.

Collingwood presently has picks 36, 38, 40, 46, 48, 55, 58 worth 502, 465, 429, 331, 302, 207, 170 points
If Gold Coast call Daicos at pick 3 Collingwood would use picks 36, 38, 40, 46 and have 241 points remain on pick 48.
The entire draft order would move places to fill in the gaps.
When pick 46 remainder is placed it will slot in at pick 53 so picks after that will be demoted by 1 place.
St Kilda picks would now be 10, 59, 63, 64

Bulldogs presently have picks 23, 43, 44, 45, 52 in the points.
Collingwood's move would reorder Bulldogs to 24, 41, 42, 43, 48 worth 785, 412, 395, 378, 302 points
If Gold Coast call Darcy at pick 4 Bulldogs would use picks 24, 41, 42 and have 342 points remain on pick 43.
The entire draft order would move places to fill in the gaps.
When pick 43 remainder is placed it will slot in at pick 46 so picks after that will be demoted by 1 place.

St Kilda picks would now be 11, 57, 61, 62 the last 3 worth 182, 135 & 123 points = total 440 points.
That is just not enough to match Windhager requiring 456 points.
The remaining 16 points would be stripped from St Kilda's 2022 second round pick
Then Owens would increase the deficit to 448 points off St Kilda's second round pick.

This likely deficit requiring the 2022 round pick that meant St Kilda could not use that pick in any pick swaps for Xerri.

North has made it pretty clear they will give their pick at No1 the $10,000 AFL bonus and the honour of being pick No1.
GWS has previous form for ignoring draft integrity, on one occasion even allowing Collingwood an effective bonus late first round pick.
Collingwood were spared the need to match and so used their next pick immediately after GWS to get a different player then they matched when another club called their player.

Now lets rerun that with St Kilda now got pick 55 and Collingwood without it.

Cal Twomey's October rankings out
https://www.afl.com.au/news/685788/cal- ... er-ranking

He has Windhager at 29 and Owens at 30.
After 197 point discounts for each St Kilda would need 456 points for Windhager and 432 points for Owens = total
At present St Kilda has picks 55, 62, 66 & 67 in the points presently worth 207, 123, 80, 69 points total = 479 points.
Each St Kilda pick will gain roughly 12 points for every pick used by Collingwood and Bulldogs to get Daicos and Darcy.
If my expectation that both North Melbourne and Greater Western Sydney will not enforce the integrity of the draft (see earlier post) leaving Gold Coast to do the right thing then one will require 1788 points and the other 1628 points to match.

Collingwood presently has picks 36, 38, 40, 46, 48, 58 worth 502, 465, 429, 331, 302, 170 points
If Gold Coast call Daicos at pick 3 Collingwood would use picks 36, 38, 40, 46 and have 241 points remain on pick 48.
The entire draft order would move places to fill in the gaps.
When pick 46 remainder is placed it will slot in at pick 53 so picks after that will be demoted by 1 place.
St Kilda picks would now be 10, 51, 59, 63, 64

Bulldogs presently have picks 23, 43, 44, 45, 52 in the points.
Collingwood's move would reorder Bulldogs to 24, 41, 42, 43, 48 worth 785, 412, 395, 378, 302 points
If Gold Coast call Darcy at pick 4 Bulldogs would use picks 24, 41, 42 and have 342 points remain on pick 43.
The entire draft order would move places to fill in the gaps.
When pick 43 remainder is placed it will slot in at pick 46 so picks after that will be demoted by 1 place.

St Kilda picks would now be 11, 49, 57, 61, 62 the last 4 worth 287, 182, 135 & 123 points = total 727 points.
That is enough to match Windhager requiring 456 points.
It would mean picks 49 and 57 being used with a remainder of 13 points
St Kilda would then have picks 60, 61 and 73 worth 146, 135, 9 = 290 points

Then Owens at pick 30 would require 432 points.

That would leave St Kilda with a deficit of 142 points to be stripped from their 2022 2nd round pick, a demotion of roughly 7 places.

[ace]

I know that Owens is now rated ahead of Windhager by many commentators but what this shows is that St Kilda MAY need to go into deficit on their 2002 2nd rounder.
BUT that had one at pick 29 and the other at 30 producing a deficit of 142 points.
Slip those picks to 32 and 33, the deficit becomes 7 points.
So if St Kilda is lucky and the average pick location for the 2 players is around 33 then 2022 2nd rounder pick may be undamaged.

This move to get pick 55 is good because it leaves all St Kilda's 2022 draft picks intact, at least ahead of the draft.

[ace]

Collingwood had 2,406 points collected in late picks.
Just enough to cover Daicos being called by North at pick no1.

But North's big mouths committing to Horne hyphen Francis at No1 told Collingwood they only needed 2,012 points if Daicos was called at pick no2.
They could trade away 394 points and still get Daicos.
They traded 207 of those points to St Kilda for a 2022 4th rounder attached to Adelaide.
The don't even need the 170 points attached to pick 58.
There is a reason North is at the bottom of the ladder = arrogant stupidity