gringo wrote:There isn't a formula. The Tigers are still building and could still have a moment of challenging in the next few years. Their years of ninth were on the back of poor recruiting when they were down. The Bulldogs have recruited exceptionally well in the last few years and look on the up with out tanking. Collingwood too. Carlton have been on the bottom of the ladder, recruited badly went up a bit and have fallen again. North went down have gone up but seem to have been unlucky in recruiting solid players rather than stars. Melbourne have had access to so many high picks they should be playing in the next 4 premierships on the logic that you take your place at the bottom for a few years and all comes good. Geelong has not bottomed out yet continues to pull out quality draft picks. Sydney rebuilt there list with hardly a blip. If there was a perfect formula for success everyone would follow it. For our time at the bottom we ended up with a few years getting guys like Daniel Wolfe etc then all of a sudden hit a couple of great recruiting years and we were able to build a list around guys like Dal, Riewoldt, Joey etc.We are not going to finish above ninth even if everything goes right we will get a quality player and if its a Bontempelli type pick we will possibly be better off. Sometimes there is less pressure from pick 4+ that allows you to get a Troy menzel, Stringer or Bontempelli who has talent but question marks.
Agree with much of that and totally agree about timing and being lucky with the draft pool available at the time
These drafts now, unlike those of recent years for both GC/GWS picks, are at least less compromised.
Regardless, you still have to pick welll I back our recruiting team - it doesn't matter what draft you get
Point here though is what choice/pick you actually end up with and that can be useful in drafting OR in trades so it has some value
I think Geelong/Sydney are poor examples for not bottoming outand most know why
Collingwood bottomed for a short period few years back and did well with Pendlebury, Thomas etc and won a flag
IMO in our current cycle we need greater options that give us the best chance to snare elite talent (midfield too!) if that's Parish this year then yes please - not interested in finishing 9th and hoping we get lucky after then with another Dal Santo at 13....
There's a reason the top handful kids in the country are ranked accordingly - we want at least one of these over the next 2 years IMHO, start the process of getting games into them and manage retirement of ageing champs which is undoubtedly coming...