So where are we at

[Con Gorozidis]

Our next five games include:

Dees: win (85%)
Blues: a chance (35%)
Hawks: slight chance (30%)
Eagles: no chance (20%)
Swines: very difficult but winable. (50%)

Hopefully we will win the first, jag one of the next two and beat the Swines at home which will see us 5-4. I'd take that.

3 from the next 5 i will take happily. ill be ecstatic in fact.
2 ill be very happy.
1 ill be neutral (most likely outcome)
0 and ill be gutted.

[hungry for a premiership]

Moods wrote:

if we lost it anywhere last night it was our young blokes. For the betterment of our club we have to keep playing them though. Many of the mistakes that were made through lack of composure were the young guys. Newnes gave away a couple of goals through costly turnovers in the middle of the ground.

I thought the opposite was in fact the case, that it was critical mistakes by the senior players at crucial times, eg. milne not passing to Stanley in goalsquare, Milne kicking it over Milera's head, Kosi handball to goalsqaure rather than set shot, along with a lot of missed targets by usually good users like BJ and Hayes, that cost us most. You expect the kids to make a few errors, but not the experienced soldiers.


TheRedeemer wrote:

Umpires were a non-factor last night and that being said I thought the game was actually quite entertaining?

Have to disagree there. Thought it was very clear that Fremantle got the rub of the umpiring green last night. It's not just the amount of frees, it's the context in which the frees were paid. There was gross inconsistincy in the umpiring, with tiggy-touchwood frees being paid against us and blatant infringements of the same rule not being paid for us. Also, there was gross inconsistency with the calling of the 50m penalty, and we came out on the wrong side of that inconsistency. The umps like Ross Lyon, I reckon.

Give Milne a few more weeks at least before writing him off.

Nah, after 10 years of 1st class service and a continual ability to bounce back against the odds, I'm ready to write him off after one week.


SaintPav wrote:

The way Freo were able to go through the middle after having so many numbers back made us look slow. That is enough evidence for me that we are not up to it. Ross also gave other teams a blue print on how to beat us. I can't see us winning more than 11 games.

I don't think we looked slow at all. We look the quickest we've looked in years. Those counter-punch, on-the-break goals that Freo scored last night were exactly the sort of goals that we used to score against everyone else. It wasn't foot speed, it was related to structure and game-plan. The way Freo beat us looked exactly the same as how we used to beat everyone else; stick with the opposition, absorb their pressure and don't get blown away even when you're getting beaten, counterpunch when the oppurtunity arises and build a small lead, then hold onto that lead through more dire defending and counterpunching.

Ross didn't give a blue-print to other clubs on how to beat us, he just knew how to beat us because he intimately knows our players and after only 4 games under SW those players a still playing mostly the way that Ross taught them to play, instead of the way Watters is teaching them to play. Structurally and game-plan wise, we were not beaten last night. More inside 50's, more time in attacking half, more scoring shots. Watters was definately not out-coached by Lyon. We main reason we lost is not because of a deficient game-plan or a list that is "not up to it," but because we didn't execute when shooting for goal, and Freo did.

[hungry for a premiership]

IMHFO, this is exaclty where we are at:

Whilst we remain competitive, a premiership this year is out of our range, therefore our main focus is on building a team that will be capable of winning a premiership in 3-5 years. Faced as we are with a list that has a very strong but ageing top six, a fairly solid middle tier, and then nothing, SW and the club decided, before the season even started, that the best way to build that next potential premiership team, in 3-5 years time, is to "rebuild-on-the-run" alaSydney Swans, just as cwrcyn advocated:

The best approach is keep playing as competitively as possible with a strong core of quality senior players leading the way for a the new group, ensuring they learn good habits and understand the level of intensity that is required.

This year, we're looking at a finish of around 7th-12th, but so long as we're out of premiership contention, it doesn't really matter where we finish on the ladder this year. What matters this year is that the nucleus of that next core group is formed and becomes competitive. If a solid new group of young/youngish players comes on well throughout the year then results will take care of themselves and we'll probably sneak into the finals. Best case scenario everything goes like a well-oiled machine and we click toward years' end and make a semi-final, worst case scenario we have a bad run of injuries to senior players and a few scandals and finish 13th.



The big question about "where we are at" is not "how will we go this year?" but "Are we going to be capable of building that next premiership team in 3-5 years time around the core of the current team, or are we facing a major rebuild that will see us become non-competitive for a time before finally rising again in 6-9 years?"

In order for Watters plan to be successful and to build a team capable of challenging in 3-5 years time, we are going to need:

1. THE CORE

- Probably all of Roo, Koz, BJ, Dal, Monty and Fish to STILL be firing and producing week after week at over 30 years of age.

2. THE MID-TIER

- A good 3-5 of our current younger middle tier players will need to develop into genuine A-Graders as they enter their prime - Gilbert, Gwilt, McEvoy, Steven, Armitage, Geary, Polo, Ray.

- The older middle-tier will need to hold its form and not drop away before replacements are developed - Jones, Dempster, Schneider, Gram, Peake, Clarke.

3. THE NEW GROUP

-We will need a new group of both mid-tier and A-graders to be found, developed, blended, ripened, and brought to a peak - Milera, Simpkin, Ledger, Cripps, Newnes, Stanley, Saad, Ross, Winmar, Wilkes, Markworth, Siposs, + future draft picks.


The BIG QUESTION MARKS about this plan are:

1.) Will our new group be good enough and will it develop quickly enough?
2.) Can the core group maintain its competitiveness and hang around for long enough to enable the coinciding of excellent form between the two groups?

It's going to be a very, very close thing, with the current core past it's peak and approaching the zenith and with the sun barely rising in the metaphorical dawn of the life of the new group.


I have confidence in the new kids and the academy, so for me IT ALL COMES DOWN TO HOW LONG THE CURRENT CORE CAN KEEP GOING. If they can do it for another 3-4 years, then we're currently in great shape, but if they've only got this year and next year left in them, then we're currently approaching a cliff.....

[meher baba]

I simply don't agree with most on this thread. We have a new coach who has significantly changed our style. We have several important, experienced players out of the team, but who will be back soon. We're playing a pretty impressive style of footy. Why did we lose on Friday? Not because we were outplayed in the general run of play, but because we made some errors at critical times and perhaps because of some dodgy umpiring calls.

It's still all in the process of coming together. It's not quite time to throw in the towel.

The standard of our play and the level of effort across all members of the team are way above what we saw this time last year.

Yes, we are not as good a team ATM as the Blues or WCE and perhaps the Hawks, Cats and Pies. But we're not as bad as all that. Those superior teams are still worried about their upcoming games against us, never mind about that.

I didn't agree with much of what p66 said, but I do agree that we don't need to play more kids or tank for draft picks.

On the whole, I find myself once most in agreement with saunter K Go girl!

As for the rest of you. Call yourself supporters!! Perhaps we will end up cactus, but surely it isnt done and dusted just yet!! There were no doubt a lot of Cats supporters talking this way a year ago...

[plugger66]

I simply don't agree with most on this thread. We have a new coach who has significantly changed our style. We have several important, experienced players out of the team, but who will be back soon. We're playing a pretty impressive style of footy. Why did we lose on Friday? Not because we were outplayed in the general run of play, but because we made some errors at critical times and perhaps because of some dodgy umpiring calls.

It's still all in the process of coming together. It's not quite time to throw in the towel.

The standard of our play and the level of effort across all members of the team are way above what we saw this time last year.

Yes, we are not as good a team ATM as the Blues or WCE and perhaps the Hawks, Cats and Pies. But we're not as bad as all that. Those superior teams are still worried about their upcoming games against us, never mind about that.

I didn't agree with much of what p66 said, but I do agree that we don't need to play more kids or tank for draft picks.

On the whole, I find myself once most in agreement with saunter K Go girl!

As for the rest of you. Call yourself supporters!! Perhaps we will end up cactus, but surely it isnt done and dusted just yet!! There were no doubt a lot of Cats supporters talking this way a year ago...

Taking it pretty personally by suggesting people arent real supporters if they dont think we have a shot this year. i can only talk for myself but I am a social club member and obviously a normal member through my AFL package and get to as many games as i can. I support the team every game and on the day of the game somehow think we can win whoever we play. It is illogical sometimes though. I yell and scream and get frustrated like most supporters but to then have an opinion that our time is up surely still makes me a good supporter. I am just looking at it logically on who we have played and who has beaten us. More will be revealed in 5 weeks. I also dont go along with the changing of the game plan being some of the problem. Most of our issues are from poor decision making from the same players and poor skills from the same players. That will not change.

As for Geelong they were coming off clearly finishing second in the home and away season of 2010 where as we are coming off clearly finishing 6th and 5 games off 4th in the home and away season of 2011. Hardly similar circumstances. And they had the small matter of actually winning on the final day compared to our heart breaking loses.

[VODM]

Does our forward line function well enough as it is? A while ago we had the likes of G-Train and Hamill there - they attracted the best 2 defenders leaving Nick and Kosi with the lesser lights. Now they get the best and the oposition really only have to worry about Stanley - who is just starting to show something. Is there room for Archer or Wilkes to come in at FF and perhaps pose more of a threat than Stanley?

[plugger66]

I simply don't agree with most on this thread. We have a new coach who has significantly changed our style. We have several important, experienced players out of the team, but who will be back soon. We're playing a pretty impressive style of footy. Why did we lose on Friday? Not because we were outplayed in the general run of play, but because we made some errors at critical times and perhaps because of some dodgy umpiring calls.

It's still all in the process of coming together. It's not quite time to throw in the towel.

The standard of our play and the level of effort across all members of the team are way above what we saw this time last year.

Yes, we are not as good a team ATM as the Blues or WCE and perhaps the Hawks, Cats and Pies. But we're not as bad as all that. Those superior teams are still worried about their upcoming games against us, never mind about that.

I didn't agree with much of what p66 said, but I do agree that we don't need to play more kids or tank for draft picks.

On the whole, I find myself once most in agreement with saunter K Go girl!

As for the rest of you. Call yourself supporters!! Perhaps we will end up cactus, but surely it isnt done and dusted just yet!! There were no doubt a lot of Cats supporters talking this way a year ago...

Taking it pretty personally by suggesting people arent real supporters if they dont think we have a shot this year. i can only talk for myself but I am a social club member and obviously a normal member through my AFL package and get to as many games as i can. I support the team every game and on the day of the game somehow think we can win whoever we play. It is illogical sometimes though. I yell and scream and get frustrated like most supporters but to then have an opinion that our time is up surely still makes me a good supporter. I am just looking at it logically on who we have played and who has beaten us. More will be revealed in 5 weeks. I also dont go along with the changing of the game plan being some of the problem. Most of our issues are from poor decision making from the same players and poor skills from the same players. That will not change.

As for Geelong they were coming off clearly finishing second in the home and away season of 2010 where as we are coming off clearly finishing 6th and 5 games off 4th in the home and away season of 2011. Hardly similar circumstances. And they had the small matter of actually winning on the final day compared to our heart breaking loses.

[3rd generation saint]

Friday night was one of those games where we won most of the battles, but lost the war.
We outplayed Freo in every statistical sense of the game, except the scoreboard.
We won the clearances, won the tackles, won the hardball gets, contested possession, inside 50's.
Now last year, we we're losing all these areas, yet we made the finals.
If we can get two of our young guys to break out this year, we will play finals.
The positives for me right now are Jack Stevens, yes his disposal isn't as good as it could be, but he is getting the ball and backing himself. He has shown that he can produce good disposals, just needs to learn to have a bit more poise when delivering because he tends to rush himself.
Simpkin, played his best game Friday night in probably the toughest game he's played in, he can only benefit from having Max around and will get better as he builds up his physical strength.
Jack Newnes, looks like a kid, but still shows signs of being player.
Cripps, came on and probably should have had two goals, can play and will get better with experience.
Tom Ledger, didn't play Friday, but I'm hoping has a good one today and comes into the side, for me he looks like a future captain.
Mileera, that flash of play, around the boundary should have been a goal, he bounced it ok, but why he threw it out a 2nd time is inexperience, he had a clear path to the goalsquare, will learn.
Finally Rhys Stanley, this guy excites me because of his height and pace, he is being consistent so far, just needs a break out game to really get his belief up.
This guy could be anything, if he completely fulfills his potential, could be one of the marque players of the competition.
I mean you have a guy who 200cm who, with the proper training, could probably qualify for the 100 metres at the Olympics.
Of course, the possibility is always there that he will fail.
So where are we at, well, with better finishing Friday night, we would have beaten Freo by four or five goals and we would be 3 and 1.
Yes, we are probably at the start of the end of the cycle, we will now see how good we are at limiting how far we fall and for how long.
Let's remember, that free agency works both ways and that at the end of this year and next year, a lot of those draft concessions to the Gold Coast and GWS will be out of contract and may want to come home.

[SaintPav]

SaintPav wrote:

The way Freo were able to go through the middle after having so many numbers back made us look slow. That is enough evidence for me that we are not up to it. Ross also gave other teams a blue print on how to beat us. I can't see us winning more than 11 games.

I don't think we looked slow at all. We look the quickest we've looked in years. Those counter-punch, on-the-break goals that Freo scored last night were exactly the sort of goals that we used to score against everyone else. It wasn't foot speed, it was related to structure and game-plan. The way Freo beat us looked exactly the same as how we used to beat everyone else; stick with the opposition, absorb their pressure and don't get blown away even when you're getting beaten, counterpunch when the oppurtunity arises and build a small lead, then hold onto that lead through more dire defending and counterpunching.

Ross didn't give a blue-print to other clubs on how to beat us, he just knew how to beat us because he intimately knows our players and after only 4 games under SW those players a still playing mostly the way that Ross taught them to play, instead of the way Watters is teaching them to play. Structurally and game-plan wise, we were not beaten last night. More inside 50's, more time in attacking half, more scoring shots. Watters was definately not out-coached by Lyon. We main reason we lost is not because of a deficient game-plan or a list that is "not up to it," but because we didn't execute when shooting for goal, and Freo did.

Freo did it way too easy on the counter attack through the middle of the ground and if that was becuase of structure and gameplan or whatever, Watters was outcoached in this regard. It needs to be addressed...Also, our mid field can't spread as well as the top teams and there is no solution to that problem.

Ross' match ups were well thought out because he knew the team well so other teams will probably take a leaf. That's all i'm saying.

[meher baba]

p66 - I'm not suggesting that you and other pessimists aren't real supporters just because you are pessimists. But I reckon you are jumping the gun a bit. Things aren't quite as desperate as you paint them.

No, we haven't got the best list ATM. No, we certainly haven't got the best coach or off-field setup. Our stars are ageing and some of them, and too many of our other first choice players, have technical shortcomings which lead to turnovers, missed opportunities, etc. Our youn guys coming through are only so-so (how overrated is Ledger on this forum) and it will take us a few years to rebuild through the draft.

Like you, I tend to see this situation as an inevitable consequence of decision-making at the top of the club since around 2005: some of it motivated by short-term considerations (GT trying to keep his job, Lyon's philosophy of focusing entirely on the now) and much of it simply by piss-poor decision-making (our recruitment and list management between the 2007 and 2010 drafts).

Yep, things are a bit grim in many respects. But we remain a force. We have some terrific players who are likely to go round for a few more seasons. We have some reasonable talent coming through. I don't think we are in the situation of the Demons or the Tigers or - perhaps a better comparison - the Dogs. We will bounce back quicker and harder. After the heartbreak of 1997 and 1998, things looked grim in the early 2000s, but we bounced back then.

We can do it again. You've gotta believe....

[dragit]

After the heartbreak of 1997 and 1998, things looked grim in the early 2000s, but we bounced back then.

We can do it again. You've gotta believe....

This is true, however the main reason we bounced back was the fact that we were in the bottom 1 or 2 for 3 years… allowing us to pick up most of our current aging stars.

If we hover around 8 - 13 for the next 3 years, we won't be able to pick up the future super-stars…

I've seen enough spoons in my time that a couple more would not faze me, though I certainly don't want to risk the club folding, surely we can handle a few poor years and remain a viable club…?

[SaintPav]

Like you, I tend to see this situation as an inevitable consequence of decision-making at the top of the club since around 2005: some of it motivated by short-term considerations (GT trying to keep his job, Lyon's philosophy of focusing entirely on the now) and much of it simply by piss-poor decision-making (our recruitment and list management between the 2007 and 2010 drafts).

2010 draft is no good for us you think?

I agree with your point above but would add that financial constraints and sinking very limited resourse into football development had a lot to do with it. You pay for what you get.

I like your enthusiasm just as I like SainterK's and it brings good balance to the site, but wishful thinking has never helped the Saints and won't help us now.

[meher baba]

Like you, I tend to see this situation as an inevitable consequence of decision-making at the top of the club since around 2005: some of it motivated by short-term considerations (GT trying to keep his job, Lyon's philosophy of focusing entirely on the now) and much of it simply by piss-poor decision-making (our recruitment and list management between the 2007 and 2010 drafts).

2010 draft is no good for us you think?

I agree with your point above but would add that financial constraints and sinking very limited resourse into football development had a lot to do with it. You pay for what you get.

I like your enthusiasm just as I like SainterK's and it brings good balance to the site, but wishful thinking has never helped the Saints and won't help us now.

2010 draft was great for us. It was the 2008 and 2009 drafts/trade periods when we totally dropped the Ball/went down the Drain (so to speak).

[BushDave]

The competition is pretty close this year with injuries already hurting some fancied sides. I think we can finsih somewhere from 5th to 8th. We are doing better than our start last year and really should be 4 zip.

I am optimistic that the team will develop some depth this year and a finals finish would be good for the young guys.

[skeptic]

As far as strategy goes, you play the best players in combination with the guyswho are showing signs of improving

you don't play mediocre guys that aren't going to improve... that's where Lyon got it wrong

of our current list, Blake would be the most vulnerable but pbly keeps his spot til Gwilt comes back

we all know my thoughts on Jones but on that performance he keeps his spot for another week...

Peake's papers are stamped... Gram and Ray almost stamped but we know that they can play conisstent football so they rise and fall on their merits

Milne will live and die by his performance

Polo if he could kick would actually be a pretty decent player... dunno what to do with him

[BushDave]

Can't argue with any of that!

[BigMart]

From what I copped on here....

The 2008/2009 drafts were no issue. In fact the list management team were spot on.

[Buckets]

SaintPav wrote:

The way Freo were able to go through the middle after having so many numbers back made us look slow. That is enough evidence for me that we are not up to it. Ross also gave other teams a blue print on how to beat us. I can't see us winning more than 11 games.

I don't think we looked slow at all. We look the quickest we've looked in years. Those counter-punch, on-the-break goals that Freo scored last night were exactly the sort of goals that we used to score against everyone else. It wasn't foot speed, it was related to structure and game-plan. The way Freo beat us looked exactly the same as how we used to beat everyone else; stick with the opposition, absorb their pressure and don't get blown away even when you're getting beaten, counterpunch when the oppurtunity arises and build a small lead, then hold onto that lead through more dire defending and counterpunching.

Ross didn't give a blue-print to other clubs on how to beat us, he just knew how to beat us because he intimately knows our players and after only 4 games under SW those players a still playing mostly the way that Ross taught them to play, instead of the way Watters is teaching them to play. Structurally and game-plan wise, we were not beaten last night. More inside 50's, more time in attacking half, more scoring shots. Watters was definately not out-coached by Lyon. We main reason we lost is not because of a deficient game-plan or a list that is "not up to it," but because we didn't execute when shooting for goal, and Freo did.

Freo did it way too easy on the counter attack through the middle of the ground and if that was becuase of structure and gameplan or whatever, Watters was outcoached in this regard. It needs to be addressed...Also, our mid field can't spread as well as the top teams and there is no solution to that problem.

Ross' match ups were well thought out because he knew the team well so other teams will probably take a leaf. That's all i'm saying.

Watching the game from the stands the times when the split us up the middle we had the chance to man those guys up 10 secs before they got the ball. It's more of a structure issue and the ability of our players to go and man up instead of taking the easy option of waving the hands for someone else to do it.

[SaintPav]

As far as strategy goes, you play the best players in combination with the guyswho are showing signs of improving

you don't play mediocre guys that aren't going to improve... that's where Lyon got it wrong

of our current list, Blake would be the most vulnerable but pbly keeps his spot til Gwilt comes back

we all know my thoughts on Jones but on that performance he keeps his spot for another week...

Peake's papers are stamped... Gram and Ray almost stamped but we know that they can play conisstent football so they rise and fall on their merits

Milne will live and die by his performance

Polo if he could kick would actually be a pretty decent player... dunno what to do with him

Gram's paper are far from stamped and he still has a bit to offer.

Please, which players should have replaced the ones who were not going to improve?

[Thinline]

I like how we are tracking. I like the mix. I like who's in the wings. It will be frustrating at times but our effort will translate to some unexpected wins. Effort is usually rewarded.

It's a year of fast, hard lessons.

Things go our way we could force a top 6 berth.

If we finish 11th I wouldn't be surprised.

[skeptic]

As far as strategy goes, you play the best players in combination with the guyswho are showing signs of improving

you don't play mediocre guys that aren't going to improve... that's where Lyon got it wrong

of our current list, Blake would be the most vulnerable but pbly keeps his spot til Gwilt comes back

we all know my thoughts on Jones but on that performance he keeps his spot for another week...

Peake's papers are stamped... Gram and Ray almost stamped but we know that they can play conisstent football so they rise and fall on their merits

Milne will live and die by his performance

Polo if he could kick would actually be a pretty decent player... dunno what to do with him

Gram's paper are far from stamped and he still has a bit to offer.

Please, which players should have replaced the ones who were not going to improve?

i'm not referring too last night

Geary and Stanley have showed more in 4 games supposedly than what they have in the last 3 years
Lynch has been promising for the crows
maybe if Steven, Armitage and Geary played more across the board in 2010 instead of McQualter's AMAZING role play that so many insist of defending they may have come on faster too... Geary certainly was available to play in the 2010 GF

Maybe if we got more games into McEvoy prior to Gardiner going down in 2011 he may have come on bit faster too

Will Johnson certainly had a better year for Sady then Rhys did... still reckon he was worth at least a few games

As for Gram... he certainly has a bit to offer... he does need to improve though to keep his spot in the side

[Con Gorozidis]

Lets just say if we are outside the 8 at round 18 we can quietly send anyone off who requires surgery.
If I could have one thing on my wish list it would be a big tough young alpha male in the fwd line who kicks goals and is tough - like a jack darling or a young barry hall (without the attitude). but i guess thats number 1 on every teams wishlist.
after that we need a couple more mids who can kick and a tall defender or two.

[Thinline]

Lets just say if we are outside the 8 at round 18 we can quietly send anyone off who requires surgery.
If I could have one thing on my wish list it would be a big tough young alpha male in the fwd line who kicks goals and is tough - like a jack darling or a young barry hall (without the attitude). but i guess thats number 1 on every teams wishlist.
after that we need a couple more mids who can kick and a tall defender or two.

You didn't hold back on the Xmas wishlists as a kid, did you Con.

[bobmurray]

The immediate future doesn't look too promising and if we draft only kids in the 2012 draft then they won't make a difference for 3 years.

Lyon put all his efforts into winning a flag, we didn't, he new the cupboard was bare and bailed, Watters has to reload but who knows how long that will take.
History shows clubs don't always get it right straightaway when they reload. All i can do is watch and wait and wait and wait....

[Leo.J]

I'm not writing us off yet.

3 things, which I mentioned in the preseason...

Whether Lenny and Roo hold up.

How much our kids improve

And injuries in general.

With our best 22 available we can still do some damage imo.