We Will Win More Than 9

[marksnsparks]

Yes we will improve but not at the rate of the up and coming group who have been building for a couple of year (N. Melbourne, bummers, Richmond). The true test is look at the teams below us on last years ladder and see who could overtake us, two I've mentioned already, plus Carlton.
Now look who we could replace in the list above us. Hmmmm....

Love to be proved wrong. If we win the flag, please give me heaps.

[desertsaint]

R1: Gold Coast (Metricon) 1
R3: GWS (Manuka) 2
R4: Essendon (Etihad) *
R5: Sydney (Westpac)
R6: Collingwood (Etihad)
R7: Carlton (Etihad)*
R8: Adelaide (AAMI)
R9: Western Bulldogs (Etihad) 3
R10: North Melbourne (Etihad)*
R11: West Coast (Etihad)*
R12: Bye
R13: Melbourne (MCG) 4
R14: Richmond (MCG)*
R15: Fremantle (Patersons)
R16: Carlton (Etihad)*
R17: Port Adelaide (Etihad) 5
R18: Geelong (Simonds)
R19: Brisbane (Gabba)*
R20: Hawthorn (Etihad)
R21: Sydney (SCG)
R22: Gold Coast (Etihad) 6
R23: Fremantle (Etihad)*

*if we improve from last year i would be expecting us to win these games (or pick up some surprise wins elsewhere to match this amount). Of course we need to improve more than our opponents that beat us last year.
but this amount is my happy bar - 14 wins. more and we'll make the top four and i'll be more than happy!
i think this year is our last chance for a few years to finish high on the ladder.

[samuraisaint]

Not if we grab Lance...

[Zed]

Conventional wisdom would say that we would lose 2 - 3 more games than last year based on ageing stars. However the factor that few people have taken into account is that Watters is far more focused on development than RL was. With another pre-season under their belts I will be very interested to see the likes of Sippos, Simpkin and Newnes, and to see how much more improvement we might get out of Steven , Armo, Geary, Stanley, Milera and Saad.

Overall , I am expecting to see a more even team effort rather than relying on a core group of stars. I think it will be enough to negate the slide - but not enough to push us much further up the ladder. 12 wins again is my pick.

[matrix]

pffft

3rd i reckon

[Wrote for Luck]

R1: Gold Coast (Metricon) 1
R3: GWS (Manuka) 2
R4: Essendon (Etihad) *
R5: Sydney (Westpac)
R6: Collingwood (Etihad)
R7: Carlton (Etihad)*
R8: Adelaide (AAMI)
R9: Western Bulldogs (Etihad) 3
R10: North Melbourne (Etihad)*
R11: West Coast (Etihad)*
R12: Bye
R13: Melbourne (MCG) 4
R14: Richmond (MCG)*
R15: Fremantle (Patersons)
R16: Carlton (Etihad)*
R17: Port Adelaide (Etihad) 5
R18: Geelong (Simonds)
R19: Brisbane (Gabba)*
R20: Hawthorn (Etihad)
R21: Sydney (SCG)
R22: Gold Coast (Etihad) 6
R23: Fremantle (Etihad)*

*if we improve from last year i would be expecting us to win these games (or pick up some surprise wins elsewhere to match this amount). Of course we need to improve more than our opponents that beat us last year.
but this amount is my happy bar - 14 wins. more and we'll make the top four and i'll be more than happy!
i think this year is our last chance for a few years to finish high on the ladder.

you can chuck in round two too!

[bergholt]

Conventional wisdom would say that we would lose 2 - 3 more games than last year based on ageing stars. However the factor that few people have taken into account is that Watters is far more focused on development than RL was.

Probably true, but development generally comes at the expense of short-term results, otherwise every team would be "developing" all the time.

[saintspremiers]

R1: Gold Coast (Metricon) 1
R3: GWS (Manuka) 2
R4: Essendon (Etihad) *
R5: Sydney (Westpac)
R6: Collingwood (Etihad)
R7: Carlton (Etihad)*
R8: Adelaide (AAMI)
R9: Western Bulldogs (Etihad) 3
R10: North Melbourne (Etihad)*
R11: West Coast (Etihad)*
R12: Bye
R13: Melbourne (MCG) 4
R14: Richmond (MCG)*
R15: Fremantle (Patersons)
R16: Carlton (Etihad)*
R17: Port Adelaide (Etihad) 5
R18: Geelong (Simonds)
R19: Brisbane (Gabba)*
R20: Hawthorn (Etihad)
R21: Sydney (SCG)
R22: Gold Coast (Etihad) 6
R23: Fremantle (Etihad)*

*if we improve from last year i would be expecting us to win these games (or pick up some surprise wins elsewhere to match this amount). Of course we need to improve more than our opponents that beat us last year.
but this amount is my happy bar - 14 wins. more and we'll make the top four and i'll be more than happy!
i think this year is our last chance for a few years to finish high on the ladder.

Problem is with this best case scenario is that we are very likely to lose several "very winnable" games as we are no longer a top side. And we are unlikely to win that many upsets either to balance the ledger.

Therefore, a more realistic best case scenario based on your asterisks etc would be 12 wins not 14.