Crab watch

[Yorkeys]

Bonner nailed that clutch goal. JB in same circumstance? well history suggests not.

[skeptic]

My call at the end of 2023 was to move on 2 of Dmac, Jones and Billings. Too expensive and injury prone to carry them all.

My choice of the three was to keep Billings. I pbly stand by that as he pbly offers more value than Jones… but I can’t say I’m losing sleep over it one way or another

[Brunswicksainter]

We all talk petracca v mccartin
But the biggest travesty was Judd v ball
That cost us a premiership

We'd only have won a premiership with Judd if the coach had remembered to play him in the fourth quarter of the GF.

Seriously, I would say that Ball vs Judd wasn't such a bad pick, in that Ball was an A-grade player (or very close to being one) and delivered pretty well during his career for both us and the Pies, notwithstanding his injury problems which were not all foreseeable at the time of the draft (remembering that both he and Judd were injury concerns at the time). Sure Judd was a better player than Ball, but I think a reasonable benchmark for using the early picks in any draft is to choose someone who can deliver 200 quality games and some club B&Fs and perhaps an AA or two.

Ball met my benchmark, but Billings has fallen a way short, although he might still eventually get to 200 games. He looked the goods when selected, but hasn't developed into the gamebreaking attacking force that warranted his going so early in the draft. So he's a failure, but not a terrible one. Sure, Bontempelli is tons better than him, but few pundits were suggesting this at the time of the draft.

McCartin still remains the worst ever use of a #1 draft pick by the club and possibly the worst ever by any club. First of all, there is some evidence to suggest that at least part of why he was chosen was driven by marketing concerns rather than the simple aim of finding the best available player. It was hoped he could be the sort of Tony Lockett type of FF who would bring crowds to our games. But, even in his early pre-season appearances, it was pretty clear to all who could take their rose-coloured glasses off that he was not mobile enough to play FF in the modern game and was also not particularly reliable at taking set shots. He was, however, a good mark and pretty good at passing by foot, which was why he was able to reinvent himself at the Swans as a reasonable quality defender, although nothing remotely near what one would expect from a #1 draft pick. His shortcomings as a FF were visible beforee he started getting concussed all the time and should have been picked up before we considered drafting him: I really don't know why this was not the case.

There is no doubt that many people in football tend to get a bit over-excited when they see large, strong FFs (some of the commentary that goes on when Tex Walker is playing borders on the homoerotic). So I think they often get overvalued. Let's face it, there are plenty of pretty ordinary ones running around at any time: Ben Brown and Charlie Dixon immediately jump to my mind. I would once have included Jesse Hogan on my list too, but all of a sudden he's playing out of his skin (Kingsley's a bloody good coach IMO: perhaps we should have given him a crack ahead of Ratten).

Of course the worst thing about our picking McCartin was that what we really needed at the time - have needed for a decade or more - was a quality attacking mid. And there he was sitting in the draft, visible to all (including our coach Richo, who seems to have tried to persuade the club to go with Petracca instead of McCartin). And many pundits predicted big things for him: far more than was the case with the Bont.

In cricket, the adage is that, if you win the toss, you bat first nine times out of ten, and the tenth time you think about sending the opposition and then decide to bat first. In using a #1 draft pick, I think the adage should be that nine out of ten times you go for the best available mid, and the tenth time you pick Nick Riewoldt because he was a once-in-a-generation talent. McCartin was never that.

Sorry that went on so long, but analysing the performances of players is really interesting. Obviously a lot of posters are currently enjoying picking Billings's performances for the Dees to pieces. I predict that he might get a bit better over the next few weeks. He is still recovering from a prolonged period of being injured and the blow he received to his confidence when it became clear that he was no longer wanted at the Saints.

At the time not one pundit or draft board had mccartin rated ahead of petracca. For that very reason it has to be the worst 1st pick of all time.

[B.M]

Vs Brisbane

17 possessions
9 kicks
8 handballs
3 tackles
0 goals
77% DE
2 score involvements

Average game
Not great but not bad

[skeptic]

Vs Brisbane

17 possessions
9 kicks
8 handballs
3 tackles
0 goals
77% DE
2 score involvements

Average game
Not great but not bad

I think that’s a generous assessment

6 touches to half time… a complete non-factor when the game was on the line and slipping away.
Melbourne started the last quarter with a push and he returned with 4 touches for the quarter.

You call it average… for me personally, that is a commercial for why he needed to be moved on

[Killa]

My recollection was that McCartin was well in the frame as the Number 1 Draft Pick

And Petracca was marked down because his body size was a contributor to his performance as a mid versus that age group

Plus some personality issues with Petracca

My recall was that Bomtapelli was also marked down because body size gave him an advantage among his age group

With McCartin coming into a bottom side (so very poor) was not ideal as a KPP - then came the injuries no one could have foreseen - and which finally saw the end of his AFL career after representing Sydney in a Grand Final

So give the never ending crap a miss people

Worst number 1 Pick ever - hardly!!!

He was a key player in a Grand Final side

And in regard Number 1 Picks, they are but ONE player among 23 on the field

Think Marshall, Sinclair, Wilkie and Steele among others

[B.M]

My recollection is that Petracca was the Larke medallist (best player in the champ) he was Eastern Rangers B&F and Runner Up in the Morrish Medal. He also finished RU in the under 18 goal kicking with 36 goals (as a mid/forward!)

His personality was a kid that was very confident in his ability- which has held him in great stead as an elite afl footballer

Petracca played a very key role in a premiership- he actually won the Norm Smith Medal!

Along with 2 best and fairest awards at Melbourne and twice runner up (to Clayton Oliver)

It is clearly the biggest recruiting fk ups in draft history

He was a consensus as number 1

[Mr Magic]

Worse than Tambling over Franklin/Roughead?

[SuperDuper]

Worse than Tambling over Franklin/Roughead?

I would say equally as bad or worse. The reason it may be worse is because Petracca was universally believed to be the standout No. 1 pick and had been the entire draft year. Entering the draft period, Franklin was considered a high pick but not universally considered the clear no. 1

[saint6709]

My recollection was that McCartin was well in the frame as the Number 1 Draft Pick

And Petracca was marked down because his body size was a contributor to his performance as a mid versus that age group

Plus some personality issues with Petracca

My recall was that Bomtapelli was also marked down because body size gave him an advantage among his age group

With McCartin coming into a bottom side (so very poor) was not ideal as a KPP - then came the injuries no one could have foreseen - and which finally saw the end of his AFL career after representing Sydney in a Grand Final

So give the never ending crap a miss people

Worst number 1 Pick ever - hardly!!!

He was a key player in a Grand Final side

And in regard Number 1 Picks, they are but ONE player among 23 on the field

Think Marshall, Sinclair, Wilkie and Steele among others

Definitely worst number 1 draft pick of all time
Everyone in football knew Petracca was a better pick

[skeptic]

Well almost everyone

[B.M]

Big stats from Gresham last night

26 and a goal from HF

[Moods]

Maybe this makes me a softcock. But I’m on record of being one of Gresham’s biggest critics on here. But if he can turn it around I’d be really pleased for him. Certainly doesn’t change my opinion of us moving him on, he clearly needed a new environment, but I take no pleasure in seeing former saints players going crap

[B.M]

My take on ex players

If they fkd off because they wanted to, I don’t want them to do well

If they didn’t want to leave, but we fkd them off, no ill will from me

[skeptic]

Gresham’s talent has never been in question.

The challenge was always more his consistently vs cost of keeping him. And that’s a balancing act because his position is a tough position.

Always turns in a number of match winning or close thereof performances a year.

Less polished than Billings but has always been better value

[Vortex]

Haven't seen anything from the Crab yet to make me feel regret we traded him, one quarter to go so maybe he can bob up and find a moment. I'd be happy for him if he does...big crowd and never a better time to impress your new fans.

[B.M]

Gresham

16 possessions
0 goals
2 tackles
1 goal assist

Not a shocking game but not that impactful

Having said that
Both JB and Gresh are holding their spot in far better teams than StK

[B.M]

Billings

18 possessions
2 tackles

[skeptic]

Pbly his best performance on the year to date IMO. I liked that a lot more than his bigger numbers against lowly opposition

Wish we’d kept him ahead of Jones

[Scollop]

Billings

18 possessions
2 tackles

Out of those 18 possessions only 1 was contested.

So that's 17 disposals where Billings received the footy without a high level of pressure. What would you expect for his disposal efficiency?

I'd expect 72% or better. That would be 13 out of 18 touches hitting the target.

Billings ended up with a DE of 61%. That's like getting only 11 effective possessions for the whole game.

Can't handle heat. There's certainly some pressure immediately after he takes possession, but they are called uncontested possessions for a reason.

If you break it down even further, he's taken 7 marks. That means when he receives the footy in general play he'll fluff it or turn it over 2 out of every 3 times.

[Vortex]

The word fluff is so under used these days, good to see it get a run.

[B.M]

He’s playing in a good side, holding his spot - must be doing something ok?

He only has to play his role as a HHF

Compare his numbers to those who play in that position at StK and see how you get on?!

[Scollop]

He’s playing in a good side

We'll see how long he holds his spot

The young kid Laurie who came on as sub kicked 2 goals. They have Spargo and McAdam. I think both available soon and both play the same position

As well as Jake Melsham who will be available later in the year

Put any of our smalls in that position in the Melbourne team and they'd have respectable numbers.

[takeaway]

Billings has played 7 more games this year than quite few predicted on here. For a top team as well. Going quite well, seems to be settling in.
Thought he was good against Tigers, well weighted passes set up scoring chances, presented options which are being increasingly honoured by teammates.

Couldn't get on the park much last couple of years due to injury, also wasn't given much encouragement by Saints, so he wanted out.

Saints should have persevered, we need all the good kickers we can get.

My only concern is he stays fit, if he does, Melb gain, Saints pain. Again.

[Scollop]

Billings is not the type of player you need at your club when you're rebuilding. You need senior players to absorb heat and pressure....and with at least a little bit of a physical presence

We have enough outside runners in our team. Billings is surplus