Only 33.3% of minor Premiers win the flag

This unofficial St Kilda Saints fan forum is for people of all ages to chat Saints Footy and all posts must be respectful.

Moderators: Saintsational Administrators, Saintsational Moderators

Post Reply
mohannair
Club Player
Posts: 764
Joined: Fri 08 May 2009 12:59pm
Location: Mill Park
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 2 times

Only 33.3% of minor Premiers win the flag

Post: # 992050Post mohannair »

I looked into the Ladder position of the Premiers for the corresponding year & it shows that only 33.3% of the ladder leaders have won the flag.

Here are the details.

Year 2001, Ladder leader = Essendon, Premiers = Brisbane (finished 2nd on the ladder)
Year 2002, Ladder leader = Port, Premiers = Brisbane (finished 2nd on the ladder)
Year 2003, Ladder leader = Port, Premiers = Brisbane (finished 3rd on the ladder)
Year 2004, Ladder leader = Port, Premiers = Port
Year 2005, Ladder leader = Adelaide, Premiers = Sydney (finished 3rd on the ladder)
Year 2006, Ladder leader = Eagles, Premiers = Eagles
Year 2007, Ladder leader = Geelong, Premiers = Geelong
Year 2008, Ladder leader = Geelong, Premiers = Hawks (finished 2nd on the ladder)
Year 2009, Ladder leader = Saints, Premiers = Geelong (finished 2nd on the ladder)
Year 2010, Ladder leader = Pies, Premiers = ?????

Intresting facts.


User avatar
#1GILL
SS Hall of Fame
Posts: 2310
Joined: Sun 28 Sep 2008 1:15pm
Location: Berwick

Post: # 992054Post #1GILL »

I think you are confusing 'interesting' with 'boring'


User avatar
SaintPav
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 19161
Joined: Wed 16 Jun 2010 9:24pm
Location: Alma Road
Has thanked: 1609 times
Been thanked: 2031 times

Post: # 992058Post SaintPav »

#1GILL wrote:I think you are confusing 'interesting' with 'boring'
I think it's interesting...


Holder of unacceptable views and other thought crimes.
User avatar
#1GILL
SS Hall of Fame
Posts: 2310
Joined: Sun 28 Sep 2008 1:15pm
Location: Berwick

Post: # 992059Post #1GILL »

SaintPav wrote:
#1GILL wrote:I think you are confusing 'interesting' with 'boring'
I think it's interesting...
It's not actually a bad stat. I just couldn't resist using that line, it's off one of my favourtie TV shows.


User avatar
SaintPav
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 19161
Joined: Wed 16 Jun 2010 9:24pm
Location: Alma Road
Has thanked: 1609 times
Been thanked: 2031 times

Post: # 992061Post SaintPav »

#1GILL wrote:
SaintPav wrote:
#1GILL wrote:I think you are confusing 'interesting' with 'boring'
I think it's interesting...
It's not actually a bad stat. I just couldn't resist using that line, it's off one of my favourtie TV shows.
Which show?


Holder of unacceptable views and other thought crimes.
User avatar
#1GILL
SS Hall of Fame
Posts: 2310
Joined: Sun 28 Sep 2008 1:15pm
Location: Berwick

Post: # 992067Post #1GILL »

SaintPav wrote:
#1GILL wrote:
SaintPav wrote:
#1GILL wrote:I think you are confusing 'interesting' with 'boring'
I think it's interesting...
It's not actually a bad stat. I just couldn't resist using that line, it's off one of my favourtie TV shows.
Which show?
Scrubs.


User avatar
On the Bench
Club Player
Posts: 402
Joined: Sun 20 Nov 2005 10:41pm
Location: Perth. Where Foxtel has now allowed me to watch my beloved Saints each week.
Been thanked: 2 times

Post: # 992068Post On the Bench »

I'll throw in Swan Districts won this years WAFL flag.

Claremont were by far the best team all year.

It comes down to who most wants it on the day.

Personally, I have coached five seasons of junior footy for 5 premierships. I don't think we've ever been the best side, but we do have the greatest desire. I have the best bunch of young fellas in this team but we're not the most skillful.


I am still hurting from 71;
my gut churns thinking of 97;
2009 was agony,
2010a was a pleasure to watch only to be devastated by 2010 b.
It hurts barracking for the Saints
User avatar
SaintPav
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 19161
Joined: Wed 16 Jun 2010 9:24pm
Location: Alma Road
Has thanked: 1609 times
Been thanked: 2031 times

Re: Only 33.3% of minor Premiers win the flag

Post: # 992085Post SaintPav »

mohannair wrote:I looked into the Ladder position of the Premiers for the corresponding year & it shows that only 33.3% of the ladder leaders have won the flag.

Here are the details.

Year 2001, Ladder leader = Essendon, Premiers = Brisbane (finished 2nd on the ladder)
Year 2002, Ladder leader = Port, Premiers = Brisbane (finished 2nd on the ladder)
Year 2003, Ladder leader = Port, Premiers = Brisbane (finished 3rd on the ladder)
Year 2004, Ladder leader = Port, Premiers = Port
Year 2005, Ladder leader = Adelaide, Premiers = Sydney (finished 3rd on the ladder)
Year 2006, Ladder leader = Eagles, Premiers = Eagles
Year 2007, Ladder leader = Geelong, Premiers = Geelong
Year 2008, Ladder leader = Geelong, Premiers = Hawks (finished 2nd on the ladder)
Year 2009, Ladder leader = Saints, Premiers = Geelong (finished 2nd on the ladder)
Year 2010, Ladder leader = Pies, Premiers = ?????

Intresting facts.
What day did the winner play their prelim?


Holder of unacceptable views and other thought crimes.
saintspremiers
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 25303
Joined: Tue 01 Feb 2005 4:25pm
Location: Trump Tower
Has thanked: 142 times
Been thanked: 284 times

Post: # 992136Post saintspremiers »

at last, a decent stat that has some meaning.......

Good pickup!


i am Melbourne Skies - sometimes Blue Skies, Grey Skies, even Partly Cloudy Skies.
User avatar
saintsRrising
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 30098
Joined: Mon 15 Mar 2004 11:07am
Location: Melbourne
Has thanked: 711 times
Been thanked: 1235 times

Re: Only 33.3% of minor Premiers win the flag

Post: # 992141Post saintsRrising »

SaintPav wrote:
What day did the winner play their prelim?
I think they said 6 out of the last PF Winner from the sat night have gone on to win the GF.


Flying the World in comfort thanks to FF Points....
User avatar
SaintPav
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 19161
Joined: Wed 16 Jun 2010 9:24pm
Location: Alma Road
Has thanked: 1609 times
Been thanked: 2031 times

Re: Only 33.3% of minor Premiers win the flag

Post: # 992177Post SaintPav »

saintsRrising wrote:
SaintPav wrote:
What day did the winner play their prelim?
I think they said 6 out of the last PF Winner from the sat night have gone on to win the GF.
What about this stat..

How many teams lose back to back GF?

Pies did it in 1979/1980.


Holder of unacceptable views and other thought crimes.
User avatar
#1GILL
SS Hall of Fame
Posts: 2310
Joined: Sun 28 Sep 2008 1:15pm
Location: Berwick

Re: Only 33.3% of minor Premiers win the flag

Post: # 992181Post #1GILL »

SaintPav wrote:
saintsRrising wrote:
SaintPav wrote:
What day did the winner play their prelim?
I think they said 6 out of the last PF Winner from the sat night have gone on to win the GF.
What about this stat..

How many teams lose back to back GF?

Pies did it in 1979/1980.
2002, 2003


saints11
Club Player
Posts: 681
Joined: Sun 04 May 2008 9:25pm
Location: Melbourne
Contact:

Re: Only 33.3% of minor Premiers win the flag

Post: # 992182Post saints11 »

SaintPav wrote:
saintsRrising wrote:
SaintPav wrote:
What day did the winner play their prelim?
I think they said 6 out of the last PF Winner from the sat night have gone on to win the GF.
What about this stat..

How many teams lose back to back GF?

Pies did it in 1979/1980.
They lost in 81 aswell


User avatar
Bernard Shakey
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 11242
Joined: Sun 18 Mar 2007 11:22pm
Location: Down By The River 1989, 2003, 2009 & 2013
Has thanked: 126 times
Been thanked: 137 times

Post: # 992187Post Bernard Shakey »

Ten years is a rather small sample in a comp that's been going for over 100 years.


Old enough to repaint, but young enough to sell
FQF
SS Life Member
Posts: 2595
Joined: Fri 03 Jul 2009 1:24am

Post: # 992192Post FQF »

Utterly meaningless.

One third is a fair amount anyway... not like it's 10% or something.


User avatar
SaintPav
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 19161
Joined: Wed 16 Jun 2010 9:24pm
Location: Alma Road
Has thanked: 1609 times
Been thanked: 2031 times

Post: # 992239Post SaintPav »

Bernard Shakey wrote:Ten years is a rather small sample in a comp that's been going for over 100 years.
true


Holder of unacceptable views and other thought crimes.
wasaintsfan
Club Player
Posts: 1315
Joined: Tue 15 Sep 2009 10:28pm
Been thanked: 11 times

Post: # 992247Post wasaintsfan »

happened in the wafl today.. claremont finish top... swans won the flag by 1 point

claremont finished 8 points clear of swans and easily made the grand final.

bad thing is the swans wear black and white and won their last premiership in 1990 :|


User avatar
saintdooley
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 4571
Joined: Mon 20 Feb 2006 2:32pm

Re: Only 33.3% of minor Premiers win the flag

Post: # 992255Post saintdooley »

SaintPav wrote:
mohannair wrote:I looked into the Ladder position of the Premiers for the corresponding year & it shows that only 33.3% of the ladder leaders have won the flag.

Here are the details.

Year 2001, Ladder leader = Essendon, Premiers = Brisbane (finished 2nd on the ladder)
Year 2002, Ladder leader = Port, Premiers = Brisbane (finished 2nd on the ladder)
Year 2003, Ladder leader = Port, Premiers = Brisbane (finished 3rd on the ladder)
Year 2004, Ladder leader = Port, Premiers = Port
Year 2005, Ladder leader = Adelaide, Premiers = Sydney (finished 3rd on the ladder)
Year 2006, Ladder leader = Eagles, Premiers = Eagles
Year 2007, Ladder leader = Geelong, Premiers = Geelong
Year 2008, Ladder leader = Geelong, Premiers = Hawks (finished 2nd on the ladder)
Year 2009, Ladder leader = Saints, Premiers = Geelong (finished 2nd on the ladder)
Year 2010, Ladder leader = Pies, Premiers = ?????

Intresting facts.
What day did the winner play their prelim?
from memory (which is pretty good when it comes to boring football facts) 09 Geelong played sat night, 08 Hawks played sat night, 07 Geelong played friday night, 06 Eagles played saturday, 05 we played swans friday night, 04 port played us friday night....my memory doesnt go past 2004 sorry.


"Another storied win in Robert Harvey's career. They say he is the embodiment of their motto of strength through loyalty, and on the day he became just the tenth man to play 350 league games the saints reward him with a seemingly impossible victory."
User avatar
St. Luke
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 5268
Joined: Wed 17 Mar 2004 12:34pm
Location: Hiding at Telstra Dome!

Post: # 992355Post St. Luke »

I think what it shows is the team who finishes below the minor premier need/and do, more often than not, the ability to GET ON THEIR FRIGGIN BIKES as soon as that ball bounces!!

I think the stats are very interesting! I'm expecting us to come out hard!

The other thing I'm expecting is some filthy Malthouse tactics to "win at all costs" and send in a few snipers early on! The scumbag and his filthy team would be exactly like this! Especially when you look at a coach staring down the barrel of retirement! I hope to the sweet skies above that the umpires are going to protect our players!


When they created LENNY HAYES (in the shadow of Harvs) they forgot to break the mold (again)- hence the Supremely Incredible Jack Steven!!
User avatar
HSVKing
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 5556
Joined: Mon 08 Mar 2004 5:18pm
Location: Mornington

Post: # 992595Post HSVKing »

Bernard Shakey wrote:Ten years is a rather small sample in a comp that's been going for over 100 years.
Don't think the 1920's would account for much.

Then again, nothing before Saturday does.


They walk amongst us...

Image
bergholt
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 7356
Joined: Wed 11 Aug 2004 9:25am

Re: Only 33.3% of minor Premiers win the flag

Post: # 992650Post bergholt »

mohannair wrote:I looked into the Ladder position of the Premiers for the corresponding year & it shows that only 33.3% of the ladder leaders have won the flag.
but 50% of the time when the ladder leader makes the grannie they win it. (04, 06, 07; losses in 01, 08, 09.) since the pies are already there, that's probably the more pertinent stat.

and what those stats also say is that only 22% of teams who finish third win the grannie.

however, 100% of teams who finished third and got to the grannie won it! (03 and 05.) never in the last nine years has a team finished third on the ladder and made the grand final and then lost! and we're in the grannie! does that mean we're guaranteed to win?


WaggaSaint
Club Player
Posts: 57
Joined: Sat 05 Apr 2008 8:44pm
Location: The Probably over sunny Wagga

Re: Only 33.3% of minor Premiers win the flag

Post: # 992691Post WaggaSaint »

mohannair wrote:I looked into the Ladder position of the Premiers for the corresponding year & it shows that only 33.3% of the ladder leaders have won the flag.

Here are the details.

Year 2001, Ladder leader = Essendon, Premiers = Brisbane (finished 2nd on the ladder)
Year 2002, Ladder leader = Port, Premiers = Brisbane (finished 2nd on the ladder)
Year 2003, Ladder leader = Port, Premiers = Brisbane (finished 3rd on the ladder)
Year 2004, Ladder leader = Port, Premiers = Port
Year 2005, Ladder leader = Adelaide, Premiers = Sydney (finished 3rd on the ladder)
Year 2006, Ladder leader = Eagles, Premiers = Eagles
Year 2007, Ladder leader = Geelong, Premiers = Geelong
Year 2008, Ladder leader = Geelong, Premiers = Hawks (finished 2nd on the ladder)
Year 2009, Ladder leader = Saints, Premiers = Geelong (finished 2nd on the ladder)
Year 2010, Ladder leader = Pies, Premiers = ?????

Intresting facts.
Going by this then, the last two have been the non minor premier wins. If you're going by stats, it doesn't go well for us. So, I'm choosing to ignore this information.... 8-)


Nice one chopps....
User avatar
InkerSaint
SS Hall of Fame
Posts: 2132
Joined: Wed 07 Jan 2009 3:06pm

Post: # 992989Post InkerSaint »

Bernard Shakey wrote:Ten years is a rather small sample in a comp that's been going for over 100 years.
It's actually quite a significant sample for a comp that has had its current finals system for only 17 years.


"... You want to pose a threat to the opposition in as many ways as you can, both defensively and offensively. We've got a responsibility to explore all those possibilities - and we will."
User avatar
HSVKing
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 5556
Joined: Mon 08 Mar 2004 5:18pm
Location: Mornington

Post: # 993006Post HSVKing »

InkerSaint wrote:
Bernard Shakey wrote:Ten years is a rather small sample in a comp that's been going for over 100 years.
It's actually quite a significant sample for a comp that has had its current finals system for only 17 years.
Not even that long.

The current system (1v4, 2v3, 5v8, 6v7) started in 2000.


They walk amongst us...

Image
bob__71
Club Player
Posts: 1008
Joined: Thu 06 Jan 2005 3:40pm

Post: # 993047Post bob__71 »

Stats mean nothing....we are smashing stats left right and center. I read in the paper that this year is the first time we have beaten the Bulldogs in a final where they have had a 'Barry' in the team.


Post Reply