Why should/will Pies Lose?

[Newman]

Believe me .... I want the Sainters to win big time but today I got more nervous as I looked back at results of last game of Pie-cum v Saints. They beat us easily, they also beat Cats easily, they haven't lost a game by a big margin for a while, they have no injury concerns ... can someone reassure me that I should be less nervous?? Why will they fail if they play the way they have been? If they beat Cats by a big margin then one can conclude that if we only beat Cats just - why can we beat Pies? And although we do play well against top teams we are beatable - ask Blues, Dons, Crows etc.

[OneEyedSainter77]

Before people reply saying Collingwood are overrated and they will choke as i am sure will happen quickly, let me preface this by stating i too am apprehensive or maybe a little wary of Collingwood and thikn they have the ability to overrun us.

But at the same time, if both us AND Collingwood play to the best of our ability, there is no reason why we can't win this game.

I think we were very flat in round 16 and Collingwood were just awesome. Both teams could probably play better than they did that week 9well, we defintiely could) so it will come down to the team which makes the least mistakes.

However, before we even get the chance to take on Collingwood in the Grand Final, we need to win the Prelim.

Focus on winning that and then we can wonder how we will beat our opponenes.

[Superboot]

1. When they beat us at the MCG: they couldn't miss when kicking for goal; every shanked kick into their foward zone hit a team-mate on the chest; every bounce of the ball went their way; we had a host of players down with the flu and couldn't chase them.

2. When we beat them at Docklands: their kicking for goal was hopeless; their shanked kicks went no-where; we got the run of the ball in the 2nd half; we were able to put pressure on them and had the guts to overcome the loss of Roo.

Pretty much Even Steven, I reckon, were we to face them again.

[Enrico_Misso]

Don't forget we had 8 guys in our team with the flu (or heavy colds) the week before against Brisbane.

This time we will be fighting fit, and we've run in to some good form.

[Chenks05]

I just keep hoping the collywobbles set in! I wouldn't worry about past results....if we meet them in the GF...I think the maturity of the Saints will help us immensely and I know the Pies want it...but they don't know what it's like to lose one (well this playing group anyway) and ofcourse we do...which will give us added fire! I hope

[#1GILL]

- We were sick (Apparently) last time we played them.

- We kicked 6.16
-They kicked 15.10

That's our least accurate match, and their most accurate.

They were playing in the same manner we were playing last year- take no prisioners, we have everything to prove.

We were playing the same way Geelong were last year- Do enough to make the top 4, get it done from there.

Nick Riewoldt is match-fit now and in very good form, then he was nothing but a shadow of his usual self.

[bozza1980]

Why Collingwood should/will lose??

One factor is the hard fought prelim they will be confronted with, if they win they will have survived an almighty fight from the Cats.

There is a chance that this will be their "Grand Final".

Secondly, yes they did belt us around the ears the last time we met, but considering scoring shots were close late in a game that we were dominated in, I think it will only take a little improvement for a big change in the result.

Thirdly, the winner of the grand final since 2002 has reversed the result of the last match between the grand finalists. This is unavoidable, unless Geelong beats the Pies in which case it's hokem.

[Sainternist]

the foregone conclusion that it will be a "pies v cats" prelim comes across as a little clumsy.

geelong still have to face the dockers.

to automatically assume something will definitely happen can be something found erroneous.

[OneEyedSainter77]

Why Collingwood should/will lose??

One factor is the hard fought prelim they will be confronted with, if they win they will have survived an almighty fight from the Cats.

There is a chance that this will be their "Grand Final".

Secondly, yes they did belt us around the ears the last time we met, but considering scoring shots were close late in a game that we were dominated in, I think it will only take a little improvement for a big change in the result.

Thirdly, the winner of the grand final since 2002 has reversed the result of the last match between the grand finalists. This is unavoidable, unless Geelong beats the Pies in which case it's hokem.

I love this quote!

[#1GILL]

the foregone conclusion that it will be a "pies v cats" prelim comes across as a little clumsy.

geelong still have to face the dockers.

to automatically assume something will definitely happen can be something found erroneous.

Whilst I think Cats will win, you never know. Cats coming from a bruising encounter in tough conditions, Freo played a Hawthorn side who didn't turn up.

Sandi will most likely play at FF, anything is possible.

Pav and Mundy are two of the best clearance players you will see. If they can get their hands on it, out to the likes of Hill, who just puts it on Sandi's head, he will outmark his opponent 9 time out of 10. Freo are a chance based on the fact that no one can defend against Sandi.

[R. Harvey 3 votes!]

Believe me .... I want the Sainters to win big time but today I got more nervous as I looked back at results of last game of Pie-cum v Saints. They beat us easily, they also beat Cats easily, they haven't lost a game by a big margin for a while, they have no injury concerns ... can someone reassure me that I should be less nervous?? Why will they fail if they play the way they have been? If they beat Cats by a big margin then one can conclude that if we only beat Cats just - why can we beat Pies? And although we do play well against top teams we are beatable - ask Blues, Dons, Crows etc.

We will win simply because we made the grand final last year and lost in heart breaking circumstances. We KNOW what it really feels like to lose a grand final, the magpies THINK they know. I know they made a grand final in 02/03 but i don't think many of those players are there anymore. Losing prelims is nothing compared to losing a GF...we get to the Grand Final, NO ONE WILL BEAT US!

[fingers]

If collingwood had faced the pressure that either Geelong or St KIlda face last Friday night most of them would be like this ---->

[saintkid]

Believe me .... I want the Sainters to win big time but today I got more nervous as I looked back at results of last game of Pie-cum v Saints. They beat us easily, they also beat Cats easily, they haven't lost a game by a big margin for a while, they have no injury concerns ... can someone reassure me that I should be less nervous?? Why will they fail if they play the way they have been? If they beat Cats by a big margin then one can conclude that if we only beat Cats just - why can we beat Pies? And although we do play well against top teams we are beatable - ask Blues, Dons, Crows etc.

We will win simply because we made the grand final last year and lost in heart breaking circumstances. We KNOW what it really feels like to lose a grand final, the magpies THINK they know. I know they made a grand final in 02/03 but i don't think many of those players are there anymore. Losing prelims is nothing compared to losing a GF...we get to the Grand Final, NO ONE WILL BEAT US!

What he said.

[plugger66]

Believe me .... I want the Sainters to win big time but today I got more nervous as I looked back at results of last game of Pie-cum v Saints. They beat us easily, they also beat Cats easily, they haven't lost a game by a big margin for a while, they have no injury concerns ... can someone reassure me that I should be less nervous?? Why will they fail if they play the way they have been? If they beat Cats by a big margin then one can conclude that if we only beat Cats just - why can we beat Pies? And although we do play well against top teams we are beatable - ask Blues, Dons, Crows etc.

We will win simply because we made the grand final last year and lost in heart breaking circumstances. We KNOW what it really feels like to lose a grand final, the magpies THINK they know. I know they made a grand final in 02/03 but i don't think many of those players are there anymore. Losing prelims is nothing compared to losing a GF...we get to the Grand Final, NO ONE WILL BEAT US!

If it was that easy every side that played the second year in a row in a GF would win it. The pies couldnt win it in 2003. There is much more to it than that other wise they would give us the flag if we win the prelim this year. Geelong maybe thinking if they win it this year they will be one of the greatest sides ever. The pies may just be better than anyone else.

[Thinline]

Believe me .... I want the Sainters to win big time but today I got more nervous as I looked back at results of last game of Pie-cum v Saints. They beat us easily, they also beat Cats easily, they haven't lost a game by a big margin for a while, they have no injury concerns ... can someone reassure me that I should be less nervous?? Why will they fail if they play the way they have been? If they beat Cats by a big margin then one can conclude that if we only beat Cats just - why can we beat Pies? And although we do play well against top teams we are beatable - ask Blues, Dons, Crows etc.

We will win simply because we made the grand final last year and lost in heart breaking circumstances. We KNOW what it really feels like to lose a grand final, the magpies THINK they know. I know they made a grand final in 02/03 but i don't think many of those players are there anymore. Losing prelims is nothing compared to losing a GF...we get to the Grand Final, NO ONE WILL BEAT US!

If it was that easy every side that played the second year in a row in a GF would win it. The pies couldnt win it in 2003. There is much more to it than that other wise they would give us the flag if we win the prelim this year. Geelong maybe thinking if they win it this year they will be one of the greatest sides ever. The pies may just be better than anyone else.

Or not.

Or maybe just the best for 24 rounds.

Whatever.

We have them covered if we are at our best.

But there's the small matter of a prelim first. All well and good to talk about history and grand finals, but history of the recent kind hasn't been very friendly on the prelim front.

One thing at a time, huh?

[saintkid]

Believe me .... I want the Sainters to win big time but today I got more nervous as I looked back at results of last game of Pie-cum v Saints. They beat us easily, they also beat Cats easily, they haven't lost a game by a big margin for a while, they have no injury concerns ... can someone reassure me that I should be less nervous?? Why will they fail if they play the way they have been? If they beat Cats by a big margin then one can conclude that if we only beat Cats just - why can we beat Pies? And although we do play well against top teams we are beatable - ask Blues, Dons, Crows etc.

We will win simply because we made the grand final last year and lost in heart breaking circumstances. We KNOW what it really feels like to lose a grand final, the magpies THINK they know. I know they made a grand final in 02/03 but i don't think many of those players are there anymore. Losing prelims is nothing compared to losing a GF...we get to the Grand Final, NO ONE WILL BEAT US!

If it was that easy every side that played the second year in a row in a GF would win it. The pies couldnt win it in 2003. There is much more to it than that other wise they would give us the flag if we win the prelim this year. Geelong maybe thinking if they win it this year they will be one of the greatest sides ever. The pies may just be better than anyone else.

Or not.

Or maybe just the best for 24 rounds.

Whatever.

We have them covered if we are at our best.

But there's the small matter of a prelim first. All well and good to talk about history and grand finals, but history of the recent kind hasn't been very friendly on the prelim front.

One thing at a time, huh?

Exactly, we need to be only concerned about winning the Prelim but I do also think we will have the Pies covered if we play at our best.

[Cirra]

Nick Riewoldt is match-fit now and in very good form, then he was nothing but a shadow of his usual self.

Going back to the original post's questions and quoting #1Gill about Roo...

I believe he is the difference.

One of the main reasons Collingwood beat the Geelong earlier because the Cats could not get it past the wing. The same thing could be said about the Bulldogs last weekend - they showed the graph of it during On The Couch, they to couldn't get it out of the Collingwood forward line.
The stat from the HS a few weeks ago that talked about the amount of time the ball spends in Collingwoods forward half was impressive.

So - every time the Cats (or Bulldogs....or any other team for that matter against the Pies recently) come out of their back line thy kick to a contest. More often that not the opposition looses the contest against the Pies on the wing and ball goes straight back into their 50.

For mine this is were Riewoldt steps in. He will win the ball on the wing...either in a contested or uncontested mark and the ball then gets into our forward line. He did it many times last week and will do it again in our next games. He is the difference between the ball staying in our back line and getting forward. If he can run his opponent into the ground we have a good shot at inside 50's.

I know that over simplifies it BUT when everything else is close - that may be the difference.

[SaintWal]

Nick Riewoldt is match-fit now and in very good form, then he was nothing but a shadow of his usual self.

Going back to the original post's questions and quoting #1Gill about Roo...

I believe he is the difference.

One of the main reasons Collingwood beat the Geelong earlier because the Cats could not get it past the wing. The same thing could be said about the Bulldogs last weekend - they showed the graph of it during On The Couch, they to couldn't get it out of the Collingwood forward line.
The stat from the HS a few weeks ago that talked about the amount of time the ball spends in Collingwoods forward half was impressive.

So - every time the Cats (or Bulldogs....or any other team for that matter against the Pies recently) come out of their back line thy kick to a contest. More often that not the opposition looses the contest against the Pies on the wing and ball goes straight back into their 50.

For mine this is were Riewoldt steps in. He will win the ball on the wing...either in a contested or uncontested mark and the ball then gets into our forward line. He did it many times last week and will do it again in our next games. He is the difference between the ball staying in our back line and getting forward. If he can run his opponent into the ground we have a good shot at inside 50's.

I know that over simplifies it BUT when everything else is close - that may be the difference.

Take it through the flanks on the way out is a game plan to lose. The pies, and I don't have stats to support, love to force a ball in on their 50, they then trust their ability to win the ball in or ball up and get the next score. The result for them is that they cannot go back into the middle and hence their kicking efficiency is shocking however pure amount of turnovers does succeed in general. They set up with two lines about ten metres either side of the centre square and others are wider. From what I see their are only two left to guard the middle. One at traditional CHF and the other, generally Maxwell in the centre. The key IMO is to drag them wider than just the flanks but actually come down the guts at all opportunities. This will only work for a short time but it should also put strategy one of the Pies into disarray. The keys will be the kicking out, definitely BJ, and the guys to get the kickout from BJ, Roo would have to act as a decoy as he will take most of the attention so Kosi and big MC/ Gardi would have to be the work horses.

Of course this would all depend on them scoring, I prefer to keep them scoreless.

[supersaints]

Relax its only the colliwobbles, if we turn up and play (not so sure they will beat the cats ,or fremantle) We will beat the them if they get there .... easy.......................

[gringo]

At this time of year you are always in danger of going down to the opposition. We need to play to the best of our abilities and hope that the opposition don't have a bit of luck.

Remember the Bulldogs prelim could have been very different had Lake not done something silly at the wrong time. In close matches the cards can fall either way. Better teams can go down when little things start to compound. I still remember 1997, the cracks start to appear and they can turn into a trench.

The one thing about the Saints structure is that you remove some variables from the game, but you can also be caught out not putting teams away.

If we get to the granny and it's tight, the motivation might be a factor, but at the end of the day we just need to keep up the extraordinary pressure we put on Geelong and we can beat anyone.

[St. Luke]

Let's face it, as much as we have to get there, so do the Pies. No easy run for them either!

[ralphsmith]

Collingwood are playing with supreme confidence.

Every player is doing their job on the ground to keep maximum pressure on the opposition.

Very much like us.

I think the saints have a slight maturity edge on the pies, so if we do play them it's going to be a battle to crack their confidence in their plan.

We still have a preliminary final to get through.

GETTING WAY AHEAD OF OURSELVES!!

[Teflon]

I saw enough signs against Adelaid to know they will buckle under enough pressure.

Weve withstood that pressure from Cats et al numerous times......I dont reckon Pies have ben tested this way for months.....its coming though...I hope.

[samoht]

I reckon Collingwood is the hardest working and most motivated team - apply ridiculous pressure... it's off the scale.

Presuming Geelong and St kilda meets Collingwood in the finals ..
I expect Collingwood to have quite a few more shots at goal than either team.

So for St Kilda or Geelong to win .. will rely on Collingwood's poor kicking (here's hoping) but they will need to also apply 80% of Collingwood's work rate and pressure .. I'm not sure if St Kilda or the Cats can even do that.

Proviso..
If Kosi takes 6 inside 50 marks and kicks straight from set shots and supports Riewoldt - we will beat anyone , even the accurate Pies.

[Teflon]

I reckon Collingwood is the hardest working and most motivated team - apply ridiculous pressure... it's off the scale.

Presuming Geelong and St kilda meets Collingwood in the finals ..
I expect Collingwood to have quite a few more shots at goal than either team.

So for St Kilda or Geelong to win .. will rely on Collingwood's poor kicking (here's hoping) but they will need to also apply 80% of Collingwood's work rate and pressure .. I'm not sure if St Kilda or the Cats can even do that.

Proviso..
If Kosi takes 6 inside 50 marks and kicks straight from set shots and supports Riewoldt - we will beat anyone , even the accurate Pies.

Its all about turn over goals.

We bring the pressure we did last week early against Cats for 4 qtrs we'll see hos Pies go.

As I said I dont reckon in recent times....bar a period from Adelaide....Pies have been really put under the blow torch......

For mine its all about how Collingwood respond to that applied pressure.....I reckon theres a question mark there...