History is against the Saints in 2010

[Arthur Mullard]

Apart from the dreadful form of this last month shown by the Saints, a glance at the history books shows that a flag will be beyond us in 2010.
Its more or less a foregone conclusion that Collingwood and Geelong will finish 1 & 2 for the season. And none but the most one-eyed and delusional fan would deny that they are there on merit. Both sides are playing exceptionally good and confident football. The most compelling argument against our chances for the premiership is history:
The last time a team won from outside of the top four was in 1998 (when Adelaide won from 5th) since then the flag has only gone to 1st or 2nd on the H&A ladder, with two wins to the 3rd placed side.
Not only will we need a miracle on a scale of Lazarus with our form, but we would need to do something (win from outside the top 3) that has not been done for twelve seasons.
Forget about 2010 flag chances and just enjoy watching the game! and get ready for another attempt in 2011

[Thinline]

Firstly, f*** off with your pessimism. I will never give up on 'em even if the slump carries on to Rd 22.

Secondly, Geelong are playing same old, same old.

Dogs and Pies are clearly the two best sides as at Rd 18.

But a lot can happen in a month, good and bad.

Geelong may burst a bubble this weekend. Pies may over cook the goose. Dogs may lose Hall. Who knows?

Meanwhile we may carve Port a new freckle and get back on track.

There is time if there is hunger.

[matrix]

ffs

apparently its all over already

[Arthur Mullard]

Classy response thinline! Try READING THE POST SLOWLY AND TRY TO DIGEST WHAT I WAS SAYING I'm NOT asking people to give up on them...simply saying that history and current form point toward another blank season, enjoy going to the game and dont get disappointed at the inevitable outcome!
I'd settle for Geelongs "same old same old" any time! by7 the way!

[samwell]

we are still in 3rd - and playing 4 sides in the bottom 8 on the run to the finals so i wouldn't put us outside the top 3 just yet!!!! the boys just need to find a bit of form and the next few weeks would be a great time to do it!!

or maybe we should drop Riewoldt we were going well till he came back

[Thinline]

Classy response thinline! Try READING THE POST SLOWLY AND TRY TO DIGEST WHAT I WAS SAYING I'm NOT asking people to give up on them...simply saying that history and current form point toward another blank season, enjoy going to the game and dont get disappointed at the inevitable outcome!
I'd settle for Geelongs "same old same old" any time! by7 the way!

It was written with an "i'm not buying the pessimism line" disregard.

No personal offence intended at all.

[Arthur Mullard]

Lets take a look at what we have got:
Kosi playing like a donkey. Forwards who cant kick a 3 figure score.
Defenders who were given the runaround in the last three games.
And what are we pinning OUR hopes on?....Oh yeah
"geelong may burst a bubble, pies may get overconfident, Dogs may lose hall" WOW!!!!! I take it all back!!! With that logic we're a shho-in!!!!

[Arthur Mullard]

Hey Thinline! stick it!!!!!!

[Thinline]

Lets take a look at what we have got:
Kosi playing like a donkey. Forwards who cant kick a 3 figure score.
Defenders who were given the runaround in the last three games.
And what are we pinning our hopes on?....Oh yeah
"geelong may burst a bubble, pies may get overconfident, Dogs may lose hall" WOW!!!!! I take it all back!!! With that logic we're a shho-in!!!!

So you DON'T believe we can turn it around and/or the competition's dynamics can change in a month.

And you suggest everyone forget about 2010 - "Forget about 2010 flag chances and just enjoy watching the game! and get ready for another attempt in 2011".

Oh. But that's somehow NOT asking people to give up.

And yet you take apparent offence at being referred to as pessimistic.

Fair dinkum. She's been a weird old couple of days around here.

A month is a massive time in football. I'll watch that month unfold before I pack away the scarf and beanie for the year. Anything could happen yet. Freo could claim a first week home final. Geelong could belt Collingwood into submissive self doubt. Any number of players could get injured. Any number of winnable games could be lost.

In short nothing is predetermined.

You obviously disagree?

[matrix]

yup its all over

might as well start getting ready for the nbl

after all past history never changes and itll roll that way for next 40 years

[Thinline]

Hey Thinline! stick it!!!!!!

Ah. A child.

Back to your x-box, unsqueezed zits, and dreams of Miley Cyrus, kiddo.

Leave you to it.

[thejiggingsaint]

I EXPECT nothing from the season. However, I always BELIEVE that while there's a chance of winning we should back the side to win!
I have to admit that its not looking as rosy at round 18 as it did last year, but if you read Rohan Connolly (that well known Magpie!) in the Age today you should take some heart Arthur me boy!!!!

[SainterK]

Forget about 2010 flag chances

No

[saintsRrising]

If the Saints finish Top 4, then where you finish the H&A this year will not matter.

YES our current form is of great concern and in particular at Pies, Cats and Dogs are hitting their straps at present.

However last year Cats were dipping round about now..but ending up winning.

Saints were still dominating, but missed out on that final day.

What matters if we make Top 4 is Sept form.

However we need to make top 4 still and so rediscover good form now.

This weekends game will show a lot, one way or the other...

[thejiggingsaint]

"HISTORY" may be against us....but since when has history ever counted for anything when St Kilda are concerned!
Time to make OUR OWN history!!!!

[Moods]

08 - Hawks lost to us in Rd 17 and lost to the tiges Rd 21.
07 - Pies finish 5th. Beat WC who lost Cousins, Kerr and Judd who is on one leg. Win final in extra time and lose prelim by a kick to possibly greatest team ever.
05 - Swans lost first final. Were behind all game in 1st semi, and fell over line more due to cats losing all their players through injury rather than any good play.
03 - Lions lose first final. make GF with reportedly 17 fit players and 5 blokes who wouldn't have played if it was any otehr game.
02 - pies fall into top 4 with 13 wins (playing horribly in last 2 mths of H&A season) Win first final against Port and go on to nearly snatch improbable win.

My Point? Still an awful long way to go. Things can change quickly. Our form may get worse (1998) and we drop away completely. Our form might stagnate OR it may get better. It's a ride - don't give up. I have faith in RL and what he's trying to do. Starting posts about history is against us is ridiculous. We are currently third. Who says we will drop beyond that? Top 2 generally have been successful b/c of the interstate teams that have historically made the finals in the past 12 years. this year will be all Victorian, so there is no home ground advantage. Top 2 is no more advantageous than top 4.

Finals are a different ball game.

[plugger66]

The only thing against us iss form. If we get it back we are a huge chance. History also said we couldnt lose last year. I'll tell you about stats and history. Gram had 35 posssessions on Friday. That is what I think of stats.

[bigcarl]

Firstly, f*** off with your pessimism. I will never give up on 'em even if the slump carries on to Rd 22.

Secondly, Geelong are playing same old, same old.

Dogs and Pies are clearly the two best sides as at Rd 18.

But a lot can happen in a month, good and bad.

Geelong may burst a bubble this weekend. Pies may over cook the goose. Dogs may lose Hall. Who knows?

Meanwhile we may carve Port a new freckle and get back on track.

There is time if there is hunger.

well said

[InkerSaint]

Classy response thinline! Try READING THE POST SLOWLY AND TRY TO DIGEST WHAT I WAS SAYING I'm NOT asking people to give up on them...simply saying that history and current form point toward another blank season, enjoy going to the game and dont get disappointed at the inevitable outcome!
I'd settle for Geelongs "same old same old" any time! by7 the way!

I actually thought you got the response you deserved... but since you're after a dispassionate response:

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Under the McIntyre final 8 system there have been 7 of 16 Grand Finals where 1st played 2nd, making the last 3 years an abberation. Even if the top 8 remains unchanged it is statistically unlikely that this year's Grand Finalists will be Collingwood and Geelong.

However in that same period the minor premier has only missed the Grand Final 4 times.

Interestingly, in that position, the minor premier only has a 50-50 chance of winning the flag. The strike rate actually gets a little better for those who don't finish on top.

Add to that the statistic that where last year's minor premier wins this year's flag... I predict a Saints-Magpies Grand Final. Saints Premiers.

[dcstkfc]

Apart from the dreadful form of this last month shown by the Saints, a glance at the history books shows that a flag will be beyond us in 2010.
Its more or less a foregone conclusion that Collingwood and Geelong will finish 1 & 2 for the season. And none but the most one-eyed and delusional fan would deny that they are there on merit. Both sides are playing exceptionally good and confident football. The most compelling argument against our chances for the premiership is history:
The last time a team won from outside of the top four was in 1998 (when Adelaide won from 5th) since then the flag has only gone to 1st or 2nd on the H&A ladder, with two wins to the 3rd placed side.
Not only will we need a miracle on a scale of Lazarus with our form, but we would need to do something (win from outside the top 3) that has not been done for twelve seasons.
Forget about 2010 flag chances and just enjoy watching the game! and get ready for another attempt in 2011

Let's look at the Grand Finals since 2000 when the new system was introduced:

2000: Essendon 1st at end of HnA season d Melbourne 3rd at end of HnA season
2001: BL 2nd d Ess 1st
2002: BL 2nd d Coll 4th
2003: BL 3rd d Coll 2nd
2004: PA 1st d BL 2nd
2005: Syd 3rd d WCE 2nd
2006: WCE 1st d Syd 4th
2007: Geel 1st d PA 2nd
2008: Haw 2nd d Geel 1st
2009: Geel 2nd d StK 1st

So for each top 4 position:

1st: 4 premiership, 3 runners-up
2nd: 4 flags, 4 ru
3rd: 2 flags, 1 ru
4th: 2 ru

Top 4 have filled 38 of 40 prelim spots

so a flag from 3rd is less likely than from top 2, but not impossible

[InkerSaint]

so a flag from 3rd is less likely than from top 2, but not impossible

Yes but you're forgetting that the law of averages is to re-assert itself. The last 3 years have been an abnormal streak of 1 vs. 2 - the streak is more likely to finish sooner rather than later.

[Moods]

Apart from the dreadful form of this last month shown by the Saints, a glance at the history books shows that a flag will be beyond us in 2010.
Its more or less a foregone conclusion that Collingwood and Geelong will finish 1 & 2 for the season. And none but the most one-eyed and delusional fan would deny that they are there on merit. Both sides are playing exceptionally good and confident football. The most compelling argument against our chances for the premiership is history:
The last time a team won from outside of the top four was in 1998 (when Adelaide won from 5th) since then the flag has only gone to 1st or 2nd on the H&A ladder, with two wins to the 3rd placed side.
Not only will we need a miracle on a scale of Lazarus with our form, but we would need to do something (win from outside the top 3) that has not been done for twelve seasons.
Forget about 2010 flag chances and just enjoy watching the game! and get ready for another attempt in 2011

Let's look at the Grand Finals since 2000 when the new system was introduced:

2000: Essendon 1st at end of HnA season d Melbourne 3rd at end of HnA season
2001: BL 2nd d Ess 1st
2002: BL 2nd d Coll 4th
2003: BL 3rd d Coll 2nd
2004: PA 1st d BL 2nd
2005: Syd 3rd d WCE 2nd
2006: WCE 1st d Syd 4th
2007: Geel 1st d PA 2nd
2008: Haw 2nd d Geel 1st
2009: Geel 2nd d StK 1st

So for each top 4 position:

1st: 4 premiership, 3 runners-up
2nd: 4 flags, 4 ru
3rd: 2 flags, 1 ru
4th: 1 ru

Top 4 have filled 38 of 40 prelim spots

so a flag from 3rd is less likely than from top 2, but not impossible

Minor correction. 4th has finished runners up twice NOT once.

[dcstkfc]

so a flag from 3rd is less likely than from top 2, but not impossible

Yes but you're forgetting that the law of averages is to re-assert itself. The last 3 years have been an abnormal streak of 1 vs. 2 - the streak is more likely to finish sooner rather than later.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

[InkerSaint]

so a flag from 3rd is less likely than from top 2, but not impossible

Yes but you're forgetting that the law of averages is to re-assert itself. The last 3 years have been an abnormal streak of 1 vs. 2 - the streak is more likely to finish sooner rather than later.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

Oh go ahead, spoil the fun why don't you.

Which changes nothing, the OP is still refuted - history proves nothing.

[Sainternist]

Arthur, it's no great revelation that the odds are starting to stack up against us. However, this would make a premiership all the more sweeter, should we completely defy this so called "foregone conclusion".

Hold the phone a second! We're in the top 4. Fans of teams like Hawthorn would be crawling across hot coals in order to see their team get that kind of poll position and a double chance come September.

History schmistory... We have 4 rounds of H&A footy and then THE FINALS.

Shouldn't we be excited about this prospect instead?