Why aren't I convinced?

[Moods]

Funny how everyone believes that we're off form, yet we've beaten every team in the top 4 this year. IN fact the only games the top teams have dropped have been against us! WE've also beaten the highly fancied bulldogs. WE're going ok. We'll drop more games than last year but so what, as many have pointed out - it's our form in August running into September that really counts. Look at the bullies, out of form probably by the same degree as us, and yet they sit 3-3.

[Dis Believer]

I'll take 5 and 1 when we're out of form and missing key players.

Early days and (according to an analysis in another thread) we're supposedly through the toughest part of our draw for the year already.

I would like to see us moving the ball better, but as long as we stay at the pointy end of the ladder for the next 3 months, I'll settle for geting the job done and gettting into top gear when it matters.

I think we are a better chance this year to be honest, as I think we are finally seeing the cats drop away by the 1% that we need to get past them.

Sydney and Brisbane both lack depth, Freo won't win as long the the GF is played in Melbourne, and Collingwood generally seem to get there courtesy of a soft draw then get shown up in the real stuff. I also think the bulldogs list is weakened by the addition of B Hall. Their biggest asset was the unpredictable, non-traditional forward line which required multiple avenues to goal. BBBBH being on board appears to have diminished that IMO.

We are not at our best, but we don't need to be until August.

[degruch]

Meh, we've snuffed out every 'premeirship favourite' we've played so far...Collingwood, Freo, Bulldogs, all Premiers 2010 one week, victims the next. Couldn't be happier with what we've done so far this year.

[TazzieSaintGirl83]

We have perhaps not seemed that convincing when looking at the game play but to come across as not convincing and still be 5 - 1 I hope is a good sign.

The teams we have played and beaten have all been deemed quality September contenders by the football world/media.

The loss to Port was a kick in the guts but as other teams have proven you dont need to win every roster game to take the flag.

Working around the loss of Roo was always going to be difficult and then put in the loss of Gram and Ray and Kosi being out of touch after missing games due to suspension and not being able to find his feet form wise just yet and thats a pretty big wrinkle to try and smooth out.

No one wants to win ugly but if thats what it takes then so be it. I would rather win ugly than lose pretty.

A 3pt win is still a win even though my heart and my neighbours would prefer different Im sure

(as with all my posts I do admit that Im blindly loyal, faithful and optimistic when it comes to the saints so please take with a grain of salt)

[bigred]

Found myself having to defend the club somewhat today...with fkn morons bitching about how hard Friday's game was to watch.

My general response has been how I could'nt give a flog since we took the four points.

I also press exactly WHO we have beaten, and who all those sides have beaten. We have had a harder draw than anyone.

Winning ugly? Who cares. Come and beat us.

It is all about August/september.

[Wrote for Luck]

I break the season into quarters; lots of 6 - 6 - 4 - 6 (and allow for one drop per lot)

Lot ONE - Sydney, North, Collingwood, Fremantle, Port, Bulldogs (tough lot - dropped 1)
Lot TWO - Blues, Bombers, WCE, Crows, Richmond, Freo (drop 1 game)
Lot THREE - Geelong, Melbourne, Lions, Collingwood (tough lot - drop 1 game)
Lot FOUR - Hawks, Bombers, Port, North, Richmond, Crows (not so tough? drop 1)

We need to use Lot Two to settle in a forward structure without Nick and build some form, with 2 games at Subiaco and big games against Carlton and Essendon - I'll be happy with only one loss. Wouldn't be surprised to see Stanley in this lot.

If we can get Roo back any time to assist with Lot Three the team will lift. I'd say we'd need him back before or within this lot otherwise we may lose 2 or maybe even 3.

Lot Four - position ourselves for top four finish, who's in form, last minute tinkering, no injuries. Unlike last year finish lot in a winning way.

It goes without saying no drops per lot is best case scenario. But unrealistic.

[roxanne]

My major concern is, since losing Roo, our wins have all been at Etihad where our current style of play is much easier to execute than it is on the bigger grounds. Our main go to key forward is Milne, that's not going to work at the MCG. We need Kosi to go up a gear and someone else, someone capable of a strong contested mark to pop us for us. We desperately need Gram back - does anyone know the extent of his injury? Some good signs from McQualter last week- I think he's coming back into form- and our midfield is holding up magnificently. They are a gutsy team who work hard for each other and believe. If we can find a new, effective avenue to goal and have a bit of luck with injuries we'll be OK.
If Roo can come back fully healed, we are a show.

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

We need to find a genuine forward structure without Roo there, because we don't want to just wait till he comes back, which is no guarantee to happen (or that he'll last, if it does), because it's not ideal to be so dependent on him. We were in the finals last year and look what happened. He was injured in the GF and was beaten again by Harry Taylor (who's going clearly better this year and may meet Roo again this finals campaign). We lost and struggled to kick goals.
It's all well and good to dominate through the year, but if it's a flag we're after, we need to be less dependent on one guy. We may even get to another GF, but will we win it?
I believe we also need to get more of our intensity back. What's happened to our forward pressure? The ball was coming out of there in a flash the other night. Some other teams are doing it better than us this year. Unless we're deliberately saving it for later in the year?
In the 3 games since Roo has been out, many of our guys have also been very flat for much of those games and they need to spark up. At times on Friday night (as in the previous two weeks, at times) I was wondering whether in fact we were missing about 8 of our most important, not just the two. If any of our guys are thinking (even subconsciously) that they'll just pull their finger out when Roo comes back, and we'll be alright, I'd happily bet that we won't. As Arnie said, "If we don't make a stand now, there'll be nobody left to get to the chopper" (Predator).
Many on here seem very happy with where we're at, because the results are going our way for the moment (except against Port), but we were just one or two more accurate Bulldogs shots for goal (early in the game) away from a big loss on Friday. We were at their "mercy". The floodgates looked about to open multiple times, but they didn't "finish us off". That would have been two losses in a row.
And as our match committee/playing group are always saying, it's not about the results so much, as the "process", as far as they're concerned. ie, how we go about it/how we're playing, relative to our best. And if they're honest, I'm sure they realise they're a long way off it at the moment. The results may be mostly going our way for now, but if we continue playing the way we have been for much of the past 2-3 weeks, they probably won't for long, or at least when it matters most to us.
Play as if there is no Roo and we'll start playing much better footy and the results will be much better, too. Then if/when Roo comes back he'll be the icing on our cake.

[SainterK]

Our only loss is to a team that sits in the top eight, at their home ground, and that happens to be our bogey side.

I would be less convinced if I was a Brisbane Lions or Bulldogs supporter at the moment.

I also get annoyed with the suggestion that the results are 'going our way' and things like 'we didn't win, the other team lost'

Gutsy, gutsy win on Friday night....the Saints lifted another gear, something they mastered last year, and the opposition just couldn't follow them.

[plugger66]

We arent playing as well as this time last year and there can be no doubt about that. The question is though does it matter. Unless something very strange happens we just about have to finish top 4 and if we could get to 16 wins we will be top 2 which means no interstate finals unless we lose a final.

That to me would mean we are a realistic chance to win the GF which is what the season is about. One thing it isnt about is 20 hame and away games and losing the GF. If we lose 6 H&A games this year we are at least as much chance of winning the Gf as last year.

[rodgerfox]

Our only loss is to a team that sits in the top eight, at their home ground, and that happens to be our bogey side.

I guess where my concern stems from, is this.


We could have/should have won that match. But we lost.

Against Sydney, Collingwood and the Dogs we could have/should have (depending on who you listen to) lost.

We've won, which is great. However I just don't think we can keep relying on winnings games that 'could have gone either way'.


We really need to come out and be convincing - if not for any other reason than to convince me that we've still got it.

[rodgerfox]

We arent playing as well as this time last year and there can be no doubt about that. The question is though does it matter. Unless something very strange happens we just about have to finish top 4 .

Really though, and this is the concern, it wouldn't have been 'that strange' for us to be 2-4 this year.

We have had a tough draw, granted. But gee I reckon we need to improve. The question of course is, can we?

[SainterK]

Our only loss is to a team that sits in the top eight, at their home ground, and that happens to be our bogey side.

I guess where my concern stems from, is this.


We could have/should have won that match. But we lost.

Against Sydney, Collingwood and the Dogs we could have/should have (depending on who you listen to) lost.

We've won, which is great. However I just don't think we can keep relying on winnings games that 'could have gone either way'.


We really need to come out and be convincing - if not for any other reason than to convince me that we've still got it.

See it's probably because I don't subscribe to that theory

[plugger66]

We arent playing as well as this time last year and there can be no doubt about that. The question is though does it matter. Unless something very strange happens we just about have to finish top 4 .

Really though, and this is the concern, it wouldn't have been 'that strange' for us to be 2-4 this year.

We have had a tough draw, granted. But gee I reckon we need to improve. The question of course is, can we?

We could have won the GF last year but just like this years ladder has us at 5 and 1, last years GF winner was Geelong. Our draw has been tough and with who we have to play in the next 6 weeks we should probably be about 9 and 2 which baring bad form and injury gives us top 4 if not top 2 at the end of the season with hopefully a fit Rooy to come into the side. things arent to bad I would think.

[markp]

We really need to come out and be convincing - if not for any other reason than to convince me that we've still got it.

CS take note...

Next weeks banner should read; "Do it to convincingly to convince RF"

We've won, which is great. However I just don't think we can keep relying on winnings games that 'could have gone either way'.

Welcome to a thing called 'sport'.

[rexy]

I'm just not convinced of us this year.

To say that whilst we're 4-1 and having beaten Sydney, Collingwood, the Dogs and Freo sounds strange.

But I tend to see footy in the context of the season more than just the final score.

For those comfortably wearing rose-coloured glasses, look away now....

Collingwood kicked themselves out of the game - like we did in the GF last year.

Sydney, well we won fair and square although it was close. And Roo bobbed up in the last Q when it was up for grabs.

Clearly we pinched it off the Dogs and we let Freo nearly kick 100 points against us.


We haven't looked good. Our skills have been horrible, and we're struggling to score.
We're getting beaten in contests and clearances.
We don't have Roo.
I don't think we've controlled games like we did last year.

The positive is of course, that whilst we're down on form we're winning games.

The question really is, can we turn this around?

Maybe we're just struggling to settle with Ball out of the team, and further so with Roo out.


But we can't continue playing the way we are and expect to really contend, I wouldn't think.

The one thing that is apparent, is that we have a crack and don't give up.


Anyone else feeling uneasy about 2010?

We have some things to adress no doubt. i agree that our skills have been down and I fear at times we are attacking the man at the detriment of going for the ball. Not a bad time of the year not to be playing your best footy though. If there is one thing I have realised about RL it is that he is accutely aware of the flaws of his own side and nothing goes un challenged.

We are still winning which is the best sign.

The reason you are concerned is that you are a pessimist, however you are right that we are not playing our best footy.

[saint75]

Collingwood kicked themselves out of the game - like we did in the GF last year.

It was where we forced them to kick most of their goals from (apart from a few of their obvious blunders)

Sydney, well we won fair and square although it was close. And Roo bobbed up in the last Q when it was up for grabs.

Agree

Clearly we pinched it off the Dogs and we let Freo nearly kick 100 points against us.

Disagree with your analysis. We did not 'pinch' it from them. That game was up for grabs the entire time. They had a fair amount of control of the game for 2 and a bit quarters and then you could slowly see the tide change midway through the third quarter. Outside at 3/4 time, the Bulldogs supporters had the points in the bank. I said to a couple of them don't count your chickens as I honestly never felt that game was done and dusted for us. Was I the only one?

We haven't looked good. Our skills have been horrible, and we're struggling to score.
We're getting beaten in contests and clearances.
We don't have Roo.
I don't think we've controlled games like we did last year.

The positive is of course, that whilst we're down on form we're winning games.

The question really is, can we turn this around?

Maybe we're just struggling to settle with Ball out of the team, and further so with Roo out.

But we can't continue playing the way we are and expect to really contend, I wouldn't think.

The one thing that is apparent, is that we have a crack and don't give up.

Anyone else feeling uneasy about 2010?

Nope, not feeling uneasy at all. If we all look back at a couple of threads from last year, the common theme was that we peaked way to early. The first 10 rounds from us were phenomenal and then we dropped off from that form, even heading into the GF we just never recaptured that early season form. I think the training and thinking at the club has changed this year and I think we will come into top gear much later in the season. Will be interesting to see how the season pans out.

[groupie1]

Two words, Jason Gram.

Biggest misconception is that we have reverted to this tough grinding style of play in the absence of Roo, when in fact we started playing this way in the absence of Gram.

He is sorely missed for his impact on play, run and carry, and to be honest, a bit of spark about the side. Underrated, especially given his form that he has carried since the GF.

His absence has also meant that Goddard has not been able to play forward in bursts, and he is probably the closest to Roo in aerobic capacity and setting up of play.

It could also be argued that given we progressed all the way to the GF, it resulted in a later preseason than most and our form will be later to blossom than other teams bundled out early in 2009.

I feel comfortable about the fact we have beaten three teams in tight games, that I believe will be there in September, in a style that the boys have dictated (very important)

I guess to your question of feeling uneasy, I would go for a big negative!

PS - We are also 5-1, which sounds an awful lot better than 4-1

Yeah, Gram is important because he means we can release Goddard forward.

[groupie1]

I'm just not convinced of us this year.

To say that whilst we're 4-1 and having beaten Sydney, Collingwood, the Dogs and Freo sounds strange.

But I tend to see footy in the context of the season more than just the final score.

For those comfortably wearing rose-coloured glasses, look away now....

Collingwood kicked themselves out of the game - like we did in the GF last year.

Sydney, well we won fair and square although it was close. And Roo bobbed up in the last Q when it was up for grabs.

Clearly we pinched it off the Dogs and we let Freo nearly kick 100 points against us.


We haven't looked good. Our skills have been horrible, and we're struggling to score.
We're getting beaten in contests and clearances.
We don't have Roo.
I don't think we've controlled games like we did last year.

The positive is of course, that whilst we're down on form we're winning games.

The question really is, can we turn this around?

Maybe we're just struggling to settle with Ball out of the team, and further so with Roo out.


But we can't continue playing the way we are and expect to really contend, I wouldn't think.

The one thing that is apparent, is that we have a crack and don't give up.


Anyone else feeling uneasy about 2010?

One thing I completely agree with is your point about skill level. Been woeful. I thought the games against Port and Freo bordered on unwatchable because of poor ball use from both sides; against WB it was an enthralling contest in which both sides missed 3-4 gettable goals, which, had they been kicked would have had the match a normal scoring game of 9-10 goals a piece and a classic encounter. But you won't read that in the Herald-Sun. you will more likely see 'they missed such and such, because he allows them to release Goddard forward.'

Good points, mate. Not cause for great concern this early, but against Geelong at the moment we are nowhere near it. and they are the - CLICHE WARNING - benchmark team.

[eppo67]

I am not worried one little bit and l am always usually always worried.

I knew we would have a slow start to the season after losing a G/F we should have won. The fact we have beaten the top 3 teams without Roo is just unbelievable. After last year we now know what we have to do it win it. The players will peak at the right time.

They are like a marathon runner who went out a bit too hard too early last time and now know exactly what they need to do to win it this time.

[rodgerfox]

The reason you are concerned is that you are a pessimist, however you are right that we are not playing our best footy.

Maybe.

Although as most pessimists would, I see myself more as a realist.

[saintsRrising]

Well as an optimist I would look at this way.

Our "form' could have been better and yet we are 5-1 against quality opposition.

In any year of St Kilda's History apart from our most amazing H&A year ever in 2009, this would have been considered a fantastic result. Even in 2009 after round 6 if we had of been 5-1 witha % of 141., I doubt that anyone woulkd not have been happy.


Why are we 5-1?

Because really if you look at all facets of the game our form actually has been very good in many areas.

"Form-wise" many seem to be focussing on primarily one facet of the game as why they are stating the Saints form has not been good. That is essentially kicking. Structure wise we are struggling with the loss of Roo asa marking target and the run of Gram through the middle.


In 2009 IMO the real key to the Saints success was:
* Team play
* Adherance to workrate
* Ability to stick to the gameplan

I see all of these at a high level. "Form" in these factors has been good, if not excellent.

If our disposal skill can ramp up a notch, then the AFL world had better watch out.

The Other Teams

St Kilda does not exist in a vacuum.

Arguably Freo, Pies and Swans who we have played are all better teams than they were in 2009. So is PA but ata lower level. The Dogs on form are currentlya bit less on form, though with Hall their playing list is arguably superior.

But yet playing on average better teams that we did in 2009 we are 5-1.

In 2009 are gameplan was evolved to include the forward press and this tactic bamboozled many other clubs.

When the "all-conquering" Crows came to play us in Melbourne watching then run around like headless chooks unable to escape from our forward line ranks right up their with some of my all time favourite Saints memories. They were lierally powerless against us.

But other clubs have had all Summer to think about the St Kilda Gameplan and to develop and practice against it. So our gameplan is not the edge it was in 2009, and this in iteself means that our wins in 2010 are likely to not on average to be as great, as well as our number of wins as being as many.

Our gameplan has been tweaked yes, but it is not the advantage it was.

Look at the Hawks and their gameplan. In 2008 it gave them a huge edge with it's Buddies Box and midfield rolling zone (designed to make the most of their forward strengths and overcome their midfield defdiciencies). But every club has worked them out. Yes they have had injuries too, and probably a premiership hangover.

But yet the Saints having conceded a lot of our 2009 gameplan advantage are 5-1.


So this year, yes the race looks to have more strong runners in it. But we are well positioned and travelling more than ok. But yes like most races we will need a strong finish.

Top 2 may well be 16 games this year. If so another 11 wins out of 16 should get us there as it would in most years. If we lost to every major opponent we might just miss out on % or by one game (again based on most years).

[aussiejones]

Good Post .

Each year is different with rising and falling club fortunes.
Each year we have differing player combinations to use and consequently different tactics to employ with the players we have . The loss of Roo being as dramatic as it gets.

Expectation for 2010 is based on 2009....this reflects on how the opposition plays us and what sort of game plan we are able to put out there on the day.

Nick was always going to be irreplaceable ...thus Plan B . Gram also is a huge loss. As others have said , the 4 points is all that matters. After all to loose one game is pretty good , except ifyo compare it to last years run ....but circumstances change.

People forget that there are 2 teams out there .... the Dogs were as responsible for ugly footy as was St Kilda.

I look at 2010 as a year where we get some games into the younger guys as well as develop a plan B ( which we are being forced into ).


One week at a time