Why aren't I convinced?

[rodgerfox]

I'm just not convinced of us this year.

To say that whilst we're 4-1 and having beaten Sydney, Collingwood, the Dogs and Freo sounds strange.

But I tend to see footy in the context of the season more than just the final score.

For those comfortably wearing rose-coloured glasses, look away now....

Collingwood kicked themselves out of the game - like we did in the GF last year.

Sydney, well we won fair and square although it was close. And Roo bobbed up in the last Q when it was up for grabs.

Clearly we pinched it off the Dogs and we let Freo nearly kick 100 points against us.


We haven't looked good. Our skills have been horrible, and we're struggling to score.
We're getting beaten in contests and clearances.
We don't have Roo.
I don't think we've controlled games like we did last year.

The positive is of course, that whilst we're down on form we're winning games.

The question really is, can we turn this around?

Maybe we're just struggling to settle with Ball out of the team, and further so with Roo out.


But we can't continue playing the way we are and expect to really contend, I wouldn't think.

The one thing that is apparent, is that we have a crack and don't give up.


Anyone else feeling uneasy about 2010?

[Solar]

RF

I see it as a marathon. Last year we peaked at the wrong time an despite toughing out the finals we were not running on top of the ground come the grand final. Like grand slams you can't win it in the first week but you can lose it.

What we need to consistant improvement slowly whilst grinding out results. The fixture has also been tough and it's hard to tell this early in the season.

Lets wait till the pies or swans lose some players to injury or form. Long way to go

[SainterK]

Two words, Jason Gram.

Biggest misconception is that we have reverted to this tough grinding style of play in the absence of Roo, when in fact we started playing this way in the absence of Gram.

He is sorely missed for his impact on play, run and carry, and to be honest, a bit of spark about the side. Underrated, especially given his form that he has carried since the GF.

His absence has also meant that Goddard has not been able to play forward in bursts, and he is probably the closest to Roo in aerobic capacity and setting up of play.

It could also be argued that given we progressed all the way to the GF, it resulted in a later preseason than most and our form will be later to blossom than other teams bundled out early in 2009.

I feel comfortable about the fact we have beaten three teams in tight games, that I believe will be there in September, in a style that the boys have dictated (very important)

I guess to your question of feeling uneasy, I would go for a big negative!

PS - We are also 5-1, which sounds an awful lot better than 4-1

[saintsRrising]

I'm just not convinced of us this year.

To say that whilst we're 4-1 and having beaten Sydney, Collingwood, the Dogs and Freo sounds strange.

5-1


However yes this year does seem to bea lot more competitive.

[bigred]

Very uneasy.

But then...we keep winning.

Skills have a lot of room for improvement and that can come.

We are winning ugly, which is fine.

We are missing the best player in the comp.

As long as they keep winning, it makes it hard to complain.

We do have some serious issues with our F50 setup and basic skills entering said F50.

Plenty, PLENTY of room for improvement.

[saintsRrising]

We haven't looked good. Our skills have been horrible, and we're struggling to score.

Maybe we're just struggling to settle with Ball out of the team,?

While Luke did snag 3 goals this weekend I cannot see how he would improve our skills, or goal kicking power, or attacking run.

[ralphsmith]

Are we having a slump right now? It looks like it, but i'm not sure.

I get the feeling we're keeping it low key during all these 6 day breaks. The foot is off the accelerator, we're playing slow, defensive football that minimises the run our players have to endure to prolong their fitness, enthusiasm and energy throughout the season. But the discipline, massive heart and character of our team means we can switch it on for a short period of time and win games.

The best player in the league is also injured.

We are playing far from out best at the moment. Far from it.

I can see why some people may not be convinced, but personally i have a ridiculous belief in the team this year. I think we're going to erupt in the latter half of the year.

[Beekay]

We are playing average and are still winning and are still very hungry. See the players reaction after the game?

All I have to say is that we are 5-1 and have not been hitting targets.

We can get a lot better!

[35...LEGEND]

Are we having a slump right now? It looks like it, but i'm not sure.

I get the feeling we're keeping it low key during all these 6 day breaks. The foot is off the accelerator, we're playing slow, defensive football that minimises the run our players have to endure to prolong their fitness, enthusiasm and energy throughout the season. But the discipline, massive heart and character of our team means we can switch it on for a short period of time and win games.

The best player in the league is also injured.

We are playing far from out best at the moment. Far from it.

I can see why some people may not be convinced, but personally i have a ridiculous belief in the team this year. I think we're going to erupt in the latter half of the year.

Almost did when i read that........

Hope you are right

[busso mick]

We have looked indifferent in our last two games but managed to get over the line in one of them. Ross Lyon has looked a bit bewildered at our execution in the last 2 weeks, so there is no doubt there is massive room for improvement.

The positive for me is when the pressure has been on against Collingwood, Fremantle & Bulldogs we have lifted en masse in the last quarter. The ability to go up a gear when it is needed and the players are tiring is what has made Geelong a success in the last 3 years and is mandatory come finals time.

We are a work in progress at the moment and 5-1 is pretty good considering who we have played and our late start to preseason.

[maverick]

We are certainly playing below our ability, but when you are missing the best player in the comp, that is bound to happen in the short term.

The Doggies we may have pinched, the other games were won fair and square. The Pies did not kick themselves out of the game as we did in the GF last year, their kicking and skill level all round the ground were sub standard. This is because they are lowly skilled and the pressure we were placing on them. The shots they missed for goal were in the main difficult, not the easy ones we missed. They are not up to us.

This year will be easier than last year, make no mistake, the Cats have dropped a rung (hunger and age), the Doggies are coming to the end of their window (age) and the pack chasing are a year or two away. if we play to our level of last year, and maybe a rung below, we are a good chance. We have played most of the best already and beaten them all.

We are certainly playing more defensive footy, which means we look to be struggling IMO. Hopefully its a symptom of finding a half forward line, time will tell. Big game this week.

[Con Gorozidis]

As R Walls article last week pointed out - we are well down on importants stats/indicators from last year. The only kpi we are doing well on is winning.

So guess its a glass half full/empty situation. The counter argument is what if we starting getting these performance areas back up? Then we are unbeatable.

But ur right if we continue to play as we are - we are vulnerable for sure.

[The Craw]

I think the common consensus is that champion teams are built up from defense first, refined and then concentrated on attack.
Rightly so, Roo was our pivot or clutch player and having him out of the side is a huge loss.
My reading is that Lyon is now reformatting the game plan from defense first, as he did in 2006, minimizing the margin of error by strangling teams defensively whilst trying to tweak the attacking side of the saint’s game plan.
In doing this the result is a very negative and clustered footy game. The positive is that it still gives the saints a chance to win and time to readjust with minimal damage on the scoreboard.
We have seen flashes of attack when the saints get it right.
The question is, do we have the cattle to execute a revised game plan in Roo’s absence.
I think we do, but it’s probabaly going to take a few more weeks to perfect. Having Gram out has been a big loss as it has upset the back structure.
I would guess once he is back in the side it will release Goddard, as we saw against the shockers and give the Saints the opportunity to play the style of game we all know and love.

[matrix]

well last year i was very confident
lost a flag

this year im not as confident
so its looking better this year then

[bigred]

The positive is that it still gives the saints a chance to win and time to readjust with minimal damage on the scoreboard

Yeah I think that is pretty much on the money..

Having Gram out has been a big loss as it has upset the back structure.

Yeah massive. Back six takes priority atm or so it seems.

Gram is a huge loss.

[markp]

It's May... come finals, April-May form will be about as relevant as our NAB cup form, and all that will matter is that we kept winning.

The best thing about friday night was that just about the only people who never gave up on us were the ones in Saints jumpers out on the ground. Our players believed, their players did not.

[meher baba]

I agree that we haven't looked that great so far this season. Nor have the Cats. But I still reckon that - assuming we can get Riewoldt back in reasonable shape - both teams are playing at a level which is consistently above the rest of the comp and I would expect to see them line up again in this year's GF.

The Dogs, Pies, Swans and Lions might all conceivably beat us (or Geelong) on their day: but, in finals footy, their "day" is far less likely to come up.

The Pies at the MCG in a final are probably the biggest threat, but with a forward line built around the highly taggable Medhurst, the inconsistent Davis and the low-scoring Cloke, they will struggle to kick enough points against us to win a game.

If we play the Dogs in a final this year (and their odds on getting there are widening by the week), we won't be anywhere near as nervous as we were last year.

The Swans and Lions are dangerous at home, but you would expect us easily to beat both of their current lineups in a final at the MCG (and, if we can't, we wouldn't have a hope in the GF anyway).

Barring a massive form reversal, I don't rate the other teams.

So, as I see it, we are extremely good things to make and win a PF again this year (with Riewoldt, of course).

Could we then go on to beat the Cats? Unfortunately, my gut feeling is that, at best, it won't be any easier this year than last year. They are an extremely impressive outfit.

[bigred]

I think that we will be better at the business end.

Just my gut feeling, but when you see the mental focus that was displayed on Friday, this group have just massive belief.

Throw a FIT...a FIT Riewoldt in there.......

This is a very good football side here.

[Pwoit]

Post subject: Why aren't I convinced?

Because you are RogerFox

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

I do have concerns, but the fact that we keep on winning against the likes of Collingwood and the Bulldogs is a huge plus. We clearly have the "wood" on them, which means they not only have to be able to beat us physically, but mentally as well, which they're clearly not doing.
Geelong is another matter, though.
They've lost a couple, but are looking in better "list" shape than at this time last year, with Ottens playing and playing well early, Ablett continuing on his merry way and apparently having significant improvement from Varcoe, who provides Andrew Lovett like run and carry.
Then there's the continued improvement from Selwood, who's still just 21, or whatever and especially Harry Taylor (who already had the wood on Roo before this year) and guys like Mitch Duncan. Throw in Podsiadly (who might be almost like Heatley was for us in '97) and they could easily be even harder to beat than they were last year. We could do without that.
And despite us beating them a few weeks ago, Collingwood look to be significantly better than they were last year. The ones who were doing well for them last year seem to be mostly doing so again and many others look to have stepped up, or been added. Thomas is going much, much better, Travis Cloke is playing well again, Chris Dawes looks like giving them another good, big target up forward and guys like Sidebottom, Beams and Wellingham look to have improved, as has Harry O'Brien. Medhurst is going better after his injury riddled 2009 and they've added Ball and Jolly.
We added Lovett and Peake to our list and the less said about those additions the better, it looks. So we're going in with pretty much the same list as last year, which is good in terms of them playing well as a team (as they know each other so well), but it puts us behind the Bulldogs (Hall), Pies (Ball and Jolly) Geelong (Podsiadly and Duncan) and Brisbane (Fev, Goose- going well, Raines etc) for additions from last year (unless Jesse Smith comes good).
And looking through our team from Friday night it's hard to find anyone who's going significantly better than they were last year, except Gwilt, CJ and hopefully Jack. Geary is going pretty well, but he started last year well, too and was getting more possies then, I'd say. So our "kids" aren't exactly knocking the door down to break into the senior team yet and Armo probably isn't going any better than Ball was. And of course we don't currently have Roo (or Gram).
So we have to find it from within. Friday night showed again that we clearly have the will, so we just have to find the "way". Our ultra-negative game plan for the game against Port and most of the game on Friday night was like a return to the tactics that didn't work when Lyon first took over the coaching role, so I believe we just need to find the appropriate balance between defense and attack. We still have plenty of ability and class, so we just need to ulilise it, along with the incredible will to win. Maybe we need to be a little less reactive (to our opponents and how they play) and a bit more proactive.
We're a better "team" than possibly all of them and need to start acting like it. Enough of these close shaves.

[older saint]

i think the team is a taking a more "Geelong" style appraoch tot hings tis year, play best football when it matters at the season' send rather than a collingwood who are perenial Jly premiers.
We are also learning a new style with changes to the game plan from last year and also since Roo went down. These will take time to master.

Expect more shut down type games like Friday night until Roo is back , which personally i could not care as long as we win".

5-1 is a good return.

[Milan Faletic]

A lot of teams lose games while they are in a slump.

We are lucky enough or maybe good enough to win games while we are not playing really well.

We have also beaten the other three teams in the Top 4, four teams in the top 8 and North is not as bad as we made them look.

I must agree that I am not as confident this year but if you turned back the clock two years and we were 5-1 after 6 rounds, we would be happy.

The squad is in a transition process where they are experimenting to find a plan B without Roo. In that time we have also lost Gram and Ray. The loss of Ball (and Lovett) is probably more significant than we are willing to admit and we are trying to rejig the midfield without him as well.

I think we will get better. I think the squad realises now that the Home and Away Season is in some ways, practice for the Finals and you can experiment with the team in order to get the formula right for September.

The last two Minor premiers lost the GF so as long as we are in a position to compete for the flag and we are getting wins on the board, I think we are going ok. Our first target will be 12 wins, which should put us in to the 8. I reckon 16 wins will put us at least in the Top 4 if not higher. this means we can afford 5 losses between now and the Finals. If we can keep that down to 3 losses, we will finish 18 and 4 and almost certainly Top 2.

The challenge for the coaching staff is to keep winning games and also keep blooding some of the young players. The risk at this early stage of the season is that we could drop a game or two by not going with the tried and true. Right now, I think we are getting it right.

[Joffa Burns]

Every year the premiership teams game style and plan is copied to some extent the following year by the other clubs as they seek to emulate the best team in the competition.

This year (2010) the other clubs have copied the runner up and are playing Saints style footy. I have never seen the game so intense and contested as I have thus far in 2010.

We have also become the hunted in 2010 where we caught a lot of teams off guard with the so called 'frontal pressure' and hard running and tackling in 2009.

The fact we are 5-1 against quality opposition without Roo and the above factors tells me we will be in really good shape when it all comes together late in the season.

Great teams find a way to win even when they shouldn't and this team has the self belief to go all the way this year.

As much as RF wants us to fail, I really can't see it happening.

[spert]

I remember some Geelong mates telling me they wern't totally convinced that the Cats were going to go all the way last year. It is normal to have reservations when we kick low scores and have lost a champion forward (and also have our best line breaking runner in Gram out). More important is the winning frame of mind, the expectation to win if you work hard, and to me it is more noticable than last season. We should be encouraged by the improvement of Gwilt, Geary, Jones and even Gram so far -not to mention McEvoy coming along nicely and the promise of Steven and Stanley in the wings. Our performances against the Dogs and Woods shut a lot of critics up, and now all they can whine about is our ugly footy. If we do manage to get a flag this season with ugly footy, it wont matter, as the historical list of premierships doesn't have an adjacent column showing "flashy" "ugly" "tough" "ruining the game as a spectacle" "etc etc ..it just shows "Premier"
Show faith and your faith will be rewarded.

[Splayd]

You make very valid points RF but I'd like to draw your attention to a great point made by The Craw earlier.

The current style we are playing (for the last two games anyway) is reminicent of how we played when Lyon first took over. As Craw stated, it seems that Lyon is focusing on defence whilst tweaking with the forward setup looking for the right formula. Effectively he is ensuring we don't lose (or get pumped) whilst trialing players up forward in the absence of Roo. (Zak, Fish and even Gilbert for a brief time had a go up there) At the business end of the last two games he has thrown caution to the wind to get the result. Worked aginst the Dogs - not so against Port (wayward kicking?)

When Gram gets back it will add a little more flexibility with that forward setup and allow us to kick goals to win as well as strangle teams and I do think it will come together like this.

Assuming Roo returns round 17 - I would hope we would be at least 12-4 and looking at our last five games this year - that is more than enough to push for top four with an added element of uncertainty for opposition teams in the forward setup due to this roo-less period.

Freo did kick almost 100 against us but conbsidering that they average 115 per game sans the saints game then we still restricted them to 4 goals less than their average.

Also remember that other teams have had almost 5 weeks head start for this season in terms of fitness and skills training due to us playing in the GF last year. It's no surprise that Freo and Sydney look so sharp as they all missed the finals last year.

I am a bit concerned but only that we don't lose too many before we get our full strength team back. Not in terms of skills, endevour or talent which I've no doubt will be 10/10 come late August.