In my opinion in 5 years time the Saints will be in dire straits...why knock yours and mine beloved Saints? Well I am not taking a personal dig at anyone in particular, and we all know how agonisingly close we came this year...for me it was one of the most painful moments I have experienced when the Cats kicked that final goal....
LIST MANAGEMENT............
St Kilda has been topping up the past 3 years, taking a punt on players in there mid 20's...sometimes players in there 30's and IMO this is going to take a toll long term. Recent drafts have been a weakness, Luke Ball the prime example and not getting ahead of myself but Ben McEvoy hasn't lived up to expectations...Tom Lynch, Rhys Stanley & Nicholas Heyne still haven't proved anything to me.
Where will the list be in 5-10 years time? We are going to have a gap in the senior age group UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO TOP UP each & every year.
What I see in the near future is Darrell Baldock handing the prermiership cup to Nick Riedwolt....however long term I the Saints ending up in a position like Richmond or North Melbourne, trading away the deadwood for draft picks to "rebuild"
Any thoughts???
Are the Saints in trouble?
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fisher_fan
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I don't agree, I think the list management has maintained a great balance....
We have some fanastic kids, many of which had valuable game time this year. Next year will be the time of the likes of Geary, Armitage and Steven.
I think Ben is fantastic, and shouldered the responsibility well when he filled the rucking position through the year. He has much to learn, but I cannot fault his development.
We have some fanastic kids, many of which had valuable game time this year. Next year will be the time of the likes of Geary, Armitage and Steven.
I think Ben is fantastic, and shouldered the responsibility well when he filled the rucking position through the year. He has much to learn, but I cannot fault his development.
Could anyone here really give a s*** where we are in 10 years if we win a flag or two right now?
Fk I'd rather finish in the bottom 4 a few years running if we've won a flag than just continue to be contenders, never drop out but never win the thing (like Sydney...minus 2005)
FWIW I think Rossco are drafting very well.
Jack, Armo, Geary to come into the middle
Lynch the tall forward, Heyne the small forward
Zac full back for 10 years
McEvoy and Stanley rucks for 10 years
BJ and Gilbert are only 23-24.
We're fine.
Fk I'd rather finish in the bottom 4 a few years running if we've won a flag than just continue to be contenders, never drop out but never win the thing (like Sydney...minus 2005)
FWIW I think Rossco are drafting very well.
Jack, Armo, Geary to come into the middle
Lynch the tall forward, Heyne the small forward
Zac full back for 10 years
McEvoy and Stanley rucks for 10 years
BJ and Gilbert are only 23-24.
We're fine.
The system's set up so that time at the top is counterbalanced by time at the bottom.
Our strong period (2004-2009 - 3 prelim finishes and a GF appearance) was created by our weakness in the years beforehand. Our team depends on core players who were all drafted within a few years of each other (2000 - 2002). I think it's inevitable that in five years, when the core of our team is all retiring at the same time, we'll slip. the trick is to win a flag before then. And to not slip too far, but we're still developing young players, so we won't be completely screwed when it happens.
There are exceptions to the rule - Richmond and Freo seem to permanently suck, while Sydney seemed to make the finals a ridiculous number of years in a row, but most clubs won't do that.
Our strong period (2004-2009 - 3 prelim finishes and a GF appearance) was created by our weakness in the years beforehand. Our team depends on core players who were all drafted within a few years of each other (2000 - 2002). I think it's inevitable that in five years, when the core of our team is all retiring at the same time, we'll slip. the trick is to win a flag before then. And to not slip too far, but we're still developing young players, so we won't be completely screwed when it happens.
There are exceptions to the rule - Richmond and Freo seem to permanently suck, while Sydney seemed to make the finals a ridiculous number of years in a row, but most clubs won't do that.
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Bernard Shakey
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Legendary
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A few factors:
1. The Gold Coast/West Sydney. The drafts from this year until 2012 are compromised ... they do not contain nearly the same level of quality talent, and unless you have multiple picks inside the top 20, you are not going to be getting much value.
Hence drafting guys like Lovett and Peake, who can play 4 years and 80+ games is going to give you better value over the next few years, until the draft returns to it's original uncompromised form.
2. Last year, we attracted a lot of kids to the club -- Lynch, Heyne, Stanley, Smith, Cahill, Simpkin, Dawson (was still only 21), Gaertner, Tungatalum, McGarry, McGrath.
That's 11 players under the age of 21 we bought into the club last year.
3. Realistically, once our "prime" group of players (Riewoldt, Kosi, Hayes, Dal Santo, Montagna, Fisher etc.) retire, we are going to need to rebuild in some form anyway.
4. We have timed it so that by the time we hopefully bottom out around 2012-2013, the draft is back to it's uncompromised best, and dual-premiership coach Ross Lyon can restock with kids and take this team back to the top
1. The Gold Coast/West Sydney. The drafts from this year until 2012 are compromised ... they do not contain nearly the same level of quality talent, and unless you have multiple picks inside the top 20, you are not going to be getting much value.
Hence drafting guys like Lovett and Peake, who can play 4 years and 80+ games is going to give you better value over the next few years, until the draft returns to it's original uncompromised form.
2. Last year, we attracted a lot of kids to the club -- Lynch, Heyne, Stanley, Smith, Cahill, Simpkin, Dawson (was still only 21), Gaertner, Tungatalum, McGarry, McGrath.
That's 11 players under the age of 21 we bought into the club last year.
3. Realistically, once our "prime" group of players (Riewoldt, Kosi, Hayes, Dal Santo, Montagna, Fisher etc.) retire, we are going to need to rebuild in some form anyway.
4. We have timed it so that by the time we hopefully bottom out around 2012-2013, the draft is back to it's uncompromised best, and dual-premiership coach Ross Lyon can restock with kids and take this team back to the top
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Legendary
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Re: Are the Saints in trouble?
How many Brownlow Medals are Lynch and Heyne supposed to have won after 12 months at the club?fisher_fan wrote:Ben McEvoy hasn't lived up to expectations...Tom Lynch, Rhys Stanley & Nicholas Heyne still haven't proved anything to me.
Or would a B&F be enough?
As for McEvoy ... in his second year as a ruckman, he held down the #2 ruck spot in the best team in the AFL for 11 games. He kicked goals, took marks, won hitouts and generally started to look like a footballer.
If you'd seen Dean Cox at the same age, you would have wondered what zoo he walked out of, that's how uncoordinated and lacking in ability he was. McEvoy is miles ahead of Cox, Jolly and similar ruckman at the same age.
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SydneySainter
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It's not worth losing sleep over because it's inevitable that what goes around, comes around there will be a point in the not too distant future where we have to do our time at the bottom, again.
This isn't me being negative, but the draft works on a structure where success is cyclical. Some teams only get to be contenders for two - three years, others enjoy longer stints (such as us) and others spend considerably longer near the top than they do near the bottom, but at some point you have to do your spell. Though Sydney have argued that theory, as their list is based more so on trading for experience, rather than develop youth, as Paul Roos would argue that being an interstate team in a northern market, they can't afford to cut their losses and spend two - to - three seasons developing youth. But this style of list management risks creating a playing squad that remains competitive throughout the majority of the season, but has limited success in the finals. I know they did make back-to-back grand finals, but that is when their list was at their absolute prime. Being well-coached helps as well.
The same applies to teams at the lower reaches of the ladder. Some will remain there for a limited period, some do a lengthier stretch, while others through poor recruiting and list management will miss their spot in the cue to become a contender and have to start at the back of the line, again.
This is why it is so important for the Saints to strike while the iron is hot and snag that flag before their time is past, as we have enjoyed a good period of recent success and it's now time to have something to show for it.
This isn't me being negative, but the draft works on a structure where success is cyclical. Some teams only get to be contenders for two - three years, others enjoy longer stints (such as us) and others spend considerably longer near the top than they do near the bottom, but at some point you have to do your spell. Though Sydney have argued that theory, as their list is based more so on trading for experience, rather than develop youth, as Paul Roos would argue that being an interstate team in a northern market, they can't afford to cut their losses and spend two - to - three seasons developing youth. But this style of list management risks creating a playing squad that remains competitive throughout the majority of the season, but has limited success in the finals. I know they did make back-to-back grand finals, but that is when their list was at their absolute prime. Being well-coached helps as well.
The same applies to teams at the lower reaches of the ladder. Some will remain there for a limited period, some do a lengthier stretch, while others through poor recruiting and list management will miss their spot in the cue to become a contender and have to start at the back of the line, again.
This is why it is so important for the Saints to strike while the iron is hot and snag that flag before their time is past, as we have enjoyed a good period of recent success and it's now time to have something to show for it.
Last edited by SydneySainter on Sun 11 Oct 2009 11:43pm, edited 1 time in total.
Bad management is bad management
Re: Are the Saints in trouble?
Can't stay at the top for ever. Eventually we will go out of the top eight & have to rebuild. As for our new recurits they've hardly had a chance to prove themselves. McEvoy has only been going for 2 years... hardly any ruckmen are any good at his stage. And just because our youngsters haven't proven anything yet doesn't mean they aren't AFL standard. Look how well Steven went in his 1 and only game & how well armo went in his 3 games.fisher_fan wrote:In my opinion in 5 years time the Saints will be in dire straits...why knock yours and mine beloved Saints? Well I am not taking a personal dig at anyone in particular, and we all know how agonisingly close we came this year...for me it was one of the most painful moments I have experienced when the Cats kicked that final goal....
LIST MANAGEMENT............
St Kilda has been topping up the past 3 years, taking a punt on players in there mid 20's...sometimes players in there 30's and IMO this is going to take a toll long term. Recent drafts have been a weakness, Luke Ball the prime example and not getting ahead of myself but Ben McEvoy hasn't lived up to expectations...Tom Lynch, Rhys Stanley & Nicholas Heyne still haven't proved anything to me.
Where will the list be in 5-10 years time? We are going to have a gap in the senior age group UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO TOP UP each & every year.
What I see in the near future is Darrell Baldock handing the prermiership cup to Nick Riedwolt....however long term I the Saints ending up in a position like Richmond or North Melbourne, trading away the deadwood for draft picks to "rebuild"
Any thoughts???
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kosifantutti23
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Re: Are the Saints in trouble?
Too bad you didn't follow through on this promise from a year ago.fisher_fan wrote:consider my membership gone, bring on the gold coast
Furtius Quo Rdelious
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Batnoe
ausfatcat wrote:If we win a premiership within the next year or two I would take 5 wooden spoons in a row.undecided wrote:In 5 years, bottom eight. In the years, challenging for the premiership.
We will be fighting Geelong for the top draft picks in a few years.
Serioulsy mate u r a f***** genius
i want a flag and i dont care if we are on bottom of ladder for 10 years, i do not want to be thereabouts without a flag, i want one....
If we had won this year and finished last next year i wouldnt care
if our list management f**** up in 5 years time for this year to win one i will be stoked
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Milan Faletic
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Milan Faletic
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Re: Are the Saints in trouble?
Yes I have thoughts. Who is Nick Riedwolt and Darrell?fisher_fan wrote: What I see in the near future is Darrell Baldock handing the prermiership cup to Nick Riedwolt...."
Any thoughts???
Being a fan of Carrie Fisher or is that Fischer doesnt qaulify yrew too bea en xpirt.
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SteveStevens66
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tbh that would almost be ideal. Get a premiership now then stock upausfatcat wrote:If we win a premiership within the next year or two I would take 5 wooden spoons in a row.undecided wrote:In 5 years, bottom eight. In the years, challenging for the premiership.
We will be fighting Geelong for the top draft picks in a few years.
on the best young talent then get atleast 1 more premiership.
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Ghost Like
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Basil: 'What else is there to do?!!"
Basil: 'What else is there to do?!!"
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