The Ultimate QF Match Preview - Saints v Pies

[DaVe86]

Hi guys, you might remember me from earlier in the year. Here is my QF preview of this weeks game and finals in general. It's as unbiased as possible.

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With the finals series upon us, and the stakes higher, this weeks match preview hits epic proportions. You may need to put a bit of time aside to read it all...but I guarantee you this is the ultimate guide to the finals series and in particular the game on Sunday.


The first qualifying final between St.Kilda and Collingwood will be played on the MCG on Sunday at 2:40pm. This is the blockbuster battle between 1st and 4th on the ladder with the reward for victory a week off and a place in the preliminary final. The loser will utilise its second chance and play a home game against the winner of the elimination final between Adelaide and Essendon.

Congratulations to St.Kilda on winning the minor premiership. 19 straight wins marks what was truly a fantastic year for the Saints. Nonetheless, the Saints lost 2 of its last 3 games and looked somewhat out of touch against Melbourne on the weekend. I am not reading too far into the last month as St.Kilda had already secured top spot by this time and the motivation was purely on preservation and management as opposed to hitting top gear. However, there will remain doubters and sceptics until the Saints win the Grand Final. Their first statement needs to be made against Collingwood on Sunday.

Collingwood have been largely regarded as the in-form team in the comp, winning 12 of its last 14 games, half of those against teams in the top 8. Though out of those wins, a gaping hole emerges. None of them were against St.Kilda or Geelong who must be regarded as the benchmarks right now, regardless of late season form.

Collingwood would have been eyeing off 3rd spot and thus a qualifying final against Geelong. I think an extra point against the Western Bulldogs would’ve sealed this. However, to the Bulldogs credit, they were able to storm home in the 2nd half to pinch 3rd spot off the Magpies. Geelong has only won 5 of its last 9 games and will be without Steve Johnson until atleast the preliminaries. Chapman, Rooke and Ottens still carry question marks as well. The loss to the Doggies means the Pies must face the top of the ladder Saints.

But this minor hiccup presents an opportunity for Collingwood. If there is a time to face St.Kilda, it is in the first round of finals whilst those question marks still hover over the Saints. These questions include:

- Are the Saints capable of playing the MCG? (St.Kilda played its first game on the MCG in Round 22 against Melbourne and looked out of sorts in the first half)
- Can the Saints play in front of 100,000?
- Are the Saints out of form or have they purely been preserving themselves for the finals?
- And most importantly...Can the Saints win the GF?

These are all examined in this preview.


The MCG Factor

Given the fact Collingwood plays the majority of their games on the MCG, this has to be considered a Collingwood home game. Final ladder positions now mean nothing. Everything restarts. Despite the fact the Saints finished on top of the ladder, it is Collingwood who will feel the most comfort playing on the MCG.

The last time these 2 sides played on the MCG was in the Semi-Final last year. The Saints were resounding victors, knocking Collingwood out of the finals. However, in Round 19 that year, the Pies had a character building victory against the odds with an undermanned team on the MCG.

In terms of 2009, there is only 1 insight we can get into St.Kilda’s ability to play on the G. That is last weeks game against Melbourne...and ultimately the Saints didn’t have to put much energy into that game...so the verdict is left open.

But the one thing that did interest me is that the Demons were able to get loose numbers wide. The MCG is as wide as it is long, so the Demons found space on the wings. The Saints are drilled to force teams wide by protecting the corridor. At the Dome, this can be done easily because it is much narrower. But on the MCG, getting numbers through the corridor leaves a lot of space, and St.Kilda’s zone will have to adjust and spread.

A truly interesting point to make is the contrasting styles between the sides. As I said, the Saints try to force you wide. Collingwood on the other hand prefer to play wide. Does this mean that Collingwood will be playing into St.Kilda’s hand and in essence doing the work for them?? Or does it mean that the game can be played on Collingwood’s terms and they will be able to get loose numbers out wide?? An interesting point to ponder.


Ultimately, I think the whole notion that the Saints will be struggle on the G is a bit overdone. There are no players in the Saints 22 that have not played on the G in the past, and their game style will have no trouble holding up. But you cannot go past the fact that this remains in essence a home game for Collingwood and that the Pies do carry some advantage into the game.


The Crowd

I also doubt that the big crowd will worry the Saints. They have played some blockbusters this year. I was at the Geelong game and the noise in that match was equivalent to any Collingwood game I have been to this year barring ANZAC day. With the roof shut, the crowd feels double its size. And the Saints have had some experience in tight ones...although it is notable that they had a chance to win both games against Essendon and North Melbourne but blew each.

You would expect both sides to come out pretty nervous, but very fired up.


The Form-line

At the beginning of Round 22, I thought Collingwood were the in-form side. Having won 12 of 13, the Pies were looking very ominous. But the loss to the Bulldogs on the weekend was disappointing. The Saints however, coming off 2 losses, had a comfortable yet uninspiring win against Melbourne. So in essence, the Saints carry the winning form into finals, yet I still think Collingwood carry the momentum.

The loss to the Bulldogs has to be put into perspective. I have no doubt Malthouse was more than happy to see a less physical game and try to defend the lead. Both sides stacked their backlines. There was not one holding the ball decision all game. It was a match Terry Wallace would’ve admired because he invented that style. Numbers behind the ball, a lot of switching and uncontested footy. The game played between the 2 50 metre arcs.

Ultimately, this style of game was not going to beat the Bulldogs who are more skilful and averse to playing uncontested football. I think Malthouse simply tried to preserve the percentage the Magpies had over the Bulldogs, but it backfired. If the game counted for more, I think you would’ve seen a more contested style of game emerge.


The Last meeting

Round 7 seems such a long time away. St.Kilda gave Collingwood a massacre, winning 128-40. Dal Santo dominated with 38 possessions, whilst Riewoldt and Schneider each kicked 5. The Pies were languishing at 3 wins and 4 losses, with a list injury depleted. They would go on to get smacked by Carlton, then win 12 of the next 13 games.

There is no doubt this is a different Collingwood than the one that faced St.Kilda in Round 7. Collingwood turned a massive 51 point loss against Carlton in Round 8 to a massive 54 point win only 10 weeks later. So it goes to show that a full list and good form makes a huge difference. But you can’t go past the fact that the Saints accounted for Collingwood easy and thus have to go in as comfortable favourites this week. St.Kilda are a much more mature team than Carlton and such a big turn around is a huge ask.



At the Selection Table

This will be the biggest talking point and debate all week. Each side has real headaches this week...but the good sort of headaches. Players who were once considered locks in the top 22 are now playing VFL football and are desperately trying to force their way back in for the finals. But displacing players that are performing is becoming increasingly difficult. It’s hard for a coach and selection committee to break up a winning formula.

The most interest surrounding the St.Kilda lineup will be whether Luke Ball and Max Hudghton are recalled. Both were fantastic on the weekend in the VFL, and seem required players. Both bring experience and hardness into a game that is going to be played at frightful intensity.

The other player who has really cemented himself into the top 22 has been Michael Gardiner. Room will be have to made for him...but does that come at the expense of King or McEvoy. King brings a wealth of finals experience, having won 3 Grand Finals in a row in 3 different competitions. Yet McEvoy probably brings more form and versatility. However, it was King on the weekend who performed best, whilst McEvoy was very quiet.

I think ultimately, the Saints must bring back Ball, Hudghton and Gardiner. That is going to mean sacrificing 3 guys who are in good nick. It’s tough, but you can’t deny the above 3 are guys you want in your side.

If I were Ross Lyon, it would be:

In: Ball, Hudghton, Gardiner
Out: Eddy, Dawson, McEvoy

I don’t think the Saints can play both Dawson and Hudghton in the same team. It is so tough on Dawson, but Hudghton is a proven performer and has given his whole career to the Saints in the hope of winning a flag. Denying him that opportunity is as harsh as it comes.

Much interest will also surround the fitness of Hayes and Riewoldt, each who ended the Melbourne game with some injury concerns. You can just about guarantee both will play and you would think it was more caution than anything on the Saints part.


The lineup for the Saints:

FB: Baker, Hudghton, Gilbert
HB: Blake, Fisher, Gram
C: Montagna, Hayes, Dal Santo
HF: Goddard, Riewoldt, Dempster
F: Milne, Koschitzke, Schneider

R: Gardiner, Ball, C. Jones

I: King, Ray, R. Clarke, McQualter



Collingwood also have a number of dilemmas. Firstly, the Pies have 2 forced changes this week you would think. 1 is to make room for Pendlebury who was a late withdrawal with Back spasms against the Bulldogs. You would presume he is an automatic inclusion if fit. The Pies also have to bring back a tall defender to play on Kosi. Leigh Brown was dropped against the Doggies, partly because of match-up’s, but on paper because of illness. Brown has played 20 games now for Collingwood and seems an automatic re-inclusion, although Nathan Brown and Ben Reid will push strongly for selection. You would think Malthouse will go with Leigh Brown who has the trust of the coaching panel at this stage and can make-shift in a number of roles.


Then you have a whole raft of players in dominant VFL form. Sidebottom, Marty Clarke and Dawes are all very close to selection. Then you have one guy who goes by the name of Anthony Rocca who has been kicking a steady 2 goals a game since his VFL return. Not setting the world on fire, but is yet to play in conditions that suit him either.

I would make the big call and bring Rocca back. Preferably, I would’ve liked to see him get a run against the Bulldogs, but they were probably not the right team for him. St.Kilda I believe are a better fit for Rocca.

If Rocca were to get a matchup with Hudghton or Dawson, they are not the sort of players who would run off him. He could sit in Full Forward with comfort knowing his opponent is not going to run off him. If Lyon decides to use Hudghton on Anthony, then Jack can lead high up the field and get him out of his comfort zone, leaving Rocca with the 2nd ranked defender. I think given the contested nature this game is going to be played in, having a big target up forward eases the pressure on the midfield to be too precise under pressure. Simply bomb it long to Rocca and let him compete.

The majority of St.Kilda supporters would claim that they would love to see Rocca back because they will run off him with ease...but the truth is that Pebbles remains the sort of player teams would prefer out because he can lift for a big game.

In: Rocca, Pendlebury, L.Brown
Out: Dick, McCarthy, Goldsack

Very tough calls on the outs. I think Dick was exposed against a quality side last week. Even against Sydney and Richmond, I thought his form was not great, but he got away with it with a few lucky bounces and some poor opponents on him. He was not sighted against the Bulldogs, and I fear he will go missing again against the best tackling team in the comp. His kicking is not there yet, and he is too small and unsure with his hands in close.

McCarthy got concussed and may be in doubt...but regardless he does not have enough senior match practice this year to play against the best side in the comp. 2010 is J-Mac’s year.

Then I feel Goldsack may lack a matchup. The Saints possess no mid-sized forwards for him to play on. Though I do think he could be a good matchup for Goddard around the ground because he is tall, versatile, quick and tackles hard. His pressure could worry Goddard who plays his best when loose. This could mean Wellingham is dropped considering his game was very poor on the weekend. Though I worry about dropping 3 smalls for 2 talls and a small. Team-balance is important and Wellingham can tag...kind of.

Clarke, Sidebottom, Reid, Nathan Brown and Barham all fail to make the side. Johnson and Toovey have still done enough to hold their spots in the side.

The team:

B: Shaw, Prestigiacomo, O’Brien
HB: Maxwell, L.Brown, Toovey
C: Didak, Swan, Johnson
HF: Davis, Cloke, Lockyer
FF: Rocca, Anthony, Thomas

R: Fraser, O’Bree, Pendlebury

I: Wood, Beams, Medhurst, Wellingham/Goldsack


No doubt 2 very good teams on paper. St.Kilda seem better right across the board, but the eveness of Collingwood is impressive.


The Matchups:

I think we’ll see a very man on man style of game. Each side likes having a loose player in defence, so I think the game will start with a loose player in defence. These are likely to be Maxwell and Goddard or Gilbert. Maxwell is becoming a barometer for the Pies, whilst the St.Kilda defence is renowned for getting back quickly and generating a lot of run. Throughout the midfield but, I think we’re going to see a lot of numbers around the ball and a lot of contested footy. It will mostly be man on man. The Saints are likely to apply a few tags, whilst Collingwood is more likely to go head to head with their opponents.


St.Kilda forward line:

Riewoldt v Prestigiacomo: An impossible matchup for Collingwood. I would rate Roo as the best going around right now...although his goal-kicking under pressure is letting him down. You would think a player of his quality will nail the goals in September however, much the way Franklin did last year.

Riewoldt kicked 5 on Presti in Round 7, but I didn’t think Presti was embarrassed. The Saints were dominating the midfield and were pumping it inside 50 so often. There was not much Presti could do. No doubt this matchup will happen, and Riewoldt will fancy his ability to lead high up the ground. I think Presti will be happy for this to happen, as long as he is marking it outside range. Maxwell will be delivered the responsibility to chop off his leads. It will be interesting to see whether the Saints try to man up Maxwell or get a loose man happening at their end. I think they will try and get a loose man themselves as they would fancy themselves to generate more run.

Koschitzke v L.Brown – Big Kosi has proven a handful this year and his kicking is generally much better. Leigh Brown will return to the side with this project on his mind. Big Kosi will work him around, but will fancy himself 1 on 1 as well. Kosi is taller and more talented. Again, getting the numbers back will be crucial, as well as slowing up the St.Kilda ball movement to ensure no 1 on 1’s are allowed.

Milne v Harry O’Brien – Again, this was a matchup Milne will claim to have won in Round 7. Milne kicked 4 goals. But it has to be noted that Harry restricted Milne to 13 touches. To be honest, those 4 goals were the only times Milne looked dangerous. I thought Harry really stuck to his task, but again it was very hard to limit the forwards with the amount of ball that was coming in. Ultimately, those 4 goals came from some poor marking from Harry, so he can’t afford even 1 minutes of laziness against Milne. Milney is in great form this year and has an ability to pop up even when he is having an average game...as in Round 7. I don’t however think it was the backline who were at fault in Round 7, and therefore I think the matchups will go much the same way.

Schneider v Toovey – Tooves had his colours lowered in Round 7 and will be looking to make amends. Schneider was dominant with 5 goals and must be stopped this time around. Toovey has Schneider done for pace and in the air...but Schneider is very clever and is the perfect complement for the talls around him. Toovey would really make a name for himself if he could play well in the finals. He will always have his knockers, so a big game against the best side on the biggest stage is a must for him.

Heath Shaw v McQualter – I’m thinking the Saints will ensure Shaw is manned up and try to make him accountable. Though Shaw was perhaps Collingwood’s best against the Dogs, his direct opponent Brad Johnson had a massive impact as well. McQualter is another good news story for the Saints. Delisted and then rookie, he has really done all he can to cement a spot in the 22, and will most likely be rewarded with a few finals games. Heath Shaw is Collingwood’s drive out of defence and still remains one of the most important players.


Midfield

How enthralling this will be. The matchup’s I propose are not likely to eventuate, but are purely based on what I feel would be the wisest moves. Let’s see how close I get.

O’Bree v Ball – A head to head matchup between these 2 tough onballers. O’Bree continues to lead Collingwood in key areas such as tackling and clearances, but his footskills have reverted back to their old sloppy ways of late. Luke Ball obviously lacks real damaging footskills as well, so the battle between who can win the clearances will go a long way to determining this game. I think O’Bree is as important as anyone on the Collingwood list, and when he is down, so are the Pies. Ball on the other hand has a point to prove and expect 10+ tackles from him.

Hayes v Pendlebury – Pendlebury is Collingwood’s other dominant clearance player. There is no co-incidence that his vacancy, along with an average game from O’Bree saw the Doggies run rampant in the middle. They won every clearance. Lenny Hayes is one of my favourites. Though he is one of the worst shots on goal going around, he is a dominant midfielder who hits targets and wins hard ball. He is the hardest working player I know. Pendlebury will have to watch him closely but also win a lot of his own footy. Should be a great head to head matchup.

Swan v Jones – I think the Saints will send Clint Jones onto Swan. The option will obviously also be there for him to tag Didak or Davis or even Pendlebury, but I think the Saints number 1 tagger will go onto the Magpies number 1 ball-winner. Jones has had a brilliant year and really found a place in the Saints side as a tagger. Swan on the other hand is brownlow favourite and has been able to outrun every tagger this year. It would be an unbelievable battle between the ultimate stopper and the ultimate runner/ballwinner. No doubt that Swan was a bit down last week and the Bulldogs were really able to win in the midfield.

Swan will have a tough week. He is in court in a civil matter regarding the criminal offence he was charged for. The offence occurred 6 years ago. He is now been sued in civil jurisdiction for the damages the victim incurred. No comment will be made about the case, but it does mean Swan will have a modified training routine this week as he will not be able to train with the main group. This may have some impact on his preparation. It is important to remember that this incident happened 6 years ago when Swan was new on the Collingwood list and had issues. He is a true football success story how he has turned his life around and matured.


Dal Santo v Johnson – Collingwood won’t set many tags, but they no doubt have to put a tag on Dal Santo. 2 weeks ago, the Roo’s were able to limit him to 9 touches. Greenwood did this job. Last week, Dal Santo ran rampant without a tag. The Demons instead elected to tag Montagna, who must now be considered St.Kilda’s prime mover. This is fair enough, but Dal Santo is much more taggable and is so damaging. It’s better to ensure he is shut out, and perhaps go head to head with Montagna.

Montagna v Wellingham – I think Wellingham should be entrusted with the role of running with Montagna. Joey is in such good form and is a real dark-horse for the Brownlow. I have loved watching him play this year. Many would know I have been a long time fan of Montagna, and he has repaid the faith this year. Wellingham is holding onto his position by a thread, so he may be dropped. But given St.Kilda’s incredible midfield, I think Collingwood will need him playing tight on Montagna.

Thomas v Goddard: Goddard may try to play loose in defence. Collingwood would be foolish to allow this to happen, even if it means Maxwell is freed up in the process. Thomas should go defensive forward on him, as he did against Drummond. If Goddard goes midfield, then Thomas follows. Thomas has not been in his best attacking form of late, but he is improving defensively and has done tagging jobs this year, including taking the scalp of Judd in tandem with Johnson. Goddard is such a crucial player and must be watched. I think best case scenario for Collingwood would be having Maxwell loose, and the Saints having Gilbert loose. You would call this close to an even battle considering Maxwell is better at backing into packs and Gilbert is more creative.

Didak v Dempster – I think Dempster will get this role over Jones because he is has an ability to play as a defender as well, whereas I think Jones can be exploited if Didak moves forward. Lyon obviously rates Dempster very highly as he brought him over from Sydney and has put him straight into the team after a knee reconstruction. With guys like Armitage, Steve and Geary all pushing for spots, it goes to show how important Dempster is considered to the team with his ability to do shut down jobs. Didak had a poor game against the Bulldogs and will be looking to make amends.

Obviously Didak did not play in the finals series last year and will be very keen to shine on the big stage. He has had a great year following a disastrous one last year, and has repaid the faith the club has shown in him. This will be yet another intriguing battle if it eventuates.


Collingwood Forward Line

I have been strongly advocating the return of Anthony Rocca this match. I think the reasons become more clear as I go through the matchups. I will proceed on the basis that he is NOT included in the team (which honestly is the likely scenario), and then I will ponder the possibilities if he IS included.

Hudghton/Dawson v Anthony – I feel only 1 of these 2 defender will play, and their job will be on the Magpies leading goal-kicker Jack Anthony. Anthony has refound his touch in the last month but is still not back to his best goal-kicking form. He has discovered an ability to involve himself in games even when he is not kicking goals which is impressive. His weakness however has been against the best defenders, which Hudghton is. Hudghton is one of the toughest players to score goals against, so if he gets this matchup, Anthony will have to work Max over. Equally if the Dawson matchup eventuates.

Cloke v Blake – Saints have used this matchup in the past with great success. However, Cloke is spending a large amount of his time these days up the field...including deep defence. Therefore, as it will be interesting to see if the Saints follow Cloke down...perhaps using someone like Gilbert or Fisher to run with him...or whether they zone back off him and let Cloke wander. Cloke will have too much pace for Blake around the ground, but its the matchup in the forward line that is of most interest.

Medhurst v Fisher – The matchup would work equally well with Gilbert. The Saints would’ve watched the Doggies game with interest and seen Ryan Hargrave win a ridiculous amount of the ball. It is the 2nd time this year Hargrave has had more than 30 possessions playing on Medhurst. Therefore, you would think the Saints would use Fisher or Gilbert in this role as they are the experts at peeling off and generating play out of defence. Medhurst is in terrible form. Though his involvement and fitness during games is improving, his goal-kicking is horrible. He cannot find the goals at the moment and is missing the easiest of set-shots. He is paid to convert, so I’m wondering how patient Mick will be with him. The hope will be that he will lift on the big stage as he has done on ANZAC day in the past. The important thing is that Medhurst is at least more accountable this week and looks to create. He is still responsible for a number of scoring assists over the last month which has been pleasing.

Davis v Baker – If Dick is dropped as I suspect, I think we’ll see more of Davis up forward (especially if Rocca plays). Baker plays the small defensive role and will probably take responsibility for Davis in that position. I think the Saints will be happy for him to win the ball in defence and behind centre...though they may be more cautious of him around the middle. The beauty of the Saints is that they have 3 genuine tagging type players along with a host of attacking midfielders. Collingwood perhaps lack those designated taggers right now. Davis is extremely important. He was another who was down against the Bulldogs and we all know that he doesn’t possess the best finals record. This has been by far his career best year and he has been extremely consistent, but its the finals where he needs to find his best nick. He’ll be an extremely tough matchup for St.Kilda if he hits form.

Gram v Lockyer – Jason Gram has snuck under the radar a bit this year. He is such an important player for the Saints because he is a rebounding back flanker, but he can also break the game open with a long goal. He has spent more time in the midfield this year. Lockyer is the other who continually sneaks under the radar. There are very few weeks where he is not a goal-kicker, and he is usually reliable with ball in hand. I would use him on Gram, and try to make Gram accountable. Teams are surely waking up to the fact that Lockyer’s 2-3 a game are crucial to a Magpies win, so Gram would be very careful leaving him alone. Lockyer lifts for these games and is a fantastic tackler as well.



This ultimately leaves Gilbert free for St.Kilda and Maxwell free for Collingwood.

Now, if Rocca was in, this could change things. Firstly, Saints would have to either use Hudghton, Dawson, Fisher or Blake on him. As Rocca would most likely park himself in the goal-square, Max or Dawson would most likely get the job. Especially if Dawson plays, Rocca would still fancy this matchup. Or, the Saints would back in Fisher to do this job and run off him, which in turn forces Gilbert to man up on Medhurst. It atleast eliminates St.Kilda’s spare man. The worry would be the ability to run off Rocca. This is not a huge worry with either Hudghton or Dawson. If the job goes to Fisher, then it may be Anthony’s role to run with him up the field. I think the Collingwood forwards would hold their positions, so if Fisher runs off, it is Anthony who would follow and leave Rocca on Hudghton down back.

The Saints love loose men in defence...so playing the 3 talls and 3 smalls ensures no loose guys. They may be forced to bring Goddard back if they want to get someone loose, and again I would send Thomas back to man him up. It’s a risk, but that forward line is dangerous.






The Big Issues

There are a number of talking points leading into this year’s finals series.

1. Is the bump dead?

Matty Lloyd has copped his rightful whack for his bump on Brad Sewell. What he did must be contrasted with what Buddy Franklin as he ran off his line to make the contact. Lloyd’s bump may have won his team the game. It left the Hawks 2 short on the bench. However, the cost of winning the game is the loss of Matthew Lloyd.

You would hope that in one of the more hotly contested finals series of the last decade that the umps put the whistle away, and the MRP use common sense if a few bumps are dished out. I would hate to see Travis Cloke rubbed out for doing what Franklin did...especially in the latter end of September.

Will the players put the bump away for finals due to the risk of missing crunch games? Or will the bump be on show as sides try to impose themselves on the competition? Either way, the Matthew Lloyd bump was reportable in any era.


2. Is Adelaide a genuine premiership threat?

This is of massive importance to Collingwood and St.Kilda, as the loser has to face Adelaide, providing they account for the undermanned Essendon side. There is a huge risk that the loser of the qualifying final will be bowled out in straight sets, so it makes winning on Sunday so much more important.

For what it’s worth, I still think Adelaide is a rank behind the top 4. The biggest scalp they have taken over the last 2 months is Carlton, and their defence is very suspect right now. St.Kilda, Collingwood and Geelong still possess defences that are more capable of playing on the likes of Burton, Porplyzia etc.

But they are back to full strength and look a real threat. But I don’t think we all need to go panicking given their win on the weekend. Carlton are still a year off being ready, and Adelaide simply punched holes through their weak defence and attacking midfield.


3. Can Geelong go all the way?

There is no doubt the Cats are still 2nd favourites for the flag. But I think the key for them is to get over the line against the Bulldogs. They have looked vulnerable against the Dogs twice this year, and the Dogs look in really sharp form and should be full strength.

The Cats will be without Steve Johnson, whilst Rooke and Chapman will be 50/50’s. The Cat’s desperately need the win this weekend. A fortnight’s rest should mean they will be 100% fit for the preliminary, with Steve Johnson due back by then. It also gives the underdone Brad Ottens a fortnight to recover from his biggest test this year. Rooke and Chapman will definitely be over their issues as well. They then look really dangerous for the Preliminary final. The loser of Collingwood and St.Kilda is a big chance to meet them in the preliminaries provided they beat the Doggies.

But the Bulldogs did the job against Collingwood and would be over the moon at facing Geelong this Saturday. They have a shorter break than Geelong which could be an issue, but ultimately their list is in better condition and Geelong are still looking very vulnerable. It will go a long way to proving how genuine the Dogs are this year and whether they can win a flag without a tall forward.



The Wrap Up

I’m pumped. I’ll be sitting in AFL members for anyone sitting around there that wants to come say hello. As I said, the season goes back to square now, and the Home & Away ladder counts for very little. Tickets are selling very very fast.

I proved last week that I am a complete jinx when it comes to tipping. I said the Pies would lose but by less than 24, therefore maintaining 3rd spot. They lost by exactly 24. My apologies Pies fans, I take blame.

Therefore, no mucking around this week...the Saints by 30.

By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86



Appendix:

As I finalise this piece, I notice that both Hudghton and Ball trained with the VFL side and therefore look highly unlikely to take their place in the side.

[Thinline]

Fair analysis, mate, and kudos your way for doing it

But geez, as a Saint, I like the match ups.

And I can only hope you pick Rocca.

And as for Swan - Leopard. Spots. Sorry, but as good as he may have been, I have little time for anyone who involves themselves in that kind of thing.

[snoopygirl]

Really well written article Dave86.

[Mr Magic]

Dave, I really like and appreciate your work.

[Richter]

Good on you Dave. Great analysis.

A couple of things though.....

1/ Dawson won't be dropped for Max.

2/ Dawson will easily take care of Rocca.

3/ Like Ball will probably be recalled for Eddy..... but I wouldn't count on it.

Let's hope it turns out to be the game we are all hoping it will be..... and that the Saints win by a country mile.....

[asiu]

great read ...ta dude


go the mighties , give em red

[Young Georgie]

Concur Dave, a v good analysis/coverage and I can only agree with the Rocca inclusion as a coupla goals in the 2s every now and then means he might equal the 1 he scored against us earlier this year...if he's lucky.

[matrix]

bloody hell u mean i got to read all that

ill give it a crack later this evening

[clarky449]

Good read

[Solar]

first thing I noticed and it's a very important mistake is our game plan.

We do not "force teams wide". In fact, and well spotted by gary lyon during the season, we force teams to work back through the middle of the ground. This allows our marking midfielders and flankers to intercept the ball coming out. Add frontal pessure making the kick out of defense not always 100% there is a big scope for turnovers. If the opposition can move the ball with pecision they can get over the zone and there is always room behind the saints zone for forwards. Collingwood will not play by this and will work down the wings. Look for alot of boundary throw ins and packs around the wings. The saints will look at working back through the middle once they get to the 50 but they also use the wings.

The MCG suitsboth teams for different reasons. The key to the battle will be on the saints half forward line and the middle. If the saints allow the pies to move it with precision, then the pies can score heavily. If the saints pressure them watch for a replay of last years semi with heaps of high ball forward which the saints backs love.

First and third quarters are the key. Setting up a statement is important in the third and the saints have made their moves in the third quarter.

can't agree with the form part. You write off the loss to the dogs by the pies as player management yet keep bringing up the 2 saints loses (in addition to the win against the hawks) that were nothing more then training drills. To expect a team to play at 100% that close to finals with no advantage ladder wise is a wierd one, who knows if the saints have lost momenteum but they have done what the pies/dogs did for the past month now. The outcome is that they have 1 longterm injury and one, yes one player with an injury cloud (don't start of roos 6 goal knee or lennys sore toe )

But thats just me being picky and I'm happy for the media and experts to write off a team that finished 20-2

edit: if thomas goes to BJ then ross must send BJ forward as a second full forward.

[Milan Faletic]

Great review. Very informative. Well done.

[redwhite&blackblood]

looks like a great in depth analysis on the game. unfortunately i don't seem to have the time or the concentration to read it.

[squiz]

Good read
Lockyer would get 5 goals on Gram though.
We need a better matchup for Lockyer. No team seems to have one.
And I hate it.

[DaVe86]

Good read
Lockyer would get 5 goals on Gram though.
We need a better matchup for Lockyer. No team seems to have one.
And I hate it.

Good post...Lockyer is finally starting to get some attention. For ages now he just almost hides in the pocket and kicks his 3 goals. It is so important to Collingwood that he does thsi because we don't have a guy who can kick a big bag of 5+. An even spread from our midfielders and 3 from Tarks is the key.

[DaVe86]

Good on you Dave. Great analysis.

A couple of things though.....

1/ Dawson won't be dropped for Max.

2/ Dawson will easily take care of Rocca.

3/ Like Ball will probably be recalled for Eddy..... but I wouldn't count on it.

Let's hope it turns out to be the game we are all hoping it will be..... and that the Saints win by a country mile.....

its looking likely now that neither Ball, Hudghton or Gardiner will play...so there goes my ins and outs.

[DaVe86]

first thing I noticed and it's a very important mistake is our game plan.

We do not "force teams wide". In fact, and well spotted by gary lyon during the season, we force teams to work back through the middle of the ground. This allows our marking midfielders and flankers to intercept the ball coming out. Add frontal pessure making the kick out of defense not always 100% there is a big scope for turnovers. If the opposition can move the ball with pecision they can get over the zone and there is always room behind the saints zone for forwards. Collingwood will not play by this and will work down the wings. Look for alot of boundary throw ins and packs around the wings. The saints will look at working back through the middle once they get to the 50 but they also use the wings.

The MCG suitsboth teams for different reasons. The key to the battle will be on the saints half forward line and the middle. If the saints allow the pies to move it with precision, then the pies can score heavily. If the saints pressure them watch for a replay of last years semi with heaps of high ball forward which the saints backs love.

First and third quarters are the key. Setting up a statement is important in the third and the saints have made their moves in the third quarter.

can't agree with the form part. You write off the loss to the dogs by the pies as player management yet keep bringing up the 2 saints loses (in addition to the win against the hawks) that were nothing more then training drills. To expect a team to play at 100% that close to finals with no advantage ladder wise is a wierd one, who knows if the saints have lost momenteum but they have done what the pies/dogs did for the past month now. The outcome is that they have 1 longterm injury and one, yes one player with an injury cloud (don't start of roos 6 goal knee or lennys sore toe )

But thats just me being picky and I'm happy for the media and experts to write off a team that finished 20-2

Like i said...i don't buy into quotes like "The Saints are not in form" etc or "the saints cannot play the mcg". I place very little emphasis on anything st.kilda has done over the last month because it means little.

But the critics will not go away until the Saints win the flag. Then the critics will cease.

Port Adelaide made the GF both years Brisbane won the flag against Collingwood. Yet both times it was Collingwood that finished them off in the finals.


But this is a very different St.Kilda team and it looks like a premiership team. But people will ask questions until the cup is raised in 23 days time.

[Thinline]

Good read
Lockyer would get 5 goals on Gram though.
We need a better matchup for Lockyer. No team seems to have one.
And I hate it.

No team bothers matching up on Lockyer because he ain't often particularly damaging. He'll snag one goal here and there, but so what? He plays forward of the contest and preys on lucky bounces and uncontested crumbs. Perhaps that's his role, I don't know and care little. To my eyes he rarely wins ball or sets up attacking forays. He's also not tall or overly quick. IMO he's lucky to be in their first 22. I emphasises, though....IMO....

[Devilhead]

Good read
Lockyer would get 5 goals on Gram though.
We need a better matchup for Lockyer. No team seems to have one.
And I hate it.

What about Bakes??

[Thinline]

Good read
Lockyer would get 5 goals on Gram though.
We need a better matchup for Lockyer. No team seems to have one.
And I hate it.

What about Bakes??

Why waste the Bordaeux on the chuck steak?

[saintsRrising]

its looking likely now that neither Ball, Hudghton or Gardiner will play...so there goes my ins and outs.

Gardiner will play.

If you are going on Lyon's press conferences...Saint's fans have learnt to disregard what he says re selection in advance of a game. What he says with respect to players and selections has no correlation.

Gardiner to play.
Ball likely to play.
Max may possibly play.

[saintsRrising]

Generally a very good write up Dave.

however as picked up by Solar we actually invite teams to use the corridor.

first thing I noticed and it's a very important mistake is our game plan.

We do not "force teams wide". In fact, and well spotted by gary lyon during the season, we force teams to work back through the middle of the ground. .

PS: I can understand why you have expunged from your memory our last meeting at the MCG.

[Solar]

btw great write up

[linz]

I suppose (at the end of the day as Stan would say) the pies and the saints have won 1 flag each since 1966.

It's all even now even though our win was against them.

[Goose is king]

Thanks for doing that.

I couldn't be bothered reading much of it though. I'm sure that tomorrow when I am not so tired I will re- read it.

Much appreciated.

[linz]

Thanks for doing that.

I couldn't be bothered reading much of it though. I'm sure that tomorrow when I am not so tired I will re- read it.

Much appreciated.

I'm wondering whether it's even worth going to the game. I've got painting to do and if we win by 30 points; well what's the point?