Our top 16 (warning: for stats junkies only)

[rodgerfox]

This season, we have had the luxury of being able to drop Geary (who would walk into at least half the teams in the comp)

Which comp??

[SainterK]

Hmmm, I have to disagree with some of your points Rogerfox.

When you say....

"Really, all he has done (and he hasn't even don it himself) is keep our best players on the park.Keep them on the park, and the rest takes care of itself"

Ross has an ability to see potential in players that no-one else can, and get the best out of them. Recent examples Gardiner Dawson Ray, perfect example of "coaching" in my opinion.

He does everything in his power to surround himself with people that know what they are doing, you may see this as "not doing it himself" yet I see this as extremely intelligent on his part and certainly does not lessen his ability.

And as for keeping players on the park, you cannot fob this off as simply health and fitness. If you do, I find this very poor on your part....

[saint vince]

So when GT did he was bucking the trend and when Lyon did it we scraped into the 8 and then the top 4 with an ordinary side.

I am not a GT or Lyon lover I love the saints but ou can't honestly say that we bottomed oulast year. If you stick to your guns on this then you are more arrogant than I ver thought. Ask Melbourne if they think a prelim is bottoming out????????

What the hell??

No, read what I wrote.

Lyon didn't 'do it'. We were useless until we had a full team available.

We didn't make a prelim with key players out. We made a prelim by winning several games at the tail end of the season once Lyon had a full list to work with.

According to Meher's op it states that ur absenteeism was just as high at the end of the year as at the start in 08.

I have not researched it myself but have no reason to doubt what he has written.

[rodgerfox]

Hmmm, I have to disagree with some of your points Rogerfox.

When you say....

"Really, all he has done (and he hasn't even don it himself) is keep our best players on the park.Keep them on the park, and the rest takes care of itself"

Ross has an ability to see potential in players that no-one else can, and get the best out of them. Recent examples Gardiner Dawson Ray, perfect example of "coaching" in my opinion.

Gardiner was a great pick up. However it's not September yet. And all other clubs baulked at him for 2 reasons - his head, and his body. Not his ability.

If his body isn't right in September, then sorry - but Lyon erred and everyone else was right. If his body is right, then Ross Lyon needs to be commended. Until then, I'm afraid the jury is out.

As for the other 2, my point throughout this thread is that these guys aren't much chop at all. They are playing roles whic are made far easier by the fact that our guns are carrying the load. Take the guns out, and suddenly these 3nd and 3rd stringers are forced to do jobs that they aren't capable of.
Hopefully we don't have to worry about that this year.

He does everything in his power to surround himself with people that know what they are doing, you may see this as "not doing it himself" yet I see this as extremely intelligent on his part and certainly does not lessen his ability.

He shouldn't be managing players' fitness. No coach does.

I tihnk it's a bit far fetched to say this is extremely intelligent. It's common sense.

Name one coach in the past decade or two who has managed his players' fitness?

And as for keeping players on the park, you cannot fob this off as simply health and fitness. If you do, I find this very poor on your part....

Why else wouldn't a player be on the park?

[rodgerfox]

According to Meher's op it states that ur absenteeism was just as high at the end of the year as at the start in 08.

He is wrong.

[SainterK]

Hmmm, I have to disagree with some of your points Rogerfox.

When you say....

"Really, all he has done (and he hasn't even don it himself) is keep our best players on the park.Keep them on the park, and the rest takes care of itself"

Ross has an ability to see potential in players that no-one else can, and get the best out of them. Recent examples Gardiner Dawson Ray, perfect example of "coaching" in my opinion.

Gardiner was a great pick up. However it's not September yet. And all other clubs baulked at him for 2 reasons - his head, and his body. Not his ability.

If his body isn't right in September, then sorry - but Lyon erred and everyone else was right. If his body is right, then Ross Lyon needs to be commended. Until then, I'm afraid the jury is out.

As for the other 2, my point throughout this thread is that these guys aren't much chop at all. They are playing roles whic are made far easier by the fact that our guns are carrying the load. Take the guns out, and suddenly these 3nd and 3rd stringers are forced to do jobs that they aren't capable of.
Hopefully we don't have to worry about that this year.

He does everything in his power to surround himself with people that know what they are doing, you may see this as "not doing it himself" yet I see this as extremely intelligent on his part and certainly does not lessen his ability.

He shouldn't be managing players' fitness. No coach does.

I tihnk it's a bit far fetched to say this is extremely intelligent. It's common sense.

Name one coach in the past decade or two who has managed his players' fitness?

And as for keeping players on the park, you cannot fob this off as simply health and fitness. If you do, I find this very poor on your part....

Why else wouldn't a player be on the park?

I am not saying he manages fitness, I am saying he manages people.

Just cause a player may be fit, healthy and capable, it doesn't always make for a happy ever after.

[BAM! (shhhh)]

Love the OP, interesting thread.

Couple of questions it raises for me (which I don't expect answers to, but have asked for statheads, I've got my stat cap firmly on).

Context: the number of guys missing from the top 16 as a percentage is interesting anecdotally relative to itself. In theory, it ought be quantifiable as well (with the challenge of statistically judging the top 16! Champion Data could do it ala their team of the year, I doubt we Joe publics have enough avaiable stats to formualte it without relying onthe subjective), in which case it would be interesting to see the same numbers relative to opponents year on year.

We've seen stats on players used, I'd be very interested in knowing:
1) how your percentage re: top 16 correlates.
2) with the increased sample size, what impact reduced top 16 can be said to have.

[rodgerfox]

Just cause a player may be fit, healthy and capable, it doesn't always make for a happy ever after.

At AFL level, it pretty much does.

[meher baba]

According to Meher's op it states that ur absenteeism was just as high at the end of the year as at the start in 08.

He is wrong.

No I'm not.

We lost Gehrig and Baker early in the season. Goose played 4 games but he wasn't up to it. Gardi went on and off the radar scheme but finished off.

Most of the other top players - Blake, Dal, Fisher, Goddard, Max, Harves, Lenny, King, Kosi, Milne, Joey and Riewoldt - played more or less right through the season, as did players who I (but perhaps not others) consider second stringers: Gram, Schneider, CJ, etc.

Ball played through to round 18 and then dropped out through injury. An important "bottom six" player in Dempster went on the eve of the finals.

Not all of our team was perhaps as fit and firing as they should have been at the beginning of the season: Lenny and BJ improved as the season went on, Dal and Milne famously needed a boot up the bum, Kosi was pretty poor right through (and is much better this year).

What did change was our list of second stringers. Gwilt, McQualter, Raph, Eddy and others becoming regulars by the time we got to the finals.

[meher baba]

Love the OP, interesting thread.

Couple of questions it raises for me (which I don't expect answers to, but have asked for statheads, I've got my stat cap firmly on).

Context: the number of guys missing from the top 16 as a percentage is interesting anecdotally relative to itself. In theory, it ought be quantifiable as well (with the challenge of statistically judging the top 16! Champion Data could do it ala their team of the year, I doubt we Joe publics have enough avaiable stats to formualte it without relying onthe subjective), in which case it would be interesting to see the same numbers relative to opponents year on year.

We've seen stats on players used, I'd be very interested in knowing:
1) how your percentage re: top 16 correlates.
2) with the increased sample size, what impact reduced top 16 can be said to have.

I think it always has to be subjective. I note that not many people have challenged my definition of our top 16, but you could quite significantly change the stats by changing some of my parameters, eg

- it could be argued that, even though he remained on the list, Hamill was out of our top 16 in 2007
- likewise with Goose ever since 2006
- likewise with Gehrig in 2008

All of these changes would make the absenteeism rate lower. Ah, but there's the rub: if a player is plagued by injury or loses form, we generally stop thinking about him as one of our stars. Hence, nobody would now consider Goose to be one of our top 16, or even one of our top 22. Likewise X, who I haven't included in our top 16 at any stage, but who has played over 100 games for the club would have surely been in our top 18 in 2004, 2007 and possibly other seasons.

Another thing that I have found interesting, but didn't mention in the OP, is that the years in which we seem to have done better are those in which we have had a fairly stable lineup right through, eg, 2004, 2008 and, so far, 2009.

A year like 2006, in which players like Kosi and Hamill were missing for long periods and then were rushed back in at the end, or 2005, in which we lost a whole heap of key players at the end, are the ones you don't want to have.[/i]

[SainterK]

Just cause a player may be fit, healthy and capable, it doesn't always make for a happy ever after.

At AFL level, it pretty much does.

And I'll opt to disagree....

[meher baba]

This season, we have had the luxury of being able to drop Geary (who would walk into at least half the teams in the comp)

Which comp??

The AFL. Leaving aside the totally dud sides, I reckon Geary would certainly strengthen the midfields of both Carlton and Brisbane.

As I have been won over to the view that CJ is an AFL-standard player, I now believe that - with continued development and no major injury problems - Geary is going to become a star player in a year or two.

However, I'm a way off feeling the same way about Eddy, who I reckon is a plodder.

[borderbarry]

I certainly think we could win a GF with Raph, Clinton, Blake, Dawson and R Clarke in it.

Meher Baba, you would not seriously pick a GF team with both Raph and R Clarke in it would you? Where would you play them?

[saint vince]

According to Meher's op it states that ur absenteeism was just as high at the end of the year as at the start in 08.

He is wrong.

Do you have figures to back that up? I am more than willing to listen if you do but Meher put a fair bit of work into OP and it would be pretty poor form to just say someone is wrong on factually matters without evidence to support it.

[meher baba]

I certainly think we could win a GF with Raph, Clinton, Blake, Dawson and R Clarke in it.

Meher Baba, you would not seriously pick a GF team with both Raph and R Clarke in it would you? Where would you play them?

Good point. Of course I meant Jimmy rather than Raph.

Cheers

MB

[halcyon]

roger fox, you really don't rate Blake or Dawson at all do you.

I mean they've only held down key defensive roles all year in an unbeaten side with one of the best defences in the last 5 years all without the most experienced defender Max for the most part. However according to you they are basically passengers....

StK wouldn't be in the position it is right now without the performances of those 2 individuals who have performed well under pressure against top sides all year. Most people see this, i'm puzzled as to why you dont. What would these guys have to do every week to impress you?