St Kilda by 1 goal

InkerSaint · Post: # 765719Post **InkerSaint** » Tue 30 Jun 2009 4:23pm

... based on the last 5 rounds.

St Kilda are second for goals conceded in this period, behind Adelaide. Geelong are 6th.

For goals scored Geelong are fourth behind Bulldogs, Essendon and Collingwood. St Kilda are sixth.

The key is inside 50 entries. Saints and Cats both average 56, and Cats concede 42 while the Saints concede 35. The rub is the Cats are more effective in converting.

By averaging my figures, the stats say Geelong to make 46 inside 50s for 12 goals, and the Saints to make 49 inside 50s for 13 goals.

The Saints by 1 goal.

cowboy18 · Post: # 765721Post **cowboy18** » Tue 30 Jun 2009 4:24pm

Sounds right to me.

But who will kick it based on your analysis?

plugger66 · Post: # 765724Post **plugger66** » Tue 30 Jun 2009 4:24pm

InkerSaint wrote:... based on the last 5 rounds.

St Kilda are second for goals conceded in this period, behind Adelaide. Geelong are 6th.

For goals scored Geelong are fourth behind Bulldogs, Essendon and Collingwood. St Kilda are sixth.

The key is inside 50 entries. Saints and Cats both average 56, and Cats concede 42 while the Saints concede 35. The rub is the Cats are more effective in converting.

By averaging my figures, the stats say Geelong to make 46 inside 50s for 12 goals, and the Saints to make 49 inside 50s for 13 goals.

The Saints by 1 goal.

What are the oz lotto numbers tonight?

Sainter_Dad · Tue 30 Jun 2009 4:27pm

Sainter_Boy says that as the siren blows Geelong trail by 2 points but Mooney has a mark right on the fifty - kicks a drop punt that fade as it gets to the line and slams into the point post - Saints by 1 point

InkerSaint · Post: # 765729Post **InkerSaint** » Tue 30 Jun 2009 4:28pm

12, 13, 18, 23, 26, 32, 44

They're either the jumper numbers of the goalkickers or the Oz Lotto numbers... my spreadsheets have gotten mixed up.

perfectionist · Tue 30 Jun 2009 4:40pm

Sainter_Dad wrote:Sainter_Boy says that as the siren blows Geelong trail by 2 points but Mooney has a mark right on the fifty - kicks a drop punt that fade as it gets to the line and slams into the point post - Saints by 1 point

If it hits the point post we still win by two points.

I would prefer a less "heart attack inducing" scenario, if anyone out there has one.

markp · Post: # 765742Post **markp** » Tue 30 Jun 2009 4:51pm

Numbers don't lie.... now I can do something else on Sunday arvo!

Saint Bev · Post: # 765751Post **Saint Bev** » Tue 30 Jun 2009 5:16pm

Sainter_Dad wrote:Sainter_Boy says that as the siren blows Geelong trail by 2 points but Mooney has a mark right on the fifty - kicks a drop punt that fade as it gets to the line and slams into the point post - Saints by 1 point

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo I couldn't stand it.

Thinline · Post: # 765777Post **Thinline** » Tue 30 Jun 2009 5:48pm

I am approaching my predictions in two ways.

The sensible conservative way says to me that Geellong deserve favoritism and will probably get up by 20-25 points on the basis that they are too deep in the midfield.

But the gut instinct inkling tells me that we will win reasonably comfortably. The number 42 resonates...

The latter instinct told me we would beat Richmond by a cricket score, the Bulldogs in a canter, and West Coast by 100 pts. Now none of them are particularly earth shattering predictions, granted, but still, the feeling is strong...

SainterK · Post: # 765999Post **SainterK** » Wed 01 Jul 2009 12:09am

I think we will win, by 3 points....edge of your seat, sick to your stomach, biting your fingernails kind of stuff.

roxanne · Post: # 766010Post **roxanne** » Wed 01 Jul 2009 12:33am

I understand why people think they should win. I'm wondering if, in their minds, they'll still be expecting to meet the team they played in the finals last year.
Anyway, we'll get enough of the ball, no doubt about that. If we can deliver it properly to Kosi (the big question mark for mine) we'll win convincingly.

jonesy · Post: # 766018Post **jonesy** » Wed 01 Jul 2009 12:55am

I think if we play like we have for the past 5-6 weeks,some of our posters will be in for a nasty suprise.
If we play like we did pre round 8-9,we can beat them,but that was some time ago now.

Just get the feeling they're going to open us up badly.

Hopefully I'm wrong,but I just don't think we're playing anywhere near well enough lately. We've had some very tardy starts against very ordinary sides. Start like that sunday and we'll get taken to the slaughter in a severe fashion and Geelong won't let us back into the game like the lowly sides have. Our problem is going to be stopping there numerous small to mid range players that kick goals,there's just so many of them. We'll need our kicking boots on also...kick like last weekend and we've got no hope

At least we're going to get a true indication of where we're at one way or the other

markinUSA · Post: # 766033Post **markinUSA** » Wed 01 Jul 2009 5:39am

I have absolutely no evidence to back this up.

Don't ask me to justify... more of a hope than anything.

Saints by 5 goals!

InkerSaint · Post: # 766041Post **InkerSaint** » Wed 01 Jul 2009 8:45am

jonesy wrote:I think if we play like we have for the past 5-6 weeks,some of our posters will be in for a nasty suprise.
If we play like we did pre round 8-9,we can beat them,but that was some time ago now.

Just get the feeling they're going to open us up badly.

Hopefully I'm wrong,but I just don't think we're playing anywhere near well enough lately. We've had some very tardy starts against very ordinary sides. Start like that sunday and we'll get taken to the slaughter in a severe fashion and Geelong won't let us back into the game like the lowly sides have.

The stats disagree.

On current form the really scary sides are Collingwood, Adelaide, and the Bulldogs.

If the Saints play like they have for the past 5-6 weeks and Geelong play like they have for the past 5-6 weeks the Saints will win.

InkerSaint · Post: # 768823Post **InkerSaint** » Sun 05 Jul 2009 7:44pm

*COUGH*

Predicted inside-50s: 49-46

Actual inside-50s: 50-54

Predicted goals: 13-12

Actual goals: 14-13

Stellar work by the Saints defence.

battye · Post: # 768826Post **battye** » Sun 05 Jul 2009 7:46pm

Nicely done InkerSaint

robbo_25 · Post: # 769200Post **robbo_25** » Sun 05 Jul 2009 10:15pm

bingo!
nice prediction

Post: # 769206Post **n1ck** » Sun 05 Jul 2009 10:17pm

Stellar work by InkerSaint!

OneEyedSainter77 · Sun 05 Jul 2009 11:16pm

InkerSaint wrote:*COUGH*

Predicted inside-50s: 49-46

Actual inside-50s: 50-54

Predicted goals: 13-12

Actual goals: 14-13

Stellar work by the Saints defence.

This post is proof that statistics can sometimes be useful!

Excellent work Inker Saint

SainterK · Post: # 769334Post **SainterK** » Sun 05 Jul 2009 11:17pm

Good on you

plugger66 · Post: # 769335Post **plugger66** » Sun 05 Jul 2009 11:17pm

OneEyedSainter77 wrote:
InkerSaint wrote:*COUGH*

Predicted inside-50s: 49-46

Actual inside-50s: 50-54

Predicted goals: 13-12

Actual goals: 14-13

Stellar work by the Saints defence.
This post is proof that statistics can sometimes be useful!

Excellent work Inker Saint

But did he win Oz lotto?

felixleo · Post: # 769340Post **felixleo** » Sun 05 Jul 2009 11:19pm

Your scary inkersaint.

Launcestonsaint · Sun 05 Jul 2009 11:32pm

InkerSaint wrote:*COUGH*

Predicted inside-50s: 49-46

Actual inside-50s: 50-54

Predicted goals: 13-12

Actual goals: 14-13

Stellar work by the Saints defence.

Mate, you should have predicted the goals would correspond with the new wins total. We're on 14 & their on 13.

bigcarl · Post: # 769615Post **bigcarl** » Mon 06 Jul 2009 3:05am

freakish

St Kilda by 1 goal

St Kilda by 1 goal

Re: St Kilda by 1 goal