An Intresting Stat re. Grand Final Winners

[saintspremiers]

Fair Dinkum - tanking the Geelong game.

Yeah, whatever.

So we are sooo good that we are able to "tank" against the top side in the comp?

Make no mistake, Geelong are the best side in the comp, not us.

We don't need to "tank" against them to lose!

[BAM! (shhhh)]

Yes, that's right. There is a big difference between "coincidence" which it certainly isn't, and "perfect prediction" which it also isn't. Unlike tossing a coin, the outcome of a footy game is not a random event. The original stat is "interesting" as the poster said. It does not mean that if we lost to Geelong in Round 14 then we would beat them in our next meeting or vice versa.

The stat does indicate that, with the high concentration of tactics these days, and with teams which are close together in terms of ability, one game can be viewed as a learning example by the loser. The big surprise, as I said earlier, would be if teams did NOT do this.

In statistical terms, between two closely matched teams over 7 years, the odds of any trend unaffected by other conditions is similar to the odds of flipping a coin and getting the same result 7 times in a row - 2^7 (i.e 1:128).

In sporting terms, where we're regularly limited for sample size (if it happened with a coin, we could go on and flip it another 10,000 times to find out if the coin was imbalanced, or the run was pure chance), we're left with arguments like this one: is the loss a valid predictor of an end result (trend), or something which over time will revert to the mean(outlier)?

While your rationale makes sense, I would have conversely though it more likely that the teams are mismatched and the result continues from the H&A than the teams being closely matched AND losing providing enough strategic insight to make turning around the result the trend - I'd have expected 60:40 or so in favour of the H&A winner.

As a hypothesis either is difficult to test without using derived stats, and even going back to 1897 is as likely to throw up dissimilar situations as it is to test the theory.

If we go back just a bit further:

2001: Brisbane beat Ess. Rd 10 Brisbane Won the grand final
2000: Essendon defeated Melbourne rd 9, Essendon won the grand final
1999: North beat Carlton rd 13, North won the grand final
1998: Adelaide lost to North rd 21, Adelaide won the grand final
1997: Adelaide beat us in rd 15 and won the grand final
1996: North lost to Sydney rd 13, North won the grand final
1995: Carlton beat Geelong in rd 12, Carlton won the grand final.
1994: West Coast beat Geelong in rd 10, West Coast won the grand final.
1993: Essendon lost to Cartlon in the QF, Essendon won the GF.
1992: West Coast beat Geelong in rd 19, West Coast won the GF.
1991: Hawthorn beat West Coast in the QF, Hawthorn won the GF.
1990: Collingwood beat Essendon in the SF, and in the GF.

So in the 12 years prior to the OP, it was 9-3 in favour of the team that won prior to the grand final.

Note that even over this period, we're back to a different finals format which might impact results.

While that 75% looks a big number too, I wouldn't trust that either, for example 2000 was simply a gigantic mistmatch. As perfectionist has said a few times, there's only any use if the teams are closely matched. put em together and we're at 10-9 to the loser.

In that case, I'd suggest that in looking for a stat, looking at teams with bursts like the West Coast-Sydney matches from '04-'07 (they played something like 10 in a row decided by under a goal?) is more useful for determining if tactical and strategic edges can be gained from losing.

I'd be pretty comfortable guessing the 7 year run an outlier, while acknowledging it's at best an educated guess - though before anyone runs out and puts their house on the winner of the rd 14 clash, privided it's close I'd remember that reversion to the mean doesn't impact on isolated events. i.e. if I was flipping the coin for the 8th time, my odds of getting that 8th in a row is 1 in 2, not 1 in 256, reversion to the mean happens over a large sample size, and one game is not that.

Our guts will have to remain clenched until September tells it's story

[stinger]

It is an interesting stat and goes a long way back too. For anyone who can remember, the game before the 1966 GF between St Kilda and Collingwood, also had the opposite result. It is not a coincidence. In fact, it would only be coincidental if the losing team took no steps to reverse the result. In 1966, the selectors took one consequential and vital decision following our loss to Collingwood in the 2nd semi. They brought in John Bingley, who had played just 7 games in '65 and '66, to tag Des Tuddenham who had kicked 7 in the 2nd semi. Des still kicked 3 goals in the GF but was nowhere the influence that he was in the 2nd semi. John Bingley went back to Tassie after "that" match - a premiership in his bag.

des told me that bingley spat in his face when he tried to shake his hand at the start of the match........not sure old des was telling the truth....after all i did start the conversation by saying john's stopper role on des cost the filth a flag.....



on a lighter note....bingley once snotted the opposing captain in an intra league match between the ntfa and the nwfu whilst both teams were lined up for the national anthem.......hard man our john....but he won us a premiership,,,,,,

[saint patrick]

Think there is merit in this.Have been saying to quite a few people over the last few weeks that a win may not be neccessarily the best thing in round 14.

Sounds ridiculous but stats like this give some weight to it

Will happily accept a win if it happens but if we lose a close one I would be far from shattered...

.... its all about the psych of the winning and losing teams when we meet later in the finals...

Doesn't make any logical sense but my gut feel is if we beat Geelong in round 14 we may find it harder in September...if we run them close we will feel we can bridge the gap next time...

I believe the stats historically on this are not there by coincidence but that they reflect a determination from the vaquished to exact revenge which is still the most powerful force there is in the universe...

Why I look to round 14 with great interest and no real fear of defeat...

A free hit at the Cats before the business end...

Either way we will learn valuable lessons to realise the dream

[plugger66]

Think there is merit in this.Have been saying to quite a few people over the last few weeks that a win may not be neccessarily the best thing in round 14.

Sounds ridiculous but stats like this give some weight to it

Will happily accept a win if it happens but if we lose a close one I would be far from shattered...

.... its all about the psych of the winning and losing teams when we meet later in the finals...

Doesn't make any logical sense but my gut feel is if we beat Geelong in round 14 we may find it harder in September...if we run them close we will feel we can bridge the gap next time...

I believe the stats historically on this are not there by coincidence but that they reflect a determination from the vaquished to exact revenge which is still the most powerful force there is in the universe...

Why I look to round 14 with great interest and no real fear of defeat...

A free hit at the Cats before the business end...

Either way we will learn valuable lessons to realise the dream

What do the stats show? Nothing. In 19 years 9 sides have won the GF and won the last game and 10 sides have won the GF and lost their last game. As I said previously it was coincidence about the last 7 years. Finally why would losers only gain from a loss and not the winners of the game.

[asiu]

hmmmmmmm

i'm with the 'free hit ' at the masters of the universe crowd


i wont be upset should we get beat by the cats (in a tightly fought game)


i'll be pissed in september , but not in july ......ie, it could be good for us

[saint patrick]

Think there is merit in this.Have been saying to quite a few people over the last few weeks that a win may not be neccessarily the best thing in round 14.

Sounds ridiculous but stats like this give some weight to it

Will happily accept a win if it happens but if we lose a close one I would be far from shattered...

.... its all about the psych of the winning and losing teams when we meet later in the finals...

Doesn't make any logical sense but my gut feel is if we beat Geelong in round 14 we may find it harder in September...if we run them close we will feel we can bridge the gap next time...

I believe the stats historically on this are not there by coincidence but that they reflect a determination from the vaquished to exact revenge which is still the most powerful force there is in the universe...

Why I look to round 14 with great interest and no real fear of defeat...

A free hit at the Cats before the business end...

Either way we will learn valuable lessons to realise the dream

What do the stats show? Nothing. In 19 years 9 sides have won the GF and won the last game and 10 sides have won the GF and lost their last game. As I said previously it was coincidence about the last 7 years. Finally why would losers only gain from a loss and not the winners of the game.

Whatever Plugger its an individual opinion...

You say coincidence and I say may'be it ain't !!

I just don't believe a close loss will hurt our chances later in the year...if we win great...either way we will learn something of value for September.

[SainterK]

Here's a thought, Geelong may not even play in the GF....

[asiu]

bingley , as captain coach , led clarence to their first flag in 1970

they were always 'the' bogey side for us (the bay)


we won in '71 (beating clarence) by 10 points......mum wouldn't talk to me .....lol

[saint patrick]

Here's a thought, Geelong may not even play in the GF....

Interesting thought...might be better to finish 2nd and play Coll,Carl,Adel in the prelim and have the Dogs and Cats meet in the prelim...

Not unthinkable that the Dogs will get them this time.

[aussiejones]

Its said that the mind plays a big part in performance of physical tasks.

If say Max hs always had the wood over Fev based on past performance , then Max goes into the game 'knowing' I can beat this guy. Fev on the other hand goes into the game knowing Max has an advantage .

The same goes for the team as a whole . If we beat them last time ..we know how to again . On the other hand if last time the team lost then next time there will be strategies in place to counter what went wrong in the loss.

The question is : is it better coming off a last time win or a last time loss?
A last time win could lead to overconfidence and just doing enough .
A last time loss could lead to greater effort and correction of strategies.

I think I woud take coming off a win AND control any suggestion of overconfidence. Every game is a new game . Different players will be up on the day.

[Munga]

Whichever teams wins rd14 won't determine who wins in September. What it will probably affect in the final ladder and which team plays 4th instead of 3rd. With the Dogs looking likely for 3rd, I'd rather us finish top, which means beating the Cats would be helpful.

[spert]

An interesting thing in footy is the old saying that teams with the best defence win grand finals..so far so good.

[Sam23]

Whichever teams wins rd14 won't determine who wins in September. What it will probably affect in the final ladder and which team plays 4th instead of 3rd. With the Dogs looking likely for 3rd, I'd rather us finish top, which means beating the Cats would be helpful.

I'd rather finish second and play dogs in the first final rather than the prelim.

[plugger66]

Whichever teams wins rd14 won't determine who wins in September. What it will probably affect in the final ladder and which team plays 4th instead of 3rd. With the Dogs looking likely for 3rd, I'd rather us finish top, which means beating the Cats would be helpful.

I'd rather finish second and play dogs in the first final rather than the prelim.

Why is that? We will probably have to beat them when ever we play them. Lets play them in the preliminary I say.

[Spinner]

Results of the last game the teams in the Grand Final played.

2008: Geelong beat Hawks (Rd 17)
2007: Port beat Geelong (Rd 21)
2006: Swans beat Eagles(QF)
2005: Eagles beat Swans (QF)
2004: Brisbane beat Port (Rd 11)
2003: Collingwood beat Brisbane (QF)
2002: Collingwood beat Brisbane (Rd 8?)


Tank Rd 14?

Amazing stats...Happens a lot in local footy as well.

I believe it has a lot to do with extra motivation, extra preparation and a sort of nothing to lose, risk taking attitude to fix the mistakes that contributed to the previous loss.

Here hoping a loss in R14 will much much more than a win!

[HarveysDeciple]

It's a a home and away game.

All I want out of it is a confidence and a belief that we can beat Geelong.

Even if we don't beat them and it's close, as long as I can walk away and say we are capable of beating them in September that's what we need.

Win it and yes it certainly proves that.

[StSteven]

If we beat Cats in round 14 we will be optimistic we can beat them in the GF.
If we lose to Cats in round 14 we will ne optimistic we will have learnt enough and will lift enough to beat them in the GF.

That is what supporters do. Stuff science and truth, i even listen to astrologers if they say we will win. Those astrologers who say we will lose are just charlatans!

[desertsaint]

If we lose to Cats in round 14 we will ne optimistic we will have learnt enough and will lift enough to beat them in the GF.
!

what if we get absolutely thrashed, or alternatively, give our all and are well handled? I'd think either scenario may well see such a loss of confidence we'd lose a few more games.

[StSteven]

If we lose to Cats in round 14 we will ne optimistic we will have learnt enough and will lift enough to beat them in the GF.
!

what if we get absolutely thrashed, or alternatively, give our all and are well handled? I'd think either scenario may well see such a loss of confidence we'd lose a few more games.

If that happens I will go to the record books and find an example of ateam that got thrashed and won the flag. I am sure I will find some confirming evidence to suit my beliefs.

As a lst resort we can turn to religion, praying and miracles as evidence.

[saint patrick]

If we lose to Cats in round 14 we will ne optimistic we will have learnt enough and will lift enough to beat them in the GF.
!

what if we get absolutely thrashed, or alternatively, give our all and are well handled? I'd think either scenario may well see such a loss of confidence we'd lose a few more games.

If that happens I will go to the record books and find an example of ateam that got thrashed and won the flag. I am sure I will find some confirming evidence to suit my beliefs.

As a lst resort we can turn to religion, praying and miracles as evidence.

Can remember Adelaide being thrashed in their first final against Melbourne in 97 or was it 98 and we all know what happened later

Pretty sure Collingwood had stitched us up twice with one a ten goal margin in 66 before that glorious day

[desertsaint]

If we lose to Cats in round 14 we will ne optimistic we will have learnt enough and will lift enough to beat them in the GF.
!

what if we get absolutely thrashed, or alternatively, give our all and are well handled? I'd think either scenario may well see such a loss of confidence we'd lose a few more games.

If that happens I will go to the record books and find an example of ateam that got thrashed and won the flag. I am sure I will find some confirming evidence to suit my beliefs.

As a lst resort we can turn to religion, praying and miracles as evidence.

Can remember Adelaide being thrashed in their first final against Melbourne in 97 or was it 98 and we all know what happened later

Pretty sure Collingwood had stitched us up twice with one a ten goal margin in 66 before that glorious day

good enough for me - i'm staying on the bandwagon regardless of whether any wheels fall off or not! (not that i could fall off - my heart got nailgunned on in the late 70s when the wagon was a broken down kids kart!)

[bozza1980]

what about 1971?

hawthorn beat us by 2 points in the second semi and by 7 in the grand final. they also beat us by 23 points in round 15 that year.

Worse in 1997, Adelaide beat us in Rd 15 then again in the GF. So our last two Grand Finals have had previous results reoccur!!!

It's an interesting stat over the last 7 years, but considering the fact that I'm hoping for a 25-0 season, lets hope we bugger it up.

[saintsRrising]

Worse in 1997, Adelaide beat us in Rd 15 then again in the GF. So our last two Grand Finals have had previous results reoccur!!!

.

So does Sam23 still want to "tank" against the Cats?

[Bernard Shakey]

Let's just go undefeated for the whole year and set a new standard.