team R11

[jonesy]

I'll be honest,the backline looks terrible on paper. We've started to look slow and tired and we have only gone backwards in regards to that issue with selection this week.
Still,we're 10 and zip,so in Ross we trust

[Teflon]

I'll be honest,the backline looks terrible on paper. We've started to look slow and tired and we have only gone backwards in regards to that issue with selection this week.
Still,we're 10 and zip,so in Ross we trust

I think "terrible" may be an overstatement.

Terrible is what Hawthorns had this year....we are hardly in that category by bringing in Max.

[st.byron]

I'll be honest,the backline looks terrible on paper. We've started to look slow and tired and we have only gone backwards in regards to that issue with selection this week.
Still,we're 10 and zip,so in Ross we trust

Terrible??? Five of the same six who've given up the least amount of points by miles and the replacement is one of the best key defenders in the comp. Looks ok to me.

[saint3d]

I'll be honest,the backline looks terrible on paper. We've started to look slow and tired and we have only gone backwards in regards to that issue with selection this week.
Still,we're 10 and zip,so in Ross we trust

Good thing they're playing on grass and not paper, then.

Seriously, an average of 57 points against, and you think they're slow and tired? Which teams have 'fast and fresh' backlines, and how have they performed in comparison?

[jonesy]

I know i know,overstatement...big %,etc. Our backline has been great...just doesn't look right this week. Don't agree with the dawson/hudgton/Blake/Clarke combination in the one side. Too many capable skill errors to be pounced upon by small pacy crumbers.

Up until 2-3 weeks ago the backline has been the best it's ever been,and possibly best performing defence in the history of game....then Raph came back,it lost it's mojo,and some of it's certainty.
This week we lose a rebounding star in Gilbert and replace him with a bash and crash defender,a good one at that,but not the best rebounder in the side,we have already have Dawson playing his role beautifully,I don't see how doubleing that position is going to beneficial to the side? It just worry's me how we are going to rebound effectively with that quartet,and bakes also in his slump.

Anyhow,we'll see saturday how they present and how it pans out.

[rexy]

Baker and Ray to Campbell and Thomas
Dawson on Hale
Blake on Petrie including in the ruck?
Max to get Warren or Swallow up forward and then swing onto McIntosh if he rests forward?

Jones may get Wells I think, not necessarily there best ball winner but most damaging by foot if he gets loose.

Mini may play the forward tag type role on Mcmahon or Urquart probably their best users out of the back.

Dont see Thompson being able to go with Kosi in the air, Firrito and Gibson will have to swap on Roo i would have thought, unless they give Grima first crack which would be a massive ask.

Our back line is better, our forward line is better, our midfield is better.
Neither of our genuine ruckman is as good as McIntosh but if Blake can play on Petrie all day then McEvoy and King can rotate on one ruckman and should wear him down?

Saints by 40+

[st.byron]

I know i know,overstatement...big %,etc. Our backline has been great...just doesn't look right this week. Don't agree with the dawson/hudgton/Blake/Clarke combination in the one side. Too many capable skill errors to be pounced upon by small pacy crumbers.

Up until 2-3 weeks ago the backline has been the best it's ever been,and possibly best performing defence in the history of game....then Raph came back,it lost it's mojo,and some of it's certainty.
This week we lose a rebounding star in Gilbert and replace him with a bash and crash defender,a good one at that,but not the best rebounder in the side,we have already have Dawson playing his role beautifully,I don't see how doubleing that position is going to beneficial to the side? It just worry's me how we are going to rebound effectively with that quartet,and bakes also in his slump.

Anyhow,we'll see saturday how they present and how it pans out.

I get what you're on about. It's the balance that looks different. Still think that people are seriously forgetting what an a seriously good footballer Max is. His inclusion is a plus. Granted Sam Gilbert has been great this year and losing him is a disadvantage, but it still looks more than solid to me.

[HarveysDeciple]

Baker and Ray to Campbell and Thomas
Dawson on Hale
Blake on Petrie including in the ruck?
Max to get Warren or Swallow up forward and then swing onto McIntosh if he rests forward?

Jones may get Wells I think, not necessarily there best ball winner but most damaging by foot if he gets loose.

Mini may play the forward tag type role on Mcmahon or Urquart probably their best users out of the back.

Dont see Thompson being able to go with Kosi in the air, Firrito and Gibson will have to swap on Roo i would have thought, unless they give Grima first crack which would be a massive ask.

Our back line is better, our forward line is better, our midfield is better.
Neither of our genuine ruckman is as good as McIntosh but if Blake can play on Petrie all day then McEvoy and King can rotate on one ruckman and should wear him down?

Saints by 40+

yeah pretty much.

[saintly]

what about dawson as a half back and runner? he did well at times last week.

[perfectionist]

Clearly our worst team "selected" so far this year, but with three injuries, someone had to come in. The ins are our youngest player in the team (19) and our oldest player in the team (32). Last year, Ben McEvoy played one game and did not take a contested mark in that game. Max Hudghton played 23 games in 2008 and took one contested mark for the whole year! Whoever it was against must count themselves extremely unlucky.

Nth Melbourne have their strongest side for many weeks but our bogey man over recent years (Shannon Grant) has retired. We should win, but right now I'd settle for "a close one" like last week - a six goal win.

[spert]

On past form, Max should be an OK inclusion for Gilbert, but his past form is not enough for selection this season and he needs to put a big game in to justify his selection, as he is now playing in the best defence in the comp and the best this club has had for decades.

[saint66au]

Last year, Ben McEvoy played one game and did not take a contested mark in that game. Max Hudghton played 23 games in 2008 and took one contested mark for the whole year! Whoever it was against must count themselves extremely unlucky.

Well seeing as there are less than a dozen contested marks taken in an average game now..and it was Mac's first game of AFL Footy..I reckon thats perfectly fine

Gee you'll find any sort of stat to discredit Max wont you? The way I see it, you dont want your No 1 defender flying for contested marks...seeing as you are stats-boy, how many spoils did he make last year and where did that sit among the AFL's best key defenders? far more relevant statistic I reckon.

I too reckon RL might have a role in mind for Zac a little further up at HB..he's got some toe and while he's no BJ by foot, hes OK

[saintly]

Clearly our worst team "selected" so far this year, Last year, Ben McEvoy played one game and did not take a contested mark in that game.

Nth Melbourne have their strongest side for many weeks but our bogey man over recent years (Shannon Grant) has retired. We should win, but right now I'd settle for "a close one" like last week - a six goal win.

this year ben has played 1 gaem he had 15 hitouts. 7 disposals, 4 marks 1 tackle. Not too bad for only a 2nd gamer.

[Thinline]

Would possibly prefer to see Maguire in. Looks a better balance with him there, maybe?

Sort of look at Zac and Max and think they are similar, wheras Goose can do what they do (at least on the second tall) and be shuffled forward if the need arose? Prob a bit surer by foot, too...

Just thinking out aloud...

[Ghost Like]

Up until 2-3 weeks ago the backline has been the best it's ever been,and possibly best performing defence in the history of game....then Raph came back,it lost it's mojo,and some of it's certainty.

What's that mean jonesy? It was Raph's first game back last week and he now gets blamed for the 1 or 2 weeks preceeding his return.

Happy to see McEvoy get some more game time. I would like to see him string a couple together and measure himself against Kreuzer the following week, whether that means Gards sits out until after the bye or Kingy misses.

[terry smith rules]

hate to see you guys if we were actually losing games!!!

I am quite sure that Zac has shown enough that he can take on a rebounding role this week.

Has many times this year done small cameos in that role, running off his opponent, taking on someone and getting around them.

He has confidence, he is fit, his disposal is ok, I think he can let rip with Max as the dour defender.

[Unforgiven]

Im not to worried about the tall defence. I don't think they will line up as named. I think maybe Raph or Zac could go forward (unlikely), or they'll call on a past half back flanker in Goddard and Gram, to help out with the drive and run from half back.

[perfectionist]

...Gee you'll find any sort of stat to discredit Max wont you? ...

Any sort of stat? I suggest you have look at the contested backline marks of the last ten premiership teams or talk to Leo Barry about just how irrelevant such stats are, or for that matter, Bob Murray.

Or closer to home, have a look at the contested marks on our forward line this year verses every other team bar none.

It is the WINNING characteristic.

This year, until now, Zac Dawson (4), Sam Gilbert (7), Farren Ray (8), Sam Fisher (4) and Jason Blake (2) have all been doing it and that's in 10 games not 23.

The punch away always produces another contest, so while it may keep an opponent from scoring it does not prevent the opposition team from scoring. Just why some people can't understand that simple fact eludes me. It is a useful tool on a number of occasions, but are you really suggesting that Leo Barry or Bob Murray should have gone the punch in the last 30 seconds of the 2005 and 1966 GFs respectively? If we are fortunate enough to be in that position in the future we would have to hope that Max was nowhere near the ball.

[perfectionist]

...this year ben has played 1 gaem he had 15 hitouts. 7 disposals, 4 marks 1 tackle. Not too bad for only a 2nd gamer.

I agree. Wasn't criticising him.

[InkerSaint]

If there's one thing I've learned about the Saints' team selection this year it is that they are hellbent on keeping the rotation and total players used to a minimum.

A conservative injury management strategy has allowed Max to break back into the team. McEvoy being a late-season entry will go back to the twos when Gardiner comes back. But Milne and Gilbert might bide their time to return pending other injuries or suspension.

I don't think any of our players are foolish enough not to keep the discipline up. Gram's penalty the other week will have been a reminder to the group.

We have 24 good senior players, and a backup ruckman in Benny. I strongly suspect our depth won't be tested enough to see Goose make a return this year.

Shock! Horror!

There it is.

[BAM! (shhhh)]

...Gee you'll find any sort of stat to discredit Max wont you? ...

Any sort of stat? I suggest you have look at the contested backline marks of the last ten premiership teams or talk to Leo Barry about just how irrelevant such stats are, or for that matter, Bob Murray.

Or closer to home, have a look at the contested marks on our forward line this year verses every other team bar none.

It is the WINNING characteristic.

This year, until now, Zac Dawson (4), Sam Gilbert (7), Farren Ray (8), Sam Fisher (4) and Jason Blake (2) have all been doing it and that's in 10 games not 23.

The punch away always produces another contest, so while it may keep an opponent from scoring it does not prevent the opposition team from scoring. Just why some people can't understand that simple fact eludes me. It is a useful tool on a number of occasions, but are you really suggesting that Leo Barry or Bob Murray should have gone the punch in the last 30 seconds of the 2005 and 1966 GFs respectively? If we are fortunate enough to be in that position in the future we would have to hope that Max was nowhere near the ball.

I believe Silvagni is on record as believing that the punch is pretty much the measure of the backman (I'm paraphrasing, can't remember where I read that), and Silvagni was a fair hand as a fullback.

Personally, I absolutely believe that Leo Barry should have gone the punch in the last 30 seconds of the 2005 grand final. It would have made a much less spectacular piece of video, but the chances of that grab going wrong and spilling to ground with West Coast crumbing it in front of goals were much greater than they would have been with a boundary throw in 25 metres out with 20 seconds on the clock (where the likely scenario given Sydney is either a punch from the ruck up the ground to another stoppage, or quicly killing the play should West Coast get first hands for a stoppage with the clock running). The mark iced the game, and in sports we tend to allow the ends to justify the means, but it was a very risky play.

Spoiling is a percentage play. Especially deep in defense where the contested mark has less rebound value than it does along half back or nominally inside the 50 where it generates a quick rebound. Contested marking is an invaluable skill, but the dismissal of the ability to shut out a player because they play the percentages correctly close to goal and don't apply a seperate skill when dragged out of position is irrational.

Contested marking is a great skill, but statistically is contextual to a degree we don't get delivered from the statsmen. To play for one presents the opportunity to your opponent as well. Their main value (IMO, can't claim to have any statistical proof) is marking from opposition, and increases as you mvoe farther away from your defensive goals to rebound, or in your forward line regardless of who kicked it. I'd suggest that those FB's who regularly play for the contested mark close to goal also would trend to give up more set shots close to goal.

While the punch leads to a 50/50 contest in theory, in the backline this will rarely actually be the case as you'll have a numerical advantage... onballers will ensure it's not as good as 60/40, but it'll be better than 50/50. Your opposition need to win the ball, create a shot and convert. Conversely, if you contest the mark and lose, your opponent gets a set shot at goal.

In reverse to your famous Leo Barry example, consider every kick after the siren you've ever seen, and ask yourself whether you've seen more game saving marks, or more opportunities the other way. If Max were on the field and Penny hadnt gone down hurt, would whispers in the sky ever have happened? A quick look via google tells me 31 games have been won with goals kicked after the siren, 5 drawn with goals after the siren, 2 won with points after the siren, and 5 drawn with points after the siren. Another 9 have been missed with after the siren shots.

I wonder how many of those shots could have been avoided with a good punch.

[PJ]

There seems to be an opinion that Zac and Max are the same kind of player - ever thought that Zac is doing Max's role and that perhaps this might free him up a bit. I don't think they are anything alike, i think it's more like Zac can cover that role and do perhaps more.

[Spinner]

Last year, Ben McEvoy played one game and did not take a contested mark in that game. Max Hudghton played 23 games in 2008 and took one contested mark for the whole year! Whoever it was against must count themselves extremely unlucky.

Well seeing as there are less than a dozen contested marks taken in an average game now..and it was Mac's first game of AFL Footy..I reckon thats perfectly fine

Gee you'll find any sort of stat to discredit Max wont you? The way I see it, you dont want your No 1 defender flying for contested marks...seeing as you are stats-boy, how many spoils did he make last year and where did that sit among the AFL's best key defenders? far more relevant statistic I reckon.

I too reckon RL might have a role in mind for Zac a little further up at HB..he's got some toe and while he's no BJ by foot, hes OK

Also, Silvagni's style was to always punch the ball, whether it be over the boundary line, through the goals - even when clear to mark....Makes a bigger statement in his words ive heard.

[bigcarl]

But Milne and Gilbert might bide their time to return pending other injuries or suspension.

both will walk back in when fully fit imo. they are bona fide starting 18 players and a couple of lesser lights will make way for them.

[the_D_train]

I remember faintly that one game Silvangi was commentating against the Swans ?
Anyway something along the lines of:
Sam Fisher was in a one on one with BBBBH and got rid of him.
He then went for a mark and dropped it.
To which BBBBH picked up the loose ball and kicked a goal.
Silvangi then said that Sam Fisher should of stamped himself on the game and make a statement early (as a KP defender), by thumping the ball over the boundary line.

It was something along the lines of that, i think