Hi guys, I write weekly match previews for a number of Collingwood boards. I watch all games of footy so have a great all-round knowledge...but i particularly know St.Kilda because my family barrack for the Saints and i go to most of their matches.
This is a very in depth piece...and it takes ages to write and research. So i think you guys will find it interesting. It is as unbiased as possible, but i suppose has a slight Collingwood lean to it...although the majority of it is an analysis of the Saints and how we can beat you guys.
Comments would be appreciated, I love a good discussion. Thanks and enjoy
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Collingwood vs St.Kilda is always a much anticipated game for me. Coming from a family that is 50% St.Kilda and 50% Collingwood means this game is always a big event. I’ve managed to get to 3 St.Kilda games this year and have watched every other on television and have been really impressed. So, this weeks match preview is going to be a really in depth analysis of this weeks game because I’m in a fantastic position to give a totally unbiased and neutral account of what is making St.Kilda the standout team early in 2009. It’s fair to say I’ve been looking forward to preparing this preview for a few weeks now and I’m fired up.
First of all, I truly believe Collingwood can win this game. This reminds me a lot of the Round 9 clash against Geelong last year. Geelong were all but unbeatable last year and Collingwood were in patchy form. Following the Geelong win, Collingwood went on to win the next 3 games and basically cemented a finals spot.
We have all had our say about Malthouse, but he is the master of preparing a game-plan to unravel the good sides. What’s more, Collingwood has won the last 3 home and away encounters against the Saints, all in very close matches. However, it was St.Kilda who humiliated Collingwood in the Semi-Fina last year which was the last time these 2 sides met.
St.Kilda have obviously had a blistering start to the year. They are scoring far easier than they have done in the previous 2 years under Ross Lyon, and are restricting sides to lower scores. They have an unbelievable percentage of nearly 200, and have beaten top 8 sides. Collingwood on the other hand still struggle for consistency. The Pies took an undermanned North Melbourne side to pieces last Friday night, but were underwhelming against a lowly ranked Essendon side on ANZAC day. However, the season could have looked a lot different considering 2 of Collingwood’s 3 losses have been by less than a kick, and the opportunity was perhaps there for Collingwood in the 2nd quarter against Geelong. But good sides make the most of their chances, and Collingwood have failed to capitalise on momentum when they’ve had it this year.
This game will be played on Monday night at Etihad Stadium. This means a 10 day break for Collingwood, and 9 for St.Kilda. It will be interesting to see if the crowd responds to this timeslot. I think ratings will be good, but it may cost attendance at the ground.
It is fair to say the next 2 weeks are critical for Collingwood. They will go in as underdogs against St.Kilda this week, and then face last years bogey side Carlton. Collingwood cannot afford to be 3 wins and 5 losses. I’m sure many fans would gladly accept a loss against St.Kilda if it meant beating Carlton…but I think this is a huge opportunity for Collingwood to really get some respect back in the competition and really get some momentum going.
For St.Kilda, taking down Collingwood, Pt.Adelaide and Western Bulldogs in consecutive weeks pretty much confirms they are the real deal and almost a lock for a top 2 spot considering they’ll take a 3 game head-start against Hawthorn.
So let’s get this preview underway by having an in depth look at the Saints and why they have started 2009 so good…and what is different to 2008.
What needs to happen to beat the Saints – An in depth look at their side?
Firstly, the balance of St.Kilda is very good at the moment. They have 2 genuine tall forwards in good form, with 2 crumbers and a few options to play as mid-sized forwards. In the midfield they have 2 genuine star in and unders, 2 classy players with pace, 2 taggers and a few outsiders. Down back they seem undermanned, but the structure is good and all their defenders attack off their man. They also have a few guys who offer dash out of defence.
Nick Dal Santo and Leigh Montagna are the 2 classy midfielders. Both would have been slightly underwhelmed with their 2008 season…Dal Santo in particular. However both have stepped up and are in career best form. They are now dealing with tags and doing a fair job of it.
The other 2 genuine star players in the St.Kilda midfield are Lenny Hayes and Luke Ball who I have classed as the 2 in and unders. Lenny Hayes had a modified start to the season but is now playing more gametime and is getting a stack of the footy. Luke Ball seems to have recovered from his groin troubles and is moving better and disposing of the footy better.
But you have to also look outside these 4 guys. There are a number of players who have probably been classed as ‘2nd-tier’ guys for a while now but are really establishing themselves in the AFL.
The first would be Brendon Goddard. He was good last year as a loose defender, but was probably unable to push into the midfield after coming off a knee reconstruction in 2007. This year, he has played forward, back and midfield and his footskills are hurting sides. Remarkably, the Western Bulldogs paid him no respect last week and he won a lot of the footy and was very damaging. In the matchup’s section below, I’ll discuss the strategy Collingwood should employ to cover him, but for the time being it is fair to say Collingwood cannot allow him to play loose across half back or through the middle.
Farren Ray has come across from the Western Bulldogs and is fast establishing himself as a top-tier player. Many were quick to write this guy off, but I never did. I think when he first came into the AFL, he was always going to be a 3 year prospect simply because he was so skinny. In that 3 years, the Doggies uncovered a wealth of midfield talent, and Ray was pushed to the back of the pecking order. Like Adam Cooney who was the pick 1 in his draft, Ray is now in his peak, but was never given the opportunity at the Bulldogs. Since converting over to the Saints, he has a role and has put on significant bulk in his upper body.
Sam Gilbert has been fantastic in the absence of Hudghton and Maguire. He also has put on significant size over pre-season. I think he is playing in the Sam Fisher mould in that he has responsibility for an opponent, but looks to play very offensively. He is winning 20+ possessions a game and setting up a lot of attack. Last week he played on Brad Johnson and did a great job.
Clinton Jones was classed by many as a dud. However, in the absence of Dempster, he has now been given tagging duties and has beaten every opponent so far, which includes Daniel Kerr, Griffen, Pearce and Hasleby. Going the other way, he is winning a stack of footy and kicking goals. You only have to look at his Dream Team and Super Coach points to see how much of the pill he is getting. He along with McQualter have established themselves as the taggers in the side.
The Michael Gardiner risk is starting to pay dividends for the Saints. He is a hard worker and his size intimidates most. He has also shown an ability to push forward and kick goals. The Saints have been without a dominant ruckman for a long time, and this year have 2 genuine 1st rate rucks in Gardiner and King. King may miss again with his hamstring problem, but both rucks have genuinely given the Saints first use of the ball.
The St.Kilda gameplan
Ross Lyon has basically admitted he was too defensive in his first years of coaching. However, it may have been an acceptable price to pay to develop this new found discipline and pressure they are exhibiting in 2009. This year, Lyon has also permitted a more attacking style of game, whilst still maintaining a suffocating defence.
At times, and this was the case against the Bulldogs, the Saints go back to shut down mode and maintain possession. But what is different in 2009 is that the Saints now have the ability to open the game right up and kick more goals.
Ross Lyon has adapted the game-plan over pre-season. It is now a combination of his old Sydney style, but also encompasses a lot of the Hawthorn style as well.
What is very noticeable is the zone the Saints are employing. In the past, the Saints have flooded a lot. This year, they press up on their opponents. The defence comes right up to the centre-line with guys like Gilbert, Goddard, Dawson and Blake forming the outer perimeter. Last week, the Bulldogs were starved of all run. This is because they were not allowed any free possession in the backline. The Saints were right up on them, pressuring every disposal. Whereas in the past the Saints may have held back. When the Doggies were able to get the ball out of defence, it was ugly and laboured. Collingwood will face the same challenges on Monday.
Like, Hawthorn, the Saints have a good forward line. Riewoldt and Kosi are tough match-ups. Riewoldt usually takes 3-5 rounds to warm up, but this year only took the 1. This is despite an interrupted pre-season. I thought Riewoldt was best on ground against the Bulldogs. His work-rate is just astonishing to watch live. Milne and Schneider are also benefitting from the good form of their talls and are kicking many crumbing goals.
The Options for Collingwood
There are a few options for the Magpies. Plan A has to be quick ball movement. If you work your way through the zone, I still feel that the St.Kilda defence can be exploited 1 on 1. We might see the re-match of Rocca and Zac Dawson, and you would still back big Anthony in a marking contest. But you wouldn’t if the Saints are given time to get numbers back and crowd him.
We’ll also perhaps see the re-match of Blake and Cloke. Blake probably has had the better of these matchups…but Cloke still remains the more talented and versatile player.
So I would back in the Collingwood forwards. However, I would only back them in if the ball movement is quick and sharp. This is far easier said than done, because the Saints will make it near impossible to create run off the backline. If the Western Bulldogs could not do it, then Collingwood are going to really struggle considering the Dogs are renowned for their run and quick ball movement.
So that makes centre clearances very important. The Saints pride themselves on their tough onball division, but Collingwood has been fantastic in the clearances this year. If there is one area Collingwood has improved in this year, it has been clearances.
Collingwood has 4 players in the top 25 for clearances (Pendlebury, O’Bree, Fraser, Swan). The leading St.Kilda clearance player is Lenny Hayes who ranks 12th and Luke Ball who ranks 18th. So Collingwood may actually back themselves to win the clearances. This will be essential because the Pies do not want to be caught across half back, and if the Saints are winning the clearances, this is where the ball will be.
Over-handballing did not work against St.Kilda last week. The pressure St.Kilda applied was too good. Western Bulldogs only played into the Saints hand by over-possessing the football. So Collingwood may try to move the ball on quick…but over-possessing is not the answer either.
Therefore, if Collingwood’s strength lies in the clearances, then I think we’ll see the team revert to the wide game-plan and we’ll see a lot of boundary throw ins and ball ups. If the Pies are unable to move the ball out of defence, a 55 metre punt out wide to the boundary is a better option than trying to pinpoint a 15 metre pass to a contested situation.
We may therefore see a very messy game. Collingwood will not mind that. But this will only work if Collingwood applies the same sort of pressure they did against Geelong last year, and Brisbane up at the Gabba 2 weeks ago. The tackling pressure is going to be the key to this game. St.Kilda are the benchmark at the moment, but Collingwood at its best has been the benchmark in the last 2 years. I’m looking forward to seeing some ferocious contests.
Recent History
I don’t think recent history counts for a lot between these 2 sides. Although Collingwood has won 3 of the last 4 games against the Saints, they are a different prospect this year. The best benchmark to compare against is the Semi-Final last year where the Saints outmuscled a young Collingwood outfit.
In Round 19 last year, Collingwood was coming off a horrible week following the Heath Shaw and Alan Didak incident. They went in very undermanned into the match and defied the odds to win.
But in the Semi-Final last year, it was Dal Santo and Montagna who took the Pies to the cleaners with 32 and 29 respectively. Sam Fisher was also dominant down back with 17 marks and Blake took 18 marks.
It demonstrates incredible unaccountability by Collingwood. I don’t think allowing these guys so much of the ball is a smart move. Riewoldt, Koschitzke and Milne also kicked 11 goals between them.
Collingwood’s highest possession winner was Pendlebury with 23. The Saints dominated possession and were harder in at it.
The Teams
As I write this preview, it is Tuesday morning and I have limited information about Collingwood’s injury list and whether John Anthony will accept his 1 week ban.
Both sides have had relatively good run with injuries, atleast up until this week. The Saints will still be without Hudghton for atleast 1 more week. Xavier Clarke has ruptured his ACL and will be out for the season, whilst King faces a fitness test this week. With a 9 day break, he may come into consideration.
Collingwood has a few injury concerns. Medhurst will struggle to be fit after rolling his ankle on Friday night. The 10 day break should allow him to pull up. You can guarantee he’ll be named in the squad anyway given teams will be released 4 days prior to the game.
Dayne Beams also suffered a slight adductor injury on Friday night and may miss a game. Apparently it is not overly serious, but given he is a first year player he may be nursed.
Nathan Brown should be ok to play after he missed portions of the Friday night game.
Alan Didak will miss at least another 2 games after tearing his hamstring.
John Anthony will also most likely miss 1 game after been sighted by the MRP. At this stage, I am unsure as to whether Collingwood will appeal, but I feel they will accept the sentence…especially after Mick’s spray at Jack on Friday.
The interesting selections surround Heath Shaw and Anthony Rocca who were late changes against the Kangaroos. I have no doubt both will be fit to play, however both are out of form and perhaps not deserving of a spot. Given the other injuries and suspensions, I think we’ll see both return.
I think the ultimate changes for Collingwood will be:
In: Shaw, Rocca
Out: Anthony, Beams
I’d preferably like to see a ruckman come into the side to help Josh. Perhaps Bryan. That would be at the expense of Leigh Brown who I thought was ordinary on Friday night.
I’d also love to see Stanley come into the side after his 4 goal and 30 possession game in the VFL, or Sidebottom who has had a month of consistent VFL football, named in the best again last week. But given Collingwood won by 50+ points on the weekend, I doubt we’ll see more than 2 changes which may both be forced.
If Medhurst misses, then perhaps we’ll see Sidebottom or Stanley play with extra responsibility placed on Macaffer. Otherwise, to date Macaffer has not had a major role in the forward line and may be dropped for another midfielder. Brent has however been effective in terms of goal-assists.
I think the Saints will go in unchanged.
The Matchups
St.Kilda forward line:
Riewoldt v Presti – I don’t love the sound of the matchup, but Presti is in great form and has to get the job on the St.Kilda champion. If Presti has a weakness, it is playing against giants, so I doubt he is suited to Koshitzke. The cover of Maxwell will be important.
Koschitzke v Nathan Brown – Brown is back into some better form. Kosi was eased back in last week from his hamstring complaint.
Milne v Harry O’Brien – Harry did the job in round 19 last year and I think Collingwood will use Harry again for this matchup. Milne is playing fantastic football in 2009 and I think is underrated. He requires close checking, and Harry is as close checking as they come and should match him for speed. He seems to enjoy playing on smaller opponents.
Toovey v Schneider – Schneiderman was fantastic last week kicking 3 goals. Toovey has been effective shutting down small forwards, so will most likely get the job here.
Midfield:
Collingwood’s only hope of winning this game is in the midfield. If St.Kilda dominate disposal, they will simply shut Collingwood down across half back or maintain possession themselves.
O’Bree v Hayes – The 2 clearance experts at their respective clubs. O’bree becomes vital this week.
Swan v Ball – Saints may elect to tag Swan, but I think they’ll concentrate on the better ball users. This could be a head to head clash. Would be a fantastic and tough matchup.
McQualter v Pendlebury – I think the Saints will use McQualter to tag Pendlebury. Pendles has been our leading disposal and clearance player in 2009, and has good disposal efficiency. The Saints won’t ignore this. Pendlebury will have to start learning to deal with tags so this will be a great test.
Davis v Clint Jones – Jones is the St.Kilda designated tagger and he has been doing jobs on the pacier game-breakers. He has also been running off his opponents. Leon Davis is Collingwood’s best player at the moment, but he will have to show good defensive awareness because Jones will run off him. I think we’ll see this matchup eventuate.
Barham v Montagna – I think Collingwood should run young Jaxson on Montagna. Leigh is quick and damaging by foot, so it would be a big mistake to allow him to run free. Barham is a fantastic tackler and is lightning quick, and may also be able to exploit a lack of accountability by Montagna.
Wellingham v Dal Santo – St.Kilda’s best player at the moment, and must be tagged. Wellingham made a name for himself tagging Ablett Jnr last year. He is a tough tackler and damaging himself…and lightning quick. Wellingham will have a big responsibility to create some dash in the midfield and take the game on…but defensively I’d like him to check Dal Santo very closely. Otherwise Toovey may be used more in the midfield in this role.
My Key Matchup - ***Maxwell v Goddard – This is my solution for Goddard. Maxwell played this role against Scott Thompson to great success. The advantage here is that Maxwell can play on Goddard in any position and matches him in the air.
I may be criticised for saying this, but I feel Goddard is suspect under pressure. I’ve seen him make some terrible errors when he is forced to make a split second decision. When left with space and time, he is one of the most damaging players in the AFL. The Doggies gave him this space, and he answered devastatingly.
I also think at times Goddard can be unaccountable. To watch him at a game, he is constantly pointing and barking out orders. But at times I feel he is quick to lay blame. Last week I observed a passage of play where he was so busy telling everyone who to man up, that he ignored a loose Bulldog defender who was his responsibility. That player kicked a goal and was left unchecked in the forward line.
Put the pressure on Goddard. Make him accountable and work off him.
Lockyer v Ray – Tarks is coming off a 4 goal game against the Roo’s, whilst Ray had a fantastic 31 possession game against his former club. Considering Lockyer has a knack of popping forward for a goal, this may force Ray to play accountable. Ray is good overhead and is showing greater signs of toughness…but I think to this stage Lockyer has always shown a greater willingness to put his head over it.
Collingwood forward line:
Rocca v Dawson – many would be hoping for this matchup again. We all remember Rocca’s humiliation of a young Zac Dawson whilst he was playing for Hawthorn. I think Zac has come a long way since, but you would still fancy Rocca in a marking contest. I think Lyon would have no hesitation to throw the challenge down to Dawson who has been very good this year. He has held up with the big 2 defenders for the Saints down with injury.
Cloke v Blake – Blake usually takes Cloke, and I don’t think it will be different this year…although without John Anthony the Saints may chose to run Fisher on him. Cloke is not in good form, but his work-rate was good against the Kangaroos, and hopefully his best is not far away.
Fisher v Medhurst – Fisher will work off him and probably cover him in the air. However, Medhurst must ensure Fisher is held accountable and not allowed to run off. Medhurst is an incredibly dangerous player and is very creative himself…so a few early goals would ensure Fisher does not zone off for another 18 lazy marks.
Gilbert v Macaffer – Gilbert did a good job on Brad Johnson last week. He is another who enjoys zoning off and creating a bit of play.
Thomas v Gram – This may be a good opportunity to use Thomas defensively again. Thomas was very good playing on Drummond a few weeks back, so may be used in this defensive forward role again. Dale is another whose form has been underwhelming, but his work-rate has also been very good. Gram is the St.Kilda playmarker out of defence, so attention has to be put into him.
The Saints don’t have a lot of run off half back in terms of pace…but they are full of attacking tall defenders. If Collingwood can shut down Gram, then it will stop a lot of attacking play from the Saints. Thomas has to make Gram accountable.
Corrie v Baker – Bakes has been playing as a small defender this year and is doing a good job of it. Corrie had a really good debut game for Collingwood last week, and will play as a small forward, which in turn allows Leon Davis more gametime in the middle.
The Wrap Up
This is 1st vs 5th and is what I consider Match of the Round. St.Kilda are rightly favourites, which is a position I feel more comfortable in been a Collingwood supporter.
Could this be a repeat of the round 9 clash against Geelong where Collingwood stunned the competition?
Can St.Kilda maintain this level of intensity for the 7th week running?
Does Collingwood have the grunt in the middle to shut down the Saints?
All will be answered on Monday night. The 10 day break will ensure both sides are fresh are ready to go.
The Saints will win this game comfortably if Collingwood does not bring its best tackling game to the table. I think the Pies will look to make this a tough in and under contest. Both sides pride themselves in this area, but if Collingwood is any chance then it has to take out the class factor and make it a scrap.
The Saints are disciplined and well structured. On paper, and looking at things logically, the Pies will struggle to break through the zone. But it is about time Collingwood learn to counter this tactic and earn back the respect of the AFL.
Every time I’ve tipped against Collingwood this year, they’ve won….so St.Kilda by 30.
See you guys on Monday.
By David Natoli
aka DaVe86
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