A one year premiership wonder

[perfectionist]

After (half watching) tonight's drubbing by Sydney of Hawthorn (with the usual help of a few lucky frees), I was wondering about the one premiership (and then nothing) phenomenon. Then I thought , "we should have been so lucky"! On the basis of statistical probability, after our win in 1966, and given that there were only twelve teams in the comp then, we should have won our next sometime in the following twelve years and by 1978 at the latest. Those who were around at the time will not doubt attest to the fact that, in 1978, we were a real chance up until the last game. Then, the next window of opportunity, probability wise, would be in the next 13 years, given that part way through that period the competition expanded to 15 teams. Once again, the historians in the group will recall that 1991 was again a real chance, again up until the last game when G Ablett Snr whacked N Burke. Next, with an expansion to 16 teams during the 90s, the window of opportunity was (probability wise) around 2004 - 2008. Say no more. Oh, to have been a one premiership wonder.

PS Perhaps the Heisenberg uncertainty principle extends the latest window to 2009.

[stinger]

we should have won in 1971.....

[ausfatcat]

probability wise was different back then no draft / salary cap and a lot of cheque book footy changes the probability. And probability wise there is no set period, it might be more probable thou...

Most people would say the saints should've won 3 or 4 premierships between 65 and 72

[Mark]

I would be happy to be a one year Premiership winner wonder anytime.

[Saint Bev]

Not sure what you mean by this comment "Those who were around at the time will not doubt attest to the fact that, in 1978, we were a real chance up until the last game."

I was at that game, we beat Carlton at Moorabbin. That was the year of the animals, a blight on our name thanks to the sooks at Essendon. We were relying on Fitzroy to beat Geelong to get us into the five, but they couldn't do it. Remember that year well and have never forgiven Essendon.

Oh, that win rnd 22 last year was, sweet in many ways

[WayneJudson42]

Not sure what you mean by this comment "Those who were around at the time will not doubt attest to the fact that, in 1978, we were a real chance up until the last game."

I was at that game, we beat Carlton at Moorabbin. That was the year of the animals, a blight on our name thanks to the sooks at Essendon. We were relying on Fitzroy to beat Geelong to get us into the five, but they couldn't do it. Remember that year well and have never forgiven Essendon.

Oh, that win rnd 22 last year was, sweet in many ways

OOOOOh yeah. Great year, and one that got away. Still, our mid season slump didn't help.

That was a great game and the joint was packed.

[ace]

[quote="perfectionist"]
PS Perhaps the Heisenberg uncertainty principle extends the latest window to 2009.[/quote]

Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle - in quantum physics, you can't know the precise value of postion and momentum at the same time because the more precisely you know one the less you know about the other.
The uncertainity in position times the uncertainty in momentum is always greater or equal to half Planks Constant.

You can't know everything no matter how hard you try - see my signature below