St. Kilda: A fork in the road

[2007]

The Saints are now at a fork in the road (sorry Kevin!). We have two options open to us for the remainder of the 2007 season and moving forward into 2008.

1. Continue to push for the finals, and improve our 22 each week with players returning from injury. Re-gain Gram, Maxie, X, Joey, possibly Goose and Sammy and Banger after the break. Hopefully bring Gardiner in too.
Continue with Gehrig at FF, slot Maxie back at full-back and continue with Voss and Thommo off the bench. Stick with Doc Clarke in the ruck. Aim to be maybe 5-7 at the break, and then win 8 of the last 10 and position ourselves to have a real crack at the finals.

2. Conceed that a premiership is highly unlikely in 2007, but accept that a reasonably fit list at St. Kilda has the ability to win a flag. Therefore adjust our sights and refocus long-term. Keep Gwilt at CHB, let Gilbert and Armo play every game for the rest of the year and give Brooks a fair dinkum crack in the ruck.
Retire Thommo and Vossy, and play Gehrig as a flanker so that Watts can develop at FF. Develop Sweeney as a third forward and give Bally some time off to get himself back to what he can be.
In short, pump the games into the youngsters who will form the basis of our premiership side in 2008.

Such a team could look something like this (games by start of '08 in brackets):
B: L. Fisher (45), M. Hudghton (200), J. Gwilt (25)
HB: J. Gram (45), M. Maguire (85), S. Fisher (70)
C: A. Fiora (130), N. Dal Santo (120), B. Goddard (90)
HF: J. Sweeney (15), N. Riewoldt (135), L. Montagna (70)
FF: S. Milne (140), F. Watts (15), S. Gilbert (20)
Foll: B. Brooks (25), L. Ball (95), L. Hayes (200)
I/C: J. Attard (20), S. Baker (150), J. Koschitzke (100), X. Clarke (100)
Em: D. Armitage (15), C. Jones (5), M. Rix (25)

That's a young, quick and flexible line-up that is extremely different to our team of 2004-05. Not many of the same players.



We are not quite yet at the fork in the road where we have to make this decision ... the mid-season break will be the time for Ross Lyon to assess what he wants to do and which path will give the Saints their best crack at a premiership in his tenure.


With our injury list, expectations of a flag are unrealistic IMO. We could win finals in 2007, but no club can be hampered to the extent the Saints are this season.


I have enough faith in our list, coaching staff and development staff that we have the quality of players (if the group stays together) to be succesful for the next 5 years.

We are not a write-off and do not need to rebuild. We have sowed the seeds and have a knowledgeable farmer over-seeing the crop.

We just need some rain (luck with injuries) .....


You have to be constantly developing your list and changing your side in modern football. RL recognises this and will do a lot more work at the end of the year with our list to get it where he wants.

He is also building his own team, one which is very different to Grant Thomas.

Lyon has what it takes and our playing group are by and large adequate to succeed in the AFL.


So the rest of 2007 may go two ways, depending on results over the next month. A win against either the Cats or Roos would put us in good stead to make a charge in the second half of the year, whilst two losses would put our campaign in jeopardy, largely as a result of injuries.

I desperately hope that we take the first fork in the road in '07 and enjoy some success. I believe RL hopes this too.

But we ... and RL ... must keep in mind the bigger picture, and if some pain in 2007 means a premiership in 2008, then so be it.


In the meantime ... roll on Round 10 !!




(Don't you just love being a Saints supporter )

[SaintBot]

sensational post, id rather take the premiership fork atm but you have pointed out v.clearly what the other fork could do for our chances next year


agree that we should stick to the premiership for now but after the midseason break we still look poor, unjuries are still coming out of everywhere then play for 2008

[evertonfc]

World-class post.

You've summed up our predicament really, really well.

I think - for the moment - we need to keep concentrate on winning games. If we get to 4-8 or 5-9, then, yes, I reckon it's time to use the remaining games to work out the real depth of our list.

If we're realistically without a chance in 2007, then absolutely, we simply must promote youth and give the 'unknowns' a chance - and we'll find out so much more about the depth of our list.

I very much like the idea of the younger bridgade having 6-7 games under their belt heading into next season. They'll be much, much better players for it.

However, somehow, if we could win next week and keep an even record going into the break, then we should hold off - as you well say.

Although, 2007, I have to say, your proactive thinking has me impressed and I hope most posters see my view as an ultra-conservative one.

[OneEyedSainter77]

Yet another brilliant insightful post, 2007. I like both ideas but I agree that we wait til round 12 to asess which path to take.

Here's a thing to consider...

the last two years we have done superb after the mid season break, winning eight matches in the run home - 8 out of 9 in 2005 took us from 6-7 after round 13 and a miserable loss to Essendon to 14-8 and fourth place.

Last year we were 6-6 after a dismal performance against Adelaide, then famously went to Bonnie Doon and came back with a five match winning streak en route to a brilliant run home to end up 14-8 again - only this time, percentage cost us fourth place and we bundled out of the finals....

A similar run home this year (ie eight H and A wins after the mid season break would give us the following results:

If we beat ALL of Geelong, Roos and West Coast in the next three weeks, we will be 7-5 at the break, plus 8 more wins takes us to 15-7... guaranteed top four finish, and with a bit of percentage, possibilty of third or second if the season tightens up. this scenario is virtually impossible. We need a lot of luck injury wise and we need a lot of improvement to come from all the right areas.

If we beat TWO of Geelong, Roos and West Coast, we are 6-6, plus eight more wins takes us to 14-8, possible top four if we get decent percentage (two games v Richmond could help with that, but we need massive wins cos we've already fallen far behind). this is quite likely. We still need a bit of luck with injuries but less travelling will help us for sure.... we do have a fair few breaks towards the end so we must prepare for matches well.

If we win ONE of our next three - that's 5-7; eight more wins gives us 13-9, we'll play finals with that. Unless our percentage is really low in which wemay just miss out. Even if we make it, doubtful to do much.

If we win NONE of our next three, that's 4-8 and after being 4-3, its a bad sign. We'd need to win 9 or all of our remaining matches to be competitive..... it'd be an uphill struggle and even if we grab 12 wins and scrape in somehow, we'll probably travel and get knocked out first round.

IMO, if we get the first two scenarios I say we take the first fork, give 2007 a real shot and see how we go.

If we get the last two scenarios I would contemplate giving up on 2007 or in other words taking the second fork and setting up our chances for the new year....

The other thing to take into accoutn is even if we take the second fork, we may possibly still make the finals and even do something of worth this year.... what does the club want? What do the players want?

[duckduckduckgoose]

you forgot one important fact.

2007 is the last chance we have to get R.Harvey a flag.

And another thing to consider- if we choose the development route this year and miss finals, I wouldn't like our chances of retaining the blokes like dal etc coming out of contract....

[Winmarvellous]

And one more thing. I'd prefer to keep an Gardy on standby and Rix in the ruck than let Brooks anywhere near senior football again.

[luckysaint]

+B Howard

[brown-coat]

Knife edge right now.

complete and utter failure finishing in the bottom 3.

OR fight out a finals appearance.

..

umm

With Gherig, Harvey, Thommo, Hamil gone next year and some rejects delisted we'll need new players for 2008. Take the route of failure.

[saintsRrising]

Yes St Mart wrotea great post about this a few weeks back....on different paths that the club could take depending on our success in the near term.

[Riewoldting]

Prefer

FF: R. Harvey (359), F. Watts (15), S. Gilbert (20)

[2007]

Prefer

FF: R. Harvey (359), F. Watts (15), S. Gilbert (20)

I left Harvey out of the discussion because he is off-limits.

It is entirely up to him as to what he wants to do, but obviously he will always be given a game with the Saints.

I would love him to hold on next year, and I hope he does. He is certainly good enough.

[stinger]

The Saints are now at a fork in the road (sorry Kevin!). We have two options open to us for the remainder of the 2007 season and moving forward into 2008.

1. Continue to push for the finals, and improve our 22 each week with players returning from injury. Re-gain Gram, Maxie, X, Joey, possibly Goose and Sammy and Banger after the break. Hopefully bring Gardiner in too.
Continue with Gehrig at FF, slot Maxie back at full-back and continue with Voss and Thommo off the bench. Stick with Doc Clarke in the ruck. Aim to be maybe 5-7 at the break, and then win 8 of the last 10 and position ourselves to have a real crack at the finals.

2. Conceed that a premiership is highly unlikely in 2007, but accept that a reasonably fit list at St. Kilda has the ability to win a flag. Therefore adjust our sights and refocus long-term. Keep Gwilt at CHB, let Gilbert and Armo play every game for the rest of the year and give Brooks a fair dinkum crack in the ruck.
Retire Thommo and Vossy, and play Gehrig as a flanker so that Watts can develop at FF. Develop Sweeney as a third forward and give Bally some time off to get himself back to what he can be.
In short, pump the games into the youngsters who will form the basis of our premiership side in 2008.

Such a team could look something like this (games by start of '08 in brackets):
B: L. Fisher (45), M. Hudghton (200), J. Gwilt (25)
HB: J. Gram (45), M. Maguire (85), S. Fisher (70)
C: A. Fiora (130), N. Dal Santo (120), B. Goddard (90)
HF: J. Sweeney (15), N. Riewoldt (135), L. Montagna (70)
FF: S. Milne (140), F. Watts (15), S. Gilbert (20)
Foll: B. Brooks (25), L. Ball (95), L. Hayes (200)
I/C: J. Attard (20), S. Baker (150), J. Koschitzke (100), X. Clarke (100)
Em: D. Armitage (15), C. Jones (5), M. Rix (25)

That's a young, quick and flexible line-up that is extremely different to our team of 2004-05. Not many of the same players.



We are not quite yet at the fork in the road where we have to make this decision ... the mid-season break will be the time for Ross Lyon to assess what he wants to do and which path will give the Saints their best crack at a premiership in his tenure.


With our injury list, expectations of a flag are unrealistic IMO. We could win finals in 2007, but no club can be hampered to the extent the Saints are this season.


I have enough faith in our list, coaching staff and development staff that we have the quality of players (if the group stays together) to be succesful for the next 5 years.

We are not a write-off and do not need to rebuild. We have sowed the seeds and have a knowledgeable farmer over-seeing the crop.

We just need some rain (luck with injuries) .....


You have to be constantly developing your list and changing your side in modern football. RL recognises this and will do a lot more work at the end of the year with our list to get it where he wants.

He is also building his own team, one which is very different to Grant Thomas.

Lyon has what it takes and our playing group are by and large adequate to succeed in the AFL.


So the rest of 2007 may go two ways, depending on results over the next month. A win against either the Cats or Roos would put us in good stead to make a charge in the second half of the year, whilst two losses would put our campaign in jeopardy, largely as a result of injuries.

I desperately hope that we take the first fork in the road in '07 and enjoy some success. I believe RL hopes this too.

But we ... and RL ... must keep in mind the bigger picture, and if some pain in 2007 means a premiership in 2008, then so be it.


In the meantime ... roll on Round 10 !!




(Don't you just love being a Saints supporter )

good post.....

[Otiman]

I think St. Kilda FC's primary priority for this year should be to get a stable and secure fitness and injury management structure.

If this means resting players like Max for another 3 weeks than necessary, and resting Riewoldt for 2 weeks - then I am fine with that.

If we do this and find ourselves in line to make the finals come round 19-20, we should then go all-out to make and win finals.

I'd be happier with 10th and no more injuries, than 6th and an injury list of more than 5 players. Even with draft picks not taken into consideration.

[midas_touch]

Super post 2007, along with a few others, I believe you're one of the most credible posters on this site.

We have a pivotal three weeks ahead of us, for which our direction will be defined for us defined after this period. If we can be 5-7 after 12, We'd be still finals contenders. But if we lose all three games, the subsequent two months left would be better off used to blood some game time into our kids and second tier players so they are better for the experience in 2008.

[Solar]

agree totally

IMO if we are 6-6 or better by the start of round 13, then go for the first fork, if not we need to develop

I would like to see us move gehrig up to half forward/CHF. sweeney to be developed as our third tall and watts given time to make FF his own.

This set up is more flexible, with the floaters being roo, gilbert and kosi

[mbogo]

I think our team is a bit like Ess of '65 - they won GF from 4th I think - why can't WE make Ess type History and win from 8th with 3 interstate wins?
It is possible!
One day a Vic team WILL do it - I would love it to be us!
I do not think it is ideal - and love to get to top 4 - but NEVER concede! EVER!

[spert]

We could still make the finals and I am still expecting the Hawks and Cats to go off the pace as the season goes on.

[meher baba]

Being the contrarian that I am, I will not join in the general back-slapping and bonhomie on this thread.

2007, I like many of your posts, but I think that this one - although well-intentioned - is a bit off the mark.

First of all, it is coaching 101 that - once it becomes a certainty that we can't make the 8 (which would happen when we find that we are 4 wins out of 14, or 5 out of 15, or 6 out of 16, etc, etc.) - the coach should start to experiment with fringe players, or with trying out established players in new positions (eg, Gwilt up forward). Likewise, the veteran GOPs who are not going to come back next year need to to be given farewell matches at home and then bow out.

But the only obvious one of these is Thompson: who surely won't be back in 2008. Harves is surely at least a chance to play on (and, anyway, he should not be hurried off the stage and should be allowed to play out the season if he wants). Gehrig likewise: so why play him on the flank if we think he might be coming back as a FF in 2008? And Voss: he's only 29 FFS and is surely worth another season or two, even if he only plays in the top 22 sporadically.

The point I think you have missed is that the guys we should be dropping in order to give the young chaps a go are not the Thommos and Vosses, but our physically vulnerable stars who need to be wrapped in cotton wool to ensure that they are ready to go in 2008: Riewoldt, Hayes, Ball, Kosi, X, Gram, etc. I would avoid playing these guys on the bigger grounds and/or against the more physical teams unless I was certain that they are 100% fit. The exceptions to this rule would be Hamill (if he comes back), Raph and Maguire, who will need to be given the opportunity to prove themselves.

[n1ck]

but NEVER concede! EVER!

mhmm!!

[The OtherThommo]

I think Port Adelaide are an interesting case. After '04 Mark Williams set about reconstructing their list. Last year he played a shyteload of kids. Around about round 16 last year he put the cue in the rack. He sent those players who needed a bit of reconstructive surgery to have it done and tried various players who remained in different roles.

Because the medically bound had been dealt with early, they started the preseason on time. So, when '07 started they were ready, with a better fitness base. I think their is a case for us to consider a similar approach IF we get to round 16 or 17 with little chance of playing finals in any sort of shape.

Williams might be an annoying sort of pillock but he can think out of the square.

[saintly]

World-class post.

You've summed up our predicament really, really well.

I think - for the moment - we need to keep concentrate on winning games. If we get to 4-8 or 5-9, then, yes, I reckon it's time to use the remaining games to work out the real depth of our list.

If we're realistically without a chance in 2007, then absolutely, we simply must promote youth and give the 'unknowns' a chance - and we'll find out so much more about the depth of our list.

I very much like the idea of the younger bridgade having 6-7 games under their belt heading into next season. They'll be much, much better players for it.

However, somehow, if we could win next week and keep an even record going into the break, then we should hold off - as you well say.

Although, 2007, I have to say, your proactive thinking has me impressed and I hope most posters see my view as an ultra-conservative one.

there isn't that many unknowns left to try.

raymond, wall and sweeney who else?????

brooks?

[plugger66]

I think our team is a bit like Ess of '65 - they won GF from 4th I think - why can't WE make Ess type History and win from 8th with 3 interstate wins?
It is possible!
One day a Vic team WILL do it - I would love it to be us!
I do not think it is ideal - and love to get to top 4 - but NEVER concede! EVER!

No it is not

[Teflon]

Good post 07 ..the other factor that needs to be considered in any "choice" or direction we take is the draw IMO.

We have a fairly nice run home at the Dome..(lets hope that doesnt bite us on the hamstring later on..) but we play well there...

5/6 at the break and youd still want to have a crack for mine.

[Oh When the Saints]

Well, we took the first fork ... and it failed.

We finished 9th ... an awful place to finish.


Fraser, Thommo and Doc are gone ...


I made the OP when we were 4-5 ... we finished 11-1-10.


Always easy with hindsight, but the second fork may have been the right turn ... a turn we have been forced to take now.

[Sainternist]

Certainly better to choose the "fork in the road", rather than to "ease the squeeze"