Leak draft plans

[B.M]

And let Cal Twomey run with it!!!

Obviously I reckon we need mids!!!! And two of them!

Leak that we are looking at Harry Armstrong and Alix Tauru with our picks

See if North and Melbourne s*** the bed and take them before us, leaving us with two mids at 8-9 (Ashcroft will push us down)

Melbourne think Armstrong will get to 10 leak that if he’s available at 8-9 we will probably take him to partner King

Also force North to select Tauru by leaking we are definitely taking him!

Leaving us with a choice of mids
Smillie or Langford or Reid or Draper or whoever falls

[St Dave]

I think by now most clubs have a good idea who the other clubs are looking at, so I don't know how much we could bait them like this. Every club knows we are taking at least one mid.

I think North probably trade down with Richmond anyway and take Tauru at 6. So that would leave us the last two mids.

I wonder, if everyone above is takes a mid and we get the last of that top tier of mids, maybe that is the trigger for us to trade our second pick down for picks in the teens?

[Banger9798]

FOS
Lalor
Smith
Draper

Almost certainly gone before our pick

If Tauru is taken by Norf (at pick 2 or 6)

We have the possibility of Smilie or Reid

Love to get them both , but would depend on Melbourne taking Armstrong, and I reckon they will take Smilie.


Leaves us Reid with pick 7.

If North take a midfielder, we miss out on that top flight mid altogether.
Probably take Bo Allan and Taj Hotton or trade back?

[B.M]

Clubs have no idea who we are taking

No one even knows who is going number 1

Richmond likely to take Lalor but don’t be at all surprised if O’Sullivan is taken.

Jagga Smith is a hard one to place


My prediction

1-Lalor - Rich
2-Ashcroft - Bris (bid)
3-Finn O’Sullivan - Rich (live trade with North)
4-Sid Draper/Jagga Smith - Carlton
5-Jagga Smith/ - Adel
6-Harvey Langford/Josh Smillie / Melb
7-Alix Tauru - North (Live Trade)
8- Josh Smillie/Harvey Langford - StK
9-Murphy Reid - StK
10-Harry Armstrong - Melb


Following that in no particular order
Travaglia, Allen, Lindsay, Berry, Kako, Lombard, Shanahan, Hotton, Whitlock, Hynes.

[SAINT-LEE]

My prediction for St Kilda picks:

8: Langford
9: Trade GWS
15: Murphy Reid
16: Luke Trainor
32: KPP Def
47: Best available Mid
47: Best Available Tall

[diddley]

My prediction for St Kilda picks:

8: Langford
9: Trade GWS
15: Murphy Reid
16: Luke Trainor
32: KPP Def
47: Best available Mid
47: Best Available Tall

I would be happy with Reid at 9, if we can get him plus Trainor for the same price, that would be a steal

[St Dave]

Clubs have no idea who we are taking

No one even knows who is going number 1

Richmond likely to take Lalor but don’t be at all surprised if O’Sullivan is taken.

Jagga Smith is a hard one to place

If clubs aren't paying attention to what opponents are potentially doing they are leaving opportunities on the table. Every club will have a mock draft board where they plot out what players will be picked where, if only so they don't waste time scouting/interviewing players they are never going to get a look at.

This is a unique draft because it is so even at the top, but still there is a pretty clear number 1 if we didn't have the F/S rule. Every other top player will have a range, eg no-one thinks Lalor is slipping to our picks.

The reason you think clubs could be fooled into thinking we might go for 2 non-mids is the exact reason everyone actually knows that we are going to take at least one. Because everyone in the industry talks (for their own reason) so as a club you have to listen and sort through what is real/BS.

Our critical need as a club is mids. Everyone in the footy world knows this, especially the people whose job it is to pay attention (eg other club recruiters). They will know which clubs have watched which players more than a couple of times, they will know who has done interviews with what clubs.

All of that is why there are live pick trades, let's say that it comes to our first pick and there is only one top mid on the table and there is another player who has slid (maybe Armstrong) that we don't care about but maybe Melbourne, Richmond and GWS are keen on. You can guarantee we will be taking calls from Richmond and GWS to see what they would offer for our second pick because they know we aren't keen and they have a chance to get in front of Melbourne who they know will take him.

[B.M]

3rd rule of drafting

Don’t outsmart yourselves by trying to predict what other teams do. We have made that mistake in the past!

Clubs might have an idea but until the pick is called out

Murphy Reid will NOT be there at pick 15

Is even a chance at pick 6 to Melbourne

Likely to be taken by us

Definitely gone at pick 11 Richmond

[St Dave]

3rd rule of drafting

Don’t outsmart yourselves by trying to predict what other teams do. We have made that mistake in the past!

Clubs might have an idea but until the pick is called out

Murphy Reid will NOT be there at pick 15

Is even a chance at pick 6 to Melbourne

Likely to be taken by us

Definitely gone at pick 11 Richmond

Lol, don't know what you are talking about '3rd rule of drafting' like you wrote the book. But appreciate you otherwise agreeing.

[CURLY]

Clubs have no idea who we are taking

No one even knows who is going number 1

Richmond likely to take Lalor but don’t be at all surprised if O’Sullivan is taken.

Jagga Smith is a hard one to place


My prediction

1-Lalor - Rich
2-Ashcroft - Bris (bid)
3-Finn O’Sullivan - Rich (live trade with North)
4-Sid Draper/Jagga Smith - Carlton
5-Jagga Smith/ - Adel
6-Harvey Langford/Josh Smillie / Melb
7-Alix Tauru - North (Live Trade)
8- Josh Smillie/Harvey Langford - StK
9-Murphy Reid - StK
10-Harry Armstrong - Melb


Following that in no particular order
Travaglia, Allen, Lindsay, Berry, Kako, Lombard, Shanahan, Hotton, Whitlock, Hynes.

Don’t think that’s true.

[B.M]

Thought the rules were pretty obvious to everyone

Well except StK who has broken them and paid for it

1st rule
Never trade out a first round pick
(Unless it’s for a A Grade u23yo or for another years first round pick) Never mortgage the future for the present!!!

2nd rule
Never draft for type in the first or second round. Draft the best player available! You are drafting for 12 years plus, lists can change massively in 4-12 years when a draftee becomes prime. You are not drafting for the now, it’s the error in most mock drafts, draft experts look at the current lists needs?! Should never come into it. Also footy styles change!
That’s how you end up with McCartin over Petracca!

[Saints58]

My prediction for St Kilda picks:

8: Langford
9: Trade GWS
15: Murphy Reid
16: Luke Trainor
32: KPP Def
47: Best available Mid
47: Best Available Tall

What about our Academy boys in Cole a KPD and Hoffman a medium defender and there is also father son Elwood Pickett a big body mid
When do we pick up these guys?
We might need late picks to match bids on these guys.

[St Dave]

Thought the rules were pretty obvious to everyone

Well except StK who has broken them and paid for it

1st rule
Never trade out a first round pick
(Unless it’s for a A Grade u23yo or for another years first round pick) Never mortgage the future for the present!!!

2nd rule
Never draft for type in the first or second round. Draft the best player available! You are drafting for 12 years plus, lists can change massively in 4-12 years when a draftee becomes prime. You are not drafting for the now, it’s the error in most mock drafts, draft experts look at the current lists needs?! Should never come into it. Also footy styles change!
That’s how you end up with McCartin over Petracca!

Maybe you should write the book BM (self publishing via Amazon is pretty cheap these days apparently). The rules should be obvious to everyone but rule one immediately has an exception and rule two you expect Melbourne and North to break in your OP. The AFL world clearly needs this info urgently.

As an aside, I love the circular nature of rule two. You draft the best mid every year, but because you end up with a team full of midfielders that makes you so unbalanced you lose all the time, but then you get pick one and the best mid every year.

[SaintPav]

Clubs rank players from best to worst so it only makes sense that they would choose the best available player when their turn comes to make their pick.

Still, no more half back flankers or wheezing key forwards please.

[B.M]

Yes

The hope is Melbourne and North are stupid

That’s the point, some teams do dumb things

[SAINT-LEE]

My prediction for St Kilda picks:

8: Langford
9: Trade GWS
15: Murphy Reid
16: Luke Trainor
32: KPP Def
47: Best available Mid
47: Best Available Tall

What about our Academy boys in Cole a KPD and Hoffman a medium defender and there is also father son Elwood Pickett a big body mid
When do we pick up these guys?
We might need late picks to match bids on these guys.

Maybe 32 & 47 but not sure any of those 3 will get selected. What Ive read most recruiters see them all with potential but dont rate the risk.

I think if we can grab Cole he could be a go

[St Dave]

Yes

The hope is Melbourne and North are stupid

That’s the point, some teams do dumb things

All the more reason to get these rules down in a book BM.

It will be a revolution for the AFL and probably in the US also where teams regularly trade back to around where the player they need is expected to be drafted. They don't know to just take the best bloke regardless those poor fools.

[ausfatcat]

My prediction for St Kilda picks:

8: Langford
9: Trade GWS
15: Murphy Reid
16: Luke Trainor
32: KPP Def
47: Best available Mid
47: Best Available Tall

Have I missed something how do we get pick 15 and 16?

[B.M]

As I said

These are pretty much common sense

No need to write a book


Do you disagree with them??

[diddley]

My prediction for St Kilda picks:

8: Langford
9: Trade GWS
15: Murphy Reid
16: Luke Trainor
32: KPP Def
47: Best available Mid
47: Best Available Tall

Have I missed something how do we get pick 15 and 16?

It’s with the assumption that our second pick is traded with gws for their picks 15&16.
A common theory going around that if we don’t have who we want available at our second pick, we will slide back and double up.

[St Dave]

As I said

These are pretty much common sense

No need to write a book


Do you disagree with them??

You know what they say about 'common sense' and it not being very common.

Given the AFL industry and the wider world of drafting sports aren't following your rules a book would go gangsters. Or maybe a pamphlet if you don't have enough rules for a book.

What I think isn't really important because I don't have any power to do anything about it (and I don't have a potentially revolutionary book in my head), but personally I think I stand closer to the general sporting world thinking that drafting and trading is too complex to have any fixed rules, only what is best for your team in any particular moment.

[B.M]

Drafting

Is about the future- not the moment

Therefore should never be compromised by short term thinking. I think coaches should have little or no input into players drafted.

Trading on the other hand is completely different

But drafting is critical, even when you’re contending you still need to bring in young talent - or you will fall off a cliff - as we did in 2012

[magnifisaint]

F***, St Kilda cleared their recruiting trash a few years ago. Has anyone seen Elshaugh and Pelchen lately?

[SAINT-LEE]

My prediction for St Kilda picks:

8: Langford
9: Trade GWS
15: Murphy Reid
16: Luke Trainor
32: KPP Def
47: Best available Mid
47: Best Available Tall

Have I missed something how do we get pick 15 and 16?

Trade on the night. Its a scenario not sure we do it, depends on who is available at 9.

[B.M]

Were you on here in 2012

Most were eating out of Pelchen’s hand and thought his little spreadsheet was a Blueprint to glory!!!

It was like the Simpsons Monorail on here!!!

Getting rid of BJ, McEvoy and Dal was a master stroke. Genius stuff!!!