Hit this draft hard

[B.M]

Get in more picks inside 30

How
Live trade

I don’t want to give up multiple picks to move up the draft board

Instead I want to get multiple picks for one of our first rounders

I want 7, 15, 16, 20, 47

They will all get push out a bit, but the reality is that we don’t have access to Ashcroft, Lombard, Kako, Marshall anyway

So those picks are moot.

Sliding down is not so scary. There is absolutely no reason why pick 15 won’t be as good as pick 9 and pick 16 as a bonus.

For instance, Wilson was pick 18 last year. He would be a top 5 selection if draft was redone
2023 Phillipou was pick 10, he’d be top 5 also if redone.

I would also trade next years first for pick 20

Hit this draft -hard - with multiple selections inside 30

Rebuild with
Nasiah, Owens, Windhager, Phillipou, Keeler, Wilson, Collard, Hastie, Garcia, Schoenmaker, and 5 picks from this draft

[Nick DalSanto Claus]

Our F1 should most definitely be on the table, but an itk has told me it didn't arouse a lot of enthusiasm in trade period. Still, come the night of the draft and the names begin to fall, that will change.

So, if we can turn 7, 8 & F1st into 7, 8, 15 & 16, or similar that would be an outstanding result, giving us 4 stabs at it while there's plenty of quality on offer.

FWIW, being realistic, I'd love us to snare Smillie, Allan, Tauru, Hynes and one of Gerreyn or Dodson with a later pick. That would fill a few list holes for now and the future and give us the best 23 and under list in the comp. 2003-11, here we come!

[Killa]

To quote “past performance is no guarantee for future performance”

The way to access the most credentialed players available is to have access to the highest draft picks and in St Kilda’s case in 2024, picks 7 and 8

How long will it be before we again have 2 picks in the top 10?

So don’t squander them

These days the research is comprehensive, improving the chances that top 10 picks will be competition leading players

So use them

What is promoted here by some is, quite frankly, being seduced by the AFL publicity machine and detrimental to the future performances of the St Kilda FC

The AFL looks for headlines, not outcomes resultant from the diligent efforts of Club recruiters

Noting the contributions on this site by some, lamenting this and lamenting that in terms of recruiting imagine if we forego a top 10 pick for lower picks and the top 10 pick we had turns out to be a competition leading player whilst the lower picks do not perform to that level?

Because that is the risk trading a top 10 pick for multiple lower picks

And, in terms of our List, we have Clark, King, Wanganeen-Milera, Phillipou and Wilson - then Owens and Windhager and the recruited Henry plus others who, to date, have been given a taste only which includes the likes of Caminiti and Byrnes who are more established at the level then the likes of Sharman from the mid season draft

Guided by the likes of Marshall, Sinclair, Wilkie, Hill, Steele, Higgins, Howard and now Macrae

Why do you think we have moved on the likes of Ross and Membrey, stalwarts over the years?

Adding 2 top 10 picks is exactly what we need to further build the foundations and performance ahead of attracting Free Agents seen as required for structure and performance

[B.M]

Don’t want Tauru

Not a mid
Not a KPP

He’s 3rd tall

You don’t pay a premium for a 3rd tall - he’s also a bolter

Some bolters work out - most do not!

He is a favourite of Cal Twomey - who likes to think he’s somehow a draft shaper and has influence over who recruiters take.

[BackFromUSA]

Agree

[Nick DalSanto Claus]

Don’t want Tauru

Not a mid
Not a KPP

He’s 3rd tall

You don’t pay a premium for a 3rd tall - he’s also a bolter

Some bolters work out - most do not!

He is a favourite of Cal Twomey - who likes to think he’s somehow a draft shaper and has influence over who recruiters take.

Yeah, You're right of course. He's had too many comparisons to Nick Riewoldt, I reckon. Same height and size. Incredibly athletic. Strong overhead as well.

BTW, he's far from just a third tall. Genuine swingman. He can play forward, back and has even run through the midfield. But no, doesn't seem to fit our needs.

Anyway, he'll probably be gone by our first pick as particularly Norf, Richmond and Melbourne are said to be keen. Quick, DK, ring those clubs and tell them he's not worth an early pick. He might slide to us if they take your advice.

[ace]

To quote “past performance is no guarantee for future performance”

The important word being "guarantee"
But past performance is the BEST readily available indicator of future performance.

When was the last time an employer said don't send us your CV we are not interested in your previous employment history.
Wise investors realise there are no guarantees but they do like to load the dice heavily in their favour by studying company history and looking for stability in earnings growth.

[B.M]

Swingman

The most ridiculous term in footy

[Killa]

I am happily long since retired from analysis of Financial Statements and forward projections along with access to Board Rooms for explanations as and when - and a skill set I would put is not a universal skill set (not even in the banking industry!!) before you get to access for questioning (so not restricted to attending an AGM).

I now defer to major global Fund Managers.

I accept their credentials and that their profiles give access to Board Rooms as and when.

The caution "past performance is no guarantee of future performance" appends to their presentations.

We have had the First Global Oil Crisis and inflation, the "Savings & Loans" decade (actually from the late 1970's until the early 1990's) and sub-prime lending (GFC) roiling financial markets.

Before you get to a Pandemic.

And Company failures, which are a constant (particularly among SME's where the failure percentage is high).

Then there is inflation at above Central Banker guidelines, impacting Bond Yields, Bond Yields which are again on the rise globally for the reasons they are.

All this before you get to the range of risk weighted product, from Cash to Alternatives offered by Fund Managers, noting the protections of diversification.

Back to mowing the lawns hey?

And putting how St Kilda should approach the Draft (a List build exercise which is perpetual) and who they should draft and why on this site.

Noting St Kilda FC employ people for that purpose.

[Killa]

And in regard to ever changing landscapes and risk, you are a supplier to Myer, your fashion labels enjoying front of store promotion (complimenting your access to leased store areas you may or may not staff).

And along comes Solly, no doubt demanding front of store promotion, you relegated to the back pocket.

[St Dave]

Don’t want Tauru

Not a mid
Not a KPP

He’s 3rd tall

You don’t pay a premium for a 3rd tall - he’s also a bolter

Some bolters work out - most do not!

He is a favourite of Cal Twomey - who likes to think he’s somehow a draft shaper and has influence over who recruiters take.

Interesting to see Cal cop a drive by. He seems pretty knowledgeable to me. Excluding some on the night trades (which he noted were possible) he pretty much nailed the first 20 picks of last year's draft a week out.

I guess if you misunderstand the point of a phantom draft, you might think he is trying to shape the draft I guess. In reality he talks to recruiters and clubs and makes educated guesses based on what those clubs need. Just like similar journalists at fox footy and ESPN and others.

Personally I would be happy if we got more picks this year, but it makes sense what NDSC said that clubs aren't really interested in trading out of this draft, given how strong it is supposed to be. I still think our best chance might be to split 8 in to GWSs first two or maybe Richmonds 11 and 18 (not that I know why they would want to do that).

[Nick DalSanto Claus]

Swingman

The most ridiculous term in footy

Spoken like a self-proclaimed "Expert" still stuck in the 80s!

[StPeter]

All this talk about the importance of high draft picks and arguably the 3 top players at the club,

Sinclair, Marshall and Wilkie, were all recruited as rookies.

[diddley]

All this talk about the importance of high draft picks and arguably the 3 top players at the club,

Sinclair, Marshall and Wilkie, were all recruited as rookies.

That is likely the issue.
If we had some high rated stars from the draft picks from the past decade, those 3 players would be added to a team of players that would be doing better than we have been.

[SaintPav]

I am happily long since retired from analysis of Financial Statements and forward projections along with access to Board Rooms for explanations as and when - and a skill set I would put is not a universal skill set (not even in the banking industry!!) before you get to access for questioning (so not restricted to attending an AGM).

I now defer to major global Fund Managers.

I accept their credentials and that their profiles give access to Board Rooms as and when.

The caution "past performance is no guarantee of future performance" appends to their presentations.

We have had the First Global Oil Crisis and inflation, the "Savings & Loans" decade (actually from the late 1970's until the early 1990's) and sub-prime lending (GFC) roiling financial markets.

Before you get to a Pandemic.

And Company failures, which are a constant (particularly among SME's where the failure percentage is high).

Then there is inflation at above Central Banker guidelines, impacting Bond Yields, Bond Yields which are again on the rise globally for the reasons they are.

All this before you get to the range of risk weighted product, from Cash to Alternatives offered by Fund Managers, noting the protections of diversification.

Back to mowing the lawns hey?

And putting how St Kilda should approach the Draft (a List build exercise which is perpetual) and who they should draft and why on this site.

Noting St Kilda FC employ people for that purpose.

Lol.

Priceless backward looking financial analysis.

The 60 40 portfolio is dead.

The stock market is ignoring spiking bond yields which is screaming big recession. Concerning.

The masses keep getting duped ad nauseam because the policies of all parties are inflationary. Trump’s proposed tarrifs are inflationary and so are Harris’ idiotic social engineering policies. It’s the same situation locally.

Q: Alternatives like gold, silver and bitcoin are at all time record levels. What allocation do fund managers have in their portfolio allocation to these ‘alternatives’?

A: Zero

The only alternatives in a debt based fiat financial system when SHTF are hard bearer assets.

Happy to help.

[Yorkeys]

Speaking of commodities, I think young Caminiti is a diamond in the rough, being cut and polished as we speak.
Great potential, buy before commentators wake up.

[SuperDuper]

yes, hitting this draft hard would be good... the problem is that many clubs are trying to trade into this years first round, and even into the second round, using future picks

The trump we have (excuse the language) is pick 8. Once everyone knows who is available at pick 8, I think there will be a lot of offers... probably a lot of the options will be organised before the night.. so GWS may be willing to trade 15.16 on the condition a certain player is there at 8.. or Richmond may want to get ahead of Melbourne... hopefully there is a lot being thrown at us for pick 8 and we can then decide if we want to turn it into 2 later picks

We could get a lot of Future currency for either of our picks, e.g, I am pretty sure North would do 2+F1 for 7,8 which would give us pick 2 this year and presumably a top 5 pick next year... which really is a pretty bloody good deal... but it seems we want picks this year, as do many other clubs

[saintsRrising]

As others have noted many, if not all clubs, would like more picks in the Top 20. So for us to get more is unlikely to be down in a value way. When everyone would like to buy, prices are overpriced.

Gifting out F1 for too late a pick is not a value move. It could be if clubs with an earlier pick were willing to trade, but they too either want earlier, or more picks.

Picks 7, 8 have hamstrung us a bit. Too valuable to use in the earlier trade period.

In the live trade period the Tigers are sitting pretty, and can afford to out bid us.

We did well in the last trade period to swap our pick to effectively gain Macrea for free or close to it (once you factor in how later picks will slide forward), but in live trades I think the Saints will be alter for trades, but are probably only going to pick up a minor advantage. Though that worked well for us to get Wilson and a bonus.

[Banger9798]

Good call on Caminiti, Yorkeys, what a bonus he has been. Will be a really good player as he develops.

Pick 7 and F1 for North's p2 is being mooted
Pick 8 split for GWS 15, 16

I think I'd prefer to retain 7 & 8 and get a teens Pick for our F1. Surely Richmond would be interested.

[Otiman]

My understanding on the draft is that the top 8 picks are all midfielders.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/draft/ ... ce440315a6

Depending if there's 1 or 2 of the players we've earmarked for selection available at pick 7, we will either take both picks, or split pick 8 out.

[B.M]

Best possible result

Richmond trade up to get pick 2 (6 + 11)

1-Rich - Sam Lalor
2-Bris - Levi Ashcroft (bid)
3-Rich - (trade with Nth) - Finn O’Sullivan
4-Carl - Jagga Smith
5-Adel - Sid Draper
6-Melb - Murphy Reid
7-North - Alix Tauru
8-Stk - Harvey Langford
9-Stk - Josh Smillie


Pick 20 - (trade 2021 first round) - Cooper Hynes

Pick 32 - Christian Moraes

[Brunswicksainter]

Best possible result

Richmond trade up to get pick 2 (6 + 11)

1-Rich - Sam Lalor
2-Bris - Levi Ashcroft (bid)
3-Rich - (trade with Nth) - Finn O’Sullivan
4-Carl - Jagga Smith
5-Adel - Sid Draper
6-Melb - Murphy Reid
7-North - Alix Tauru
8-Stk - Harvey Langford
9-Stk - Josh Smillie


Pick 20 - (trade 2021 first round) - Cooper Hynes

Pick 32 - Christian Moraes

I like this result, but I think it’s more likely Langford gets picked earlier and we trade pick 9.

[Otiman]

Best possible result

Richmond trade up to get pick 2 (6 + 11)

1-Rich - Sam Lalor
2-Bris - Levi Ashcroft (bid)
3-Rich - (trade with Nth) - Finn O’Sullivan
4-Carl - Jagga Smith
5-Adel - Sid Draper
6-Melb - Murphy Reid
7-North - Alix Tauru
8-Stk - Harvey Langford
9-Stk - Josh Smillie


Pick 20 - (trade 2021 first round) - Cooper Hynes

Pick 32 - Christian Moraes

I think we'd have a solid think about Tauru if available for our picks.

[B.M]

I’m hoping Tauru gets taken before out pick

[Otiman]

We will see. I think he'll be a player, and a KP Defender is high on our needs list in the medium term.