Robbo: No-man’s land Saints can’t afford to fluff picks 7 and 8 again

[SAINT-LEE]

Just out of curiosity, which club can afford to stuff up two top 10 picks in a draft? Maybe if you already have father/sons, academy stars lined up but that's the most ridiculous article I've read from Robbo for awhile. It's like saying, 'if the swans make a GF in the near future, they'd want to be competitive.'

Of course we don't want to stuff it up. I'm very comfortable with our recruiting/coaching/development team these days and am looking fwd to what we come up with.

C'mon man, you know Robbo is an Ausdie legend. If he says something its gold.

Every team in the AFL except St Kilda can afford to stuff up 2 top 10 draft picks.

I'm getting this an entire article painted on my house so everyone who drives by can soak in the wisdom that is Robbo.

[samuraisaint]

It's fair to say that recruitment staff at St Kilda made some monumentaly poor decisions in drafts in the past (taking David Armitage at 9 ahead of Jack Riewoldt 13 in 2006) was my all-time howler.

But Robbo failed to acknowledge that in recent years they picked some really good ones, most recently Darcy Wilson at 18 last year who went on to play every game and effectively finished 2nd best first year player (after Harley Reid), based on the Rising Star Award.

I recall reading something recently about the club being concerned that Nick and Jack were excessively competitive with each other and were worried this would be disruptive. You'd think they could've found a way to work this through.

Fu*k me that breaks my heart if true. Roo was a superstar and the only time when we looked unbeatable was when he was teamed with G-Train or when Kosi was fit and firing in first half of 09. Two superstar key fwds is almost impossible to combat. Especially if your midfield has the likes of Lenny, Dal, Joey and BJ. I almost wished I hadn't read that.

Probably our best H&A seasons since the club's golden era of 1965-73, were seasons 2004-6, which is when we had all of the above players you mentioned, plus Harvey, Hamill and guys like Aussie Jones, Heath Black and Luke Penny. That was an awesome team.

[ausfatcat]

Just out of curiosity, which club can afford to stuff up two top 10 picks in a draft? Maybe if you already have father/sons, academy stars lined up but that's the most ridiculous article I've read from Robbo for awhile. It's like saying, 'if the swans make a GF in the near future, they'd want to be competitive.'

Of course we don't want to stuff it up. I'm very comfortable with our recruiting/coaching/development team these days and am looking fwd to what we come up with.

C'mon man, you know Robbo is an Ausdie legend. If he says something its gold.

Every team in the AFL except St Kilda can afford to stuff up 2 top 10 draft picks.

I'm getting this an entire article painted on my house so everyone who drives by can soak in the wisdom that is Robbo.

how about 3 top 11 duds (well 2 and a half)

1 Tom Scully
2 Jack Trengove
11 Jordan Gysberts

or
2 Harley Bennell
10 Daniel Gorringe

or
5 MAtt Buntine
10 Liam Sumner

or
2 Jonathan O'Rourke
4 Lachie Plowman

or
6 Caleb Marchbank
7 Paul Ahern

or
9 Will Brodie
10 Jack Bowes

Plenty of clubs have stuffed up two top ten picks in the same year

[bobmurray]

Just out of curiosity, which club can afford to stuff up two top 10 picks in a draft? Maybe if you already have father/sons, academy stars lined up but that's the most ridiculous article I've read from Robbo for awhile. It's like saying, 'if the swans make a GF in the near future, they'd want to be competitive.'

Of course we don't want to stuff it up. I'm very comfortable with our recruiting/coaching/development team these days and am looking fwd to what we come up with.

C'mon man, you know Robbo is an Ausdie legend. If he says something its gold.

Every team in the AFL except St Kilda can afford to stuff up 2 top 10 draft picks.

I'm getting this an entire article painted on my house so everyone who drives by can soak in the wisdom that is Robbo.

how about 3 top 11 duds (well 2 and a half)

1 Tom Scully
2 Jack Trengove
11 Jordan Gysberts

or
2 Harley Bennell
10 Daniel Gorringe

or
5 MAtt Buntine
10 Liam Sumner

or
2 Jonathan O'Rourke
4 Lachie Plowman

or
6 Caleb Marchbank
7 Paul Ahern

or
9 Will Brodie
10 Jack Bowes

Plenty of clubs have stuffed up two top ten picks in the same year

Yep the draft is a raffle, that's why i'm geting ready to P155 myself when Richmond goes gangbusters on this years draft and finds out it doesn't work, just like Gold Coast and GWS learnt.

[St Dave]

Just out of curiosity, which club can afford to stuff up two top 10 picks in a draft? Maybe if you already have father/sons, academy stars lined up but that's the most ridiculous article I've read from Robbo for awhile. It's like saying, 'if the swans make a GF in the near future, they'd want to be competitive.'

Of course we don't want to stuff it up. I'm very comfortable with our recruiting/coaching/development team these days and am looking fwd to what we come up with.

C'mon man, you know Robbo is an Ausdie legend. If he says something its gold.

Every team in the AFL except St Kilda can afford to stuff up 2 top 10 draft picks.

I'm getting this an entire article painted on my house so everyone who drives by can soak in the wisdom that is Robbo.

how about 3 top 11 duds (well 2 and a half)

1 Tom Scully
2 Jack Trengove
11 Jordan Gysberts

or
2 Harley Bennell
10 Daniel Gorringe

or
5 MAtt Buntine
10 Liam Sumner

or
2 Jonathan O'Rourke
4 Lachie Plowman

or
6 Caleb Marchbank
7 Paul Ahern

or
9 Will Brodie
10 Jack Bowes

Plenty of clubs have stuffed up two top ten picks in the same year

Yep the draft is a raffle, that's why i'm geting ready to P155 myself when Richmond goes gangbusters on this years draft and finds out it doesn't work, just like Gold Coast and GWS learnt.

Not sure where the stat comes from (I think it was one of the top AFL scouts on a podcast) but apparently on average from the top end (maybe top 10) of the draft you can expect 50% will be guns 25% will be good players (150+ games) and 25% will be misses.

Even if Richmond have a couple of misses, 8 picks in the top 24 of a strong draft give them enough shots that they have to find a few guns there. Will be interesting to see how the strategy pays off, especially getting in before Tassie come in

[Brunswicksainter]

Just out of curiosity, which club can afford to stuff up two top 10 picks in a draft? Maybe if you already have father/sons, academy stars lined up but that's the most ridiculous article I've read from Robbo for awhile. It's like saying, 'if the swans make a GF in the near future, they'd want to be competitive.'

Of course we don't want to stuff it up. I'm very comfortable with our recruiting/coaching/development team these days and am looking fwd to what we come up with.

C'mon man, you know Robbo is an Ausdie legend. If he says something its gold.

Every team in the AFL except St Kilda can afford to stuff up 2 top 10 draft picks.

I'm getting this an entire article painted on my house so everyone who drives by can soak in the wisdom that is Robbo.

how about 3 top 11 duds (well 2 and a half)

1 Tom Scully
2 Jack Trengove
11 Jordan Gysberts

or
2 Harley Bennell
10 Daniel Gorringe

or
5 MAtt Buntine
10 Liam Sumner

or
2 Jonathan O'Rourke
4 Lachie Plowman

or
6 Caleb Marchbank
7 Paul Ahern

or
9 Will Brodie
10 Jack Bowes

Plenty of clubs have stuffed up two top ten picks in the same year

Yep the draft is a raffle, that's why i'm geting ready to P155 myself when Richmond goes gangbusters on this years draft and finds out it doesn't work, just like Gold Coast and GWS learnt.

Not sure where the stat comes from (I think it was one of the top AFL scouts on a podcast) but apparently on average from the top end (maybe top 10) of the draft you can expect 50% will be guns 25% will be good players (150+ games) and 25% will be misses.

Even if Richmond have a couple of misses, 8 picks in the top 24 of a strong draft give them enough shots that they have to find a few guns there. Will be interesting to see how the strategy pays off, especially getting in before Tassie come in

That stat sounds like complete nonsense to me. Chances of finding a gun (AA/ 200+ game player etc) in top 10 would be much closer to 20-30% with a quite a few drafts in the 2000’s barely having 1 “gun” in the top 10. This year seems to be different though.

My money is this strategy fails spectacularly, no premiership team in modern AFL history (besides Geelong and maybe west coast 06?) has built a premiership list through a bottom-out draft first strategy. FA and trade has always been the way to go.

[St Dave]

Not sure where the stat comes from (I think it was one of the top AFL scouts on a podcast) but apparently on average from the top end (maybe top 10) of the draft you can expect 50% will be guns 25% will be good players (150+ games) and 25% will be misses.

Even if Richmond have a couple of misses, 8 picks in the top 24 of a strong draft give them enough shots that they have to find a few guns there. Will be interesting to see how the strategy pays off, especially getting in before Tassie come in

That stat sounds like complete nonsense to me. Chances of finding a gun (AA/ 200+ game player etc) in top 10 would be much closer to 20-30% with a quite a few drafts in the 2000’s barely having 1 “gun” in the top 10. This year seems to be different though.

My money is this strategy fails spectacularly, no premiership team in modern AFL history (besides Geelong and maybe west coast 06?) has built a premiership list through a bottom-out draft first strategy. FA and trade has always been the way to go.

Yeah I will have to find the exact stat and who said it because I am misremembering the exact details.

Just a quick check of here (https://www.draftguru.com.au/years) shows the early 2000s had 5-6 of the first 16 picks being 200+ game players, so about 30%. But then I expect that would improve as scouting/drafting techniques get more sophisticated (eg for the 2018 draft, 11 first round drafted players have already played 90 or more games, and in the 2019 draft 9 first round drafted players have played 80 or more games).

Only time will tell I guess.

[SAINT-LEE]

Robbo: Saints can't afford to fluff picks 7 & 8

RTB: Are you reading this? I literally just said, Fück this draft Im fluffing pick 7 & 8. But now, but now its all changed.

[SaintPav]

A brilliant insight.

Fox’s loss.

[Scollop]

A brilliant insight.

Fox’s loss.

Yes. He’ll be missed. He asks the hard questions…

E.g. Flemington or Randwick - which is better?