If the close ones had gone our way.

[Nick DalSanto Claus]

I just watched an interesting clip by True Footy titled, "The 2024 AFL Ladder if every close result was REVERSED. You can watch it on YouTube.

The revised ladder provided many interesting points, especially in predicting how teams may rise or fall, with only the slightest of adjustments.
There are some surprising results. The exercise reversed the result of every game decided by 6 points or fewer (Spoiler alerts follow).

First come the saints. If all the close ones had gone our way we would've finished 9th with a percentage of 100.1. Talk about being the average team! The mean for number of wins was 11.33. The median number was 12 and the mode was 13.5. Yes, we are "The AVERAGE team!"


We were as high as 6the before the Carlscum and Swines results were reversed.

We really set ourselves back in the first half of the season, when most of our close losses took place. When you consider our injury list and horrendous draw at the time, it makes you wonder what we might have achieved with just an ounce of luck for once.

As for the others, the Swine's still finished on top with Freo coming second! The WB third, Hawthorn 4th, the pussies 5th, brions 6th, Carlscum 7th and the Power 8th.

The biggest drop was the Giants, from 4th to 13th. Port also dropped a bit, from 2nd to 8th. We missed the finals on percentage.

Our old mates the Dopers dropped to 14th, with Collingwood 15th. The bottom three remained the same.

So maybe we are on the right track. We may be closer than we think. With improvements on the injury front, some more home games early and fewer trips interstate and 5 day breaks, I reckon we could rise significantly, in 2025.

In closing, the one satisfaction was that we beat the bummers,
Carlscum, Collingwood, the tiggies and Geelong all in the one year. It would be a long time since we pulled off that parlay, or acca. Thoughts ?

[St Dave]

Will have to check this out.

Talking about close margins, over in the Max King contract thread I did some quick simulation if Max had kicked an extra goal in the games he played this year:

Just as a hypothetical, I added an extra goal to all games Max played in 2024 (to simulate his 2023 goal output, noting he was still very impacted by injury in that year)... interestingly it actually flips 3 games, GWS in round 6, Hawks in round 10, and Port in round 17 which could have seen us finish on 14 wins and likely 7th on the ladder.