Luck

[Trixilver]

There's a lot of negative press floating around fans and the media about our list and coaching panel. Given our record, play style and skill errors, you'd be hard pressed to argue it isn't at least somewhat warranted. I've got a slightly different take on these opinions.

This season seems a bit off. Like, something isn't adding up the way I had seen in previous (bad) years. Yes, there's been errors in execution or judgment, yes there's been some absolutely dour games played, by both sides in our games. And yes we are sitting in the bottom 4 after round 16 with no chance in hell of playing finals. But, and I say this as a Saints fan having witnessed our last 30 years, have we not been a little unlucky this year? 6 games decided by 10 points or less. Is that unusual? No. There are lots of close games that can go either way. However it is interesting to think about how the landscape changes if you pinch those.

The high-stakes world of AFL football, the margin between victory and defeat is often razor-thin. If you can win a coin toss, the fans and media can call you a genius, but lose? Lose a few and you're every move is now questioned. I guess you could say the role of our coaching staff and players to get to a level where a coin toss doesn't matter, and while that's true, our game sense may need quite a bit of work, but let's be real. The only reason we're talking about these issues in the first place is the oval-shaped ball hasn't bounced our way more often than not. If it had, we could have been sitting at 11-4, comfortably in 3rd, and not having the slightest clue about the gaping holes in our list. I think it's remarkable that with all the skill errors and terrible decision making I've seen this year that we've been in almost every game. And it happens to lots of sides. It's partly the reason you see a team finishing 12th one year and winning the flag the next.

I don't know how long this will go on for, or what we need to do to turn it around. Every year there are teams that fluke it. And also teams that can't catch a break. But there are clearly good teams who win week in week out, and being lucky isn't even in their vocabulary. That's where we have to aim. Ross Lyon has coached those sides before, but it could also be said that his high-stakes games very much come down to the wire and his luck hasn't been great.

[Devilhead]

In recent years we have seen -

Collingwood go from 4th to 8th to 17th to 4th to 1st

Melbourne from 4th to 17th to 9th to 1st

Some others below

Years Team
98-99 Brisbane Lions (+13) - 16th to 3rd
97-98 Melbourne Demons (+12) - 16th to 4th
06-07 Geelong Cats (+11) - 10th to 1st
11-12 Adelaide Crows (+11) - 14th to 2nd
16-17 Richmond Tigers (+10) - 13th to 3rd
99-00 Melbourne Demons (+10) - 14th to 3rd
96-97 Western Bulldogs (+10) - 15th to 3rd
95-96 Sydney Swans (+10) - 12th to 1st

All of those close H&A & Finals games Collingwood have won in the few seasons .... lose half of those and they would be talked about in a different light

The league is as tight as it has ever been .... bit of luck here .... a bit of luck there ... a bit off here .... a bit off there ... small margins

Injuries & suspensions play a bit part of yearly fortunes as does fixturing

Bottom line for us though is that we really don't have the playing group to genuinely contend .... usually only 4 teams do ... maybe less

Thia year the Premiership is down to Sydney or Carlton ... maybe Collingwood & Brisbane have a chance if they can get their best 22 fit & healthy

[Beno88]

Good post.

In my opinion, we are well coached, well disciplined and well structured. We are hard to play against.

But, we have a B grade playing list.

It's worth noting that despite being 18-21 over the last two years, our percentage is 100.55%.

[MC Gusto]

As a club I fear we’re out of luck. Confidence is shot, players will leave, prez and coach under serious fire
Have seen this death spiral before, however this one feels different
No idea how we pull out of this one but the illusive cup couldn’t be further away

[SaintPav]

That’s a very pessimistic view. External perception and what’s actually going inside the club are obviously two very different things. Not saying we are in a great position but I don’t think it’s as diabolical as some are suggesting.