Cold Hard Facts

[samuraisaint]

I think we've got a core of great youngsters and the only reason we're struggling is because of the injuries to important players that we have had all season, and still do, and those players trying to regain touch.
We have also had four suspensions to key players, with one player still on the sidelines who would have been very handy on Saturday which has also had an impact.

[King Max]

A bit of a myth that our draw was easy at the start of last year ... in the first 7 games we played 3 teams that were in the Finals from 2022 and played 3 teams that ended up playing Finals alongside us in 2023 ... including the Premier

6 of first 7 games were against sides that finished in the Top 12 from 2022 ... only 1 was in thr bottom 6 and that was Essendon

All whilst playing with a significant injury list as pointed out by Saint-Lee above

I guess we were just lucky

Easy draw....easy games....same same but different.

For example we have already knocked off the Pies but we got them at a REALLY good time.

And gee I don't know about you but I'd fancy our chance against the Lions at the moment.

Ahhn the beauty of a sport like AFL....so many nuances.

Collingwood haven't lost a game since they played us. How did we get them at a really good time?

[Life Long Saint]

Got more chance of winning 1st division in the lotto than us making they 8 this season. Those are the facts.

We are well short on talent and way off the pace.

We over achieved last season.

It's about rebuilding over the next few years so buckle up.

That's not fact (not yet anyway) ... that's your opinion

Are Essendon overachieving this year? Cause they were very fkn shite last year

The fact is we have lost to 4 of the current top 6 sides by 10pts or under ....with a large injury and suspension list all the while not playing great football.

And what the fk is overachieving? I tell you what .... its the most cop out phrase in existence

The talent was there last year and all of a sudden .... its not

Did we "overachieve" because others underachieved?

Pretty sure we won games last year because we played good solid footy not because opposition teams played shite ... we deserved our Finals place

Agree with the overachieve cop out.
You can not over achieve.
You can only ever play to the best of your ability.

I'd look at it as we have under achieved this year based on last year.

[Killa]

Or have the opposition improved?

There is an opposition you know, don’t you?

I think the addition of Wilson and Henry has improved us from last season, both adding skills and pace

Before you get to any incremental improvement across the List

[WellardSaint]

Not sure why anyone is thinking this team can make finals.

The small losing margins flatter the squad and coaches.

They're like the hiker in the forest in the US that has several close calls with bears and manages to escape each time.
Makes him/her believe they have the abilities to survive out there.
He/she might climb a tree and sit on thin branches that can support *their* weight but the bear can't reach them, it's too heavy to get close.

We play Lions in late June and on Aug 4.
And Swans.
I mention these 2 as we know how stacked both their midfields are.
Forget how fractured the Lions are at the moment.
They'll smell blood when they meet us, and we're likely to let them smash us by 10+.

Swans will get a % boost too.

Those 2 teams are Grizzly Bears.
And we'll be the hiker that's had a long tiring day and is snoring deeply in the tent, content in the belief that they'll hear the bear approach.
A nearby tree is perfect for our escape- analogous to our back 6, ready to save our skins.

However the bear has other ideas

[Zed]

This is what i see when i watch us play.

Ball goes into forward line.
Tall forwards regularly drop marks despite getting their hands on the ball.
Ball hits the ground - we cant lock it in, ball goes back out of the forward line.
When our tall forwards do take a mark, they arent able to convert.
When we do lock it in ,we dont have those lightning small forwards to take advantage of the loose ball.

Which is why i thought many underestimated Gresham's loss. Yes his helicopter kicks weren't great when he was playing up the field, but he was good for 1 - 2 goals a game and was reasonably good at applying pressure to help lock the ball in.

Its why Collard still is a long way off in my opinion - he needs to apply more pressure and stick tackles. He may come good next year - he may not. Its why i think we should try and bring in an experienced small pressure forward. In fact, I will say we probably need to bring in 2 small pressure forwards until we know for sure where Collard is at. Remember Butlers first season with us ? Thats what we are looking for. Unfortunately Butler is now a shadow of that player, and not up to AFL standard. Higgins plays more like an undersized tall than a small forward. Recruiting a gun mid (or preferably 2) will help the ball get into the forward line, but ultimately its more of the same. Throwing talls around like Battle to CHF is just papering over the cracks.

Im not sure why i am the only one who sees it.

[Life Long Saint]

Or have the opposition improved?

There is an opposition you know, don’t you?

Possibly, but the opposition isn't responsible for unforced turnovers or missed set shots.
It also isn't responsible for our work rate reflected in the tackle count.

[samuraisaint]

Not sure why anyone is thinking this team can make finals.

The small losing margins flatter the squad and coaches.

They're like the hiker in the forest in the US that has several close calls with bears and manages to escape each time.
Makes him/her believe they have the abilities to survive out there.
He/she might climb a tree and sit on thin branches that can support *their* weight but the bear can't reach them, it's too heavy to get close.

We play Lions in late June and on Aug 4.
And Swans.
I mention these 2 as we know how stacked both their midfields are.
Forget how fractured the Lions are at the moment.
They'll smell blood when they meet us, and we're likely to let them smash us by 10+.

Swans will get a % boost too.

Those 2 teams are Grizzly Bears.
And we'll be the hiker that's had a long tiring day and is snoring deeply in the tent, content in the belief that they'll hear the bear approach.
A nearby tree is perfect for our escape- analogous to our back 6, ready to save our skins.

However the bear has other ideas

Yeah, but when we play them they will have outs too, and some of our players who are out at the moment, or are playing in the magoos trying to find touch and fitness will be back. And who knows, maybe miraculously we won't have any of our best players suspended and we will be a lot harder to beat.
I don't see how anybody can say our losses are flattering - they are what they are. We kicked the last six goals against GWS and they have never been the same since and every year except for when we played them in China Port only just beat us. They just find a way, and they did it again, but it's not flattering to us. It is the same every year. They beat us by a point or two goals and it doesn't matter where it is. And the Bombers beat us by an @rs3y goal. It is what it is. They won fair and square but the margin doesn't flatter us.

[SaintWiki]

I'd rather not make the 8 than stumble in and lose a final.

By god, I know we're nowhere near good enough to go all the way yet but surely it'll take years for our kids to build their skills, 'experience' and bodies and we fill the gaps with the A and B graders needed to beat the top teams, and I can't for the life of me see how the kids getting any type of finals 'experience' won't be of great advantage. The big clubs play in front of 80,000 plus regularly and our players really need this type of experience to be ripe. Besides every final we get is one more game ... well, it is for me.

[Vortex]

A bit of a myth that our draw was easy at the start of last year ... in the first 7 games we played 3 teams that were in the Finals from 2022 and played 3 teams that ended up playing Finals alongside us in 2023 ... including the Premier

6 of first 7 games were against sides that finished in the Top 12 from 2022 ... only 1 was in thr bottom 6 and that was Essendon

All whilst playing with a significant injury list as pointed out by Saint-Lee above

I guess we were just lucky

Easy draw....easy games....same same but different.

For example we have already knocked off the Pies but we got them at a REALLY good time.

And gee I don't know about you but I'd fancy our chance against the Lions at the moment.

Ahhn the beauty of a sport like AFL....so many nuances.

Collingwood haven't lost a game since they played us. How did we get them at a really good time?

All I can do is offer thinking music, the rest is up to you.

[King Max]

Maybe you could just explain it.

[Killa]

No side plays perfect football

The metric is making less unforced errors than your opposition

Look at the Adelaide player, probably one of the best kicks for goal across the competition

On the three quarter time siren he sprayed a set shot, virtually straight out from goal and just managed a point - to give the 1 point margin at three quarter time

It happens

Where we did have our problem v Hawthorn was that they beat us in the contest and dictated the game accordingly - and to me it appeared they were getting more bodies to the contests

During the Collingwood game we lost both Henry and Wood, both of whom have resumed over the last 2 weeks directly into the League side

[Scollop]

No side plays perfect football

The metric is making less unforced errors than your opposition

Look at the Adelaide player, probably one of the best kicks for goal across the competition

On the three quarter time siren he sprayed a set shot, virtually straight out from goal and just managed a point - to give the 1 point margin at three quarter time

It happens

Where we did have our problem v Hawthorn was that they beat us in the contest and dictated the game accordingly - and to me it appeared they were getting more bodies to the contests

That was Fogarty. In the last quarter he took a contested mark and nailed a set shot that was more difficult and the pressure to deliver was even greater. Without Fogarty kicking that goal with only minutes to go they might have lost the game

[Killa]

And if he had kicked a far, far easier one on three quarter time?

Ifs, hey?

If we had of recruited x instead of y

Mere speculation

[Scollop]

And if he had kicked a far, far easier one on three quarter time?

Ifs, hey?

If we had of recruited x instead of y

Mere speculation

You brought it up as a specific example. By the way that kick on the 3/4 time siren wasn't as straight forward as you described

Anyhow…He kicked the more difficult of the two goals. The thread is called cold hard facts

[repta]

5 losses under 10 points.

Such see-sawing games they were as well.

A bit like a kids 800m run where the kid walked the first 700m and Usain Bolted the last 100m to come in 4th.
So close to the podium the kid said.
If only I started running a bit earlier.

We weren't in any of those games and just stumbled over Richmond by playing 1 quarter.

[Killa]

The cold hard facts are that we have a core of players at the level

So Marshall, Wilkie, Sinclair and Hill

We have a bunch of kids we have hopes for, starting with King, Wanganeen-Milera, Windhager, Owens, Phillipou and now Wilson

So that is 10 players we hope will influence the results of games with their abilities

Past that we have a core of players who are very capable - so Steele, Crouch, Battle, Howard, Wood, Henry and Higgins

Add to that the hopes we have for Clark, free of injury and given his skills

So that gets us to 18 capable players - capable at the level not just making up the numbers

No doubt some will pile on saying x and y have been left out

And no doubt also some will be critical of Howard

Then you get to the North Adelaide product Keeler and what he promises - and the other kids we have given some AFL exposure this year

The bits I have seen of Keeler he could be anything with his skill set for his height

We go to the Draft again - seeing if we can snag another Wilson

So the gap between 18 and 23 narrows

Acknowledging injuries so a core able to perform if called upon

This is of course before you look at positional demographics - which is where Keeler comes in

For all the negativity on this site, this is where I come from

Looking at the future and building

[B.M]

What happened to the dual narrative

[Scollop]

The cold hard facts are that we have a core of players at the level

So Marshall, Wilkie, Sinclair and Hill

We have a bunch of kids we have hopes for, starting with King, Wanganeen-Milera, Windhager, Owens, Phillipou and now Wilson

So that is 10 players we hope will influence the results of games with their abilities

Past that we have a core of players who are very capable - so Steele, Crouch, Battle, Howard, Wood, Henry and Higgins

Add to that the hopes we have for Clark, free of injury and given his skills

So that gets us to 18 capable players - capable at the level not just making up the numbers

No doubt some will pile on saying x and y have been left out

And no doubt also some will be critical of Howard

Then you get to the North Adelaide product Keeler and what he promises - and the other kids we have given some AFL exposure this year

The bits I have seen of Keeler he could be anything with his skill set for his height

We go to the Draft again - seeing if we can snag another Wilson

So the gap between 18 and 23 narrows

Acknowledging injuries so a core able to perform if called upon

This is of course before you look at positional demographics - which is where Keeler comes in

For all the negativity on this site, this is where I come from

Looking at the future and building

So generous of you to think that Steele is ‘very capable’. You’ve lumped him in with Dougal Howard and Liam Henry

I suppose it must have been a fluke that he was All Australian ….And somehow he fluked 2 jackets and somehow fluked getting equal third with Petracca in the Brownlow in 2021.

[ace]

If we win 10 or more of our next 14 ... I doubt we would be stumbling in

Win 10 of next 14 and the form will be so red hot it will be like the Bulldogs when they they won their premiership.
Not happening.
The facts are St Kilda will not play finals in 2024.
They can choose to play for wins or play for better draft picks.

[Beno88]

As usual with St Kilda, there’s a truckload of overreaction when we have a poor game or two. And the reality is, that’s what it’s been. Two poor games. Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn. Throw in the first half vs Richmond and the second half vs Essendon and you could say three games in total. Two of those (Essendon and Hawthorn) we lost by less than a kick. Had we not been victims of the MRP roulette wheel, I dare say Max King and Jack Higgins would’ve been worth one goal in those games. You might say that’s just making excuses and masking over cracks, but 4 points is a handy mask. 5-4 looks far better than 3-6.

I read articles suggesting our list is in “no-man’s land” and we lack emerging talent. Merely 2 months ago the media spruiked the young brigade of Owens, Wanganeen-Milera, Windhager, Phillipou, Caminiti, Wilson, Henry, etc. They haven’t forgotten how to play footy, in fact Wilson, NWM and Windhager have been among our most consistent performers. Our list is on the right track, but it’s raw and needs midfield grunt. The same articles suggest Geelong, Collingwood, Essendon and GWS are amongst the competition benchmarks and WILL play finals. Our collective margin against those four… +2 points.

What does that tell us? Yes, we’ve been caught short chasing games on a few occasions, but we’re not that far away.

Are we that far off the much-hyped Carlton? In games decided by 10 points or less, Carlton have gone 4-1, we’ve gone 1-5. Carlton have played just two interstate games this season, one on neutral territory, and they’ve had a bye.

Are we that far off Essendon? They sit 3rd with a percentage just 2.3% above us. They haven’t lost any of their four matches decided by 6 pts or less and have beaten just one side in the eight.

Are we that far off GWS? Considered a premiership fancy, but their 6 wins have come against sides sitting 8th, 18th, 16th, 10th, 14th and 13th. Winning just once away from home or neutral territory.

There’s plenty that needs to improve at St Kilda, but if it does, look out, we’re not as far away as many think.

[CURLY]

5 losses under 10 points.

Such see-sawing games they were as well.

A bit like a kids 800m run where the kid walked the first 700m and Usain Bolted the last 100m to come in 4th.
So close to the podium the kid said.
If only I started running a bit earlier.

We weren't in any of those games and just stumbled over Richmond by playing 1 quarter.

Ridiculous post.

[spert]

As usual with St Kilda, there’s a truckload of overreaction when we have a poor game or two. And the reality is, that’s what it’s been. Two poor games. Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn. Throw in the first half vs Richmond and the second half vs Essendon and you could say three games in total. Two of those (Essendon and Hawthorn) we lost by less than a kick. Had we not been victims of the MRP roulette wheel, I dare say Max King and Jack Higgins would’ve been worth one goal in those games. You might say that’s just making excuses and masking over cracks, but 4 points is a handy mask. 5-4 looks far better than 3-6.

I read articles suggesting our list is in “no-man’s land” and we lack emerging talent. Merely 2 months ago the media spruiked the young brigade of Owens, Wanganeen-Milera, Windhager, Phillipou, Caminiti, Wilson, Henry, etc. They haven’t forgotten how to play footy, in fact Wilson, NWM and Windhager have been among our most consistent performers. Our list is on the right track, but it’s raw and needs midfield grunt. The same articles suggest Geelong, Collingwood, Essendon and GWS are amongst the competition benchmarks and WILL play finals. Our collective margin against those four… +2 points.

What does that tell us? Yes, we’ve been caught short chasing games on a few occasions, but we’re not that far away.

Are we that far off the much-hyped Carlton? In games decided by 10 points or less, Carlton have gone 4-1, we’ve gone 1-5. Carlton have played just two interstate games this season, one on neutral territory, and they’ve had a bye.

Are we that far off Essendon? They sit 3rd with a percentage just 2.3% above us. They haven’t lost any of their four matches decided by 6 pts or less and have beaten just one side in the eight.

Are we that far off GWS? Considered a premiership fancy, but their 6 wins have come against sides sitting 8th, 18th, 16th, 10th, 14th and 13th. Winning just once away from home or neutral territory.

There’s plenty that needs to improve at St Kilda, but if it does, look out, we’re not as far away as many think.

Don't forget the Geelong game where the scoreboard flattered us- flat as pancake in the first quarter against a team who were not really going at full pace. Essendon ran us off our feet as game went on, superior skills and basically bypassed Lyon''s defensive game. We are a long way off until we get more class into the midfield for starters. Wins are wins and losses are just that- it means nothing to get close, it's a loss.

[repta]

5 losses under 10 points.

Such see-sawing games they were as well.

A bit like a kids 800m run where the kid walked the first 700m and Usain Bolted the last 100m to come in 4th.
So close to the podium the kid said.
If only I started running a bit earlier.

We weren't in any of those games and just stumbled over Richmond by playing 1 quarter.

Ridiculous post.

Why?



Against GWS - We never lead all day. We kicked the last 6 goals of the game to bridge the 39 point deficit
Against Port we only lead for a couple of minutes in the second half. Kicked 3 of the last 4 goals to bridge the gap
Against Hawthorn - Never lead all day. Kicked last 2 goals in a game that which had a score line that read 7 goals to 8
Against Geelong - the Saints lead for most of the first quarter and not after. We Kicked 3 of the last 4 goals to cut the margin.

The only one they were unluck with was the Essendon game where the Saints actually lead for the majority of the day and stopped.
We only played for one quarter against Richmond.

Cant rely on pinching games at in the last quarter or playing in patches.

[Devilhead]

Why is the last quarter or the last 15 mins any less important than any other stage of a match?