Cold Hard Facts

[Devilhead]

Yes the Cold Hard Facts ....

We are all in agreeance that currenrly we aren't playing great footy ... let's call it a form slump ... we are struggling to score

We sit 3 & 6 with 96% (28pts to the negative) ... our % is quite decent considering the win loss ratio

If we are to play Finals then we could only afford to lose another 4 and would need to win at least 10

We have been beset by injuries and suspensions but we starting to get players back

We have had 5 losses by 10pts and under ... 4 of those against sides that currently sit in the Top 6 ... all 5 were away games

Geelong (2nd) by 8pts ... away at Geelong with 3 less scoring shots
Essendon (3rd) by 4pts ... at Marvel (away) with 1 more scoring shot
GWS (5th) by 1pt ...away at Canberra with 5 less scoring shots
Port (6th) by 10pts ... away at Port with 10 less scoring shots
Hawthorn (15th) by 5pts ... away in Tassie with same scoring shots

From the 14 matches left to play - we play 6 teams in the current top 8 and 8 teams outside of the 8

From those 14 games - 10 are at Marvel / 1 at the MCG / 3 interstate (Gabba/ Adelaide/ Perth)

The blow torch has now well and truly been applied on both the coaches and playing list

It is not impossible to make the 8

[SaintPav]

Oh, I don’t know. Me thinks the toxic fluoropolymer might beg to differ, being conflicted and all that.

[Otiman]

I'd rather not make the 8 than stumble in and lose a final.

[Devilhead]

If we win 10 or more of our next 14 ... I doubt we would be stumbling in

[Vortex]

Got more chance of winning 1st division in the lotto than us making they 8 this season. Those are the facts.

We are well short on talent and way off the pace.

We over achieved last season.

It's about rebuilding over the next few years so buckle up.

[bobmurray]

Another cold hard fact is that Saints supporters have convinced themselves to be optimists.

[Devilhead]

Got more chance of winning 1st division in the lotto than us making they 8 this season. Those are the facts.

We are well short on talent and way off the pace.

We over achieved last season.

It's about rebuilding over the next few years so buckle up.

That's not fact (not yet anyway) ... that's your opinion

Are Essendon overachieving this year? Cause they were very fkn shite last year

The fact is we have lost to 4 of the current top 6 sides by 10pts or under ....with a large injury and suspension list all the while not playing great football.

And what the fk is overachieving? I tell you what .... its the most cop out phrase in existence

The talent was there last year and all of a sudden .... its not

Did we "overachieve" because others underachieved?

Pretty sure we won games last year because we played good solid footy not because opposition teams played shite ... we deserved our Finals place

[Teflon]

Oh, I don’t know. Me thinks the toxic fluoropolymer might beg to differ, being conflicted and all that.

You been in the dictionary again impressing mum ?
You’ll get a choccy off BM with this effort!!

[Teflon]

I'd rather not make the 8 than stumble in and lose a final.

Absolutely
Forget the 8
Play the kids just get the pick
Focus on future

[Killa]

The old story was that winning a premiership meant you had to improve by at least 10% the next year including by personnel being recruited

And work on the basis every other side is going to improve by 20%

The fact is that you are always building

[Vortex]

Got more chance of winning 1st division in the lotto than us making they 8 this season. Those are the facts.

We are well short on talent and way off the pace.

We over achieved last season.

It's about rebuilding over the next few years so buckle up.

That's not fact (not yet anyway) ... that's your opinion

Are Essendon overachieving this year? Cause they were very fkn shite last year

The fact is we have lost to 4 of the current top 6 sides by 10pts or under ....with a large injury and suspension list all the while not playing great football.

And what the fk is overachieving? I tell you what .... its the most cop out phrase in existence

The talent was there last year and all of a sudden .... its not

Did we "overachieve" because others underachieved?

Pretty sure we won games last year because we played good solid footy not because opposition teams played shite ... we deserved our Finals place

I can't comment on Essendon because I don't know them as intimately as I do our boys.

Talent wasn't there last year, we over achieved.

What does it mean in our context.

Combine these things:

-Easy draw early in 2023
-Lyon honeymoon effect had us up early and comp hadn't worked us out so we took full advantage of easy draw early.
- we had many significant results by teams around us on the ladder go our way to help us fall into finals.
- it was very clear we were making up finals numbers and looked like boys against men in the GWS final.

- then consider we embarked on an even harder youth policy and went to the draft primary for list inclusions in the off season.

It's why most of the neutrals and pundits in AFL world predicted we would slide this year...very young, inexperienced and talented list.

Not helped by injury list and form indifference from some senior players which is not helpful at the best of times but less so when you are in a hard rebuild.

There's that word again, rebuild, and that's the final reason we don't have the talent to play finals anytime soon, rebuilds are about finding a critical mass of talent about 25 to 27, and then condition said talent with an average of 75 to 100 games.

We is a long way off it...and there is a fine line between fact and opinion when it comes to fans discussing footy.

It's not rocket surgery and with the exception of say the Baby Bombers of 1993, history proves you can't take short cuts and snatch a flag with half of your players being kids.

[SAINT-LEE]

I'm pretty sure we had a larger injury list at the start of 2023 than 2024.

It was RTB, a new strategy, the vibe at the club, favourable schedule, etc etc. that contributed to our top 8 position. But we definitely snuck in as we rarely won games in the last half of the season ( even some games we 'won' we didnt).

I figured 9-12 ladder for '24 & reckon we still hit it.

I am however very agreeable to a bottom 4 finish for draft picks but it crushes potential destination club vibes for trades.

[Devilhead]

A bit of a myth that our draw was easy at the start of last year ... in the first 7 games we played 3 teams that were in the Finals from 2022 and played 3 teams that ended up playing Finals alongside us in 2023 ... including the Premier

6 of first 7 games were against sides that finished in the Top 12 from 2022 ... only 1 was in thr bottom 6 and that was Essendon

All whilst playing with a significant injury list as pointed out by Saint-Lee above

I guess we were just lucky

[Vortex]

A bit of a myth that our draw was easy at the start of last year ... in the first 7 games we played 3 teams that were in the Finals from 2022 and played 3 teams that ended up playing Finals alongside us in 2023 ... including the Premier

6 of first 7 games were against sides that finished in the Top 12 from 2022 ... only 1 was in thr bottom 6 and that was Essendon

All whilst playing with a significant injury list as pointed out by Saint-Lee above

I guess we were just lucky

Easy draw....easy games....same same but different.

For example we have already knocked off the Pies but we got them at a REALLY good time.

And gee I don't know about you but I'd fancy our chance against the Lions at the moment.

Ahhn the beauty of a sport like AFL....so many nuances.

[Devilhead]

It's not rocket surgery and with the exception of say the Baby Bombers of 1993, history proves you can't take short cuts and snatch a flag with half of your players being kids.

You can also snatch 3 Flags by playing a brand of tippy tappy crappy chaos football as Richmond did all whilst being last on the free kick table

[SaintPav]

Weren’t we the best defensive team last year?

That’s a pretty solid effort.

[Devilhead]

A bit of a myth that our draw was easy at the start of last year ... in the first 7 games we played 3 teams that were in the Finals from 2022 and played 3 teams that ended up playing Finals alongside us in 2023 ... including the Premier

6 of first 7 games were against sides that finished in the Top 12 from 2022 ... only 1 was in thr bottom 6 and that was Essendon

All whilst playing with a significant injury list as pointed out by Saint-Lee above

I guess we were just lucky

Easy draw....easy games....same same but different.

For example we have already knocked off the Pies but we got them at a REALLY good time.

And gee I don't know about you but I'd fancy our chance against the Lions at the moment.

Ahhn the beauty of a sport like AFL....so many nuances.

So we got lucky playing the Pies when we did but other teams (4 in the current Top 6 mind you) didn't get lucky playing us with our significant injury /suspension list?

Always the way isn't it .... we get lucky when we win but other teams never get lucky when they win .. especially against us

[Waltzing St Kilda]

Saturday night represents our first match of the season with a home-ground advantage. We've also played interstate four times (I'if you include Gather Round). Also a game at the Cattery.

Compare to Collingwood. Six games with home-ground advantage (if you include games against Marvel tenants). Three interstate games.

Richmond (just as an example). Five games with home-ground advantage. Three interstate games.

North. Three home-ground dvantage. Three interstate.

And so on.

[Devilhead]

Weren’t we the best defensive team last year?

That’s a pretty solid effort.

Cmon Saint Pav ... our defensive unit just rode their luck

Forget also that this year they are currently ranked 6th in lowest points against

[Vortex]

A bit of a myth that our draw was easy at the start of last year ... in the first 7 games we played 3 teams that were in the Finals from 2022 and played 3 teams that ended up playing Finals alongside us in 2023 ... including the Premier

6 of first 7 games were against sides that finished in the Top 12 from 2022 ... only 1 was in thr bottom 6 and that was Essendon

All whilst playing with a significant injury list as pointed out by Saint-Lee above

I guess we were just lucky

Easy draw....easy games....same same but different.

For example we have already knocked off the Pies but we got them at a REALLY good time.

And gee I don't know about you but I'd fancy our chance against the Lions at the moment.

Ahhn the beauty of a sport like AFL....so many nuances.

So we got lucky playing the Pies when we did but other teams (4 in the current Top 6 mind you) didn't get lucky playing us with our significant injury /suspension list?

Always the way isn't it .... we get lucky when we win but other teams never get lucky when they win .. especially against us

Fair enough DevilHead, what's that saying, "never rob a man of his fairh".

If you think we are a chance at a flag then I'm going to wave you on through and admire your passion from distance.

[Devilhead]

And if you believe the the only way to win a Premiership is bottoming out and tanking then knock yourself out

[Ajantis]

Didnt we make finals 2023 ? and should progress in 2024 making finals again muwhahahahah thats a joke.

[Vortex]

And if you believe the the only way to win a Premiership is bottoming out and tanking then knock yourself out

I actually don’t know, and clearly no body else has either for 150 years.

But maybe if we aren’t any chance of playing finals then what you get out of the remainder of the season usually turns to planning and preparing for the future.

I don’t think members and sponsors will jump off this year if we end up bottom 4 and pick up a good midfielder in the draft. But they might if we end up bottom 4 next year and beyond and that is the balancing act I suppose with regards of keeping members and sponsors intact.

[Vortex]

And if you believe the the only way to win a Premiership is bottoming out and tanking then knock yourself out

I actually don’t know, and clearly no body else has either for 150 years.

But maybe if we aren’t any chance of playing finals then what you get out of the remainder of the season usually turns to planning and preparing for the future.

I don’t think members and sponsors will jump off this year if we end up bottom 4 and pick up a good midfielder in the draft. But they might if we end up bottom 4 next year and beyond and that is the balancing act I suppose with regards of keeping members and sponsors intact.

[quidnunc]

You don't win many games if you do not trouble the scorer!