Dual narrative

[B.M]

Is the new ‘year of exploration’

So we are trying to win games and get games into kids at the same time - to build a premiership list

Injuries could be a blessing in disguise
Maybe this year, dropping down and getting a pick 5-8 won’t be the worst thing? Combined with a pick 23-28. And maybe trading in to get another? Not sure who we could/would let go for that though? Battle?? But he would be a loss! Same with Clark? Howard - not worth much?!

And another thing
We want to remain competitive whilst rebuilding

So we have two schools of thought
1/ who remains on the list in the immediate to short term
To give leadership and remain somewhat competitive
2/ who is in our next premiership team that needs games


3 categories - looking at a 4 year build

Yes - 14
Windhager, Collard, Wanganeen Milera, Owens, Clark, King, Marshall, Wilson, Henry, Hastie, Phillipou, Battle, Schoenmaker, Garcia,

Maybe - 12
Higgins, Hill, Steele, Byrnes (depth), Stocker, Dow, Keeler, Paton, Sinclair, McLennan (depth), Heath (depth), Caminiti (depth)

No - 18
Jones, Crouch, Ross, Butler, Hayes, Howard, Cordy, Membrey, Webster, Allison, Van Es, Wood, Bonner, Campbell, Hotton, Sharman, Wilkie, McConnell (doubtful)

In that time we need 12 draft picks
A couple of trades
A couple of FAs

[B.M]

Wilkie is in the wrong category

checked his age - just turned 28

Will be 31/32 when contending so should be in the maybe category

[cwrcyn]

A lot of players these days play until they're 33 or 34, so the 28 year olds could play another 5 years, maybe 6.

Our youngsters need two more seasons to get to being consistent footballers with mature bodies. It's a a bit of a tightrope we're on.

Let's look at a team of players currently aged 25 or under.

B:Stocker(24) Battle (25) Hastie (19)
HB:Schoenmaker (19) Keeler (19) Wanganeen-Milera (21)
C:Wilson(18) Windhager (20) Henry(22)
HF:Owens (20) Caminiti (20) Phillipou (19)
F:Higgins (25) King (23) Collard (18)

R:Heath (21) Dow (24)Clark (25)

Inter: Garcia (18) Paton (25) Byrnes (22) Sharman (23)

Heath is unlikely to make it based on what we've seen

Two thirds of that team is aged 22 or younger. Most of those players can improve, but some will not make it.

[B.M]

Only really good players (A Grade) get to play to 34/35

If your an also ran or your best is behind you, you likely gone at 30

Even Crouch, Ross, Membrey, Jones, Webster who have all been serviceable or better will be done at 30-32

A Grade players like Marshall, Steele, Wilkie, Sinclair can go through to 34/35 because they are elite

It also depends on position
Outside players last a lot longer, Ruckmen come into their own at 30-34yo

[B.M]

Steele will only get past 32 if his body holds up

[Yorkeys]

Of course its not a dual narrative.
Its a single narrative: Ross aims to improve the club incrementally over 5 years and this improvement has a number of strands (obvious to those that have real world experience and don't believe in fairies or magic? - although Harry Potter is true, I read the book).
Poor sports journos can't understand complexity, its a binary transaction or their heads explode.
Win Good Lose bad. Isn't shades of grey a soft porn book? Now drag your knuckles over to the bar and lets explain why Clarkson was a genius with Hawthorn but apparently not at North, clearly the magic is gone. What else could it be.
Now Hardwick was a genius, then wasn't, and now is a budding one. Funny how genius comes and goes then comes....

[SteeleSaints]

An interesting post Cwcyn.

I dont know how Van Es 19 yo will return from his ankle concerns, but I gather the club still has hope for him.
Hotton 19 yo is another I wouldnt write off just yet.

Your exercise highlights our list weakness that still remains elite midfielders and other ruckman/tall forwards. Keeler will most likely become that player rather than a key defender, either way we still need key posiion players. We need a big bodied dominant mid and speed and class through the midfield.

[SaintPav]

Reads like a rebuild to me.

What rebuild is this since 2012?

2 or 3?

Think it’s the second though don’t think we ever really bit the bullet totally.

[B.M]

I don’t thinkk we’ve rebuilt at all since Pelchen

Which is why we are a mid table mess

In 2018/2019
We did a top up after recruiting Clarke, Coffield and King
Hannebery then Ryder, Hill, Howard, Butler,
Then Higgins, Zak Jones and Crouch

[cwrcyn]

Getting Simon Dalrymple to the club surely means we are more draft focused than trade focused.

I can't see any evidence of a genuine rebuild from 2012 to 2022, just a series of ill conceived moves, third rate recruitment, and failed development.

Our recruitment strategy is different this time. Instead of the slow and steady (Dunstan, Ross, Billings), the focus now is on speed, endurance, and evasive skills (Wilson, Collard, Hastie). Elshaug avoided X factor players like Shai Bolton and Petracca, giving us a vanilla playing list with no match winners.

Lyon is trying to remedy this and Dalrymple is the man who's been brought in to deliver. After previously coaching a midfield of Hayes, Harvey, Goddard, and Dal Santo, Lyon would have been horrified by the lack of midfield class in this current line up

So yeah, it's a rebuild on the run. The dual narrative is a reality and it's the right approach. Lyon would have known during the 2023 preseason that what he had at his disposal was not going to cut it in the final two weeks of September

[SAINT-LEE]

Clarke is a maybe, I have seen good play but no speed, smarts but lacks tenacity.

Higgins a maybe? Putting our leading goal kicker from last season & leading in 2024...in the maybe...why?

[B.M]

Because he can’t kick

[samuraisaint]

Is the new ‘year of exploration’

So we are trying to win games and get games into kids at the same time - to build a premiership list

Injuries could be a blessing in disguise
Maybe this year, dropping down and getting a pick 5-8 won’t be the worst thing? Combined with a pick 23-28. And maybe trading in to get another? Not sure who we could/would let go for that though? Battle?? But he would be a loss! Same with Clark? Howard - not worth much?!

And another thing
We want to remain competitive whilst rebuilding

So we have two schools of thought
1/ who remains on the list in the immediate to short term
To give leadership and remain somewhat competitive
2/ who is in our next premiership team that needs games


3 categories - looking at a 4 year build

Yes - 14
Windhager, Collard, Wanganeen Milera, Owens, Clark, King, Marshall, Wilson, Henry, Hastie, Phillipou, Battle, Schoenmaker, Garcia,

Maybe - 12
Higgins, Hill, Steele, Byrnes (depth), Stocker, Dow, Keeler, Paton, Sinclair, McLennan (depth), Heath (depth), Caminiti (depth)

No - 18
Jones, Crouch, Ross, Butler, Hayes, Howard, Cordy, Membrey, Webster, Allison, Van Es, Wood, Bonner, Campbell, Hotton, Sharman, Wilkie, McConnell (doubtful)

In that time we need 12 draft picks
A couple of trades
A couple of FAs

You make some good points. The last two years - three really - Ratts had already brought in Owens, NWM and Windhager in his last year - (i think Ratts was a bit hard done by, just quietly, and this has been borne out by some of the performances he got out of North when he coached them) - we have introduced a lot of younger players who are playing blocks of games, whole seasons really, and this is a good thing. With Higgins out due to suspension this gives Collard a real opportunity to play at least 3 games, and who knows? He may stay in for the rest of the season if he can have an impact.

I am happy that RTB is playing 7 or 8 under 21yo players each week. We are almost playing a college ball player team every week. When our experienced players are match fit and ready to return, that might be when some of the younger players are fatiguing and ready for a rest. Win/win.

[Teflon]

Is the new ‘year of exploration’

So we are trying to win games and get games into kids at the same time - to build a premiership list

Injuries could be a blessing in disguise
Maybe this year, dropping down and getting a pick 5-8 won’t be the worst thing? Combined with a pick 23-28. And maybe trading in to get another? Not sure who we could/would let go for that though? Battle?? But he would be a loss! Same with Clark? Howard - not worth much?!

And another thing
We want to remain competitive whilst rebuilding

So we have two schools of thought
1/ who remains on the list in the immediate to short term
To give leadership and remain somewhat competitive
2/ who is in our next premiership team that needs games


3 categories - looking at a 4 year build

Yes - 14
Windhager, Collard, Wanganeen Milera, Owens, Clark, King, Marshall, Wilson, Henry, Hastie, Phillipou, Battle, Schoenmaker, Garcia,

Maybe - 12
Higgins, Hill, Steele, Byrnes (depth), Stocker, Dow, Keeler, Paton, Sinclair, McLennan (depth), Heath (depth), Caminiti (depth)

No - 18
Jones, Crouch, Ross, Butler, Hayes, Howard, Cordy, Membrey, Webster, Allison, Van Es, Wood, Bonner, Campbell, Hotton, Sharman, Wilkie, McConnell (doubtful)

In that time we need 12 draft picks
A couple of trades
A couple of FAs

Your best post on this site in 5 years
You’ve peaked but need to hold this form
Definitely a dual narrative…try to win games (so don’t be Nth) while blooding kids…
It’s a very very narrow path though …an injury here or there or a down week from kids…you’ll drop games and probably some the dead s*** media pencilled us in for…
I think it’s the right plan

[B.M]

Really, why thank you Teflon

Your approval means so much to me!

Just because a post suits your agenda doesn’t make it good… and conversely if a post is contrary to your opinion doesn’t make it bad!

I’ll add some spice

I don’t think Ross will be coach when we contend. It’ll be the first year of a new coach

[Otiman]

The disappointment in this year isn't the losses (although they hurt), it's that we are playing periods of really poor footy.

I would expect any Lyon coached side to be 'on' every quarter. We need to be.

Lack of consistency is common in young sides, but we are a rollercoaster.

I can't fault effort or motivation, so what is it?

The one 'narrative' that has disappeared this year is the "they're such a coachable group". I wonder if that's got something to do with it.

[Teflon]

Really, why thank you Teflon

Your approval means so much to me!

Just because a post suits your agenda doesn’t make it good… and conversely if a post is contrary to your opinion doesn’t make it bad!

I’ll add some spice

I don’t think Ross will be coach when we contend. It’ll be the first year of a new coach

You spicy thing you
Get to the front of the RTB fan queue- no waiting for you!!
Firey - let the man in!!!

[Teflon]

The disappointment in this year isn't the losses (although they hurt), it's that we are playing periods of really poor footy.

I would expect any Lyon coached side to be 'on' every quarter. We need to be.

Lack of consistency is common in young sides, but we are a rollercoaster.

I can't fault effort or motivation, so what is it?

The one 'narrative' that has disappeared this year is the "they're such a coachable group". I wonder if that's got something to do with it.

It’s 7 players under 21 isn’t it?
4 debutants this year already
Key forward missing half the matches
6/8 best 22 out at any point in time?
I’ve only seen 1 game of below park effort - Dogs and watching that game live they were out on their feet
I think it’s explained

[SaintPav]

Love the toxic trolling on a Monday morning.

Pathetic behaviour.

[66Iwasthere]

Game prep could have something to do with it as well. Over 6 rounds we have played on a Thursday, Friday, Saturday or Sunday and off two 5 day breaks. We have travelled to Geelong, Adelaide twice and Canberra and have played on two non standard AFL sized grounds (Geelong and Norwood). Surely this messes with our game prep.

[Otiman]

It’s 7 players under 21 isn’t it?
4 debutants this year already
Key forward missing half the matches
6/8 best 22 out at any point in time?
I’ve only seen 1 game of below park effort - Dogs and watching that game live they were out on their feet
I think it’s explained

Like I said, I don't believe it's effort. It's also not full games.

But in terms of poor performing periods, see:

Richmond H1
Dogs Q1 (and remaining match)
Port Q1 (scoreboard flattered us)
GWS Q1-3
Geelong at the start of Q2 and Q4 where they kicked 6 goals on us.

Essendon was probably our second worst loss, but the performance was consistent through the game.
And then there's the Collingwood game, which was great. And that's our whole season.

If I'm going to throw a bone for a reason, it's possibly that the injuries are forcing players to play in roles they had not trained for. See Sharman back for a prime example. Byrnes anywhere/everywhere.

The issue with this is that if we can't burn opponents away on the scoreboard when we are on top, ANY time where the opposition can get on top, will lead to a loss.

[66Iwasthere]

A positive out of all this is that our players will be more versatile and can be thrown around during a game to our advantage rather than being forced because of injury

[MC Gusto]

We have had the 2nd youngest list on the field this year. 2nd or 3rd is what I’ve heard
Naturally talks to a rebuild in my mind

Anyway good OP BM - I agree with the narrative

[shrodes]

We have had the 2nd youngest list on the field this year. 2nd or 3rd is what I’ve heard
Naturally talks to a rebuild in my mind

Anyway good OP BM - I agree with the narrative

We were lower, but 14th after this week (Adelaide, GC, Hawks, North lower). Still quite a bit below AFL average
https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats ... ?year=2024

[Kick-it-lace-out]

Is the new ‘year of exploration’

So we are trying to win games and get games into kids at the same time - to build a premiership list

Injuries could be a blessing in disguise
Maybe this year, dropping down and getting a pick 5-8 won’t be the worst thing? Combined with a pick 23-28. And maybe trading in to get another? Not sure who we could/would let go for that though? Battle?? But he would be a loss! Same with Clark? Howard - not worth much?!

And another thing
We want to remain competitive whilst rebuilding

So we have two schools of thought
1/ who remains on the list in the immediate to short term
To give leadership and remain somewhat competitive
2/ who is in our next premiership team that needs games


3 categories - looking at a 4 year build

Yes - 14
Windhager, Collard, Wanganeen Milera, Owens, Clark, King, Marshall, Wilson, Henry, Hastie, Phillipou, Battle, Schoenmaker, Garcia,

Maybe - 12
Higgins, Hill, Steele, Byrnes (depth), Stocker, Dow, Keeler, Paton, Sinclair, McLennan (depth), Heath (depth), Caminiti (depth)

No - 18
Jones, Crouch, Ross, Butler, Hayes, Howard, Cordy, Membrey, Webster, Allison, Van Es, Wood, Bonner, Campbell, Hotton, Sharman, Wilkie, McConnell (doubtful)

In that time we need 12 draft picks
A couple of trades
A couple of FAs

Great Post! My only build on this is that I don't think Ryan Byrnes is a 'Maybe'. For me he's a definite 'No'.

I also think that in order to speed up our re-build before Tassie come in to the competition, we may need to put one of our top liners up for trade. Now, don't shoot me for this suggestion, but perhaps the time is right to put Sinclair up for trade. He's 29yo (so probably won't be around for our next premiership tilt), and probably one of the only few players on our list that would secure us an early first round pick (Pick 3-5).