maverick wrote: ↑Fri 05 Apr 2024 8:49am
We all talk petracca v mccartin
But the biggest travesty was Judd v ball
That cost us a premiership
We'd only have won a premiership with Judd if the coach had remembered to play him in the fourth quarter of the GF.
Seriously, I would say that Ball vs Judd wasn't such a bad pick, in that Ball was an A-grade player (or very close to being one) and delivered pretty well during his career for both us and the Pies, notwithstanding his injury problems which were not all foreseeable at the time of the draft (remembering that both he and Judd were injury concerns at the time). Sure Judd was a better player than Ball, but I think a reasonable benchmark for using the early picks in any draft is to choose someone who can deliver 200 quality games and some club B&Fs and perhaps an AA or two.
Ball met my benchmark, but Billings has fallen a way short, although he might still eventually get to 200 games. He looked the goods when selected, but hasn't developed into the gamebreaking attacking force that warranted his going so early in the draft. So he's a failure, but not a terrible one. Sure, Bontempelli is tons better than him, but few pundits were suggesting this at the time of the draft.
McCartin still remains the worst ever use of a #1 draft pick by the club and possibly the worst ever by any club. First of all, there is some evidence to suggest that at least part of why he was chosen was driven by marketing concerns rather than the simple aim of finding the best available player. It was hoped he could be the sort of Tony Lockett type of FF who would bring crowds to our games. But, even in his early pre-season appearances, it was pretty clear to all who could take their rose-coloured glasses off that he was not mobile enough to play FF in the modern game and was also not particularly reliable at taking set shots. He was, however, a good mark and pretty good at passing by foot, which was why he was able to reinvent himself at the Swans as a reasonable quality defender, although nothing remotely near what one would expect from a #1 draft pick. His shortcomings as a FF were visible beforee he started getting concussed all the time and should have been picked up before we considered drafting him: I really don't know why this was not the case.
There is no doubt that many people in football tend to get a bit over-excited when they see large, strong FFs (some of the commentary that goes on when Tex Walker is playing borders on the homoerotic). So I think they often get overvalued. Let's face it, there are plenty of pretty ordinary ones running around at any time: Ben Brown and Charlie Dixon immediately jump to my mind. I would once have included Jesse Hogan on my list too, but all of a sudden he's playing out of his skin (Kingsley's a bloody good coach IMO: perhaps we should have given him a crack ahead of Ratten).
Of course the worst thing about our picking McCartin was that what we really needed at the time - have needed for a decade or more - was a quality attacking mid. And there he was sitting in the draft, visible to all (including our coach Richo, who seems to have tried to persuade the club to go with Petracca instead of McCartin). And many pundits predicted big things for him: far more than was the case with the Bont.
In cricket, the adage is that, if you win the toss, you bat first nine times out of ten, and the tenth time you think about sending the opposition and then decide to bat first. In using a #1 draft pick, I think the adage should be that nine out of ten times you go for the best available mid, and the tenth time you pick Nick Riewoldt because he was a once-in-a-generation talent. McCartin was never that.
Sorry that went on so long, but analysing the performances of players is really interesting. Obviously a lot of posters are currently enjoying picking Billings's performances for the Dees to pieces. I predict that he might get a bit better over the next few weeks. He is still recovering from a prolonged period of being injured and the blow he received to his confidence when it became clear that he was no longer wanted at the Saints.
"It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into."
- Jonathan Swift
