The list

[Otiman]

No, not the playing list. Not the coaching list.

The list of people in the media (or talking to the media) who are picking us to fall out of the 8 this year.

I'm keen on keeping a record to see how the narrative tracks during the season.

46% of 5108 voters on AFL.com.au - "who will drop out of the 8" https://www.afl.com.au/news/1082460/pre ... redictions

From afl.com.au "crystal ball" article - and to be fair i've no idea who half of them are https://www.afl.com.au/news/1080056/cry ... son-are-in

Damian Barrett - 9th
Riley Beveridge - Nominated "set to fall", 12th
Sarah Black - 9th
Nat Edwards - Nominated 'set to fall', 13th
Josh Gabelich - Nominated 'set to fall', 11th
Sarah Olle - - Nominated 'set to fall', 12th, but tips Owens for AA
Nathan Schmook - 9th
Cal Twomey - Nominated "set to fall", 12th
Michael Whiting - - Nominated "set to fall", 14th

SEN's predictions - https://www.sen.com.au/news/2024/03/04/ ... edictions/

The following picked St Kilda to be "Biggest Slider" - Again i've no idea who half of the people on their list are.

Luke Hodge
Mark Bickley
Paul Haselby
Liam Pickering
Scott Cummings
David Wildy
Adam White

Fox Footy's First Crack (Joey, David King, Huddo) https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-se ... 785c33f85b

Nil

Zerohanger's season predictions: https://www.zerohanger.com/five-flag-wi ... ns-147975/

Aidan Cellini
Ed Carmine
Charlie Cosgrove
Ethan Lee Chalk
Mitch Keating
Phoenix Trinidad

From AFL.com.au Captain's Survey - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1082535/202 ... s-and-more
The AFL Captains - only 3 voted St Kilda to make the 8

The squiggle.com.au ladder predictor https://squiggle.com.au/
Squiggle - 10th to 13th (varies every time you run the predictor)

Wheelo ratings - https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_simulations.html
Wheelo - 12th

If there are any more, I'll add them to the list.

[Beno88]

Try this one then...

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/ ... nt-killers

[NickyDal]

Boring........

[Life Long Saint]

Try this one then...

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/ ... nt-killers

Not sure how to take this article now...They predicted GWS to win the lot. Seriously can't see that happening.

Also, what are they teaching at journalist school? It's clearly not grammar.

The Saints are watertight down back, conceding less points than anyone last year, including the highly rated Melbourne and Collingwood backlines.

FFS...It's FEWER, not less.
It's an easy rule to remember...If you can count it, then use fewer...(e.g. spend less money, spend fewer dollars).
/rant

[Otiman]

There are a few picking us, but definitely the majority are predicting our downfall.

[wally]

I think in the article where they ask the club captains (afl.com) only 3 picked us in the eight

[SaintPav]

Wisdom of crowds…

[saynta]

Where did the arsehole Kane Cornes have us finishing.

PS. Love the op post.

[Otiman]

I tried to find Kane's take because I remember him arguing with David King on it, if anyone finds that - post here

[Vortex]

The list is still vulnerable, still can’t cover injuries to certain players, depth still needs development but could get there in 2 to 3 years.

Think we will struggle to cover this season

[The Fireman]

The list is still vulnerable, still can’t cover injuries to certain players, depth still needs development but could get there in 2 to 3 years.

Think we will struggle to cover this season

Could say the same thing to just about every side in the league

Same old churned out negativity….don’t you get tired of it ?


My take is we will play finals and if you play finals, there is always a chance for the big one so by all means, keep churning out your brain numbing negativity. We just love it.


2 to 3 years …2 to 3 years ad infinitum

[Nick DalSanto Claus]

It just goes to demonstrate the poor standard of so-called "journalists" in the AFL.

Groupthink, confirmation bias, little or no research other than water cooler gossip, and a lack of in-depth analysis.

By contrast, even two of our fiercest critics, Lloyd and King have picked us to make the eight. Would that be because the two of them bothered to watch us train in the preseason? Now there's a good idea for the rest of the media pack rabble.

Most of them showed their "expertise" last year. How many of them had us finishing as high as 6th in 2023? Not one, from memory, IIRC (happy to be corrected).

Only Timid Watson picked us to make the eight, but only just. So I'm eagerly anticipating RTB and the team embarrassing them all again this year. Go Sainters!

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

The list is still vulnerable, still can’t cover injuries to certain players, depth still needs development but could get there in 2 to 3 years.

Think we will struggle to cover this season

I could be wrong here, but didn’t we play finals last year with a considerably worse injury list, and with probably worse depth (given how injury-prone a few of those we let go were, like D-Mac, Coffield and Billings), and how “unready” a few of the youngest guys were?

So we’ve replaced 3 injury-prone dudes who played 2 games between them last season with multiple ready-to-go guys in Henry, Bonner, Dow (when available) and Wilson, plus others who could potentially play, in Shoenmaker, Garcia and Collard, while some of the younger guys who weren’t ready last year like Keeler, McClennan and potentially Van Es would obviously be more ready to play this time around, if available and needed.

I would have thought we’ll be much better equipped to handle injuries this year than last, and last year we handled them extraordinarily well.

[Vortex]

The list is still vulnerable, still can’t cover injuries to certain players, depth still needs development but could get there in 2 to 3 years.

Think we will struggle to cover this season

I could be wrong here, but didn’t we play finals last year with a considerably worse injury list, and with probably worse depth (given how injury-prone a few of those we let go were, like D-Mac, Coffield and Billings), and how “unready” a few of the youngest guys were?

So we’ve replaced 3 injury-prone dudes who played 2 games between them last season with multiple ready-to-go guys in Henry, Bonner, Dow (when available) and Wilson, plus others who could potentially play, in Shoenmaker, Garcia and Collard, while some of the younger guys who weren’t ready last year like Keeler, McClennan and potentially Van Es would obviously be more ready to play this time around, if available and needed.

I would have thought we’ll be much better equipped to handle injuries this year than last, and last year we handled them extraordinarily well.

I agree on the basis the new and young guys can become instant AFL capable and Final quality almost immediately from R1, it could happen but statistically speaking unlikely.

It also assumes we have a dream run with injuries.

But if it alls goes our way then I tend to agree we could be finals bound.

[B.M]

As far as I know

All those injury prone players will be playing R1 at their new clubs

[Otiman]

IMO when fit we have 26 or 27 players that are "best 22 quality". So that's either reasonable depth outside the 22, or a poor bottom 6 inside it.

[Vortex]

As far as I know

All those injury prone players will be playing R1 at their new clubs

Speaking of it now looks like Hunter has been awarded the “injury prone” title unfortunately.

[Vortex]

IMO when fit we have 26 or 27 players that are "best 22 quality". So that's either reasonable depth outside the 22, or a poor bottom 6 inside it.

And also the unknown is, is our best 23 good enough to push deep into September? Probably a couple of seasons away just yet and we won’t know until well into the season if some of the players predicted to be in our best either can’t reach the required level or have already reached their ceiling.

They can’t all be likely types, statistically speaking.

[The Fireman]

oh I get it now.
If our players are good enough and we are lucky with injuries we will be ok but we won't know till later

I have to say these revelations are truly impressive
Kudos

[SinCitySainter]

I tend to agree with the majority of the media on this and that we are likely to slide.
I personally predict us to finish somewhere between 10 and 14.
I think we have a reasonably list but we have less top end talent than other teams that will be looking to make the eight.
We really lack any true game breakers at this time, Owen has the potential to be one as does Pou but I fear for his progress.

We have a coach who is very good at getting the best out GOPs but has consistently lacked a plan B when things are not going his way.
He is also so focused on systems and structures that he stifles the natural flair and talent of individuals, which is why I am concerned for Pou.

Last year we surprised a few sides and got out of the blocks early but look what happened once sides figured out how to play us.
We started last year really well then faded and then came up against a few sides who had little left to play for and dropped off about 5% which is all it takes.

Hopefully I am wrong in my assessment, but I am yet to see anything that makes me believe we are suddenly in the top echelon of the competition.

[The Fireman]

seeing that we played finals last year and now have a more improved side I can't see how anyone could say we wont make the 8 .

Members back and Firing, Henry and the natural improvement of some our young stars .

[Yorkeys]

seeing that we played finals last year and now have a more improved side I can't see how anyone could say we wont make the 8 .

Members back and Firing, Henry and the natural improvement of some our young stars .

Well:
Tempting fate is a tried an true way of invoking sub optimal things.
More injuries or just the current level of bleed
We don't have a dominant personality amongst the forwards to instill composure and discipline
Others sides will likely improve just as much as us, some will go backwards, but where the net result falls will impact us
The draw, bounce of the ball, umpiring interpretations (see Adelaide), how we cope as a footy club when the inevitable slump/bad run happens, scandals, internal ructions.
I mention all this while lighting another candle on my Saints shrine and sacrificing another IPA hazy ale to the footy gods, and to try to distract fate so it doesn't think we are tempting it. Even though I am so excited about our prospects.
Go Sainters!

[Life Long Saint]

If we lose Marshall, then all bets are off!

[Otiman]

I'm ready to call myself out on this and admit defeat now.

Not sure if any of the journos above could have predicted the magnitude of the slide and the pressure heaped on us as a result.

Squiggle now has us 15th on 8 wins and a 3% chance of making the 8.

[SteeleSaints]

Well they media pundits got it right we over acheived last year. I'm sure it would have been different if we had a full list fit and firing to start the year, but now the entire club have lost confidence. No coming back from our current position, we are not making a mid year revival. We will be lucky to win another 3-4 games IMO.