Crystal ball Rnd 1 2024

[CQ SAINT]

Dow has been starved for opportunity in a team that had no problem obtaining players and picks while he developed.

While Seb came to prominence in team that was losing a star-studed midfield at 22 he was way out on the outside with 66% uncontested.

At 22, Seb broke out was getting 85% game time and 29 touches.

Dow has been getting 16 disposals from 55% in a much better midfield than what Seb played in when he was 22.

In 2017, Richo believed we were ready to hatchet Montagna and Riewoldt and open a window. Lol

[shanegrambeau]

m 5

In 2017, Richo believed we were ready to hatchet Montagna and Riewoldt and open a window. Lol

2017 mid-season
Halftime vs Richmond

Has there ever been a bigger retrospective sense of a false-dawn?

Stats here
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/match- ... FL20171606

Six weeks later we were clobbered by them by 41

[Yorkeys]

In 2017, Richo believed we were ready to hatchet Montagna and Riewoldt and open a window. Lol

In 2023 Richo believed he was managing Melbourne. That's going well too.

[Scollop]

B: Stocker, Howard, Wilkie
HB: NWM, Battle, Sinclair
C: Wood, Dow, Henry
HF: Hill, Hayes, Sharman
F: Butler, King, Membrey

Foll: Marshall, Steele, Owens

Int: Crouch, Phillipou, Windy, Clark,
Sub : Hotton

No room for Ross, Webster, Caminitti or Higgins?

I think Webster, Stocker and Paton (Windy could also play) are all fighting for the same position. And although I've loved Webster for a long time, I saw a couple of small indications this year the suggested old man time is starting to catch up with him. I also honestly think Stocker would be good value for short bursts through the middle.

I think Dow takes Ross's spot. So if he plays he takes the spot of one of the young guys, and at the moment I'd love to get as much game time into them as possible. Ross will be a valuable member of the squad throughout the season. I wouldn't hesitate to pick him in the wet.

Caminitti needs time, and I think Hayes is better at the moment. As we saw in GWS final Caminitti needs to learn how to separate the defenders and not always draw his defender to a potential one on one contest and turn it into a pack.

And finally you could argue Higgins should be in the team, and I wouldn't disagree. But who misses out??? Phillipou.... Membrey... Sharman...

I agree on Dow taking one of the spots from one of the senior regulars. We must play Dow in the centre and play him as a first choice midfielder, otherwise what was the point of recruiting him?

Dow is not a forward or a winger. If SOS and Lyon truly believe he has upside, then the only possible way to bring out the best in him is to give him that opportunity.

How can we go with the same structure and line up and expect to improve?

Crouch played every single game last year. He showed that he is an accumulator but both he and Sebby tend to dominate possessions without being game breakers... they are generally not seen as match winners.

Young players gain confidence developing their craft in the seniors. Some of them are also still developing their fitness base, so obviously both Seb and Crouch will still be important contributors in a marathon season.

I'm hoping Dow, Owens, Pou, Windy, Clark and possibly Hotton eventually take more and more midfield minutes off Crouch and Seb.

[shanegrambeau]

I already feel Dow is being set up to fail.

Talk about pressure

He’s got to be our midfield savior

It wasn’t that long ago you would be derided for questioning our midfield

Now it is as plain as daylight that our midfield is mediocre

And somehow Dow is gonna be Mr Fix it!

Well he may, may he well, and he may well!

But meantime, talk about expectations

If they throw him to the wolves at the first centre bounce if the season, let’s say a prayer for mercy.

[Vortex]

I predict we will only win 2 games in the first half of the season and Brother Teffers will be sinking the boots into any player recruited before his blow up doll reached full pressure.

[B.M]

What is the definition of a game breaker or match winner?

Would that be a player who is BOG in victories?

I believe both Crouch and Ross have done that numerous times during their career so far. Both B&F winners. Both of them will be 200 gamers both made AA squads. They are not top echelon mids like Cripps, Neale Or Bontempelli but they are very good AFL footballers

Steele is our A Grade mid
Hopefully Owens might be? He’s raw but has something
Phillipou is still a bit away from being a good AFL player

If Dow was an A Grader he wouldn’t have been outside of Carlton’s best 22

[Scollop]

There was too much expectation on Paddy Dow early in his career.

His coaches and his team mates lost confidence in him playing the role in 2020, along with the fact that Carlton brought in established players to replace youngsters taking too long to develop (i.e. club was under pressure from its fans). So I think a combination of those things worked against him.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/497517/hes- ... lues-pupil

That’s a tough call on a 19 year old. He tried to fight his way back but he was already tainted by a former Carlton player and a legend of the game.

Perhaps some parallels with Billings, although Billings had it easier. Billings wasn’t thrown into the middle like Dow was from the word go.

Carlton coaches in Bolton and Teague were under pressure. Carlton’s thirst to become relevant and play finals meant they wanted established players and they traded in a stack of free agents from other clubs.

Most of the guys they brought in were full time or part time mids. As we know, Carlton went on a shopping spree with Matthew Kennedy, Zac Williams, Jack Martin, George Hewitt, and Adam Cera. I think even Mitch McGovern and Nic Newman have played as mids or on the wing.

[Scollop]

What is the definition of a game breaker or match winner?

Would that be a player who is BOG in victories?

Best on ground in who’s eyes? It depends on whether you value an accumulator of possessions versus a player who turns a game or a player involved in several key moments like taking contested marks or several saving marks deep in defence or someone scoring multiple goals.

It’s why Cyril Rioli and Bobby Hill have won Norm Smith Medals. Same with Brian Lake

There have been several occasions when the majority of people have given a player bog simply because they were the highest possession getter. Crouch had some outstanding games in 2023. If Crouch or Seb take crucial marks, or create multiple turnovers through their tackles or if they kick goals ….as well as racking up possessions then it’s a no brainer.

I think best on ground should be reserved for players who lift their team mates with outstanding efforts at key moments. When someone has the ability to do that consistently in a game, then they should get the chocolates over the bloke who racks up disposals.

I remember plenty of people including myself giving Marshall best on ground, but others saw Jack Steven or Seb Ross as best because of their disposal numbers.

I remember in 2021 giving DMac best on ground votes or Josh Battle bog votes when most people basically ignored these two. I thought courage and toughness got us over the line and was the difference between winning and losing.

[SaintPav]

I predict we will only win 2 games in the first half of the season and Brother Teffers will be sinking the boots into any player recruited before his blow up doll reached full pressure.

I hope his blow up doll is non stick!

[Vortex]

I predict we will only win 2 games in the first half of the season and Brother Teffers will be sinking the boots into any player recruited before his blow up doll reached full pressure.

I hope his blow up doll is non stick!

I just imagined something quite distressing and now I cant unsee it

[saintsRrising]

Now trading is done ( pick swaps can still happen) i thought i would start the Rnd 1 best 22 discussion.

I have used the following parameters to get to this:
- expected natural improvement after another pre season
- fit list (unlikely but can hope)
- older guys early round may be a little behind others on basis of lasting the full year ( Ross probably only one here).

B: Stocker, Howard, Wilkie
HB: NWM, Battle, Sinclair
C: Wood, Crouch, Hill
HF: Henry, Membrey, Sharman
F: Butler, King, Higgins

Foll: Marshall, Steele, Owens

Int: Phillipou, Windy, Clark, Webster
Sub : Dow

Question marks:
Membrey - if not right to play then options are - Caminiti, or Hayes
Ross - could easily be in front of Windy , Phillipou.
Went Stocker over Paton
Cordy and Van Es back up big defenders
Always someone pops up in pre season and gets game rnd 1 unexpected like Brynes last year - Allison? (must be closing on record for most years on a list without a game),

For Round 1 I would be very surprised if Dow was not in the starting 22.

Lyon and Co were chasing him from the middle of this year.


Hayes I have no idea on where he is currently at and how he is rated by Lyon and Co, but how he goes in the pre-season will be interesting. Depending on all of that he may be a chance for Round 1..

[saintsRrising]

And somehow Dow is gonna be Mr Fix it!

.

He is just one of the changes:

Henry will also play midfield, though probably not as much.

They are chasing more young mids - but this is probably a 3 year draft project

As Owens and the Poo mature they will probably get more midfield minutes, along with Windy.

[mad saint guy]

Rather than trying to guess the team, this is the lineup that I want to see.

B: Wilkie, Howard, Stocker
HB: NWM, Battle, Sinclair
C: Hill, Steele, Wood
HF: Higgins, Sharman, Owens
F: Butler, King, Membrey

Foll: Marshall, Crouch, Windhager
Int: Dow, Phillipou, Clark, Henry
Sub: Hayes


We really lack a second ruck option so I'd bring Hayes on early in the third to give Marshall a rest. Owens and Sharman to pinch hit as needed prior to that.

[Vortex]

They are chasing more young mids - but this is probably a 3 year draft project

This really is the main strategy available to a poor club like ours, and in the context of the debate on Dow, what other choices did we have other than Dow to bring in midfielders who could possibly improve us in that part of the ground. Dow was good get on that basis alone, all we can do now is see how he performs for us.

Recruiting through the draft as our core strategy with some diversity around that to trawl for the diamonds in the rough has to become the cornerstone of list management.

[groupie1]

Now trading is done ( pick swaps can still happen) i thought i would start the Rnd 1 best 22 discussion.

I have used the following parameters to get to this:
- expected natural improvement after another pre season
- fit list (unlikely but can hope)
- older guys early round may be a little behind others on basis of lasting the full year ( Ross probably only one here).

B: Stocker, Howard, Wilkie
HB: NWM, Battle, Sinclair
C: Wood, Crouch, Hill
HF: Henry, Membrey, Sharman
F: Butler, King, Higgins

Foll: Marshall, Steele, Owens

Int: Phillipou, Windy, Clark, Webster
Sub : Dow

Question marks:
Membrey - if not right to play then options are - Caminiti, or Hayes
Ross - could easily be in front of Windy , Phillipou.
Went Stocker over Paton
Cordy and Van Es back up big defenders
Always someone pops up in pre season and gets game rnd 1 unexpected like Brynes last year - Allison? (must be closing on record for most years on a list without a game),

Huge shakeup

Stocker, Van Ness, Battle
NWM, Wilkie, Sinclair
Henry, Steele, Hill
Collard, Hayes, Wilson
Sharman, King, Butler
FOLL: Marshall, Crouch, Owens
INT: Windhager, Philipou, Crouch, Keeler
EM: Butler, Membrey, Wood, Jones

[bobmurray]

Now trading is done ( pick swaps can still happen) i thought i would start the Rnd 1 best 22 discussion.

I have used the following parameters to get to this:
- expected natural improvement after another pre season
- fit list (unlikely but can hope)
- older guys early round may be a little behind others on basis of lasting the full year ( Ross probably only one here).

B: Stocker, Howard, Wilkie
HB: NWM, Battle, Sinclair
C: Wood, Crouch, Hill
HF: Henry, Membrey, Sharman
F: Butler, King, Higgins

Foll: Marshall, Steele, Owens

Int: Phillipou, Windy, Clark, Webster
Sub : Dow

Question marks:
Membrey - if not right to play then options are - Caminiti, or Hayes
Ross - could easily be in front of Windy , Phillipou.
Went Stocker over Paton
Cordy and Van Es back up big defenders
Always someone pops up in pre season and gets game rnd 1 unexpected like Brynes last year - Allison? (must be closing on record for most years on a list without a game),

Huge shakeup

Stocker, Van Ness, Battle
NWM, Wilkie, Sinclair
Henry, Steele, Hill
Collard, Hayes, Wilson
Sharman, King, Butler
FOLL: Marshall, Crouch, Owens
INT: Windhager, Philipou, Crouch, Keeler
EM: Butler, Membrey, Wood, Jones

Van Ness, is he related to Eliot ?

[saynta]

Now trading is done ( pick swaps can still happen) i thought i would start the Rnd 1 best 22 discussion.

I have used the following parameters to get to this:
- expected natural improvement after another pre season
- fit list (unlikely but can hope)
- older guys early round may be a little behind others on basis of lasting the full year ( Ross probably only one here).

B: Stocker, Howard, Wilkie
HB: NWM, Battle, Sinclair
C: Wood, Crouch, Hill
HF: Henry, Membrey, Sharman
F: Butler, King, Higgins

Foll: Marshall, Steele, Owens

Int: Phillipou, Windy, Clark, Webster
Sub : Dow

Question marks:
Membrey - if not right to play then options are - Caminiti, or Hayes
Ross - could easily be in front of Windy , Phillipou.
Went Stocker over Paton
Cordy and Van Es back up big defenders
Always someone pops up in pre season and gets game rnd 1 unexpected like Brynes last year - Allison? (must be closing on record for most years on a list without a game),

Huge shakeup

Stocker, Van Ness, Battle
NWM, Wilkie, Sinclair
Henry, Steele, Hill
Collard, Hayes, Wilson
Sharman, King, Butler
FOLL: Marshall, Crouch, Owens
INT: Windhager, Philipou, Crouch, Keeler
EM: Butler, Membrey, Wood, Jones

Van Ness, is he related to Eliot ?

[Scollop]

groupie1 seems to think there are two Butlers on the list

That's the second criticism (after misspelling Van Es) ...before even looking at who groupie1 has left out of the team.

My brain hurts having a conversation with nuff nuffs

[Otiman]

Neither first round recruit will play Round 1.

Need an extra preseason in the gym.

So do I, but for other reasons.

[Life Long Saint]

Neither first round recruit will play Round 1.

Need an extra preseason in the gym.

Thought the same about Phillipou given he was a young age recruit.
If you're good enough, you're big enough.

[Yorkeys]

[

Van Ness, is he related to Eliot ?
[/quote]

Nuh, confusing with Van Diesel and Lachy Ness. Who apparently is a monster.