Will Paddy Dow and Liam Henry make us better?

[Vortex]

Am I understanding this correctly?
Is Dow a similar version of Bytel but with leg speed?

Hopefully Dow is more AFL than VFL which unfortunately was the issue with Bytel.

[cwrcyn]

When I first saw Dow play, he actually reminded me of Lenny Hayes. I'm being serious.

[Scollop]

If this thread is serious we need to talk about who Dow will be replacing at centre bounces.

Did he come to St Kilda to try and become a part of the starting line up in the centre or is he going to be a part time midfielder similar to the way we use Hunter Clark or like Gresham was used?

If 2023 was truly a year of exploration, there has to be structural changes made and not just tinkering at the fringes.

Liam Henry gives us options. We have several players like Hill, Wood, Owens, Windhager and others including Steele and Seb Ross who can play multiple roles. I think Dow was recruited to play purely as a mid. That's where he will play and thrive.

I believe Dow should be given an opportunity to replace Brad Crouch. I don't think we can rely on a mid who gets 2 clearances in total for a full game. That was Brad Crouch's output for the game in Round 24 and again for the game against GWS...in a final!

We know that Crouch attended far more centre bounces than any other pure mid in our team. Yes he had some brilliant games and yes he was a brilliant contributor overall for the year....but we also know that Crouch has a poor conversion for clearance based on stoppages attended.

Clark, Owens and Steele have better clearance conversion ratios than Sebby and Brad.
I think Crouch and Seb Ross have a job ahead of them to show the coaches they deserve to be
named in the starting 22

I think Steele is a far better midfielder than Crouch. Steele at full fitness showed he can compete against quality opposition. Clark at full fitness and with perhaps some improved running capacity also squeezes Crouch out.

So for me...my preferred starting line at centre bounce for Round 1 is RoMa, Steele, Dow and Hunter Clark. I think Seb Ross can play a role on the wing but Crouch can't.

So for me...Dow improves us if he takes Crouch's spot rather than being a replacement for Gresham

[Scollop]

But, I've said it before and I'll say it again. It's a long season and you need to fully utilise the playing list if you want to be able to compete at your best every week.

No one should be immune from being dropped or managed and it creates healthy competition for spots. I doubt whether RTB will drop Crouch or Sebby...but I hope he doesn't just leave them in the team for 3 weeks if they're not performing

I don't believe it's in the best interests of the team as a whole if you have a midfielder like Dow or Crouch or Seb Ross playing 120 minutes for 22 games of home and away.

Guys like Hill, RoMa and Wood are running machines so in some cases it's a different story

I think our older guys like Seb and Crouch should be managed better to allow them to perform at their ultimate peak at the pointy end...if we can make finals again

[shanegrambeau]

Billings, Coffield, Gresh
0n a scale of ‘100=the complete player”, I guess we lose 40+50+60 = 150 points

That’s a lot of talent and experience to lose in one punch

But maybe they were past their best, or flawed and so on

And so maybe they will even be a liability at that their new clubs

We have to hope (unsavory to admit maybe - cos, ‘we wish them the best’)

In Henry and Dow, what have we got.
On the 100 scale?
Henry 65 ?
Dow 55?
Total = 120

So it looks like a net loss.

Except we all expect / hope that Henry and Dow go up.
Maybe Henry is an 80? Maybe Dow a 70?

And maybe, after another season, those players leaving are worth even less. JB in particular?

So based on what we have here, I think in Dow, we have another Crouch? And in Henry a more than good enough replacement for the diminished output of DMac, Ross, Jones etc.. ?

One more player would have made it sweeter, but based on the ins and outs, in a rational sense, it’s hard to argue. As a fan, I am way more upbeat.

[B.M]

How are you past your best at 28, 26 and 23?

I think they were ok to lose but will all be excellent at other clubs and will be bargains

Gresham compensation at tad unders imo - mid 20s pick
Billings trade woeful - future 3rd and paying more than half his salary
Coffield we basically got Dow and a slide from 35-40 that is a bit unders


Dow we got for Coffield so we lost the trade just
Henry we got for slightly unders

Both our players do have upside though and we could end up winning plus DP for Gresham could end up a good one?

Only time will tell

[damienc]

Billings, Coffield, Gresh
0n a scale of ‘100=the complete player”, I guess we lose 40+50+60 = 150 points

That’s a lot of talent and experience to lose in one punch

But maybe they were past their best, or flawed and so on

And so maybe they will even be a liability at that their new clubs

We have to hope (unsavory to admit maybe - cos, ‘we wish them the best’)

In Henry and Dow, what have we got.
On the 100 scale?
Henry 65 ?
Dow 55?
Total = 120

So it looks like a net loss.

Except we all expect / hope that Henry and Dow go up.
Maybe Henry is an 80? Maybe Dow a 70?

And maybe, after another season, those players leaving are worth even less. JB in particular?

So based on what we have here, I think in Dow, we have another Crouch? And in Henry a more than good enough replacement for the diminished output of DMac, Ross, Jones etc.. ?

One more player would have made it sweeter, but based on the ins and outs, in a rational sense, it’s hard to argue. As a fan, I am way more upbeat.

No doubt Brad Crouch is an accumulator of the footy. But there are two aspects to his game that do not serve us well.

1) He is not a clearance specialist. He doesn’t give us first use consistently. Sometimes not at all.

2) He gets a lot of possessions but he doesn’t hurt the opposition when he has the footy.

No doubt in my mind Dow and Henry were recruited to address that weakness we have at stoppages.

My fondest hope is they will get the job done.

[Beno88]

Stocker wasn’t that impressive as the season got older, did he even end up playing in the final?

Yes. Started as sub, came on after halftime and had an instant impact. Played well.

[B.M]

Seriously underrating Crouch

A key factor in us playing finals!

Is he the new Seb Ross???

[B.M]

Crouch

Averaged
27 disposals
13 contested
6 clearances
7 tackles

18 Brownlow votes

That’s an enormous season

[samoht]

Crouch is probably better than Dow at throw ins, along the boundary line (where you can use your body against an opponent to get to the drop) ... but Dow would have him covered at the crucial centre clearances, where leg speed and quick hands/quick reflexes are important.

They can complement each other.

Dow will average 500 metres gained - he doesn't kick the ball sideways or backwards - he doesn't choose the safe option (which affects his disposal efficiency, but it makes us less predictable, too).

[B.M]

He’s also not guaranteed a game, like he wasn’t at Carlton

I think he’s got upside

But he’s relatively unproven

Especially compared to Steele, Ross, Crouch who are seasoned pros

Then factor in Jones, Clark, Owens. Windhager

[samoht]

Of course.

We're just looking at possibilities - he's averaged 350 metres gained and 16 possessions from 53% game time, in a strong Carlton midfield - I'm just extrapolating from that, and the real possibility that he'll be afforded more game time.The possible upside - as you say.

I'm bullish on the possibility, though.

[Vortex]

Paddy Dow will be Crouch's boot cleaner initially and Paddy will be honoured.

If I was Paddy I'd refer to him as Mr Crouch.

[Scollop]

Crouch

Averaged
27 disposals
13 contested
6 clearances
7 tackles

18 Brownlow votes

That’s an enormous season

He had an ‘enormous’ season no doubt - compared to some of his St Kilda peers…but he isn’t in our best 3 midfielders. He finished equal 6th in the Trevor Barker Medal. He’s a work horse. Great role model around the club too.

However, it remains true that he is our second worst mid when it comes to his ratio for centre clearances per centre bounce attendance. He only beats Seb Ross in this metric.

CC/CBA for Crouch was 11% for 2023. Paddy Dow’s ratio was 20%. That’s nearly double the effectiveness of Crouch. That is one of the most important jobs of a player who is considered to be an inside mid.

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_playe ... ?ID=230223

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_playe ... ID=1407810

Also, just a correction regarding total clearances and some clarification regarding the breakdown. Brad actually averages just on 2 centre clearances per game and just over 3.4 stoppage clearances per game. That is a tick under 5.5 total. It is closer to 5 than it is to 6.

Brad Crouch was moved to half forward or the wing in a few games because of his ineffectiveness at centre clearance. This helped his stats with more uncontested possessions (leading and becoming a marking option and also being the option as receiver/outside mid). It improved his kicking efficiency but his overall kicking disposal efficiency is amongst the worst in the league. It was 55% in 2023. 50% in 2022.

Another key metric that cannot be overlooked are his clangers per game. Crouch averaged 4.4 per game in 2023. Dow was 1.9

The Brownlow votes thing is funny. Tom Liberatore is notoriously a low vote getter. He caught the eye of the umps this year but he still scored less votes than Brad Crouch. Tom 17, Brad 18. I know who I’d rather have in my team

[Vortex]

Now that the umps have had their phones taken off them on match days the Saintsational votes would be more reliable than Brownlow votes.

[Devilhead]

Just imagine a Carlton v Saints GF and Dow tearing them apart on our way to a 6+ goal win

One can dream!!

[B.M]

I don’t give a s*** what you say

Brad Crouch had a great season in my eyes - terrific footballer

Hard at it, finds the ball and tackles

Love to do a stats compare with Libba - who was in an ‘elite’ midfield- that we flogged and they flopped!

Put Bont in our midfield and see if we’d finish 11th

[Vortex]

Just imagine a Carlton v Saints GF and Dow tearing them apart on our way to a 6+ goal win

One can dream!!

In my dream we play Carlron in the GF and it's a draw and we play extra time and Ross Lyon forgets Paddy Dow has been on the bench for 2 quarters and Lenny Hayes punches Ross Lyon out cold and puts Paddy back on who then kicks the winning point from a shanked bomb into the forward line...ironically in the exact same spot where Barry Breen shanked his kick for the winning point in 66.

[Scollop]

Now that the umps have had their phones taken off them on match days the Saintsational votes would be more reliable than Brownlow votes.

Saintsational rated Crouch a lot higher than the coaches did for the Trevor Barker Medal.

We had Crouch on the podium in the Saintsational award. He scored 36 votes versus Hill who the esteemed panel gave 13 votes. Hill finished equal 6th with Crouch in the Best and Fairest.

Are you saying professional coaches who dissect and analyse every second of play know less about footy than the average mug here or at the match...who by the way...spends as much time lining up for beers than they do watching the game?

[Scollop]

I don’t give a s*** what you say

Brad Crouch had a great season in my eyes - terrific footballer

Hard at it, finds the ball and tackles

Love to do a stats compare with Libba - who was in an ‘elite’ midfield- that we flogged and they flopped!

Put Bont in our midfield and see if we’d finish 11th

You should've quit when you were defending Crouch vs Dow. Go ahead and do your comparisons but try not to just look at possessions, otherwise you might get Treloar rating higher than Bont

I didn't give a s*** how many times you wanted to pump up Seb Ross

I didn't give a s*** how many times you wanted to defend Jack Billings

Therefore...

I don't give a s*** how many times you want to pump up Brad Crouch.

It's simple. The player ratings on key metrics like disposals, DE, clearances, i50's, SI, tackles, intercepts etc.. are available. It's very clear which mids are rated.

Libba vs Crouch is no contest. I think his brother Matty gets a higher player rating

Bont sits at 1.Libba at number 2. Jack Sinclair 8. Rowan at 14. Steele 65. Wood 71.

Mich Owens is rated 107

Brad Crouch is rated at 111.

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html?year=2023

[Vortex]

Now that the umps have had their phones taken off them on match days the Saintsational votes would be more reliable than Brownlow votes.

Saintsational rated Crouch a lot higher than the coaches did for the Trevor Barker Medal.

We had Crouch on the podium in the Saintsational award. He scored 36 votes versus Hill who the esteemed panel gave 13 votes. Hill finished equal 6th with Crouch in the Best and Fairest.

Are you saying professional coaches who dissect and analyse every second of play know less about footy than the average mug here or at the match...who by the way...spends as much time lining up for beers than they do watching the game?

You make beer sound unimportant in the process.

But I was more suggesting the credibility of Browlow medals are almost meaningless with comparison to say a coaches award especially moreso since the AFL banned the umps having access to their phones on match day. I mean have a look at how bad the umps cocked up voting this year in about 40 games.

[Scollop]

the average mug ...who ...spends as much time lining up for beers as they do watching the game?

You make beer sound unimportant in the process.

[B.M]

did the top 5 players in the Brownlow not have good seasons?

It isn’t obviously the only way to measure. But generally to win one or vote well you need to be a good player who’s done well.

Are Robert Harvey’s Brownlow’s meaningless? Are his 208 votes worthless

No subjective awards are perfect even B&Fs - because apparently Seb Ross shouldn’t have won two?!
BTW - Brad Crouch has won a B&F

I thought Crouch had an excellent season
As shown by a number of metrics

To suggest Paddy Dow is a better AFL player right now is bizarre imo - he was a fringe player.

[takeaway]

I don’t give a s*** what you say

Brad Crouch had a great season in my eyes - terrific footballer

Hard at it, finds the ball and tackles

Love to do a stats compare with Libba - who was in an ‘elite’ midfield- that we flogged and they flopped!

Put Bont in our midfield and see if we’d finish 11th

You should've quit when you were defending Crouch vs Dow. Go ahead and do your comparisons but try not to just look at possessions, otherwise you might get Treloar rating higher than Bont

I didn't give a s*** how many times you wanted to pump up Seb Ross

I didn't give a s*** how many times you wanted to defend Jack Billings

Therefore...

I don't give a s*** how many times you want to pump up Brad Crouch.

It's simple. The player ratings on key metrics like disposals, DE, clearances, i50's, SI, tackles, intercepts etc.. are available. It's very clear which mids are rated.

Libba vs Crouch is no contest. I think his brother Matty gets a higher player rating

Bont sits at 1.Libba at number 2. Jack Sinclair 8. Rowan at 14. Steele 65. Wood 71.

Mich Owens is rated 107

Brad Crouch is rated at 111.

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html?year=2023

So you’re still on a campaign to replace Crouchy Scolops? Bytel didn’t do the job for you so now your man is Dow?

I would have thought Dow was brought in to give a bit of zip and breakaway speed around clearances, which the Saints lack and generally is not one of Crouch’s strengths. Different player to Crouch, you need both types. If Dow can become more consistent, should complement Crouch rather than replace him. Still has to prove himself though, which he didn’t do at Carlton.

Would the Saints have made finals if Crouch didn’t have a very good year? Probably not. Very good player, at every contest, tackling, harassing, and extracting, has more impact than the tabloid fans notice. Crouch gets his share of clearances, but bearing in mind Roma is not the greatest tap ruckman, how many potential opposition clearances/breakaways did Crouch also negate/stop? Is that in your rafflewheel ratings? Check Crouch’s contested possessions, tackles, pressure acts, bet they are well up there, and well ahead of Dow’s limited output.

You may not value brownlow votes, but I do, 18 this year, and 10 last year shows his value. I think Dow has potential, and if he reaches it, should fit in nicely with Crouchy, who I hope can have another good year. Our best midfielder this season.