HS article 3/11 The List Manager - StK

[theoracle]

The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over St Kilda’s current group, its future and everything in between
St Kilda coach Ross Lyon is determined to avoid a quick fix, instead plotting a very deliberate path back to the top. These are the draft, trade and free agency plans involved.
Jon Ralph
5 min read
November 3, 2023 - 6:00AM
News Corp Australia Sports Newsroom

In the hour after St Kilda’s season came to a grinding halt against the Giants, Ross Lyon spoke of savage finals lessons and his determination to avoid a quick fix in his second coming at Moorabbin.
Lyon labelled it a “great finals audit” on a day where GWS showcased a brilliant defence (elite stoppers Sam Taylor and Connor Idun) with rebound the Saints couldn’t stop (Lachie Ash, Lachie Whitfield) and a star-studded forward line full of menacing smalls and role-playing forwards.
Even as the St Kilda midfield broke even in pure numbers (clearances, contested possession), the class of the GWS onball unit shone out as Josh Kelly and Finn Callaghan hit the scoreboard (three total goals) and Tom Green helped himself to 35 touches.
St Kilda must bridge the gap on talent against GWS to be a top-four contender in coming seasons.
And, yet, as much as it was a sobering reality check, for Lyon the message was to use GWS as a template – build slowly, back in the draft, eschew hasty or instant remedies.
As Gillon McLachlan told him, “Don’t try and build it in 12 months, build it over the longer term”.
So the Saints’ direction is clear – back in the kids, build an elite development structure, coach them well, don’t fix all the issues in one off-season by wasting valuable cap space.

TRADE PERIOD
7/10
Ross Lyon would have piggybacked Jade Gresham to the Hangar if it helped secure an end-of-first-round compensation selection.
In the end, a week of negotiations delivered St Kilda that pick and a critical second first-round selection.
For a club keen to get back into the draft, it was one of the steals of the entire period.
From there, the Saints effectively turned injury-prone Nick Coffield into Paddy Dow, moving on a player with 52 games in six years for the inside midfielder they believe has the explosive element their midfield so desperately needs.
Fremantle’s Liam Henry arrived for a future second-rounder and, while he missed the Dockers’ top 10 in the best-and-fairest, he is a 22-year-old former top 10 pick who has only just scratched the surface of his potential.
And, while the Saints off-loaded Jack Billings (and some of his salary), they hope to use the future Demons third-rounder in a deep 2024 draft and genuinely felt he deserved a second chance after a decade at the club.
Lyon and list boss Steve Silvagni did what they promised – brought in players in the right demographic, didn’t swing for the fences, and arguably won out of every one of those deals.

LIST HOLES
Let’s start with the overwhelming positives.
St Kilda has one of footy’s most dominant ruckmen (Rowan Marshall), a key forward to build a side around (Max King), a miserly lockdown defender (Cal Wilkie), a match-winning elite kick (Jack Sinclair) and a bunch of kids who could be A graders.
Mitch Owens, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Mattaes Phillipou have All Australian upside, while Anthony Caminiti is a raw, exciting colt.
But the Saints do have a long list of players who turn 28 next year – or are already there – so can they maintain the rage long enough to open a flag window when the kids are peaking in 2026 onwards?
Those turning 28 in the next year include Dougal Howard, Cal Wilkie, Jack Steele, with Sinclair 29 in February, Tim Membrey 30 in May and Brad Hill 31 in July.
Every St Kilda fan knows this midfield needs polish and speed.
Of the leading clearance winners, Brad Crouch kicked at 55 per cent (with 285 metres gained per game), Steele went at 61 per cent (281 metres gained), Seb Ross 50 per cent (336 metres gained) and Hunter Clark 58 per cent (240 metres gained).
It is why Henry will spend some of his time over summer training as an inside mid, even though the plan is for Sinclair (73 per cent efficiency) to play a similar blend of half back and midfield in 2024.

DRAFT STRATEGY
St Kilda has two first-rounders for the first time in six years (with picks 13, 21 and 40) and is bullish about the draft, believing that, while the players are still showing some Covid lag from the 2020-21 years, it only increases the opportunity with canny selections.
The club has a very specific premiership vision that includes repeated and deep trips to the draft in coming seasons.
Given a reasonable balance of talls and smalls, Silvagni and Graeme Allan can commit to the cliche – best available.
There is still a decision to come on injury-prone defender Dan McKenzie, who could be delisted, re-signed or given the chance as a train-on for a summer rookie spot.
UNDER THE PUMP
Jack Steele played 21 games and endured an early-season broken collarbone and a grumbly achilles, but finished ninth in the best-and-fairest.
Only he knows how much his body impacted him, but in a thin St Kilda midfield the dual best-and-fairest winner must affect the course of matches.
His final was brilliant – 38 touches, eight clearances.
For St Kilda to improve, he needs to lead this midfield pack.

PREMIERSHIP WINDOW
Owens has played 30 games, Caminiti 18, Wanganeen-Milera 41, Marcus Windhager 37. All of them need to double those games tallies before a flag window opens.
There are just too many excellent teams – Carlton, Collingwood, Brisbane – to sneak a flag.
AFL PLAYER RATINGS FOR 2024 AND A 2025 BOLTER
Sinclair (8th), Marshall (14th), Steele (62nd), Wood (68th), Wilkie (84th), Owens (103rd), Crouch (108th).
Wanganeen-Milera was ranked 165th. Watch his final again (23 touches, 524 metres gained). He is smart and relentless and backs himself to execute risky kicks that set up the Saints attacking thrusts. A player who has Corey Enright as a coach and mentor can one day, in the not-too-distant future, be the most dangerous and damaging half back in the game.

CAP SPACE FOR 2025
Max King will soon be a million dollar-plus player, Steele is well paid Jack Sinclair finally got his right whack, locked away to 2027 in July this year.
But St Kilda has vast scope to hit the free agency market next year or land a big fish in the trade space if the right opportunity presents.
Last year, it would have had to move on Hunter Clark if Jordan De Goey arrived for cap space, but the CBA rise means St Kilda is sitting pretty.
Lucrative deals for Zak Jones, Dan Hannebery, Coffield and BIllings are in the rear view mirror. It is launch mode …. when the time is right.

2024 TRADE TARGETS
Ben King will re-sign at the Suns, so the romance of him uniting with brother Max won’t happen.
A Cam Zurhaar type – 40 goals, 80 tackles, relentless aggression – would appeal to play alongside King, Caminiti, Cooper Sharman and the kids in Owens and Phillipou. He is a 2024 free agent.
Marshall thrives on the workload but with Jack Hayes, Tom Campbell and youngster Max Heath as his back-ups the Saints are thin on rucks.
Gold Coast’s Ned Moyle, out of contract next year, would be a perfect successor but might believe he can take over from Jarrod Witts before academy prospect Ethan Read emerges.
Imagine slotting Changkuoth Jiath into half back to release Sinclair into the midfield, but he will surely re-sign early in the year at the Hawks.

TRADE BAIT
Dougal Howard, Tim Membrey and Josh Battle are the trio of talls out of contract, with Battle a free agent, Howard out of contract after some 2023 trade whispers and Membrey turning 30 with a degenerative knee issue.
Battle is a key player, hugely popular off the field and as a cultural driver, and the priority target to lock away early.
Sharman and Wood will also need to be secured, but there is unlikely to be a Jade Gresham-style contract conundrum for the Saints.

ST KILDA CRYSTAL BALL
2024 FINISH
11th. Could easily replicate this year’s finals finish but the 6-13 zone of teams is so cluttered. Two finals campaigns since 2011 so it‘s harder to trust St Kilda than others.
BEST AND FAIREST
Jack Sinclair for the three-peat (2022, 2023, 2024) even if St Kilda believes it will still be splitting time in defence and on ball rather than as a bone fide midfielder.
2024 LEADING GOAL KICKER
Max King. He’s already made an impressive recovery from his shoulder surgery so he’ll hit the ground running in pre-season.
PLAYER ON THE RISE
Cooper Sharman took four of his 14 contested marks in a 16-game season in the two-goal finals performance. He was magnificent. Can it be a launching pad for a 35-goal 2024 season?
PLAYER ON THE EDGE
Seb Ross has been a brilliant servant and two-time best-and-fairest winner but last year his kicking and scoreboard impact were both poor and he was no better than average in seven key Champion Data benchmarks. Can he overcome his hamstring issues to maintain the rage?

[B.M]

Since when has John Ralph become an ‘expert’?

Gone are the days when columnists reported news and reporters reported!

Let experts write opinion pieces

Guys like him and Barrett think they are in the AFL and their opinion matters!

Most of that is outside perception crap and has no insight. Could have be Len written by most posters on this site.

[Ghost Like]

Seems like a reasonable take on our list, where we sit currently and how best to set up our list. I think he nailed it, nothing particularly earth shattering but nothing ridiculously off the mark.

Thanks for posting Oracle.

[older saint]

Since when has John Ralph become an ‘expert’?

Gone are the days when columnists reported news and reporters reported!

Let experts write opinion pieces

Guys like him and Barrett think they are in the AFL and their opinion matters!

Most of that is outside perception crap and has no insight. Could have be Len written by most posters on this site.

Jon Ralph is an expert just ask him!

[Selhurst Saint]

He lost me with that summary when he rated Carlton an excellent team.

[Yorkeys]

Lot of words to say our forward line needs to improve towards semi functional quality rather than remaining a collection of dysfunctional wastrels, and that a couple of big, quick skillful mids would be nice.
Its not rocket science Jon (or ChatGPT), no matter how torturous the prose and flow of points suggests it might be.

[Life Long Saint]

He lost me with that summary when he rated Carlton an excellent team.

To be fair, they have a more talented list than we do. They have for years. Just been poorly coached over the journey.
Imagine if they could have convinced Ross to join them.

[Sanctorum]

The idea that Jon Ralph, or any other media commentator for that matter, is not entitled to express his opinion on teams is absolute rubbish, that's a legitimate part of their job and love or loathe him, Ralph has vast experience in the industry.

Whether or not supporters agree with his views is neither here nor there, we all have our own opinions. In respect to this particular article I believe that he is grossly under-estimating the St Kilda team's potential in 2024. I'm pretty sure most supporters will agree that St Kilda will field a much stronger lineup next year and should improve their place in the top 8, and personally believe that provided no key players are injured, top 4 is well within their reach.

[Life Long Saint]

The idea that Jon Ralph, or any other media commentator for that matter, is not entitled to express his opinion on teams is absolute rubbish, that's a legitimate part of their job and love or loathe him, Ralph has vast experience in the industry.

AFL journos that have never played at that level are, like me, students of the game. In fact I've probably been doing it longer than most of the journos writing opinion pieces today.
We watch, learn, and form opionions. Jon Ralph, and all like him have as much credibility as I do when it comes to team analysis.

I would place much more stock in the analysis of Gerard Healy, Dermott Brereton, Leigh Matthews, and others like them that I would in any journo like Mark Robinson, Jon Ralph, et al.

Journos are better placed to break stories as they have the contacts and skills to get access to information that others can't.

[Saintmike65]

Surprised Ralph made no mention of Windhager when promoting our young potential stars.
I’m hoping he’ll get more run with roles next season.

[markp]

That giants' game had been dropped down my St Kilda bad memory hole.

Nas and Sharman were bright points on a dark day.

Needless to say, players who can turn up for finals are gold.

[bobmurray]

Surprised Ralph made no mention of Windhager when promoting our young potential stars.
I’m hoping he’ll get more run with roles next season.

I am surprised he played 19 games in 2023, 3 as the sub, i thought he played a lot less than that.

I don't really remember how well he played in all of those games, did he dominate in any of them or did he fly under Ralph's radar ?

[SaintPav]

Our draft picks look like bird droppings compared to what Norf have been donated.

Idiots at the AFL haven’t heard of lagged effects….

IDIOTS

[Yorkeys]

Our draft picks look like bird droppings compared to what Norf have been donated.

Idiots at the AFL haven’t heard of lagged effects….

IDIOTS

This gross manipulation of the competition ranks with the treasure handed to Suns and Giants. Think Folau and the Broncos full back.
I was disappointed Gil never had to defend Israel's stance on the pride round. Poster boy a homophone. Oops.
Clearly AFL executives have not learned from history or appreciate they are not smart enough to finesse individual team success. Unintended consequences!
I want to see how the umpires treat North next season, benefit of 50/50s is an obvious next step once integrity is compromised.

[St Plugger]

That giants' game had been dropped down my St Kilda bad memory hole.

Nas and Sharman were bright points on a dark day.

Needless to say, players who can turn up for finals are gold.

This 100%!

[shanegrambeau]

Shiver me Timbers…..

Those turning 28 in the next year include Dougal Howard, Cal Wilkie, Jack Steele, with Sinclair 29 in February, Tim Membrey 30 in May and Brad Hill 31 in July.

Sincs 29?? Nup …say it ain’t so…
Membrey 30
Hill 31

Misprints all…

[samuraisaint]

Our draft picks look like bird droppings compared to what Norf have been donated.

Idiots at the AFL haven’t heard of lagged effects….

IDIOTS

So, what did North actually get?
One extra first rounder this year, and two next year, isn't it?

I think with Ziebell and Cunnington retired, and Goldstein and McKay traded to Essendon (not to mention losing Horne-Francis last year), they will really struggle to win games of footy for several seasons to come. This will inevitably lead to players wanting to leave and that is already happening.

Just had a look - this season they have picks #2, #3, #15, #17, #18, and #57.

Wow.

[samuraisaint]

I don't think we'll finish 11th next season. There are a few sides who will slide in 2024, and we are on an upward trajectory. Losing that final means that we will get a far easier fixture than we would have, had we finished top 6. We'll win more than we lose; of that I am certain.

[MC Gusto]

I thought it was a very reasonable article and well informed

Love he has identified Nas. Equally I agree with his summation of our midfield— those kicking stats are damning

[meher baba]

Pretty weird analysis.

First a whole bunch of positives. We made the finals in 2023. The club's done all the right things in the trade period. It's got some excellent young players who came on well in 2023. King and Steele will most likely be fully fit at the start of the season . We've got a good coach and also has Corey Enright doing great work in skilling up the backline. Some key players are getting on a bit, but only Hill is likely to be on the cusp of retirement.

And the verdict? Next season will be an enormous disappointment for us and we'll fall down the table to 11th.

Where would he predict we would finish if we didn't have all the positives listed above? 18th?

[Vortex]

Pretty weird analysis.

First a whole bunch of positives. We made the finals in 2023. The club's done all the right things in the trade period. It's got some excellent young players who came on well in 2023. King and Steele will most likely be fully fit at the start of the season . We've got a good coach and also has Corey Enright doing great work in skilling up the backline. Some key players are getting on a bit, but only Hill is likely to be on the cusp of retirement.

And the verdict? Next season will be an enormous disappointment for us and we'll fall down the table to 11th.

How would he predict we would finish if we didn't have all the positives listed above? 18th?

To be fair to Ralph, predicting we stuff things up is possibly one of the easiest tasks in footy journalism, in betting parlance..."that's value".

[meher baba]

I think he's far too inclined to leave Lyon's impact out of the equation. I'm not a total Lyon groupie like Teffers, but I recognise what he can do.

If we look at Lyon's coaching record: the first season is a bit of a struggle as the players get used to his style, and the team only goes reasonably well (our 2023 performance was better than he managed at the Saints in 2007 or Freo in 2012), The second season delivers a much better performance that takes a team to the PF (or in Freo's case, a GF). Then the high level of performance becomes even more consistent for the next two seasons (in terms of where teams finish in the regular season: finals are a slightly different matter). Then, in season 5, performance levels begin to fall away seemingly due to most players (other than freaks like Riewoldt and Hill) being unable to sustain the high intensity play that Lyon demands from them.

I known most media experts and possibly most Saints supporters would tell me I'm dreaming, but 'm expecting our performances to take a similar trajectory over the next few years. Getting teams with a bunch of ordinary players and a sprinkling of stars deep into finals series is what Lyon does. He's extremely good at it. He's an incredible force during the regular season: not so much in finals, where his inflexibility has been a continuing problem for him (as we saw again againt GWS with his continued use of Philippou - who should have been sub IMO - and his failure to put Cody forward and bring Howard into the backline, which might just about have won us the game). But he is a genuine super coach, and idiots like Ralph shouldn't write him off.  

[Yorkeys]

I think he's far too inclined to leave Lyon's impact out of the equation. I'm not a total Lyon groupie like Teffers, but I recognise what he can do.

If we look at Lyon's coaching record: the first season is a bit of a struggle as the players get used to his style, and the team only goes reasonably well (our 2023 performance was better than he managed at the Saints in 2007 or Freo in 2012), The second season delivers a much better performance that takes a team to the PF (or in Freo's case, a GF). Then the high level of performance becomes even more consistent for the next two seasons (in terms of where teams finish in the regular season: finals are a slightly different matter). Then, in season 5, performance levels begin to fall away seemingly due to most players (other than freaks like Riewoldt and Hill) being unable to sustain the high intensity play that Lyon demands from them.

I known most media experts and possibly most Saints supporters would tell me I'm dreaming, but 'm expecting our performances to take a similar trajectory over the next few years. Getting teams with a bunch of ordinary players and a sprinkling of stars deep into finals series is what Lyon does. He's extremely good at it. He's an incredible force during the regular season: not so much in finals, where his inflexibility has been a continuing problem for him (as we saw again againt GWS with his continued use of Philippou - who should have been sub IMO - and his failure to put Cody forward and bring Howard into the backline, which might just about have won us the game). But he is a genuine super coach, and idiots like Ralph shouldn't write him off.  

Good discussion.
I'd go slightly more towards acknowledging Ross is a close to genius coach. McCrea might be better at the moment but no other current coaches I can think of seem better and McCrea has far more talent to work with and odds defying luck in close games - on the few occasions that oppositions have them at their mercy they tend to then panic (e.g. Melbourne) and waste golden opportunities while Pies stay focussed. Instilling that confident calmness is McCrea's strength.
Ross has taken our mediocre team/set up and got us a final. Incredible effort really. The AFL intelligencia were crowing all year we would not make it and were struggling to explain our ladder position.
The club has restructured and retooled is a good way. We are well staffed, great coaching group improving the list and players within the list. Ross seems to have realised his original style was wearing and seems to have modified the rhetoric and delegates. We only need a reasonable level of luck to be finalists again.

[Vortex]

I think he's far too inclined to leave Lyon's impact out of the equation. I'm not a total Lyon groupie like Teffers, but I recognise what he can do.

If we look at Lyon's coaching record: the first season is a bit of a struggle as the players get used to his style, and the team only goes reasonably well (our 2023 performance was better than he managed at the Saints in 2007 or Freo in 2012), The second season delivers a much better performance that takes a team to the PF (or in Freo's case, a GF). Then the high level of performance becomes even more consistent for the next two seasons (in terms of where teams finish in the regular season: finals are a slightly different matter). Then, in season 5, performance levels begin to fall away seemingly due to most players (other than freaks like Riewoldt and Hill) being unable to sustain the high intensity play that Lyon demands from them.

I known most media experts and possibly most Saints supporters would tell me I'm dreaming, but 'm expecting our performances to take a similar trajectory over the next few years. Getting teams with a bunch of ordinary players and a sprinkling of stars deep into finals series is what Lyon does. He's extremely good at it. He's an incredible force during the regular season: not so much in finals, where his inflexibility has been a continuing problem for him (as we saw again againt GWS with his continued use of Philippou - who should have been sub IMO - and his failure to put Cody forward and bring Howard into the backline, which might just about have won us the game). But he is a genuine super coach, and idiots like Ralph shouldn't write him off.  

I'm squarely in the camp that believes Lyon is one of the best with a great list. No question he can take a group of highly talented and most importantly highly committed individuals to the last day in September. He's proven in that space.

What I'm doubtful of is what magic trick he has to procure said highly talented list at one of the poorest clubs in the AFL with a very long history, 150 years long to be exact, of being the exact opposite of a destination club for talented individuals. It's Lyons greatest challenge.

If he manages to procure the required compliment of players capable of challenging then I am absolutely supremely confident he won't have any troubles garnering said high end commitment, mostly because they were hand picked by the man himself. Obvious stuff I know.

The club is his greatest obsticle in reaching the promised land.

[shanegrambeau]

So among those getting into their late twenties, Ralph didn’t mention Jack Hayes.

Did I miss something? Is he still on the list?

What do you lot reckon of Hayes now!!