Draft prediction - player types

[remboy]

185cm, 80+ kg; 6.5 secs for 50m. Good jump. Great hand eye coordination. Long accurate kick. Coachable. Gets on well with team mates. Courageous. Will stay.

Has the multitude of statistics about AFL, largely hindsight based, ever attempted to quantify/qualify the marginal difference in AA potential between a top 10 pick and a 40+ pick. If that can't be measured why get so uptight about the subjective opinion of the mob.

Someone was convinced Billings was superior to Bontempelli: is that gross incompetence or evidence its a lottery if the consensus of talent scouts is used to rate. Good against boys = good against men in a completely different environment? Is that the professional logic?

Pelchen was trusted with list management and the man was clearly unfit for the role. But he got it. We were ruined for a long time.

How could rational "experts" have rated Jack Billings a #3 in his draft year, McCartin #1 when not exceptional in size or attributes. Jack Watts, Dees must still cringe.

For something so important the clubs seem to let some strange people take the calls (see Essendon, Bulldogs, us until a few years ago, do the recruiters outsmart themselves trying to prove they are cleverer than they actually are: where are the checks and balances.

Paul Roos said that if Melbourne had kept pick two they would have taken Billings. He was always going top three.

[Yorkeys]

185cm, 80+ kg; 6.5 secs for 50m. Good jump. Great hand eye coordination. Long accurate kick. Coachable. Gets on well with team mates. Courageous. Will stay.

Has the multitude of statistics about AFL, largely hindsight based, ever attempted to quantify/qualify the marginal difference in AA potential between a top 10 pick and a 40+ pick. If that can't be measured why get so uptight about the subjective opinion of the mob.

Someone was convinced Billings was superior to Bontempelli: is that gross incompetence or evidence its a lottery if the consensus of talent scouts is used to rate. Good against boys = good against men in a completely different environment? Is that the professional logic?

Pelchen was trusted with list management and the man was clearly unfit for the role. But he got it. We were ruined for a long time.

How could rational "experts" have rated Jack Billings a #3 in his draft year, McCartin #1 when not exceptional in size or attributes. Jack Watts, Dees must still cringe.

For something so important the clubs seem to let some strange people take the calls (see Essendon, Bulldogs, us until a few years ago, do the recruiters outsmart themselves trying to prove they are cleverer than they actually are: where are the checks and balances.

Paul Roos said that if Melbourne had kept pick two they would have taken Billings. He was always going top three.

Maybe. Maybe just mind fing.
But either way shows it's not so scientific or obvious once guys have the physical skills. There is apparently no template for the intangible qualities like decision making and field vision. Top 10 picks are that because of perceptions and biases of a relatively small group and media flunkies. I suspect given data on all drafts and subsequent performances AI will be making the choices in future.

[Scollop]

Seems the Northern States (NSW and QLD) have figured out that the draft is chooklotto most of the time ...so they've increased the odds of success with their talent Academies.

We did ok out of our NGA in 2021. We need to try and emulate that success and try and promote our Academy for outstanding junior talent in the Bayside region

[CQ SAINT]

Seems the Northern States (NSW and QLD) have figured out that the draft is chooklotto most of the time ...so they've increased the odds of success with their talent Academies.

We did ok out of our NGA in 2021. We need to try and emulate that success and try and promote our Academy for outstanding junior talent in the Bayside region

Preparing kids in an academy, to hopefully finish outside the top 40 draft picks, seems like a waste of time and effort.

Rules should only apply to the first round.

Then, we should be entitled to an academy discount of 10% points on picks inside pick 40. Would be good if clubs had background and development on 2nd round worthy academy picks through the academy.

Some years you might get 3 in the 2nd round, others you won't.

Would be interesting if you could match bids if your player is picked within 5 picks of your pick or similar.

The NGA rules need to benefit clubs.

[remboy]

185cm, 80+ kg; 6.5 secs for 50m. Good jump. Great hand eye coordination. Long accurate kick. Coachable. Gets on well with team mates. Courageous. Will stay.

Has the multitude of statistics about AFL, largely hindsight based, ever attempted to quantify/qualify the marginal difference in AA potential between a top 10 pick and a 40+ pick. If that can't be measured why get so uptight about the subjective opinion of the mob.

Someone was convinced Billings was superior to Bontempelli: is that gross incompetence or evidence its a lottery if the consensus of talent scouts is used to rate. Good against boys = good against men in a completely different environment? Is that the professional logic?

Pelchen was trusted with list management and the man was clearly unfit for the role. But he got it. We were ruined for a long time.

How could rational "experts" have rated Jack Billings a #3 in his draft year, McCartin #1 when not exceptional in size or attributes. Jack Watts, Dees must still cringe.

For something so important the clubs seem to let some strange people take the calls (see Essendon, Bulldogs, us until a few years ago, do the recruiters outsmart themselves trying to prove they are cleverer than they actually are: where are the checks and balances.

Paul Roos said that if Melbourne had kept pick two they would have taken Billings. He was always going top three.

Maybe. Maybe just mind fing.
But either way shows it's not so scientific or obvious once guys have the physical skills. There is apparently no template for the intangible qualities like decision making and field vision. Top 10 picks are that because of perceptions and biases of a relatively small group and media flunkies. I suspect given data on all drafts and subsequent performances AI will be making the choices in future.

It would be very interesting to see how far someone could go with AI in terms of taking the subjectivity out of it, inputting data and basing decisions around that.

[saynta]

Seems the Northern States (NSW and QLD) have figured out that the draft is chooklotto most of the time ...so they've increased the odds of success with their talent Academies.

We did ok out of our NGA in 2021. We need to try and emulate that success and try and promote our Academy for outstanding junior talent in the Bayside region

Preparing kids in an academy, to hopefully finish outside the top 40 draft picks, seems like a waste of time and effort.

Rules should only apply to the first round.

Then, we should be entitled to an academy discount of 10% points on picks inside pick 40. Would be good if clubs had background and development on 2nd round worthy academy picks through the academy.

Some years you might get 3 in the 2nd round, others you won't.

Would be interesting if you could match bids if your player is picked within 5 picks of your pick or similar.

The NGA rules need to benefit clubs.

Oh to be the gold Coast when it comes to NGA rules. So f****** unfair.

[saintsRrising]

Seems the Northern States (NSW and QLD) have figured out that the draft is chooklotto most of the time ...so they've increased the odds of success with their talent Academies.

We did ok out of our NGA in 2021. We need to try and emulate that success and try and promote our Academy for outstanding junior talent in the Bayside region

The rules have changed. We can only match if they are outside the Top 40. Whereas GC get three Top 10 players this year from their Academy.

We have already missed out on a Top 10 pick.

[footynut]

I just look at some highlights, and i really hope we stay away from Koltyn Tholstrup with our first pick. He has a mature body, decent skills, however I get the feeling that he is a slow decision maker, and therefore holds up play or simply bombs it long. Maybe James Leake, Harry DeMattia's or Charlie Edwards, But I'm really struggling to find someone in our range that excites me (remember we basically miss out on a first round pick)

[B.M]

From what I’ve heard, after the top 10ish you could throw a blanket over the next 40 odd

And yes, not that much to be excited about

[TheGreatZacsby]

From what I’ve heard, after the top 10ish you could throw a blanket over the next 40 odd

And yes, not that much to be excited about

I would be okay trading out our first round draft picks for Geelongs Pick 7 and a second round from Geelong next year any day of the week

[B.M]

Why would Geelong do that deal?