The Worst Place To Be

[Otiman]

The best place to be is with a wealth of Father-Son picks and community deals.

[Vortex]

The best place to be is with a wealth of Father-Son picks and community deals.

Geelong certainly leveraged the FS rule to bring home some flags.

[saynta]

Will Tasmania get all the top picks like Giants did when they started? Or am I living in the wrong multiverse?

GCSs and GWS entered the competition in 2011, that was the end of the Lyon era MK1.

Tasmania will enter the comp in 2026 and will receive draft concessions far in excess of those given to GCS and GWS when they entered the competition in 2011.

Being a middle of the ladder team will be even harder to build a list capable of challenging.

Do you ever get anything right?

'The GIANTS may be the Australian Football League's youngest club, having entered the competition at the beginning of the 2012 season."

[King Max]

The best place to be is with a wealth of Father-Son picks and community deals.

Collingwood’s 3 AA picks were Peter Moore’s little boy and Peter Daicos’ kids.

Our 2 players were both from the bargain basement.

Where do we need to finish on the ladder to get some decent father son picks?

[SinCitySainter]

I am not being pessimistic but everyone acknowledges we lack top end talent to really compete with the top 4 sides.
The problem is we are not and never have been a destination club which means we either have to pay over the odds to bring players in compared to Collingwood, Richmond, Geelong etc... or we shop in the cheaper bin.
We do not have access to the top end of the draft due to not being horrible and because we don't have financial clout we can't consider that approach as a way to bring top end talent.
That puts us very much in between the devil and the dark blue sea with no easy way out.
Yes, we could fluke a premiership like the Dogs did but let's not kid ourselves they were very much a mid table side (they finished 7th home and away) when they won including being absolutely gifted a Prelim win by the worst umpiring display I have ever seen.

North are truly woeful but the AFL are going to keep gifting them draft capital.
West Coast are loaded and can ride out a few years of bottoming out financially.
Collingwood are stacked full of Father-Sons which is by pure luck and nothing they did themselves.

So I would love it if anyone can explain how we are not in the worst place to be at the moment as far as improvement is concerned?

[Vortex]

Will Tasmania get all the top picks like Giants did when they started? Or am I living in the wrong multiverse?

GCSs and GWS entered the competition in 2011, that was the end of the Lyon era MK1.

Tasmania will enter the comp in 2026 and will receive draft concessions far in excess of those given to GCS and GWS when they entered the competition in 2011.

Being a middle of the ladder team will be even harder to build a list capable of challenging.

Do you ever get anything right?

'The GIANTS may be the Australian Football League's youngest club, having entered the competition at the beginning of the 2012 season."

Thanks for the correction Ray

Was that their first year of playing in 2012?

Was their license was issued earlier and had their player academy operational prior to their first year of competition?

[Sanctorum]

I remain quite upbeat about St Kilda's prospects and beyond. This year the team did far better than anyone expected, including most Saints supporters, and they accomplished this with a very average list of players.

I feel confident that the List Managers will be adding some very good players via the draft and trade periods.

As we saw this past season, St Kilda has some very exciting young talent in Wanganeen Milera, Owens, Windhager, Phillipou, Sharman and even Caminiti who all showed they are likely to become A grade players.

The team's backline was one of the best in the comp, Sinclair, Wilkie, Marshall and King are elite, Crouch, Wood and Hill both had strong seasons, Steele and Clark will improve considerably in 2024 after overcoming serious injuries.

The coaching panel is by far the best the club has had in years!

It's far from doom and gloom as I see it, but each to their own, feel pessimistic about the "reality" as some supporters feel but I honestly think the team is in an upward spiral that will build further momentun in 2024

[Otiman]

I think it goes to show that the comp is so even right now that any AFL decision has a huge effect.

Father-son picks
Academy picks
Cost of living cap relief
Priority Picks
FA Compensation
Fixtures incuding scheduled breaks
Special Rounds

The AFL has many strings to play with.

So why do we all blame umpires as the source of the AFL's meddling?

[B.M]

All the power clubs of the last decade Haw, Syd, Geel, Coll have done so through draft and trading annd FA and not bottoming out.

You continually contend, the more likely you are to win

Only the dogs have bucked that trend

Carlton went to the draft by bottoming out
Three number ones in a row!!! Plus used pick 3 (and their previous pick 4 in Kennedy to trade in Judd!)
None of those players Murphy, Gibbs, Kruzer or Judd won a premiership- or played regular finals - in fact were generally cellar dwellers.

Melbourne tried to bottom out 2008/09
Picked up Watts number 1 in 08
Picked up Scully at 1 in 09 and Trengove at 2
Those three kids were stand outs in their respective draft years
For differing reasons never were much good.

Bottoming out means it’s a long way to the top - especially when top teams continue to be top teams because they are now destination clubs for trading and FA

[Otiman]

The Hawthorn strategy will be an interesting one to watch.

Purposely bottom out hard, trade out your aging players for whatever you can get, and bring up a core of youth of the same age.

If it works, I can see tanking become in vogue again.

[Vortex]

All the power clubs of the last decade Haw, Syd, Geel, Coll have done so through draft and trading annd FA and not bottoming out.

You continually contend, the more likely you are to win

Only the dogs have bucked that trend

Carlton went to the draft by bottoming out
Three number ones in a row!!! Plus used pick 3 (and their previous pick 4 in Kennedy to trade in Judd!)
None of those players Murphy, Gibbs, Kruzer or Judd won a premiership- or played regular finals - in fact were generally cellar dwellers.

Melbourne tried to bottom out 2008/09
Picked up Watts number 1 in 08
Picked up Scully at 1 in 09 and Trengove at 2
Those three kids were stand outs in their respective draft years
For differing reasons never were much good.

Bottoming out means it’s a long way to the top - especially when top teams continue to be top teams because they are now destination clubs for trading and FA

Hawthorn, Sydney Geelong and Collingwood are all destination clubs where players want to go as they have a high chance of playing finals regularly and in front of big crowds, those clubs are a long way from middle of the ladder which is why they never need to bottom out.

[B.M]

No club ‘needs to bottom out’

That’s a fallacy and rarely works

Good clubs or as you put it, destination clubs are that for a reason, they contend every year by continually evolving their list to stay at the top.

Bottoming out by StK, Carlton, Melbourne and North has been an abject failure!
Hawthorns new strategy is yet to bear fruit
Their old strategy won them 3 premierships

Great clubs GF is in late Sept
s*** clubs is in mid November

[Scollop]

West Coast and other clubs like Collingwood have managed to have consistent sustainable success with top 4 teams and then both clubs had bottomed out for a period of time...and then build from the draft.

Both won premierships in the 90's and then bottomed out in the late 90's. Both again won premierships a decade or so after that. West Coast weren't looking for short cuts. They had a slow build and it worked in 2005 and again in 2018.

That's not a fluke. That's a well run club that plans long term.

Collingwood has managed to retain their ageing stars plus with the help of free agency, father son picks (and great coaching and development) they are back in a GF just five years after losing to West Coast. But ...

I think Collingwood will hit a brick wall next year just like Geelong did this year.

Geelong gambled and kept their aging stars for far too long. It paid off in 2022, but they inevitably fell off a cliff. They won't make the top 8 next year and I think it'll be a decade before they are a top 4 team again

They'll take 5 years before they're anywhere near a finals outfit again. Topping up can only get you so far.

Hawthorn finished top 4 in 2018 with 15 wins. It'll take them another 10 years ...after that point (so 2028 probably) to get back to having a list capable of getting anywhere near top 4.

[Otiman]

No club ‘needs to bottom out’

That’s a fallacy and rarely works

Good clubs or as you put it, destination clubs are that for a reason, they contend every year by continually evolving their list to stay at the top.

Bottoming out by StK, Carlton, Melbourne and North has been an abject failure!
Hawthorns new strategy is yet to bear fruit
Their old strategy won them 3 premierships

Great clubs GF is in late Sept
s*** clubs is in mid November

You need to keep the winning culture. That's the only reason I think Hawthorn's strategy is a chance.

The trap is where you bottom out, lose the will to win, and that's almost impossible to get back.

[Scollop]

Collingwood have a side comprising of 7 frd picks and 10 free agents

Brisbane have 8 frd picks and 9 free agents

https://www.afl.com.au/video/1042862/ge ... 5785453001

[Vortex]

No club ‘needs to bottom out’

That’s a fallacy and rarely works

Good clubs or as you put it, destination clubs are that for a reason, they contend every year by continually evolving their list to stay at the top.

Bottoming out by StK, Carlton, Melbourne and North has been an abject failure!
Hawthorns new strategy is yet to bear fruit
Their old strategy won them 3 premierships

Great clubs GF is in late Sept
s*** clubs is in mid November

I totally agree, I don't rate COVID cups so Melbourne bottoming out, and quite severely I might add, didn't help them win a flag, and it didn't help us even though we came runner up twice, it certainly won't be the reason Carlton win a flag with their current list after bottoming out. I'd hate to be in Carlton's position after bottoming out, can't see them winning a flag anytime soon.

Hawks only won their premierships from really smart drafting of players like Buddy, Hodge, Roughead and co and not bottoming out...hang on.

Bottoming out has clearly worked since the introduction of the draft system.

North could be next, they certainly already have a significant stable of talented draftees and that was before the assistance package which is a massive leg up.

[Yorkeys]

AFL negotiate like its playing with a lot of other people's money. So North get a great package for free, no strings attached. That’s the way to get them to lift. Apparently you can't legislate smarts. But the package is paid for by other clubs. Champion data could do a progressive analysis to identify whose losses are to subsidise North. It's no free lunch, even though the AFL presents it as no cost charity. It might be more transparent if just a sum of money was given. People can relate that to opportunity cost and it would be more obvious it's a rort.

[B.M]

Hawthorns list of Trades and FAs has a lot more to do with trading in than anything else

Frawley, Lake, McEvoy, Gunston, Burgoyne, Gibson
All from other clubs - all critical in their premierships

In 08
Guerra, Dew, Hale etc…

You build a nucleus from the draft - hope like hell you nail FRDPs

Then add the finishing touches

[Sanctorum]

West Coast and other clubs like Collingwood have managed to have consistent sustainable success with top 4 teams and then both clubs had bottomed out for a period of time...and then build from the draft.

Both won premierships in the 90's and then bottomed out in the late 90's. Both again won premierships a decade or so after that. West Coast weren't looking for short cuts. They had a slow build and it worked in 2005 and again in 2018.

That's not a fluke. That's a well run club that plans long term.

Collingwood has managed to retain their ageing stars plus with the help of free agency, father son picks (and great coaching and development) they are back in a GF just five years after losing to West Coast. But ...

I think Collingwood will hit a brick wall next year just like Geelong did this year.

Geelong gambled and kept their aging stars for far too long. It paid off in 2022, but they inevitably fell off a cliff. They won't make the top 8 next year and I think it'll be a decade before they are a top 4 team again

They'll take 5 years before they're anywhere near a finals outfit again. Topping up can only get you so far.

Hawthorn finished top 4 in 2018 with 15 wins. It'll take them another 10 years ...after that point (so 2028 probably) to get back to having a list capable of getting anywhere near top 4.

That's a huge call Scollop, presumably you are basing it on the fact that they will go into 2024 with at least 12 players aged 30 or over, and not a hell of a lot of proven talent 22 or younger.

Since 2004 Geelong have missed out on playing finals only 3 times and never in consecutive years.

On that record along it's quite likely they will be in the 8 again in 2024.

Geelong have a really strong culture of success, built on first class off-field management, a massive home ground advantage and a knack of attracting quality players from other teams.

[Vortex]

Hawthorns list of Trades and FAs has a lot more to do with trading in than anything else

Frawley, Lake, McEvoy, Gunston, Burgoyne, Gibson
All from other clubs - all critical in their premierships

In 08
Guerra, Dew, Hale etc…

You build a nucleus from the draft - hope like hell you nail FRDPs

Then add the finishing touches

Totally and is a great example of the fab 5 we recruited in 2019 as being really good recruits, just the timing wasn’t, meaning those players would have been excellent finishing touches had we been knocking on the door of the top 4.

[Scollop]

West Coast and other clubs like Collingwood have managed to have consistent sustainable success with top 4 teams and then both clubs had bottomed out for a period of time...and then build from the draft.

Both won premierships in the 90's and then bottomed out in the late 90's. Both again won premierships a decade or so after that. West Coast weren't looking for short cuts. They had a slow build and it worked in 2005 and again in 2018.

That's not a fluke. That's a well run club that plans long term.

Collingwood has managed to retain their ageing stars plus with the help of free agency, father son picks (and great coaching and development) they are back in a GF just five years after losing to West Coast. But ...

I think Collingwood will hit a brick wall next year just like Geelong did this year.

Geelong gambled and kept their aging stars for far too long. It paid off in 2022, but they inevitably fell off a cliff. They won't make the top 8 next year and I think it'll be a decade before they are a top 4 team again

They'll take 5 years before they're anywhere near a finals outfit again. Topping up can only get you so far.

Hawthorn finished top 4 in 2018 with 15 wins. It'll take them another 10 years ...after that point (so 2028 probably) to get back to having a list capable of getting anywhere near top 4.

That's a huge call Scollop, presumably you are basing it on the fact that they will go into 2024 with at least 12 players aged 30 or over, and not a hell of a lot of proven talent 22 or younger.

Since 2004 Geelong have missed out on playing finals only 3 times and never in consecutive years.

On that record along it's quite likely they will be in the 8 again in 2024.

Geelong have a really strong culture of success, built on first class off-field management, a massive home ground advantage and a knack of attracting quality players from other teams.

I'm following in the foot steps of 'Big Call Montagna'. Some of his colleagues on MMM are calling him that after some of his predictions this year

Their drafting between 2000-2010 was brilliant. Along with the father son picks it created their dynasty between 2007 to 2011. Father son picks helped...as did 3 flags...so...of course free agents wanted to go there.

Some smart trading over the last ten years has kept them playing finals but it's not going to be that easy this time around. Player managers can't sell the Geelong premiership dream like they used to.

Anyway...most of us here hate Geelong. So it will be fun if it becomes a reality. The more teams that struggle, the better it is for us

[shanegrambeau]

As a St KIlda fan, I'll take MOR with 'the odd angry shot' at the flag anyday over tanking and 'bottoming-out' .

I don't see a rubber ball that 'bounces' right back (GT era). I see a pizza in the middle of a busy road.

[ace]

Didn't work for us before, and there won't be preferential treatment like we got in the early 00s anymore.

almost did,and don't kid yourself, we wouldn't have ever got into those GFs without the preferential treatment.

And don't kid your self Geelong would have made it to those Grand Finals if they had been made to pay full draft price for their myriad of star father-son players.

Which reminds me.
Didn't North deliberately let Collingwood off the hook by refusing to call Diacos (as did Doggies and GWS)
Collingwood got Daicos on the cheap at pick 4
North instead takes a little hyphen from Adelaide as No 1 pick only to have him demanding to go home even before the season is finished.

North got 2022 pick 1 for tanking to last but traded it away
They traded 2002 pick 1, Hyphen & Junior Rioli for 2022 pick 2 and pick 3 and 2023 pick 16
Those picks 2 & 3 became 3 & 4 after Gold Coast queue jumped for father-son Ashcroft.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_AFL_draft
2022 Pick 3 = Sheezel
2022 pick 4 = Wardlaw
plus 2023 pick 16 to be called
Now they have 2023 pick 2 plus 3 end of round 1 picks for tanking again.

I think St Kilda should put forward a case for at least the first 10 first round picks in 2024 based on only winning one premiership in 150 years.

[Vortex]

Didn't work for us before, and there won't be preferential treatment like we got in the early 00s anymore.

almost did,and don't kid yourself, we wouldn't have ever got into those GFs without the preferential treatment.

And don't kid your self Geelong would have made it to those Grand Finals if they had been made to pay full draft price for their myriad of star father-son players.

Which reminds me.
Didn't North deliberately let Collingwood off the hook by refusing to call Diacos (as did Doggies and GWS)
Collingwood got Daicos on the cheap at pick 4
North instead takes a little hyphen from Adelaide as No 1 pick only to have him demanding to go home even before the season is finished.
They traded Hyphen & Junior Rioli for 2022 pick 2 and pick 3 and 2023 pick 16
Those picks 2 & 3 became 3 & 4 after Gold Coast queue jumped for father-son Ashcroft.
So North got 2022 pick 1 for tanking to last = Cadman
2022 Pick 3 = Sheezel
2022 pick 4 = Wardlaw
plus 2023 pick 16 to be called
2023 pick 2 for tanking

North will be in contention for a flag around 2027 onwards.

Tanking works for poor clubs.

[samuraisaint]

Didn't work for us before, and there won't be preferential treatment like we got in the early 00s anymore.

almost did,and don't kid yourself, we wouldn't have ever got into those GFs without the preferential treatment.

And don't kid your self Geelong would have made it to those Grand Finals if they had been made to pay full draft price for their myriad of star father-son players.

Which reminds me.
Didn't North deliberately let Collingwood off the hook by refusing to call Diacos (as did Doggies and GWS)
Collingwood got Daicos on the cheap at pick 4
North instead takes a little hyphen from Adelaide as No 1 pick only to have him demanding to go home even before the season is finished.
They traded Hyphen & Junior Rioli for 2022 pick 2 and pick 3 and 2023 pick 16
Those picks 2 & 3 became 3 & 4 after Gold Coast queue jumped for father-son Ashcroft.
So North got 2022 pick 1 for tanking to last = Cadman
2022 Pick 3 = Sheezel
2022 pick 4 = Wardlaw
plus 2023 pick 16 to be called
2023 pick 2 for tanking

North will be in contention for a flag around 2027 onwards.

Tanking works for poor clubs.

Losing McKay, Goldstein, and Ziebell and Cunnington retiring will guarantee them more short term pain next year and probably 2025 as well.


I think we should look at trying to steal Noah Anderson or Rowell from the Suns in trade deals. They are the sort of players we need.