Mass exodus

[saintsRrising]

So based on other than review the draft kids this years batch will only run to 40 or 50 players. Last year 59.
From that 40/50 the favoured clubs still get their Academy picks. The less favoured like St Kilda only get to match from 40+
Then remove the father sons who get matched too.

FA compo picks may slide things further. Plus if the AFL caves and gives North an extra pick, or allows them to take one Academy player early (rort as the guy was not even in their Academy till very recently. He should just be a 40+ match).

So that means that the AFL Draft this year is going to be slim pickings.

We currently have picks 13, 32 and 51. So that possibly is only two useful picks. And remember that those picks will slide backwards due to above.


Trading in more draft picks will be difficult to achieve in a useful range. Especially at the quality end of the draft.

Trading in more players is always going to be difficult. Especially of the type we need. ie Say Flanders.

FA could also be negated if we bring in a FA, but let say Gresham go as a FA. Plus if we do not bring in a FA If say Gresham's contract as a FA is not a good one, then his pic compo will be so low that the kid draft in is going to a real gamble in this year's draft pool. The only upside is freeing up the contract $$, but is this actually a problem at present?

It makes more sense to bring in FA's than let players go as FA's this year. Or to trade players for players if you can get a reasonable deal.
Though the flaw in that is can we actually land a FA that will make a difference this year?



What this means is that there is no point just delisting players for the sake of delisting them. There are a number who can be let go as they are not up to it , or look to now have ongoing injury issues that they cannot shake. You would suspect Coffield though would be kept, as delisting him will gain nothing, and he will be a better punt that a kid taken late in the draft. Dmac may be at the stage of being delisted though.

Will some players that some want to trade actually generate a a good enough deal in picks or players? That is the question.
The Club may be open to trading a player if the deal is good enough, but the deal offered might be too poor to trade him. ALL CLUBS chat to other clubs in the lead up to trade time to indicate which players may be gettable if the deal is ok.


Just ending up with a bundle of late picks in the draft is likely to achieve little.


With our trade and draft hand both weak it is difficult to see how we can let huge numbers of players go, unless you are ok to just bring in a huge number of speculative late draft kids. This will weaken our depth, and will also be likely to not generate much in eventual first 22 players.

Personally I am hopefully that the club can land one to three ready to go (but not old) players that would advantage our list in 2024 on. Plus some draftees.
More would trades in be great, but I cannot see us having the trade value (players or pics) to achieve it.

[Vortex]

Personally I am hopefully that the club can land one to three ready to go (but not old) players that would advantage our list in 2024 on.

which club doesn't wish that, or are we talking like open check book and 7 year deals

don't get me wrong, I'm wishing your wish but if it was a realistic option it sounds expensive and Ross isn't wired that way.

[saintsRrising]

Personally I am hopefully that the club can land one to three ready to go (but not old) players that would advantage our list in 2024 on.

which club doesn't wish that, or are we talking like open check book and 7 year deals

don't get me wrong, I'm wishing your wish but if it was a realistic option it sounds expensive and Ross isn't wired that way.

Why expensive?

The draftees will be cheap. The trick there is getting more picks inside the Top 40.

The one to three ready to go players are not likely to be huge contract types as Parish etc are now off the table. Flanders is about the only one left.

So unless they land Mackay from North, or Flanders from GC, we are more talking moderate type packages. ie Henry.

[skeptic]

Posted on FB a summary of RTB on FC (didn’t see it myself).

Club really wants to keep Gresh

Howard
Clark
Coffield
Billings
Paton

All identified as trade bait

[Vortex]

Personally I am hopefully that the club can land one to three ready to go (but not old) players that would advantage our list in 2024 on.

which club doesn't wish that, or are we talking like open check book and 7 year deals

don't get me wrong, I'm wishing your wish but if it was a realistic option it sounds expensive and Ross isn't wired that way.

Why expensive?

The draftees will be cheap. The trick there is getting more picks inside the Top 40.

The one to three ready to go players are not likely to be huge contract types as Parish etc are now off the table. Flanders is about the only one left.

So unless they land Mackay from North, or Flanders from GC, we are more talking moderate type packages. ie Henry.

Ah ok my bad now I get your suggestion, and agree. Thought you were suggesting a spending spree like back in 2019 when we bought in the fab 5.

I like the idea of a strategy that always goes to the national draft but also procure a few older types from the 2nd tier and only being in the expensive recruit if it’s a deal too good to refuse similar to how Geelong bought in Cameron and was the missing piece.

[saintsRrising]

Posted on FB a summary of RTB on FC (didn’t see it myself).

Club really wants to keep Gresh

I also wonder if this means we have our eyes on a FA. If we get a FA in that may blow or largely reduce any FA compo for Gresh, and in this scenario he is more value kept.

Gresh has many Pros. His Cons are his often poor passing skills and decisions. Maybe Ross believe he can improve both.

Howard
Clark
Coffield
Billings
Paton

All identified as trade bait

And like any bait, you do not always get bites, and the fish landed may be not worth the effort.

Every club will put up a batch of names to other clubs to discuss possible names. The list managers even have an organised day now to all meet at the one venue. Many of the possibles do not end up moving though.

Howard, Clark and Billings the most likely to achieve something back.
Especially Hoard as tall defenders are in short supply.
Billings I rate higher than many. However as he has missed a lot of football the last two seasons, you would imagine that we would gain only a cheap price for him in picks. Perhaps a player swap would work best for us? Maybe say Billings for Flanders?
Clark injuries would likewise see his trade value impacted.

Paton very little would be likely.

Coffield with his injury record could also only generate a low return.

[B.M]

Interesting article on AFL.com.au

Saints left in limbo with out-of-contract stars yet to re-sign

Mentions
Gresham, Clark, Coffield, Membrey, Billings, Byrnes, Paton, Stocker, Webster and OOC Highmore, Campbell, McKenzie

[Yorkeys]

Interesting article on AFL.com.au

Saints left in limbo with out-of-contract stars yet to re-sign

Mentions
Gresham, Clark, Coffield, Membrey, Billings, Byrnes, Paton, Stocker, Webster and OOC Highmore, Campbell, McKenzie

Guessing state of play:
Gresh, coming to terms with: lack of interest in him, firm offer of less money from Saints, that he is no longer a special player under regime Ross and if he decides to go there won't really be a ripple.
Clark: likely to stay, interrupted year, now pegged as a mid and valued, good offer to stay but will be wished all the best if he goes. Ross will retire soon, side has made finals, familiar surroundings.
Coffield: 2 years. Investment is about to pay dividends.
Membrey: one year contract. Probably play fill in for injuries. Mainly VFL.
Billings: club ambivalent. If an ok offer comes he goes, otherwise handy wing/half forward resource. Significant drop in pay.
Byrnes: Club will try to resign and that's likely as his flashes of promise alone probably won't attract suitors from other clubs. Two yr contract.
Paton: re-signs, Jimmy can't go on forever with the punishment he takes.
Stocker: definite keeper. There is mutual love between club and player.
Webster: Jimmy is a one club player. Will be on a promise.
Highmore probably cut.
Campbell, maybe one year as VFL mentor and emergency hulk.
McKenzie: dependent on Drs thumbs, up or down.

[Ghost Like]

Interesting article on AFL.com.au

Saints left in limbo with out-of-contract stars yet to re-sign

Mentions
Gresham, Clark, Coffield, Membrey, Billings, Byrnes, Paton, Stocker, Webster and OOC Highmore, Campbell, McKenzie

What's the interesting part about it B.M?

[Ghost Like]

I'll be gutted if we lose Paton. I think he's a keeper, especially in an age where small forwards are nearly as important as the big boys & need to be locked down.

[saintsRrising]

Billings: club ambivalent. If an ok offer comes he goes, otherwise handy wing/half forward resource. Significant drop in pay.

Billings is not out of contract at the end of this year. He is contract for 2024 and 2025. So no drop in pay if he stays.

[B.M]

Percentage staying imo

0% Bytel
5% Highmore
5% Gresham
10% Campbell
25% Billings
25% Clark
33% Coffield
50% Paton
50% Stocker
95% Steele

[nostalgicsaint]

Percentage staying imo

0% Bytel
5% Highmore
5% Gresham
10% Campbell
25% Billings
25% Clark
33% Coffield
50% Paton
50% Stocker
95% Steele

I like this post. Better still if you added whose choice it was to leave. Player, club, mutual.

[magnifisaint]

Geez Petracca is a good player. Judd like

[bobmurray]

So this draft is now full of numpties, i'm sure last year they said the 2023 draft was going to be full of class players.

Either recruiters guess that under 16 players are going to star when they go to U/18 level or they get found out when those players step
up an age level and then struggle.

It's a fact that players dominate at U/18 level and then can't cope with AFL.

That's some reasons why recruiting is inexact, they just predict how some players will cope with the next step.
Not that Elshaug cared, he just hoped they kept their bedroom clean.

[B.M]

A while after this post

Thoughts now???

IMO as it stands
Out
Gresham - Essendon
Pick 31 - Essendon
Coffield - Western Bulldogs
Billings - Carlton
Pick 13 (From Essendon)
Clark - North Melbourne
Bytel - Delisted
Adams - Delisted
Highmore - Delisted
Connolly - Delisted
Campbell - Retired
Peris - Delisted

In
Henry (pick 13)
Dow (Billings)
Sheil (Gresham plus pick Swap with Essendon)
2nd Round Pick - North (Pick 21)
2nd Rnd Pick - Bulldogs (pick 27)

Plus we use our own Pick 12 and Pick 49


Question Marks
Howard - offer two years or trade
McKenzie - one year or delist
Z Jones - one year or delist

[B.M]

Best team

B: Wilkie - Howard* - Webster
HB: NWM - Battle - Sinclair
C: Wood - Crouch - Hill
HF: Henry - Membrey - Owens
F: Higgins - King - Hayes

Foll: Marshall - Steele - Sheil

Int: Phillipou - Butler - Ross - Jones

Sub: Sharman

Emerg: Stocker - Byrnes - McKenzie - Paton

Sandy
McLennan - Cordy - Paton
Stocker - Van Es - xxxxx
McKenzie - xxxxxx - Byrnes
Hotton - Allison - xxxxx
Keeler - Caminiti - xxxxx

Heath - xxxxx - xxxxx


Draft 4 out and out midfielders and pick up one from another club

[SuperDuper]

A while after this post

Thoughts now???

IMO as it stands
Out
Gresham - Essendon
Pick 31 - Essendon
Coffield - Western Bulldogs
Billings - Carlton
Pick 13 (From Essendon)
Clark - North Melbourne
Bytel - Delisted
Adams - Delisted
Highmore - Delisted
Connolly - Delisted
Campbell - Retired
Peris - Delisted

In
Henry (pick 13)
Dow (Billings)
Sheil (Gresham plus pick Swap with Essendon)
2nd Round Pick - North (Pick 21)
2nd Rnd Pick - Bulldogs (pick 27)

Plus we use our own Pick 12 and Pick 49


Question Marks
Howard - offer two years or trade
McKenzie - one year or delist
Z Jones - one year or delist

Firstly, pick 13 comes from FA compensation, not from Essendon

Secondly there is ZERO chance we pay pick 13 for Henry.
He is worth a similar amount to Clark, i.e. former top ten pick whose career has been pretty average.
Freemantle are doing some early posturing with ambit claims for pick 12 but he is out of contract and has nominated us. There is no chance SOS gives them pick 12 or 13 if we end up with pick 13)

Hopefully we can get 13 and package it with 12 and end up with Gold Coast pick 4

[skeptic]

I reckon Campbell will stay.

Is under no illusions that he’s a back up
Seems well liked by the coaches and is a leader at Sandy

[magnifisaint]

Mass Exodus!
What does it mean.
Who is going to look like an idiot.
That may be the question!

[B.M]

Google it?

It means a lot of players will be leaving StK

Who is going to look like an idiot?

Most suggested will either move or be delisted

JB only if he gets a suitor
Clark if he gets the right deal
Coffield I think is gone

Gresham - never going to stay

[SaintPav]

I reckon Campbell will stay.

Is under no illusions that he’s a back up
Seems well liked by the coaches and is a leader at Sandy

Mate knows him.

Said he appeared very upbeat when he saw him a few days ago.

Not sure what that means.

[Otiman]

Campbell on the list is a no brainer. Get a playing ruck coach outside of the soft cap.

Heath has already passed him and with an injury free preseason will be an exciting 2024 for him.

[B.M]

Campbell takes minutes off Heath

Heath needs to ruck at Sandy in partnership with Keeler

[Scollop]

Could we replace Campbell with someone who could play multiple roles and be used as second ruck in the seniors if required.

Lachlan Keeffe is a KP Defender who can ruck and also fills in as a KP forward at times when some of the GWS talls are injured.

He isn't your usual banged up footballer even though he's getting on in years, because he's missed 4-5 years of footy throughout his career.

I think he was out of football close to 2 years because of suspension from ASADA when he was a Collingwood player plus 2 years with injury. He had an ACL in 2012 and again in 2021.

If we're keeping Campbell, perhaps someone like Keeffe could be considered instead. He's 33, but looks in peak physical fitness. Very versatile and has only played a tick over 100 AFL games.