Finals Week 1 scenarios

[King Max]

Updated

Sydney teams lose
6th
Play in Melbourne v Swans

Sydney win, GWS lose
7th
Play Sydney away

GWS win, Sydney lose
6th
Giants in Melbourne unless margins are big then it’s 7th and Giants away. I haven’t done the sums but a total margin of about 55 points in the two games could push the Giants above us.

both Sydney teams win
7th play Sydney away unless margins are big and we finish 8th and play Carlton, also a chance that Sydney could pass Carlton on percentage, similar situation to Saints Giants.

Or I could have it all wrong.

% update to come

[SaintPav]

Playing Sydney in Sydney is definitely on the cards.

It probably depends on if Sydney beat Melbourne and what we do.

Sydney will be playing for a home final. Melbourne can afford to rest a bunch of players.

Sydney have done well.

Bad outcome for us if we don’t get a home final.

[avid]

Excellent summary MK, though I'm a bit more concerned about the margins needed to keep ahead of GWS

[King Max]

Excellent summary MK, though I'm a bit more concerned about the margins needed to keep ahead of GWS

With four variables there's no simple answer.

I ran 2 scenarios on a spreadsheet.

If we score 60 as a losing score and GWS score 100 as a winning score the total margin is between 52 and 58

Saints Lions % Giants Blues Total Margin
60 61 1.084963325 100 43 58
60 62 1.08430055 100 44 58
60 63 1.083638584 100 45 58
60 64 1.082977425 100 46 58
60 65 1.082317073 100 47 58
60 66 1.081657526 100 49 57
60 67 1.080998782 100 50 57
60 68 1.08034084 100 51 57
60 69 1.079683698 100 52 57
60 70 1.079027356 100 53 57
60 71 1.07837181 100 54 57
60 72 1.077717061 100 55 57
60 73 1.077063107 100 56 57
60 74 1.076409945 100 58 56
60 75 1.075757576 100 59 56
60 76 1.075105996 100 60 56
60 77 1.074455206 100 61 56
60 78 1.073805203 100 62 56
60 79 1.073155985 100 63 56
60 80 1.072507553 100 64 56
60 81 1.071859903 100 66 55
60 82 1.071213036 100 67 55
60 83 1.070566948 100 68 55
60 84 1.06992164 100 69 55
60 85 1.069277108 100 70 55
60 86 1.068633353 100 71 55
60 87 1.067990373 100 72 55
60 88 1.067348166 100 73 55
60 89 1.066706731 100 75 54
60 90 1.066066066 100 76 54
60 91 1.06542617 100 77 54
60 92 1.064787043 100 78 54
60 93 1.064148681 100 79 54
60 94 1.063511084 100 80 54
60 95 1.062874251 100 81 54
60 96 1.062238181 100 83 53
60 97 1.061602871 100 84 53
60 98 1.06096832 100 85 53
60 99 1.060334528 100 86 53
60 100 1.059701493 100 87 53
60 101 1.059069212 100 88 53
60 102 1.058437686 100 89 53
60 103 1.057806913 100 90 53
60 104 1.057176891 100 92 52
60 105 1.056547619 100 93 52
60 106 1.055919096 100 94 52
60 107 1.05529132 100 95 52
60 108 1.05466429 100 96 52
60 109 1.054038005 100 97 52
60 110 1.053412463 100 98 52

If we score 80 as a losing score and they score 80 as a winning score the total margin is between 50 and 55
Saints Lions % Giants Blues Total Margin
80 81 1.083937198 80 26 55
80 82 1.083283042 80 27 55
80 83 1.082629674 80 28 55
80 84 1.081977095 80 29 55
80 85 1.081325301 80 31 54
80 86 1.080674293 80 32 54
80 87 1.080024067 80 33 54
80 88 1.079374624 80 34 54
80 89 1.078725962 80 35 54
80 90 1.078078078 80 36 54
80 91 1.077430972 80 37 54
80 92 1.076784643 80 38 54
80 93 1.076139089 80 39 54
80 94 1.075494308 80 41 53
80 95 1.074850299 80 42 53
80 96 1.074207062 80 43 53
80 97 1.073564593 80 44 53
80 98 1.072922893 80 45 53
80 99 1.072281959 80 46 53
80 100 1.071641791 80 47 53
80 101 1.071002387 80 48 53
80 102 1.070363745 80 49 53
80 103 1.069725864 80 51 52
80 104 1.069088743 80 52 52
80 105 1.068452381 80 53 52
80 106 1.067816776 80 54 52
80 107 1.067181926 80 55 52
80 108 1.066547831 80 56 52
80 109 1.065914489 80 57 52
80 110 1.065281899 80 58 52
80 111 1.064650059 80 59 52
80 112 1.064018969 80 61 51
80 113 1.063388626 80 62 51
80 114 1.062759029 80 63 51
80 115 1.062130178 80 64 51
80 116 1.06150207 80 65 51
80 117 1.060874704 80 66 51
80 118 1.06024808 80 67 51
80 119 1.059622196 80 68 51
80 120 1.05899705 80 69 51
80 121 1.058372642 80 71 50
80 122 1.057748969 80 72 50
80 123 1.057126031 80 73 50
80 124 1.056503826 80 74 50
80 125 1.055882353 80 75 50
80 126 1.055261611 80 76 50
80 127 1.054641598 80 77 50
80 128 1.054022314 80 78 50
80 129 1.053403756 80 79 50

[Lennylegs]

Playing Sydney in Sydney is definitely on the cards.

It probably depends on if Sydney beat Melbourne and what we do.

Sydney will be playing for a home final. Melbourne can afford to rest a bunch of players.

Sydney have done well.

Bad outcome for us if we don’t get a home final.

Happy to play Sydney anywhere. Our mids should clean them up at clearance and contested footy with Rowan a much better ruckman than Hickey. They don't really have a match up for Max, either. And I'd back our backline against their young forwards. But I'll try not to get ahead of myself.

Great opportunity either way.

[older saint]

Melbourne weren't great yesterday so i would think they will be keen to keep momentum going , yes if guys sore rest but they have a pretty healthy list and guys are playing for spots. Oliver only just back so needs time.

Syd- papley out McCartin out
Or i am just being hopeful??

Easy beat Brisabne ...haha

[Bin Chicken]

Surely no teams in the 8 will rest many players this week if there’s a general bye the week after? Or did they can the stupid pre finals bye?

[remboy]

I expect Melbourne and Carlton to win. The eight will stay the same and we’ll play Sydney down here. Bookmark it!

[Otiman]

Sydney is the clear most likely opponent.

60/40 whether we finish ahead of them.

Unless Melbourne tank for a home final against Collingwood instead of travelling to Port or Brisbane.

Interesting question if you're Melbourne - Collingwood at the G, Port in Adelaide, or Brisbane in Brisbane - what do you choose?

[desertsaint]

yes we had a guaranteed home final until some idiot goal umpire thought he was smarter than he was. he must've fooled the field umps as well. maybe he'll impress in the u/12 riverina finals?

[maverick]

Sydney is the clear most likely opponent.

60/40 whether we finish ahead of them.

Unless Melbourne tank for a home final against Collingwood instead of travelling to Port or Brisbane.

Interesting question if you're Melbourne - Collingwood at the G, Port in Adelaide, or Brisbane in Brisbane - what do you choose?

Melbourne definitely tanks - we will be playing in Sydney unfortunately
Unless we pull off a win for the ages

[Yorkeys]

You know what, stuff Sydney & their homogenised style, their arse with umpiring, salary cap concessions; stuff Carlton & all their low draft picks because they cheated, stuff Collingwood & their many close wins that gave them heads like boarding house puddings, stuff Brisbane for a ridiculous home game advantage and seemingly endless low draft picks & Zorko. And just stuff Geelong for being consumate wankers. We earned finals without any leg up and no credit. So stuff them all. We are genuine and have earned what we have through graft and unappreciated ability. Whoever draws us, you have a damn fight on your hands.

[SaintPav]

Melbourne doesn’t need to tank to get a home final.

We could potentially be on the road 3 games in a row including playing in Brisbane this Saturday.

Delicious.

[saynta]

You know what, stuff Sydney & their homogenised style, their arse with umpiring, salary cap concessions; stuff Carlton & all their low draft picks because they cheated, stuff Collingwood & their many close wins that gave them heads like boarding house puddings, stuff Brisbane for a ridiculous home game advantage and seemingly endless low draft picks & Zorko. And just stuff Geelong for being consumate wankers. We earned finals without any leg up and no credit. So stuff them all. We are genuine and have earned what we have through graft and unappreciated ability. Whoever draws us, you have a damn fight on your hands.

Well said and a double stuffing to 360 who failed completely to acknowledge we made the finals. No mention at all although that thug former dorks player had Sincs as his hero, player of the round.

[StPeter]

We are disadvantaged by the actual time we play our final match.

The other teams playing after us will all know what they need to achieve to secure their best place.

If we lose Carlton have no incentive to win against GWS, ladder wise, as home final certain for them. GWS will know exactly what they need to beat Carlton by to secure a home final and finish ahead of us.

Demons unlikely to be flat out against the Swans as they know they are firmly placed in fourth place whatever their result.

Brisbane also playing for a win to secure a top two finish.

[saintsRrising]

Demons unlikely to be flat out against the Swans as they know they are firmly placed in fourth place whatever their result.

Though if Swans beat Melb, then they draw level on points. If GWS have a good win against them, Swans could possibly slide above them just as GWS can slide above us.

[StPeter]

Demons unlikely to be flat out against the Swans as they know they are firmly placed in fourth place whatever their result.

Though if Swans beat Melb, then they draw level on points. If GWS have a good win against them, Swans could possibly slide above them just as GWS can slide above us.

If Swans beat Demons they will go ahead of Saints if we lose, but can't catch Melbourne.

GWS win and Saints lose, by the time they play they will know what margin they will need to win by to go ahead of the Saints

[Otiman]

We are disadvantaged by the actual time we play our final match.

Agree but unless you fixture round 24 after round 23 this is inevitable.

The AFL tried by fixturing the round late in the season but the shake up was way too unpredictable at that point.

[Life Long Saint]

yes we had a guaranteed home final until some idiot goal umpire thought he was smarter than he was. he must've fooled the field umps as well. maybe he'll impress in the u/12 riverina finals?

Wasn't guaranteed until West Coast beat the Dogs.

[Scollop]

There's a big, big sound, from the west of Sydney town... it's the sound of the mighty Giants

I think GWS will beat Carlton this week

I also think Melbourne will beat Sydney this week

I think we lose to Brisbane

I don't think margins will be huge so Carlton finish 5th, we finish 6th, GWS 7th, and Sydney 8th

[desertsaint]

There's a big, big sound, from the west of Sydney town... it's the sound of the mighty Giants

I think GWS will beat Carlton this week

I also think Melbourne will beat Sydney this week

I think we lose to Brisbane

I don't think margins will be huge so Carlton finish 5th, we finish 6th, GWS 7th, and Sydney 8th

i'm hoping you're right. best outcome for us.

[Scollop]

Best outcome for the AFL as well

Both Sydney teams making Finals.

Sydney get one of their players off at the tribunal...again!!

I still think they'll carry their last quarter form from the Adelaide game into this week.

[SaintPav]

Best outcome for the AFL as well

Both Sydney teams making Finals.

Sydney get one of their players off at the tribunal...again!!

I still think they'll carry their last quarter form from the Adelaide game into this week.

Hope so.

I want to smash these self entitled pricks on the G.

[Banger9798]

Best outcome for the AFL as well

Both Sydney teams making Finals.

Sydney get one of their players off at the tribunal...again!!

I still think they'll carry their last quarter form from the Adelaide game into this week.

How did McCartin get off??...he looks straight at the guy, then hits him in the head and fractures his cheekbone.

[skeptic]

Best outcome for the AFL as well

Both Sydney teams making Finals.

Sydney get one of their players off at the tribunal...again!!

I still think they'll carry their last quarter form from the Adelaide game into this week.

How did McCartin get off??...he looks straight at the guy, then hits him in the head and fractures his cheekbone.

You’re talking about the system that let Barry Hall play in a Grandfinal after he provokingly decked someone 40m off the ball.