Lies, Damned Lies & Statistics

[ace]

If you were to look only at the game statistics (excluding goals & behinds) you would conclude that St Kilda lost to all 3 of the Dockers, the Doggies and the Dopers.
That's because St Kilda had less of almost everything but still won the games with a comfortable margin.

I did not see anything of the first 2 games as I was still in France trying to ski but actually fighting my first encounter with Covid.
(They don't give a toss about Covid in Europe now, everyone just gets on with their life as if it were a cold or the flu).
I recovered just in time to travel back to Oz.
But I did see the Dopers game on TV and it was clear that St Kilda played DIRECT football.
I assume that they did the same in the first 2 games.
Just get the ball and head for home fast, no mucking around.
You don't need to gather statistics, just goals.
Make it so hard for the opponents that they waste a lot of their statistics trying get into better positions to exit defence and to score.

I like what I saw especially when on paper the Saints depleted line up should have got flogged.

[Scollop]

If you were to look only at the game statistics (excluding goals & behinds) you would conclude that St Kilda lost to all 3 of the Dockers, the Doggies and the Dopers.
That's because St Kilda had less of almost everything but still won the games with a comfortable margin.

I did not see anything of the first 2 games as I was still in France trying to ski but actually fighting my first encounter with Covid.
(They don't give a toss about Covid in Europe now, everyone just gets on with their life as if it were a cold or the flu).
I recovered just in time to travel back to Oz.
But I did see the Dopers game on TV and it was clear that St Kilda played DIRECT football.
I assume that they did the same in the first 2 games.
Just get the ball and head for home fast, no mucking around.
You don't need to gather statistics, just goals.
Make it so hard for the opponents that they waste a lot of their statistics trying get into better positions to exit defence and to score.

I like what I saw especially when on paper the Saints depleted line up should have got flogged.

We didn't lose out on all stats

We just pipped them with inside 50's (52 to 48).

We also took more contested marks than the Dopers....15 to 11 (Wood/Wilke/Owens/Marshall and others).

And we had more marks inside 50 than them. 50% more in fact

[Devilhead]

We got walloped on clearances

Pull down pants walloped

[Scollop]

Yeah sure... total clearances was a walloping but

13 - 15 for centre clearances is not a walloping

The most important stat as far I can guage was our inside 50's. As ace suggested we got it in their directly and quickly

We also won the free kick count

[meher baba]

The clearances, and the midfield in general, were quite a problem last night. It was only our fitness and our superb defensive work - both our back six and our team defence - that stopped them from running over the top of us in the second half.

I'm not a massive fan of Bytel, but I reckon he has to come in next week - or certainly against the Pies - to give us a little more oomph in the engine room. What I'd do is to play Paton in place of Wood and have Clark playing a bit further back to cover for Webster. However, Lyon clearly does not like to muck around with his structure, so we could well see Highmore come in for Webster and Paton play in Wood's spot.

BTW, I think Lyon is generally right about structure: I reckon around 80 per cent plus of posters on BF or SS over the past week wanted to drop one of Higgins or Butler and bring in Bytel or Sharman or someone. How does that idea look now?

[spert]

Efficient use of the ball is how you get the maximum result. Crouch did pretty well, but the Bombers sat on him during the middle of the game and got on top around the midfield as a result- but we got back on top again. We didn't have an effective KP forward and thankfully Higgins and Butler finally got on the scoreboard, but we can only get better when King comes back. Let's see if any Sandy Saint puts their hand up for selection today.

[Lennylegs]

The clearances, and the midfield in general, were quite a problem last night. It was only our fitness and our superb defensive work - both our back six and our team defence - that stopped them from running over the top of us in the second half.

I'm not a massive fan of Bytel, but I reckon he has to come in next week - or certainly against the Pies - to give us a little more oomph in the engine room. What I'd do is to play Paton in place of Wood and have Clark playing a bit further back to cover for Webster. However, Lyon clearly does not like to muck around with his structure, so we could well see Highmore come in for Webster and Paton play in Wood's spot.

BTW, I think Lyon is generally right about structure: I reckon around 80 per cent plus of posters on BF or SS over the past week wanted to drop one of Higgins or Butler and bring in Bytel or Sharman or someone. How does that idea look now?

Whoever was calling to drop Higgo and Butler doesn't really understand the crux of our current gameplan. They're as important as anyone. Same with Gresh. Their ability to create forward half turnovers has been incredible and a big reason we're 3-0.

[theoracle]

One of the big things we are doing is letting the opposition pass the ball around once they control it - we guard space like junkyard dogs, let the other team chip it, we don't care, knowing at some point we will force a turnover and set sail for our F50. So, our Uncontested possession count will always be less than the opposition's, but we 'won' Contested: when you've got it, you can have it, but when it's up for grabs, we will beat you then run with it.

[B.M]

Coaches use statistics to analyse games

Ross quotes stats at press conferences more than any other coach

Important stats are the most important measure of a game

Not the ‘eye test’ of a simple supporter

[Teflon]

I usually assess the 1 stat that matters
Final scores
We are doing well there at present

[Vortex]

I reckon around 80 per cent plus of posters on BF or SS over the past week wanted to drop one of Higgins or Butler and bring in Bytel or Sharman or someone. How does that idea look now?

I'll bet you that long after Sharman has been delisted there will still be supporters insisting he be selected to give us a tall marking option in the forward line and use his natural running patterns.

Looks like they are using Sharman as an outside receiver in defence at Sandy, probably trying to use his field kicking to be the outlet kick from stoppages.

Bytel working hard in the first quarter though.

[CQ SAINT]

Higgins let me down. I predicted 5.

Sharman is not competing with Higgins. He is an alternative to Cordy.
Max Heath may come passed Sharman as he is a marking target, can ruck, and at 204cm he would compliment Caminiti and allow Marshall to come forward more often.
Owens should be the one to play Woods role. His 11 contested possessions and his physical attributes are the most suited. He needs to hold more marks but he gets his hands on enough and he is a genuine contested ball winner.
So, if Owens moved further into defence, Cordy will probably stay in with Caminiti or Heath shares the ruck and Cordy is managed.
Bytel is a certainty.

Sinclair Howard Wilkie
Stocker Battle NWM
Owens Ross Hill
Phillipou Caminiti Higgins
Butler Heath Gresham

Marshall Crouch Clark

Bytel, Byrnes, Windhager, Paton

Highmore Sub.

Witts will dominate the ruck. So, Marshall pushing forward or back will do. Owens won't be far behind and our forward line should be well up the ground with 204 cms of Heath 1 on 1 with the speedsters closing in.

Who knows but I'm dead keen to find out.

[ace]

Versus Carlton the Saints Lost Again Big Time

Carlton : St Kilda
Disposals
Kicks 256 : 220
Handballs 190 : 140
[flash=]Inside 50s 52 : 56[/flash]
Disposal Efficiency 76.5 : 73.3
Efficiency Inside 50 46.2% 44.6%

[Otiman]

Stats aren't necessarily "good" or "bad", they are just stats.

They can help tell the story of a game and point out where shortfalls are. For example if you went "we didn't kick enough goals so we lost", you wouldn't know where to improve during the week.

"We lost contested ball and had too few F50 entries. The opposition scored freely from turnovers" Is a better start to turning it around.

I think we all grew up on stats as a measure of individual success. With role players and team defense this is not the case anymore.

The only real individual stats worth looking at are Contested Possessions, Contested Marks, Clearances, Tackles, Disposal Eff%/Clangers. I would even go as far as saying Goals are less individual than these stats.

[ace]

Versus Carlton the Saints Lost Again Big Time

Carlton : St Kilda
Disposals 446 : 360
Kicks 256 : 220
Handballs 190 : 140
Inside 50s 52 : 56
Disposal Efficiency 76.5 : 73.3
Efficiency Inside 50 46.2% : 44.6%
Free Kicks 20 : 14
Hit Outs 36 : 30
All Clearances 31 : 32
Centre Clearances 13 : 9
Stoppage Clearances 18 : 23
Contested Possessions 140 : 120
Uncontested Possessions 304 : 231
Turnovers 68 : 68
Possession Match 46% : 39%
Possession Final Quarter 49% : 40%
Possession Last 10 Minutes 37% : 39%
All Marks 140 : 101
Marks Inside 50 9 : 12
Contested Marks 14 : 8
Tackles Inside 50 10 :12
Bounces 0 : 2
One Percenters 46 : 39
Interchanges 73/55 : 73/75

[Otiman]

Versus Carlton the Saints Lost Again Big Time

I reckon the coaching team have a different set of stats they are working to, which will be a closely guarded secret.

[ace]

Oh and the only statistic that counts
8G.12B = 60P : 12G.10B = 82P

Source = AFL
https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/4835#team-stats

Despite playing around the boundary the Saints are clearly MORE DIRECT than their opponents.
A massive discrepancy in disposals but Saints coaches have taught their guys to use the ball wisely when they have it and force opponents to waste possessions.

[CQ SAINT]

Versus Carlton the Saints Lost Again Big Time

Carlton : St Kilda
Disposals
Kicks 256 : 220
Handballs 190 : 140
[flash=]Inside 50s 52 : 56[/flash]
Disposal Efficiency 76.5 : 73.3
Efficiency Inside 50 46.2% 44.6%

And?

[B.M]

Stats can tell you how a game is played

Our team defence allows (in fact persuading) opposition to kick it around unopposed in their back half

Whilst the Team defence sets up through the middle and across our HB hoping for a turn over.

It’s why we allowed Daicos to get 40 and half of Carlton’s team to get 35+

Only Cripps in qtr2 was damaging

[Yorkeys]

Footy stats people have not figured out how to get the qualitative aspect of possessions measured. Like differentiating a try saving tackle vs standard grapple.
Carlton should have capitalised on Cripps early dominance but their chaps lacked composure because of our direct and indirect pressure and eventually wilted.
We grafted a win against the weight of possession.
I think that's a better stat than winning against a clearly inferior side by 20 goals.
It's a statistical indicator of a capacity to do ok in a final.
Even though there is 4 points for both.

[tony74]

I reckon around 80 per cent plus of posters on BF or SS over the past week wanted to drop one of Higgins or Butler and bring in Bytel or Sharman or someone. How does that idea look now?

I'll bet you that long after Sharman has been delisted there will still be supporters insisting he be selected to give us a tall marking option in the forward line and use his natural running patterns.

Looks like they are using Sharman as an outside receiver in defence at Sandy, probably trying to use his field kicking to be the outlet kick from stoppages.

Bytel working hard in the first quarter though.

They’re working on Sharman as being a replacement to Mason ( if needed ). Much improved stamina, can take a mark, and decent delivery. Forget the key forward stuff

[CQ SAINT]

Stats can tell you how a game is played

Our team defence allows (in fact persuading) opposition to kick it around unopposed in their back half

Whilst the Team defence sets up through the middle and across our HB hoping for a turn over.

It’s why we allowed Daicos to get 40 and half of Carlton’s team to get 35+

Only Cripps in qtr2 was damaging

I think already said that, while everyone on here was gushing about how good Nick Daicos was on the day. We gave him a lot of freedom and he wasted most of it feeding our rebound pressure.

[B.M]

Daicos was good

He moved to ball forward pretty effectively and we lost

Next time we will approach him differently

[Otiman]

Footy stats people have not figured out how to get the qualitative aspect of possessions measured. Like differentiating a try saving tackle vs standard grapple.

AI could do it on the fly in a few years. Given enough footage and prompts to learn from, AI could do real time "vision review" of players and prompt coaches to react (or not).

I don't think we will see it on the TV though.

[ROLS-LEE]

If you were to look only at the game statistics (excluding goals & behinds) you would conclude that St Kilda lost to all 3 of the Dockers, the Doggies and the Dopers.
That's because St Kilda had less of almost everything but still won the games with a comfortable margin.

I did not see anything of the first 2 games as I was still in France trying to ski but actually fighting my first encounter with Covid.
(They don't give a toss about Covid in Europe now, everyone just gets on with their life as if it were a cold or the flu).
I recovered just in time to travel back to Oz.
But I did see the Dopers game on TV and it was clear that St Kilda played DIRECT football.
I assume that they did the same in the first 2 games.
Just get the ball and head for home fast, no mucking around.
You don't need to gather statistics, just goals.
Make it so hard for the opponents that they waste a lot of their statistics trying get into better positions to exit defence and to score.

I like what I saw especially when on paper the Saints depleted line up should have got flogged.

Its a combination of Ross Lyon defense, Bomber Thompson attack. (maybe with the help of Enright)