Half way - take a breath

[older saint]

Sure there will be a few of these type analysis.

4th ob ladder 8-3 123.8%
Grade for the Season so far based on the league B+ - based on expectation pre-round 1 A

Positives:

- Team is fit starting the season. Ability to run our games and being the best 3rd qtr team in the league are a testament to this.
- Ability against experienced top 8 teams to come from behind int he 3rd and run over the top shows a belief in what they do and each other - Rich, Geelong
- No blow out losses
- Seem to be more integrity in selection that before and accountability. Selection also seems to be more position based which is what good teams do and provides consistency in play
- Improvement in Battle, McKenzie, Long, Higgins,Wood,provides depth to the group as younger players push up also
- players moving to A grade or close to : Sinclair, Wilkie,
- Young players contributions in games and ability to hold their spots to just come in for a token game and out (Owens rnd 1 excluded)
- Ryder, Gresham, available
- upside with Clark and Steele to return to the side

Negatives / improvement:
- Bad goal kicking cost us a win v Port which could hurt at seasons end top 4 chance
- Injuries - all get them and created opportunity but Coffield and Hayes both i feel would have been significantly better with a full season.
- Couple of performances against poor teams . Have done enough to win- North and Adelaide which is good to win when not playing great but Hawthorn is the only team we really have toweled up.

Fate sits in our hands.
11 games to play:

- Geelong and Brisbane away
- Ess, WC, Haw
- Swans (2) , Carlton, WB, Freo(Marvel) , Bris (Marvel)

If we go
*6-5 we end up 14-8
*7-4 we end up 15-7

In recent times 15 will generally get you top 4 - occasionally 14 can with a good percentage although i suspect 15 needed with more low wining teams this year. Last year 6 wins was clearly in the 8 not so this year.

[shanegrambeau]

Sure there will be a few of these type analysis.

Fate sits in our hands.
11 games to play:

- Geelong and Brisbane away
- Ess, WC, Haw
- Swans (2) , Carlton, WB, Freo(Marvel) , Bris (Marvel)

I see us winning four of those games.

Should be enough for a finish in the 8.

Then we win three finals.

I agree on your positives/

I disagree with the negatives re. injuries.

We have been blessed by the injury Gods.

The injuries other teams have had ...look at Carlton.

Hayes
He played one good game, which we lost.

Coffield
Fringe player, barely starting 22 last year.

Steele
lost two games thus far. The significance of steel will cost us moving forward, but thus far, not bad

Another positive is few off field scandals or the ones simmereing have been effectively quietened.

It's been a brilliant start.

[saintsRrising]

Of the top 10 teams we have the hardest run home. We have 8 games against teams in the current 8 (We play the Lions and the Swans twice). The second half of the season fixture is more difficult than our fixture in the first 11 games.

I have gone to 10 as the Pies have a much easier run home than the teams above them. Port also have an easy remaining fixture.


Holding onto Top 4 will be a difficult task due to this. It is even possible that we could drop out of the 8.

We will need to play well to stay in the 8, and extremely well to stay in the Top 4. % may well prove to be crucial for us.



Our best has been brilliant. But we are also often had very poor quarters and especially in the first half. We need to be better for longer in our games.

If we are good enough we will enter the finals battle hardened against the better teams.

[kosifantutti]

The way things are shaping up, 12 wins and an OK percentage might not be enough. But I’m confident we can win at least 5 more to get us to thirteen.

19 wins would definitely be enough

[bangaulegend]

Why the f--k do we play 2 teams we haven't played yet twice in the next 11 games but we don't play Collinwood again after playing them in round 1 & we play Freo twice before we play the Eagle once. Just a crazy fu--ed up piece of sh-t IMO

[1971]

Agree bangaulegend

[shanegrambeau]

Don’t mention the fact that we play one or two games at the G for the whole f season!

[Crossy66]

Why the f--k do we play 2 teams we haven't played yet twice in the next 11 games but we don't play Collinwood again after playing them in round 1 & we play Freo twice before we play the Eagle once. Just a crazy fu--ed up piece of sh-t IMO

The AFL are in the entertainment business. It has nothing to do with a level playing field . Its a heavily compromised competition

[asiu]

If we are good enough we will enter the finals battle hardened against the better teams.

IF ....


***

whatever happens ,
this coming second half of the year
WILL be good for us

[older saint]

Of the top 10 teams we have the hardest run home. We have 8 games against teams in the current 8 (We play the Lions and the Swans twice). The second half of the season fixture is more difficult than our fixture in the first 11 games.

I have gone to 10 as the Pies have a much easier run home than the teams above them. Port also have an easy remaining fixture.


Holding onto Top 4 will be a difficult task due to this. It is even possible that we could drop out of the 8.

We will need to play well to stay in the 8, and extremely well to stay in the Top 4. % may well prove to be crucial for us.



Our best has been brilliant. But we are also often had very poor quarters and especially in the first half. We need to be better for longer in our games.

If we are good enough we will enter the finals battle hardened against the better teams.

If we miss the 8 with an 8-3 record at the half way mark ( barring a tidal wave of injuries ) it will be the beginning of the end IMO. We may also make history (will need to confirm this).

[diddley]

I think one of the other positives that you didn’t mention up top, is that Max King is second in the Coleman. He has taken a massive step to be one of the best FF in the game.
2 more positives about that fact.
- I don’t think he is even close to reaching his ceiling yet. When he goes off, it will be like an explosion.
- we aren’t completely reliant on him to win all the games every time. It’s great that he can win us a game, but this season has been more about the team winning it, and him being apart of that team.

[kosifantutti]

Of the top 10 teams we have the hardest run home. We have 8 games against teams in the current 8 (We play the Lions and the Swans twice). The second half of the season fixture is more difficult than our fixture in the first 11 games.

I have gone to 10 as the Pies have a much easier run home than the teams above them. Port also have an easy remaining fixture.


Holding onto Top 4 will be a difficult task due to this. It is even possible that we could drop out of the 8.

We will need to play well to stay in the 8, and extremely well to stay in the Top 4. % may well prove to be crucial for us.



Our best has been brilliant. But we are also often had very poor quarters and especially in the first half. We need to be better for longer in our games.

If we are good enough we will enter the finals battle hardened against the better teams.

If we miss the 8 with an 8-3 record at the half way mark ( barring a tidal wave of injuries ) it will be the beginning of the end IMO. We may also make history (will need to confirm this).

Collingwood 2015. Were 8-3 going into the bye and lost their next six. Finished 10th.

[saintsRrising]

If we miss the 8 with an 8-3 record at the half way mark ( barring a tidal wave of injuries ) it will be the beginning of the end IMO. We may also make history (will need to confirm this).

I think we will make the 8.

However I was just making the point that our next 11 games are a harder group of games than our first 11 based on our opponents.
Dogs and or/Tigers could both easily make the 8, and I don't want us to be one of the club/s squeezed out for them to do so.


So we as a team will need to play very well. And even more so to hang on to a Top 4 finish.

If we ended up with a 16-6 record that would mean to me that we have played better in the second half of the season than the first half.

[Beno88]

Essendon, Bulldogs, Hawthorn and West Coast are must wins.

Need to win at least two of our four at Marvel vs Fremantle, Carlton, Brisbane and Sydney.

Brisbane, Sydney & Geelong away will all be very tough. Any wins from those are a bonus.

Six wins and we're 6th or higher.

[older saint]

Of the top 10 teams we have the hardest run home. We have 8 games against teams in the current 8 (We play the Lions and the Swans twice). The second half of the season fixture is more difficult than our fixture in the first 11 games.

I have gone to 10 as the Pies have a much easier run home than the teams above them. Port also have an easy remaining fixture.


Holding onto Top 4 will be a difficult task due to this. It is even possible that we could drop out of the 8.

We will need to play well to stay in the 8, and extremely well to stay in the Top 4. % may well prove to be crucial for us.



Our best has been brilliant. But we are also often had very poor quarters and especially in the first half. We need to be better for longer in our games.

If we are good enough we will enter the finals battle hardened against the better teams.

If we miss the 8 with an 8-3 record at the half way mark ( barring a tidal wave of injuries ) it will be the beginning of the end IMO. We may also make history (will need to confirm this).

Collingwood 2015. Were 8-3 going into the bye and lost their next six. Finished 10th.

thanks
Saves me some time and couldn't happen to a nicer mob either

[older saint]

If we miss the 8 with an 8-3 record at the half way mark ( barring a tidal wave of injuries ) it will be the beginning of the end IMO. We may also make history (will need to confirm this).

I think we will make the 8.

However I was just making the point that our next 11 games are a harder group of games than our first 11 based on our opponents.
Dogs and or/Tigers could both easily make the 8, and I don't want us to be one of the club/s squeezed out for them to do so.


So we as a team will need to play very well. And even more so to hang on to a Top 4 finish.

If we ended up with a 16-6 record that would mean to me that we have played better in the second half of the season than the first half.

I expect to split the 50/50 games , win the must wins and prob lose Geel and Bris away.

Rich to me are a little like us 2011 just hanging on.
WB I expect to improve, especially when Bruce returns although back line is a worry
Sydney a bit of an enigma side - bit like their weather mostly good but every so often can put in a shocker.
Weitering out for Carlton is a HUGE loss for them.
Like where we sit at the moment.

[shanegrambeau]

If we miss the 8 with an 8-3 record at the half way mark ( barring a tidal wave of injuries ) it will be the beginning of the end IMO. We may also make history (will need to confirm this).

I think we will make the 8.

However I was just making the point that our next 11 games are a harder group of games than our first 11 based on our opponents.
Dogs and or/Tigers could both easily make the 8, and I don't want us to be one of the club/s squeezed out for them to do so.


So we as a team will need to play very well. And even more so to hang on to a Top 4 finish.

If we ended up with a 16-6 record that would mean to me that we have played better in the second half of the season than the first half.

I expect to split the 50/50 games , win the must wins and prob lose Geel and Bris away.

Rich to me are a little like us 2011 just hanging on.
WB I expect to improve, especially when Bruce returns although back line is a worry
Sydney a bit of an enigma side - bit like their weather mostly good but every so often can put in a shocker.
Weitering out for Carlton is a HUGE loss for them.
Like where we sit at the moment.

Carlton's ship has been hit by three torpedoes.
McKay, McGovern, Wietering...
They'll drop off...and still beat us as usual.

I think Hawthorn will be tough too, possibly Essendon.

I think we'll pinch one of the harder ones, but I expect no more than four-five more wins, unless injuries to other teams really kick in.
Close call, but just scrape into the 8.

[older saint]

If we miss the 8 with an 8-3 record at the half way mark ( barring a tidal wave of injuries ) it will be the beginning of the end IMO. We may also make history (will need to confirm this).

I think we will make the 8.

However I was just making the point that our next 11 games are a harder group of games than our first 11 based on our opponents.
Dogs and or/Tigers could both easily make the 8, and I don't want us to be one of the club/s squeezed out for them to do so.


So we as a team will need to play very well. And even more so to hang on to a Top 4 finish.

If we ended up with a 16-6 record that would mean to me that we have played better in the second half of the season than the first half.

I expect to split the 50/50 games , win the must wins and prob lose Geel and Bris away.

Rich to me are a little like us 2011 just hanging on.
WB I expect to improve, especially when Bruce returns although back line is a worry
Sydney a bit of an enigma side - bit like their weather mostly good but every so often can put in a shocker.
Weitering out for Carlton is a HUGE loss for them.
Like where we sit at the moment.

Carlton's ship has been hit by three torpedoes.
McKay, McGovern, Wietering...
They'll drop off...and still beat us as usual.

I think Hawthorn will be tough too, possibly Essendon.

I think we'll pinch one of the harder ones, but I expect no more than four-five more wins, unless injuries to other teams really kick in.
Close call, but just scrape into the 8.

I love the scars of a long time saints supporter. We all have them. Post 2011 I declared i will not see a Premiership in my lifetime. Having recently turned 50 I are perhaps a bit more philosophical and content with my realisation 10 years ago. Also allows me to be a bit more objective , knowing ultimately its going nowhere but will be a good ride.

Essendon are a rabble - lucky North are worse, Hawthorn will fade and Carlton - tend to agree although McGovern from Carlton out a loss ( said no one ever!).

[kosifantutti]

]

Carlton's ship has been hit by three torpedoes.
McKay, McGovern, Wietering...
They'll drop off...and still beat us as usual.

Have you watched any footy this century?

[shanegrambeau]

]

Carlton's ship has been hit by three torpedoes.
McKay, McGovern, Wietering...
They'll drop off...and still beat us as usual.

Have you watched any footy this century?

Yes I have.

I have watched Carlton the rabble, year after year down misery lane...humiliated and beaten, and i have watched our mini-revivals, some of them mid-season, and us getting some momentum, and then, come late season, round 17/18/19 thereabouts...we get to play them. We are favorites everytime. And everytime we manage to lose. ...OK, that' how it looks the last five years, where the playing lists, coaching and team culture still have relevance to each other.

[kosifantutti]

We have won 6 out of 8 since 2016.

[desertsaint]

Take a breath. Have a reward. Go to the cinema...

[shanegrambeau]

We have won 6 out of 8 since 2016.

2019 and 2021 end of season losses

Caused major cognitive distortion

[Sainter_Dad]

Sure there will be a few of these type analysis.

Fate sits in our hands.
11 games to play:

- Geelong and Brisbane away
- Ess, WC, Haw
- Swans (2) , Carlton, WB, Freo(Marvel) , Bris (Marvel)

I see us winning four of those games.

4 from 11???

So:
Essendon
Hawthorn
West Coast

and only 1 from the rest - if that is the case - we will win precisely 0 finals

[Waltzing St Kilda]

1999.

7-4. Beat the Cats at Kardinia Park.

Then came the Hawthorn debacle. 63 points up and we still lost.

Didn't recover for five years.