Draw flatters us

[Teflon]

Don’t get me wrong love winning and like the way we’ve gone about it playing some kids but just looking at this years draw has me nervous.

Last year we battled injuries and fitness - think we’ve fixed fitness and it’s clear we are running out games.

But this AFL fixture is so lopsided it’s making a joke of the latter part of the 8

We’ve beaten - a toothless Tigers, GC in Melb and a young Hawks (lost to the best side we’ve played in Pies), beat depleted Freo at home.

Last year Bombers took our spot in the 8…..fast forward this year…..media calling them rabble ….they’ve played??
Geelong, Melbourne,Brisbane, Fremantle and Adelaide (beat only Adelaide).

Point is how do you truly get a handle on where your side is at in a comp where making the 8 or not depends on how soft your draw is???

I’m wrapt we are winning but will reserve judgment just yet..

[Saintmike65]

Don’t get me wrong love winning and like the way we’ve gone about it playing some kids but just looking at this years draw has me nervous.

Last year we battled injuries and fitness - think we’ve fixed fitness and it’s clear we are running out games.

But this AFL fixture is so lopsided it’s making a joke of the latter part of the 8

We’ve beaten - a toothless Tigers, GC in Melb and a young Hawks (lost to the best side we’ve played in Pies), beat depleted Freo at home.


There is too much focus on the previous year’s form guide.
Out of last year’s finalists, Essendon, Giants, Port and even the Bulldogs are vulnerable.
Don’t underestimate the win in Perth, as interstate wins are gold!
Hawthorn were travelling really well, Richmond are still a dangerous opponent and Gold Coast are always hard to beat early in the season.
You can only beat who you’re fixtured to play against, so being 4-1 & a % of 132…not too shabby!!

Last year Bombers took our spot in the 8…..fast forward this year…..media calling them rabble ….they’ve played??
Geelong, Melbourne,Brisbane, Fremantle and Adelaide (beat only Adelaide).

Point is how do you truly get a handle on where your side is at in a comp where making the 8 or not depends on how soft your draw is???

I’m wrapt we are winning but will reserve judgment just yet..

[diddley]

You can only beat the team in front of you.
In the years past, we would have dropped even the easy games. None of this come from behind, or storming past a team with 10 goals in a row. That’s what I’m excited about most, not just the wins, but how we have been able to pivot and beat an opposition.

[bigred]

No offence mate, but I cannot agree. I don't really buy into this thinking.

You can only beat who they put in front of you.

Melbourne so far have beaten something like 12th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 18th.
Does that mean the draw flatters them?

Fact of the matter is, we have beaten four of the five teams we have played and had chances to win the one we dropped.

We have passed 80% of the tests we have faced and have some momentum moving forward.

We have kicked the second most points, a goal behind brisbane and our points against are the 5th lowest.

We are moving. In a few weeks we start to play the sides around us. Namely Melbourne and Geelong.

Time will tell, however the way we are looking, we should actually be pretty competitive against those sides.

P.S
The upcoming Melbourne game has a similar feeling to Geelong in Round 14, 2009.

[Goose is king]

Use the eye test. We are significantly better than last year and we weren’t that far off the eight. If you are worried about who we have played look at who we haven’t played. We haven’t played any of the current bottom 6. If we can beat the sides we have we will beat the bottom 6. Max King has gone to next level, as have many players really. We are a scoring team and the back 6 are gelling too. There appears to be some very average sides this season. Like Joey said on the first crack last night I can’t see any of the current top 7 missing finals

[Saintmike65]

Too much focus on last season’s form guide.
Don’t underestimate the Freo win, wins interstate are gold.
Richmond are still dangerous, albeit not as good as they were.
Hawthorn were travelling beautifully at the time and Goldcoast are always tricky early season.
Reality is there will likely be at least 3 new top 8 spots available this year…4-1 and a % of 132 is pretty handy!!

[shanegrambeau]

Fair play Teflon.

We were also 4-1 in Richo's final year.
We know how that went.

But we are so much better!

Are we not?

I had this very question in my mind, so I had a dig. I wasn't watching footy then.
But reading the fan post archives from 2019 is like reading something from another century! It is such a different world.
Daniel McKenzie, whom I thought was a dud, was killing it for a while.

We must be in a better head space. The fixture has helped, but how did we beat Freo, in WA? Our loss to Collingwood is such a dog's breakfast, I can't face it. I have blocked it from my mind.

Do we have a return match with Richmond? Let's make a judgment then.

I think we are caught up in euphoria now. King and Sinclair have been a massive boost. Crouch quiet. achiever, DMAc is back. Hill has been huge. Even Sat was a quiet game for him, but 440 meters gained, second only to jack S. Ross is working harder. Long is in there doing his bit and seems disciplined..and lovely long field kicks.
What a great week to soak it up.

This week could be a comeuppance. How I hope not.

Funnily enough, instead of the forward line/mid line that we have lamented, our defence was a bit confused on Saturday.

[Sainter_Dad]

Ladder position creates ladder position.

If you beat the team that you meet - you go up - they go down
So - teams that we have beaten - including Hawthorn would easily take our place if we had not beaten them.

Assuming Hawthorn lose to Geelong today - but that Hawthorn AND Richmond had beaten us then the Ladder positions would be

7th - Hawthorn 12
8th - Richmond 12
9th - St Kilda 8 points

So even if we maintained a percentage higher than Collingwood's (106) the best we could hope to be sitting is 9th having lost to 7th (Hawks) and 8th (Tigers)

The same goes for Fremantle

So successful teams generate their own ladder position - same with Melbourne - the way they have demolished teams has led them to have low percentages and therefore sit at the bottom of the range of win/loss

I love how we are playing
I love that we are actually kicking good scores and not just 'grinding out wins'
I love that the back line is functioning well
I love that we currently have a leading Coleman Tally player (and 3 in the race)

Do not discount that we are sitting 4th - having beaten 2nd and have a VERY healthy percentage

Would you feel more comfortable if we had beaten Western Bulldogs/Essendon/Port Adelaide - all Top 8 last year rather than Dockers/Hawks/Rich/Gold Coast - there are actually some impressive scalps in that lot

[darylcowie]

Don’t get me wrong love winning and like the way we’ve gone about it playing some kids but just looking at this years draw has me nervous.

Last year we battled injuries and fitness - think we’ve fixed fitness and it’s clear we are running out games.

But this AFL fixture is so lopsided it’s making a joke of the latter part of the 8

We’ve beaten - a toothless Tigers, GC in Melb and a young Hawks (lost to the best side we’ve played in Pies), beat depleted Freo at home.

Last year Bombers took our spot in the 8…..fast forward this year…..media calling them rabble ….they’ve played??
Geelong, Melbourne,Brisbane, Fremantle and Adelaide (beat only Adelaide).


Point is how do you truly get a handle on where your side is at in a comp where making the 8 or not depends on how soft your draw is???

I’m wrapt we are winning but will reserve judgment just yet..

IMHO we should be 5-0 based on form.
We were 4-1 in 2019 under Richo and in 2nd place with a similarly soft draw.
We won't beat rhe Dees, but if we beat the Cats or even the Giants and Power away I will start to get excited.
Win two of our next four and we are in the mix for finals.

[Jacks Back]

No offence mate, but I cannot agree. I don't really buy into this thinking.

You can only beat who they put in front of you.

Melbourne so far have beaten something like 12th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 18th.
Does that mean the draw flatters them?

Fact of the matter is, we have beaten four of the five teams we have played and had chances to win the one we dropped.

We have passed 80% of the tests we have faced and have some momentum moving forward.

We have kicked the second most points, a goal behind brisbane and our points against are the 5th lowest.

We are moving. In a few weeks we start to play the sides around us. Namely Melbourne and Geelong.

Time will tell, however the way we are looking, we should actually be pretty competitive against those sides.

P.S
The upcoming Melbourne game has a similar feeling to Geelong in Round 14, 2009.

While that is true, we have kicked the least points for the winning team this round.

[B.M]

Good post

And the reason to not get over excited

Need to win 2 of the next 4 to be taken seriously

[samuraisaint]

The win against Fremantle in Perth is looking better by the week. They could be this season's bolter.
And as for them being depleted - so were we.
The next four weeks are the litmus test of how far we can go in 2022.
Giants - fifth last season interstate.
Port Adelaide - fourth last season interstate
Melbourne - reigning premiers at the MCG.
Geelong - third last season and Grand Finalist in 2020 (home).
That is four tough matches back to back to back to back.
At the beginning of the year I would have said we would lose all four. Now I think we should win two out of the four.
We match up well on the Giants and Melbourne so we are a real show in those two.

[The_Dud]

And here I was thinking the AFL purposely gave us the worst draw every single year?!

[Sainter_Dad]

And here I was thinking the AFL purposely gave us the worst draw every single year?!

Not only do you have a one track mind - the train also only goes one way

Curly disrupts Game Day Threads - and has (in the past had the decency to start another thread)

You try and disrupt EVERY thread

[perfectionist]

Yes, I think only three teams are good enough to make the final 8 this year.

[saynta]

And here I was thinking the AFL purposely gave us the worst draw every single year?!

[The_Dud]

And here I was thinking the AFL purposely gave us the worst draw every single year?!

Not only do you have a one track mind - the train also only goes one way

Curly disrupts Game Day Threads - and has (in the past had the decency to start another thread)

You try and disrupt EVERY thread

Discussing the draw in a thread titled “Draw flatters us” is disrupting it?

We get told as soon as the draw is released every year that we’ve been screwed, hard done by, worst in the league! Every. Single. Season.

Am I not allowed to question those claims? Are those posts beyond reproach?

I think our draw has been fair previously, and this year no different. I don’t think we’ve been flattered, we’ve played some good teams and in form teams. Freo is second on the ladder!

Also I’d love examples of me trying to ‘disrupt’ other threads. Shouldn’t be hard as it is ‘EVERY’ one. But I fear in doing this you may be disrupting this thread…

[SaintDippa]

It's the way we're playing that's important.
The run and rapid ball movement into F50 is great prep for the top4s.

[GSG]

TEFLON, this is a bit harsh. Ladder position up to about round 6 or 7 is always precarious. But I agree, the next two games (GWS and Port) are absolute must wins, as a loss to Melbourne is pretty much guaranteed. Travelling to Manuka Oval and then to Cairns where the temperature is still around the 30 degree mark with high humidity, the team will be well and truly cooked. I was hoping for a minor loss, but I’m not too optimistic about this either.

[SunnyErnie]

Don’t get me wrong love winning and like the way we’ve gone about it playing some kids but just looking at this years draw has me nervous.

Last year we battled injuries and fitness - think we’ve fixed fitness and it’s clear we are running out games.

But this AFL fixture is so lopsided it’s making a joke of the latter part of the 8

We’ve beaten - a toothless Tigers, GC in Melb and a young Hawks (lost to the best side we’ve played in Pies), beat depleted Freo at home.

Last year Bombers took our spot in the 8…..fast forward this year…..media calling them rabble ….they’ve played??
Geelong, Melbourne,Brisbane, Fremantle and Adelaide (beat only Adelaide).

Point is how do you truly get a handle on where your side is at in a comp where making the 8 or not depends on how soft your draw is???

I’m wrapt we are winning but will reserve judgment just yet..

Eight rounds in has always been the landmark when you have a fair idea how each team is travelling.

If we are still in the top 8 by round 8 we will play finals IMHO.

Actually I'm prepared to say that if we beat the Giants this week and then the Power we will 100% make the top 8.

[Yorkeys]

Come on Teflon, admit it, you are uncomfortable with us winning regularly, consecutively.

Understandable, change is difficult to deal with. And so often we have had our hearts broken. But I really like riding this wave.

So what draw should we have been given?

And relating Essendon's form to ours as a comparator is a bit of a long bow, yes? Plus I think they have been without a few key top players most of the season, so could not expect to be as competitive as last year.

Richmond, Hawthorn, Collingwood, and Suns are good sides, Freo is very good. Enjoy! Reserve too long and the wave will have moved on.

[SunnyErnie]

Come on Teflon, admit it, you are uncomfortable with us winning regularly, consecutively.

Understandable, change is difficult to deal with. And so often we have had our hearts broken. But I really like riding this wave.

So what draw should we have been given?

And relating Essendon's form to ours as a comparator is a bit of a long bow, yes? Plus I think they have been without a few key top players most of the season, so could not expect to be as competitive as last year.

Richmond, Hawthorn, Collingwood, and Suns are good sides, Freo is very good. Enjoy! Reserve too long and the wave will have moved on.

Collingfilth are crap!!!

[desertsaint]

no it's a fair call. we do appear to be playing a lot better, but form is fluid and flattered by those without. the next few games will give us a better indicator of where we're at, but so far, hard to complain really.

[skeptic]

It’s all high fives and back slaps at the moment and there’s a lot of marvelling at our great depth and selection challenges

Wood, Butler, Owens, Ross, Paton, Hill, Battle, Byrnes and Higgins

I don’t remember calls of undroppable after rd1.

The challenge is good form when we’re up against it

[Impatient Sainter]

I understand where you are coming from Teflon, in the past our trust/hearts has been broken so regularly. But I think this year is different as the group have really knuckled down and are prepared to do the hard work. On top of that we finally have some great kids coming through and a hint of depth on our list.