I think we'll go alright this year.

[Beno88]

Despite the excitement of a new season and a (hopefully) normal season, this forum reads like we’ve just been handed our 28th wooden spoon. You’d find more positivity in a Kyiv bomb shelter. I get it though, pessimism is intrenched in the red, white and black blood.

All the negativity compelled me to share my thoughts ahead of the 2022 season, thoughts which no doubt many will disagree with.

2020 gave us a taste of what this list is capable of with a clean bill of health, a bit of luck and a favourable draw. Last year was a step back, but entirely predictable, especially with excess injuries and a difficult draw. What came as a shock were the capitulations. We lost heart, spirit and desire for about 6 weeks. By the time it came back, it was too late. That said, many speak like we were nowhere near it last season, whereas the fact is we missed the finals by one game and percentage. In an average year, we still weren’t that far off. It may have been a longer season, but we actually won the same amount of home & away games in 2021 as we did in 2020.

In my opinion, 2021 was the kick in the pants we needed. Several players got ahead of themselves post 2020, and two comfortable pre-season wins had them cocky as ever ahead of round 1. The next two months brought them back to earth. That, coupled with Melbourne’s success (who’s 2020 season mirrored our 2021) will act as both inspiration and a wake up call.

The core of the list remains largely unchanged from 2020. Only Jake Carlisle & Jack Lonie are gone from the side that registered our first finals win in a decade (Coffield obviously won’t play either). What has changed is experience. Callum Wilkie, Rowan Marshall, Max King, Ryan Byrnes, Josh Battle and Jack Bytel have vastly increased their experience at AFL level. The first four mentioned, all now critical to our success, present and future.

Then there’s the additions – Jack Higgins, Brad Crouch, Cooper Sharman, Tom Highmore, Mason Wood – and a couple of blokes who missed almost all of 2021, Ben Paton and Jade Gresham. Make no mistake, Gresham is an elite addition to our side. There’s also the ruck improvements. Now I’m not saying Tom Campbell, Jack Hayes & Max Heath are going to lock in senior spots, and Ryder almost certainly won’t play more than 15 games, but all can provide AFL standard options, something Hunter and McKernan did not. Even if Marshall goes down, we have adequate back up. Not stars, but capable.

This all leads me to believe the 2022 St Kilda team is actually better than what we had in 2020, and will vastly benefit from playing more regularly at Docklands in front our fans, something we’ve only done 5 times in two years. We have two elite mids in Steele and Gresham, complimented by Jones & Crouch. We have two magnificent rucks in Marshall & Ryder. We have an emerging superstar in Max King and the most underrated forward in the comp in Tim Membrey. We have reliable defenders like Howard, Wilkie, Webster, Paton and top level runners like Sinclair, Hill and Higgins. If these guys get the support required, and the effort is there every week, we’re winning more games than we lose.

Where do we sit compared to everyone else? It’s mostly crystal ball stuff, but it’s not unreasonable to assume a fit St Kilda team should finish above North Melbourne, Adelaide, Gold Coast, Collingwood, Hawthorn and West Coast. The flag contenders are likely to include Melbourne, Brisbane & the Western Bulldogs. That leaves us in a 9-team battle for 5 finals spots.

I think with limited bad luck, we’ll also be ahead of Fremantle, Carlton, Essendon & Richmond. That puts us 8th at worst – I’m thinking closer to 6th if Geelong and Port fall as expected.

And hey, even we fall short, we’ve got a whole season of going to the footy to look forward to, cheer the f—k up and go you Sainters.

[cwrcyn]

We have plenty of players who have played less than 50 games or thereabouts. Surely, most of these guys will improve

Byrnes 17 games
Bytel 16
Sharman 4
Highmore 12
Connolly 7
King 38
Paton 35


Key players missed a ton of games last year

Gresham 18
Marshall 9
Clark 9
Ryder 10
Jones 9
Paton 22
Hannebery 20


We will be fitter overall. Fitness was a factor in those huge losses last year.


If we have much better player availability, we could replicate 2020. Unfortunately, we're off to a bad start in that area, but the good news is we're better placed to cover those missing players.


Anything can happen. Seasons are unpredictable. It often depends when you play an opposition team. Do you catch them at full strength of when they're down on players? There are so many variables. Look at the dream run Melbourne had last year with injuries and the awful run Richmond and us had. It ruined both teams seasons.

[older saint]

I think a point of the OP is correct IF there is non-lineal improvement, which is what we need.
Going through the list looking at grading the players ( and i am a hard marker unlike media that throw the word champion around willy nilly)

If you say A grade is in the top 5% for your position:
Steele is our only A grader at the start of this season.

Marshall I believe to be A - ( and arguably our 2nd most important player behind Howard)

Howard, Hill, King, Crouch, Hill, Membrey, Ryder, Sinclair, Wilkie Are B+ or B's . From this group King, Wilkie, Sinclair, Howard, Hill, Crouch all have upside . we need at least 2 of these to become A grade

Clarke, Webster, Ross, Paton, Jones, Higgins, Butler, Gresham, Billings , Battle are B- or C+. From this Gresham could leapfrog to A IMO, Clarke seems a slower Burn but needs to get to B+. Higgins i think has upside as does Paton . Therefore at least 1 to B+ and 3-4 to B min.

From there you are looking at young guys like Byrnes, Connolly, Highmore, Bytel, Sharman to become regular first 22 players.

The guys not mentioned either are injured, rookies or untried or top up players who serve the purpose of 19-28 on the talent list, and play a role but will never push for that B+ level.

Luck with injuries and internal growth could see us finish 6th or just as easily finish 11th, that group i think is that close.

[bigcarl]

I think we can go alright, but need a good run with injuries.

Starting with no Ryder, Clark, Coffield, Billings or Jones is less than ideal as IMO that is a quarter of our best side (note that I haven’t included Hannebery as he is available so infrequently).

[saynta]

I think a point of the OP is correct IF there is non-lineal improvement, which is what we need.
Going through the list looking at grading the players ( and i am a hard marker unlike media that throw the word champion around willy nilly)

If you say A grade is in the top 5% for your position:
Steele is our only A grader at the start of this season.

Marshall I believe to be A - ( and arguably our 2nd most important player behind Howard)

Howard, Hill, King, Crouch, Hill, Membrey, Ryder, Sinclair, Wilkie Are B+ or B's . From this group King, Wilkie, Sinclair, Howard, Hill, Crouch all have upside . we need at least 2 of these to become A grade

Clarke, Webster, Ross, Paton, Jones, Higgins, Butler, Gresham, Billings , Battle are B- or C+. From this Gresham could leapfrog to A IMO, Clarke seems a slower Burn but needs to get to B+. Higgins i think has upside as does Paton . Therefore at least 1 to B+ and 3-4 to B min.

From there you are looking at young guys like Byrnes, Connolly, Highmore, Bytel, Sharman to become regular first 22 players.

The guys not mentioned either are injured, rookies or untried or top up players who serve the purpose of 19-28 on the talent list, and play a role but will never push for that B+ level.

Luck with injuries and internal growth could see us finish 6th or just as easily finish 11th, that group i think is that close.

Champion data ranks Sinclair as elite and has done so for a number of years.

A very underrated player, especially by this forum.

[Zed]

They say you can’t use injuries as an excuse but I’m sorry to say , injuries and Covid will be a massive influence on whether we play finals or not.

If we get our best team on the park for the majority of games we will make finals . It’s that simple.

Marshall and Paddy are as good as any ruck combination in the game.
Gresham and Jones add some real burst speed to our midfield complementing the grunt of Steele.
Hill and Sinclair will provide great run out defence
King is not far away from being the dominant tall forward in the comp and if Higgins can clean up his goal kicking, he could easily finish with 40 goals for the year.

If like last year, we have 3 or more of our best 18 out every week , then we will suffer another highly inconsistent year , losing games we should win and occasionally vice versa.

[older saint]

I think a point of the OP is correct IF there is non-lineal improvement, which is what we need.
Going through the list looking at grading the players ( and i am a hard marker unlike media that throw the word champion around willy nilly)

If you say A grade is in the top 5% for your position:
Steele is our only A grader at the start of this season.

Marshall I believe to be A - ( and arguably our 2nd most important player behind Howard)

Howard, Hill, King, Crouch, Hill, Membrey, Ryder, Sinclair, Wilkie Are B+ or B's . From this group King, Wilkie, Sinclair, Howard, Hill, Crouch all have upside . we need at least 2 of these to become A grade

Clarke, Webster, Ross, Paton, Jones, Higgins, Butler, Gresham, Billings , Battle are B- or C+. From this Gresham could leapfrog to A IMO, Clarke seems a slower Burn but needs to get to B+. Higgins i think has upside as does Paton . Therefore at least 1 to B+ and 3-4 to B min.

From there you are looking at young guys like Byrnes, Connolly, Highmore, Bytel, Sharman to become regular first 22 players.

The guys not mentioned either are injured, rookies or untried or top up players who serve the purpose of 19-28 on the talent list, and play a role but will never push for that B+ level.

Luck with injuries and internal growth could see us finish 6th or just as easily finish 11th, that group i think is that close.

Champion data ranks Sinclair as elite and has done so for a number of years.

A very underrated player, especially by this forum.

i struggle with Champion Data as they ranked Mason Cox elite forward this time last year!

[Yorkeys]

Agree, subject to observing:
- we are not generally a quick side (are we?) Dogs and Dees are lightening fast when they press go;
- We are not overly big, solid but probably won't monster any sides;
- Terrific when we move ball quickly and precisely but that's problematic in terms of consistency and we get caught on the counter easily;
- Concerned about where Sharman, Byrnes, Highmore, Coffield and Connolly are at or seen as fitting in by the Coach;
- Have WO Hannebery; Clark potential game winner, seems one who will often be injured and has had some terrible setbacks which may mean his potential is stifled.

We are are far better side than we have been for years and King is an absolute trump.

Key, I think, is how Ratts sets the side up and gets them working together - to state the obvious.

[Sainternist]

The problem is we’re starting the season with no Jones, Billings, Coffield, Clark and Paddy Ryder with a dodgy Achilles.

I hope I’m wrong, but I just can’t see us improving much on last year.

[Teflon]

The problem is we’re starting the season with no Jones, Billings, Coffield, Clark and Paddy Ryder with a dodgy Achilles.

I hope I’m wrong, but I just can’t see us improving much on last year.

Love to be proven wrong but that’s how I see it
Just not enough genuine quality to support Steele
We are relying on other club players and Jones /Ryder have injury battles already (I don’t even include Hannerbury)
Clarke/Coffield the big hopes….ones gone
It’s not even that tbh
I went to Ess match just looking for some better ball movement….some precision hit ups by foot or at least minimal King bombs….I walked away thinking not much has changed and we (played some kids/had injuries) were lucky to just hang on.
I would not be signing Ratten till late in this season tbh if we do early we are kidding ourselves and being to ‘matey’ again and not ruthless

[The Fireman]

my glass is half empty

[loris]

my glass is half empty

Mine’s half full Firey.... so, “I’ll meet you in the middle of the .........”

[SemperFidelis]

Gotta be half full Loris, even with the injuries! We have decades of experience at this!

[desertsaint]

my glass is half empty

i don't want to even look at my glass. just gonna drink it and hope it sates me,

[bangaulegend]

my glass is half empty

Unfortunately Fireman every time I look at my glass it's empty I think that's what 50 years of being a saints supporter has done for me

[CQ SAINT]

I put my glass in the cupboard. I get it out for special occasions. Its been in the cupboard for a while, dry as a hot summer's, Central Queensland drought.