Herald Sun St Kilda 2022 preview: Season predictions for the Saints

[theoracle]

From Dec 27 Herald Sun:

St Kilda 2022 preview: Season predictions for the Saints
One had his season wrecked by a sickening collision, another finished with a bang, while the mid-season pick showed something special. Will they take a step in 2022?

Rebecca Williams
@BecHeraldSun
3 min read
December 27, 2021 - 6:00AM
News Corp Australia Sports Newsroom

Are these three Saints set to take a big step in 2022?
St Kilda sputtered early last season and never really got going, but will things be different in 2022?

Rebecca Williams runs the rule over Brett Ratten’s Saints.
After storming into the semi-finals in 2020 — the team’s first finals appearance since 2011, the hopes of the Saints taking another step in 2021 were dashed.
As injuries cruelled the team’s campaign, with 162 games lost to the best 22, the Saints fell outside the top eight to finish 10th with a 10-12 record.
The Saints were unable to recover from a poor start to the season, losing four of their first 11 games by more than 50 points.
St Kilda president Andrew Bassat said on the club’s best and fairest awards night the Saints had failed to meet on-field expectations.
After topping up with mature-age talent in recent years, St Kilda has, this year, opted to take the path of regenerating its list at the draft.

WHERE DO THEY FINISH IN 2022
If the Saints can have a clear run with injuries and recapture the speed and run which took them to the semi-finals in 2020, there is no reason they can’t be in the finals mix next year.
They only finished a game – and percentage – outside of the top-eight this season with an injury-ravaged list.
There is plenty of upside among the young players on the list with Max King, Jack Bytel, Hunter Clark and Cooper Sharman and they will be hoping Bradley Hill can recapture his best form.
Where will the Saints finish in season 2022?
1-6 35 %
7-12 57 %
13-18 8 %
323 votes

BIGGEST IMPROVER
Hunter Clark. A broken jaw following a brutal collision with David McKay stopped short a season where the Saints’ smooth mover took another step forward. Has looked at home at half back but it’s in the midfield where he really could be the player the Saints need. His Round 1 effort against the Giants in the wet was a glimpse of what he is capable of. All he needs now is to force his way into the middle of the ground and continue his rise.

X-FACTOR
Max King. The No.4 draft pick has all the makings of an elite forward and is a young player Saints fans can get excited about. The 202cm King shrugged off goal kicking yips early in the year to boot 38 goals in his second season at the club, including a six goal haul against West Coast in Round 19. Mid-year recruit Cooper Sharman also impressed in the five games he played after the forward was taken in the mid-year rookie draft in June, kicking 10 goals in four games.

COACH STATUS
Entering his third year of his tenure at St Kilda, the pressure will be on Brett Ratten to get the Saints back into finals contention in the last year of his contract.
Ratten will be hoping he has the football injury gods on his side and the Saints will need a strong start to the season to hose down any speculation about his future.

WHO IS IN LAST YEAR OF CONTRACT
Ben Long, Ben Paton, Dan Butler, Dan Hannebery, Daniel McKenzie, Darragh Joyce, Dean Kent, Jack Bytel, Jack Steele, Jarryn Geary, Jimmy Webster, Josh Battle, Mason Wood, Matthew Allison, Max Heath, Paddy Ryder, Rowan Marshall, Ryan Byrnes, Tom Highmore.

INS FOR 2022
Tom Campbell (delisted free agent), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (pick 11), Mitch Owens (33), Marcus Windhager (47), Oscar Adams (51), Jack Peris (category B rookie), Josiah Kyle (category B rookie)

OUTS FROM 2021
Sam Alabakis (delisted), Jake Carlisle (retired), Oscar Clavarino (delisted), Luke Dunstan (unrestricted free agent – Melbourne), James Frawley (retired), Paul Hunter (delisted), Jack Lonie (delisted), Shaun McKernan (retired), Dylan Roberton (retired)

FIRST SIX GAMES AND HOW MANY THEY WIN
Round 1: Collingwood @ Marvel Stadium (W)
Round 2: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (L)
Round 3: Richmond @ Marvel Stadium (L)
Round 4: Hawthorn @ MCG (W)
Round 5: Gold Coast @ Marvel Stadium (W)
Round 6: GWS @ Manuka (L)
3 wins, 3 losses

BEST 22 IN ‘22
B: Howard, Wilkie, Webster
HB: Sinclair, Highmore, Clark
C: Hill, Crouch, Billings
HF: Gresham, Marshall, Membrey
F: Butler, King, Higgins
Foll: Ryder, Steele, Jones
Inter: Ross, Paton, Hannebery, Sharman
Emerg: Wanganeen-Milera, McKenzie, Bytel, Geary, Coffield

[skeptic]

Thanks for posting

[Wayne42]

Rebecca hasn't caught up yet with the recent re-signing of some players that are on her "last year of contract list".

[cwrcyn]

Can't fit Byrnes into the extended squad? Hmm

[The Fireman]

Three wins three losses after the first six games would we be happy with that?

[CQ SAINT]

Three wins three losses after the first six games would we be happy with that?

I would like 6 wins.

[shanegrambeau]

Can't fit Byrnes into the extended squad? Hmm

Well that list has three unproven players of former glory…
Hannebury
Clark
Paton

All green and untried post injury…In Clark’s case we can add the shell-shock of that collision with a Mac truck, and we know many players are different after something like that.

Hammers is of course sponsored by Medicare and as for Paton? Anyone’s guess. I’m sure he’ll come good but it might take a month or more of games to get his mojo working at full power.

I suspect Byrnes will be picked but maybe not first game.

[Impatient Sainter]

Three wins three losses after the first six games would we be happy with that?

I believe (hope) we will bounce out of the blocks in 2022 with 6 straight wins!

[stkfc1]

Three wins three losses after the first six games would we be happy with that?

Reckon we'd be a good chance against GWS and Freo, so 4 from 6 would be the start we'd be realistically looking for. Even Richmond we'd be a good chance, seeing it's at Marvel. I'm not sold Richmond will be as good as they used to be.

[The Fireman]

I reckon we’ll win five and I’d be happy with that

[samuraisaint]

I reckon we’ll win five and I’d be happy with that

Agree, can't see how we'll lose to Richmond at our home ground, the Giants (in Canberra this time) and can see us beating Fremantle interstate. It's doable.

Fun fact: we've won our previous five matches against the Suns all by nine points or less. Our lowest margin in this unique run of wins - 1 point - was actually in Melbourne too, so we wouldn't want to be caught napping against them.

[Zed]

Good article.

Of the big improvers next year, I think she is spot on with King and Clark. My Smokey is Byrnes (if not 2022 then 2023) - but he is going to find it hard to get into our best 22 in 2022 if we have a full complement. Hope I have better luck with my predictions than I did this year - I had Coff pegged to go to another level and be an outside chance to be in the conversation for the initial AA squad of 40 !

Her best 22 is pretty close to the mark. I don’t think NWM is the 23rd best player in round 1 , but could well be by midway through the season.

[Saintmike65]

Bytel in my 22…Byrnes at least sub (if there will be one).
McKenzie on 1 wing, as Hill likely to stay in defence.
I prefer just the 2 smalls in the forward 50,with Sharman that hybrid third tall forward.
Battle will be given every opportunity at CHB.
Webster deserves to start as a reward for a terrific 2021.
Paton no rush…Hannebery on the bench rotating with McKenzie and Clark on the wings, Wood an option there too!
Billings high half forward.

[Yorkeys]

Just watched Kayo mini of Saints demolishing Freo in last round of 2021. (Spurs being flogged by Chelsea at time)

Observations possibly less obvious:
Long hits hard and is desperate to advance the cause;
Kent's long goals;
Byel's first and second goals ever (a surprise he hadn't goaled before, some fan eh), very neat.
Ross' work off the ball and physical support for Steele.
Butler's energy/creativeness.
Max, Clark, Ryder and others missing; Hill off early and Hunter rucking - still team didn't miss a beat.
Crouch is a big unit.
Fast and fast ball movement.

Can see us being big improvers given normal run of luck.

[cwrcyn]

At this stage Byrnes is way ahead of Bytel. Byrnes will be our next Leigh Montagna

[gringo]

I reckon we’ll win five and I’d be happy with that

It looks like a soft start for the first time in years, we should get a fast break if we make the most of it and hopefully momentum carries us forward. I think some sides that look easy won't be as easy as they look and some harder sides might stumble. Collingwood were decimated by injury and aren't a terrible list but thin. North, Adelaide and GC aren't terrible sides either. Any of those could get a run and then at the top it feels like a lull before there is a settling of a new footy order. Melbourne look the best side but they will have to regroup after climbing a huge mountain. I don't think we are a long way off the sides like Brisbane, Port, Dogs, Geelong etc.

We need a lot to go right but we should really be trying to hit this season like we can win one against the tide. It looks like a year that could be easier than average with no real obvious powerhouse side or sides.

[gringo]

Good article.

Of the big improvers next year, I think she is spot on with King and Clark. My Smokey is Byrnes (if not 2022 then 2023) - but he is going to find it hard to get into our best 22 in 2022 if we have a full complement. Hope I have better luck with my predictions than I did this year - I had Coff pegged to go to another level and be an outside chance to be in the conversation for the initial AA squad of 40 !

Her best 22 is pretty close to the mark. I don’t think NWM is the 23rd best player in round 1 , but could well be by midway through the season.

To me it's a lazy article. I think Clark and King are pretty obvious. Both are looking like the guys with A grade potential. After the bye King pretty much played like he's arrived so it's hardly Nostradamus stuff. To me we need a huge year from Gresham, Jones, Billings, Marshall, Ross, Hill types. All of those guys who have been good in the past but have had a couple of inglorious seasons coasting or injured. If we can get some improvement from Bytel, Byrnes, Sharman, types and a couple of the kids push for a run while the mid tier guys like Snags and Butler continue to improve there is some scope to rapidly improve.

[evertonfc]

I reckon we’ll win five and I’d be happy with that

It looks like a soft start for the first time in years, we should get a fast break if we make the most of it and hopefully momentum carries us forward.

We were 4-1 in 2019 after five rounds and The Age declared us "The story of the season", showering praise on Alan Richardson. I remember thinking we weren't playing half as well as the critics thought and we'd struggle thereafter - we did.

A soft draw gives you a chance to get away, but you have to be good enough to go on with it. And you have to be hungry enough. I don't feel we tick either of those boxes just yet.

I always feel like a bit of a wet blanket on this site but again I don't see the ruthless commitment to high performance that exists at other clubs. I see a lot of talk about it; they've even started to say the right things (Bassat, notably), but I don't think the players or the coaches exhibit the pathological desire to win.

The kind that saw Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca seek to dominate every training session last year, let alone match day, just to set the tone about what was expected on a 24/7/365 basis. Again, I really hope I'm wrong - God, I would give anything - but I just see too many going through the motions, thinking they're 'all in' but way below what the best are doing.

I've got us 6-10; I think we'll probably make finals because a few others will drop away and there exists real external pressure to perform this year. But as for more than that? Not unless this group has a fanatical overhaul of their approach, for I fear the recent internal and player reviews (6 months ago and 18 months ago) simply did not go far enough, and continued to paper over the real problems which will limit us in the hunt for a premiership.

[CQ SAINT]

I reckon we’ll win five and I’d be happy with that

It looks like a soft start for the first time in years, we should get a fast break if we make the most of it and hopefully momentum carries us forward.

We were 4-1 in 2019 after five rounds and The Age declared us "The story of the season", showering praise on Alan Richardson. I remember thinking we weren't playing half as well as the critics thought and we'd struggle thereafter - we did.

A soft draw gives you a chance to get away, but you have to be good enough to go on with it. And you have to be hungry enough. I don't feel we tick either of those boxes just yet.

I always feel like a bit of a wet blanket on this site but again I don't see the ruthless commitment to high performance that exists at other clubs. I see a lot of talk about it; they've even started to say the right things (Bassat, notably), but I don't think the players or the coaches exhibit the pathological desire to win.

The kind that saw Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca seek to dominate every training session last year, let alone match day, just to set the tone about what was expected on a 24/7/365 basis. Again, I really hope I'm wrong - God, I would give anything - but I just see too many going through the motions, thinking they're 'all in' but way below what the best are doing.

I've got us 6-10; I think we'll probably make finals because a few others will drop away and there exists real external pressure to perform this year. But as for more than that? Not unless this group has a fanatical overhaul of their approach, for I fear the recent internal and player reviews (6 months ago and 18 months ago) simply did not go far enough, and continued to paper over the real problems which will limit us in the hunt for a premiership.

Fair points. Can you list the players in the last 18 months you'd have gone harder with in review. Are there still players left you think should be gonr and who would you have drafted or recruited to fix it?

[gringo]

I reckon we’ll win five and I’d be happy with that

It looks like a soft start for the first time in years, we should get a fast break if we make the most of it and hopefully momentum carries us forward.

We were 4-1 in 2019 after five rounds and The Age declared us "The story of the season", showering praise on Alan Richardson. I remember thinking we weren't playing half as well as the critics thought and we'd struggle thereafter - we did.

A soft draw gives you a chance to get away, but you have to be good enough to go on with it. And you have to be hungry enough. I don't feel we tick either of those boxes just yet.

I always feel like a bit of a wet blanket on this site but again I don't see the ruthless commitment to high performance that exists at other clubs. I see a lot of talk about it; they've even started to say the right things (Bassat, notably), but I don't think the players or the coaches exhibit the pathological desire to win.

The kind that saw Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca seek to dominate every training session last year, let alone match day, just to set the tone about what was expected on a 24/7/365 basis. Again, I really hope I'm wrong - God, I would give anything - but I just see too many going through the motions, thinking they're 'all in' but way below what the best are doing.

I've got us 6-10; I think we'll probably make finals because a few others will drop away and there exists real external pressure to perform this year. But as for more than that? Not unless this group has a fanatical overhaul of their approach, for I fear the recent internal and player reviews (6 months ago and 18 months ago) simply did not go far enough, and continued to paper over the real problems which will limit us in the hunt for a premiership.

I think with a fit list and no further development we look a 6th to 12th sort of side. If we get rapid improvement from that group in their early to mid 20s then there is some serious potential for fast improvement. Melbourne didn't get much more out of Oliver, Gawn and Petracca but their next tier down and kids stood up and made a big difference. Guys like Fritch, Pickett, Salem, Jackson, May and Lever etc all stood up and or stayed fit.

I'm a pessimist by nature but there isn't a real powerhouse to contend with right now. Usually we rise just as a dominant legacy team is coming through. Richardson was unlucky with injury or his 2019 might have been different.