Trade-Draft 2021 Discussion

[ace]

Saints:
We currently have 29 players on the main list, with Kent in limbo, however I would expect Wilkie to be added to the main list this year. If we take 3-4 players at the National Draft that leaves us at least 3 short of the minimum. If we upgrade Darragh Joyce & Mason Wood to the main list, that would still leave room for 1 or 2 delisted free agents to add to the main list? 

Hunter is yet to be contracted but at this stage is still on the rookie list

No, St Kilda presently has 30 players on the main list with Kent & Joyce re-signed, only rookie A Paul Hunter remains without a contract.
See page 18 post 5 from the bottom.

At present St Kilda has 6 vacancies.
Wilke & Sharman (or any rookie for that matter) can be promoted or not to the senior list before or after the main and rookie drafts.
St Kilda has 4 picks that contain points, those picks must be (activated) available for the points to be used.
They are all likely to be consumed to get one or two NGAs via matching = queue jumping
So picks 9, 62, 66, 67 must be taken to the draft

Those 6 vacancies can be used as
4 seniors plus 2 rookie A or
5 seniors plus 1 rookie A or
6 seniors

The 2 rookie B will be available for pre selection ahead of the rookie draft.

A sensible strategy would be to take the best available be player at pick 11.
Then match any bids after pick 20 for Windhager and Owens.
That would result in St Kilda having 33 senior plus 6 rookie A with 3 more seniors required to reach the minimum of 36.

This is where the games begin.
6 senior players and 2 rookie B, = 8 total
3 St Kilda definitely want = pick 11, Windhager & Owens.
1 maybe 2 places left vacant for preseason supplemental selection or mid season rookie drafts.
Those rookie positions can be created anytime before or after the main & rookie drafts by promoting Wilkie, Sharman, Wood etc

So all 6 + 2 = 8 players will not be taken in the senior & rookie drafts
Maybe only 6 or 7
3 or 4 more places can be taken
St Kilda may be interested in NGA players Jack Peris, Angus McLellan, Josiah Kyle, Scott Beilby
2 who survive the main draft can be pre selected ahead of the rookie draft as rookie B.
1 or 2 more picks required in main or rookie draft.

St Kilda needs to decide which NGAs it wants ahead of the drafts.
They are certain of 2 as rookie Bs but maybe not who.
If an NGA St Kilda are interested in gets called by another club, St Kilda can use their next available pick to match except very late if St Kilda has passed.
He will become a senior player.
St Kilda can prevent an NGA getting called by another club late by calling the NGA themselves.
He will become a senior player.
If St Kilda are interested in 1 or 2 more NGAs they need to be taken in the main draft or a rookie pick created by promoting Wilkie etc early

[Impatient Sainter]

Why the highlights Ace? You have just repeated what has already been posted, do you not read others posts properly?

What I can see is the club trading in to grab another player that they rate highly eg Bazzo in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.

Im pretty sure everyone knows the rookie rules and I cant see the Saints being forced to bid on other NGA's than Windihager & Owens. The remainder of our available NGA's I would be surprised if other clubs rate them higher than rookies. Im sure if other clubs have shown interest, the Saints will be aware and prepared on the night of the national draft.

Peris played a couple of reasonable TAC games early in the season for Sandringham, but dropped off the planet after that. Didnt play in any of the Allies games even though he was named in the squad.
Kyle is a lightly built small forward (a little timid), who is very much a touch player but has speed and good goal sense on his side.
McLennan is a 186cm HBF. Played 1 game for Sandringham when he had 19 disposals, but hasnt featured after that having a shoulder reconstruction. I hadnt seen him play in 2020 but draft watchers seemed to have previously rate him, but he doesnt get mentioned in any mock drafts or current NGA draft prospects discussions.
Beilby also played a couple of reasonable TAC games early in the season, but after that was quite poor. He is another touch player who has very little physicality to his game. Not a great trait for a small defender.

[saynta]

I am always grateful to read Ace's posts. He has more knowledge and credibility than a lot of others.

Thanks for your efforts Ace.

[saintsRrising]

Yes Windhager's injury should see him slip. So with Owen the only other St Kilda NGA who may be in the top 40, we will most likely now not have to match a bid inside the top 30, and maybe only one in the top 40.

So as Impatient Sainter has indicated that opens the door to St Kilda trading for a pick on the day if there is a player they rate who has slipped and is still available before our first NGA gets called out by another club. A suitable player may not slip, or a NGA may get called too early. However if the club is very confident that Ben King will seek a trade in 2022, then the club would probably want to hang on to our 2022 second rounder as depending where we finish the trade cost would likely be at least a 1st and 2nd rounder, and if we finish in the finals our 1st pic would certainly not be enough.

I would tend to doubt that we will take a large number of our NGA's. Maybe 4 at most. Right here and now we need players that will be AFL ready quite quickly (ie within 2 seasons) and I am not sure a player like say Peris will be. We need to minimise the number of raw "project" players on our list just now. One at, most.

Somewhere in the draft/rookie draft or DFA I am still hopeful of gaining another true tall defender.

[Impatient Sainter]

I am always grateful to read Ace's posts. He has more knowledge and credibility than a lot of others.

Thanks for your efforts Ace.

Ha ha yours included!

[saynta]

Yes Windhager's injury should see him slip. So with Owen the only other St Kilda NGA who may be in the top 40, we will most likely now not have to match a bid inside the top 30, and maybe only one in the top 40.

So as Impatient Sainter has indicated that opens the door to St Kilda trading for a pick on the day if there is a player they rate who has slipped and is still available before our first NGA gets called out by another club. A suitable player may not slip, or a NGA may get called too early. However if the club is very confident that Ben King will seek a trade in 2022, then the club would probably want to hang on to our 2022 second rounder as depending where we finish the trade cost would likely be at least a 1st and 2nd rounder, and if we finish in the finals our 1st pic would certainly not be enough.

I would tend to doubt that we will take a large number of our NGA's. Maybe 4 at most. Right here and now we need players that will be AFL ready quite quickly (ie within 2 seasons) and I am not sure a player like say Peris will be. We need to minimise the number of raw "project" players on our list just now. One at, most.

Somewhere in the draft/rookie draft or DFA I am still hopeful of gaining another true tall defender.

Peris has already played senior football. For Sandy.

[saynta]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/ ... 002541a036


Voss's son impresses.


'He is one of the smartest players I have ever seen play the game of footy. That is AFL, SANFL, everything,” Mattner said.

“His vision with the ball in hand and his is ability to read the play, intercept mark and rebound out of defence or go inside 50m are fantastic.

“He just knows how to find the footy, he defends really well and he is a ripping kid.”

With reduced list sizes and tight salary caps, the squeeze is on across the competition to offer state league stars such as Voss an opportunity on AFL lists. '

[Gershwin]

Ben Waterworth from Fox Sports:

ST KILDA

Draft picks (as of October 21): 9, 62, 66, 67

The list needs they must address:
Another club that’ll benefit from a midfield-heavy draft. While St Kilda was slightly better than mid-table for clearance differential this season, it was ranked last for clearance efficiency. The Saints are well stocked for rounded on-ballers, but they’re missing one with flair and class – a player that not only bursts away from stoppages, but also has polish. And following the departures of Jake Carlisle, Oscar Clavarino, James Frawley and Dylan Roberton, the Saints need a key defender, especially after conceding the second-most goals to key forwards in 2021.

The ideal draft prospects:
What the Saints do with their first pick will be fascinating. If Josh Gibcus – the Jake Lever of this year’s draft as the quintessential modern-day defender at 195cm – is still on the board, he’d be hard to ignore. Otherwise, they’ll be looking for a classy on-baller, with Tyler Sonsie – a midfielder with a high footy IQ, strength at the contest and polish on the outside – sure to be in the mix. Subiaco’s Neil Erasmus, South Adelaide’s Arlo Draper and Murray’s Josh Rachele would bring great spark and an ability to push forward, while first-round bolter Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is the definition of outside class but more of a wingman than midfielder. The Saints will ideally keep their first-round pick then be able to match bids outside the top 20 on two Next Generation Academy prospects in powerful on-baller Marcus Windhager and running midfielder Mitchito Owens.

[ace]

UPDATE = Paul Hunter delisted

SENIORS
1 Matt Allison 2022
2 Josh Battle 2022
3 Jack Billings 2025
4 Dan Butler 2022
5 Ryan Byrnes 2022
6 Jack Bytel 2022
7 Hunter Clark 2023
8 Nick Coffield 2023
9 Leo Connolly 2023
10 Brad Crouch 2024 +1
11Jarryn Geary 2022
12 Jade Gresham 2023
13 Dan Hannebery 2022 + 1
14 Jack Higgins 2023
15 Tom Highmore 2022
16 Brad Hill 2024 + 1
17 Dougal Howard 2024
18 Zak Jones 2023
19 Dean Kent - 2022
20 Max King 2026
21 Ben Long 2022
22 Daniel McKenzie 2022
23 Rowan Marshall 2022
24 Tim Membrey 2024
25 Ben Paton 2022
26 Sebastian Ross 2023 + 1
27 Paddy Ryder 2023
28 Jack Sinclair 2024
29 Jack Steele 2022
30 Jimmy Webster 2022


ROOKIES A
1 Max Heath 2022
2 Darragh Joyce - 2022
3 Cooper Sharman 2023
4 Callum Wilkie - 2023 Can be retained as a rookie for 4th season due to rule change https://www.afl.com.au/news/659265/afl- ... or-rookies
5 Mason Wood 2022

Senior list must be 36 to 38
Rookie A list must be 4 to 6
Total senior plus rookie A players no more than 42
2 rookie B allowed on top

Must make a total of 3 draft selections or rookie promotions
Only selections activated by vacancies can be used.
That means to use multiple picks to queue jump a club must have all those picks activated by vacancies.

So as it stands St Kilda can make 7 senior selections plus 2 rookie B (pre-selections ahead of the rookie draft probably NGAs).

As they stand today picks 9, 62, 66, 67, 85, 103 & 121 have been activated.
Should other clubs not activate picks then St Kilda's activated picks will move forward.
Then on the night pick 9 is almost certainly going to become pick11 as Collingwood is expected to queue jump for a father-son in Daicos and Bulldogs to do likewise for Darcy
When they do so they will consume multiple picks causing St Kilda's later picks to advance forward in the order and increase in points value.
Other father-son and NGA queue jumping for picks in the 21 to 40 range on the night will reshuffle the order.

St Kilda must go into the season with a minimum of 36, maximum of 38 senior players so they must make a minimum of 6 main draft senior picks or upgrades existing rookies A e.g Callum Wilkie, Cooper Sharman, Masson Wood etc. 3 main draft picks must be made.
Any of the remaining places available become rookie A places up to a maximum of 6 rookie A.
Rookie A places not filled in the rookie draft become available for pre season supplemental selection or mid season rookie drafts.

[Wayne42]

I expect the club to pick 1 or 2 Delisted Free Agents before the draft, a ruckman and a key defender.

[ace]

I need clarity on whether rookie As can be promoted to seniors between the end of the main draft and the rookie draft.
That would ensure all main draft picks not taken could be converted to rookie A picks.

But my next guess St Kilda with a maximum of 7 Senior/rookie A vacancies
Would like to make at least 3 picks regardless of rookie upgrades.
Hoping to utilise present pick 9 at pick 11 on the night on the "best available" player
Hoping to gather Windhager and Owens by queue jumping for St Kilda NGAs after pick 20.
Hoping to hold back at least 2 rookie A spots for pre season supplemental selections &/or mid season rookie drafts.
Probably making 4 senior picks especially for a third St Kilda NGA if called by another club.
Any senior picks made will be near the tail end of the draft so pretty speculative.
At some stage 2 senior upgrades would be made to increase senior numbers to 36.
Wilkie the obvious first choice, then Sharman, but maybe Wood.

Then preselect the best 2 remaining St Kilda NGAs as rookies B.
Then make 1 rookie A selection at pick 9 but this pick could equally be used at the rear of the main draft to ensure the player is still available.

St Kilda NGAs to be considered after Marcus Windhager 183cm and Michito Owens 190 cm would be Jack Peris 176cm, Angus McLennen 186cm, Josiah Kyle 182cm and Scott Beilby 186cm.

[ace]

With Shaun McKernan and Paul hunter both delisted St kilda is once again swimming naked in the ruck
If the water goes out of either or even worse both Paddy Ryder and Rowan Marshall the midfield will get slaughtered.
Someone who can at least compete is needed.
Max Heath has the height but zero relevant experience.
Howard and King are St Kilda's book ends not ruckmen. (Sorry if that word has been changed to ruckers and I didn't spot it).
As Wayne42 suggests a ruckman (rucker) must be found despite almost every other club looking as well.

[saintsRrising]

With Shaun McKernan and Paul hunter both delisted St kilda is once again swimming naked in the ruck

One would assume that prior to delisting Hunter that they would be confident that they have an upgrade, whether that be Tom Campbell or another.

It may be that they have multiple players and are still deciding on which one gets offered a contract.

[ace]

With Shaun McKernan and Paul hunter both delisted St kilda is once again swimming naked in the ruck

One would assume that prior to delisting Hunter that they would be confident that they have an upgrade, whether that be Tom Campbell or another.

It may be that they have multiple players and are still deciding on which one gets offered a contract.

Tom Campbell, I am told he never farts.
Does not like emitting methane and carbon dioxide.

[ace]

Pick 9 will become pick 11 on the night when Collingwood queue jumps for Daicos and Bulldogs queue jump for Darcy.
If one of Josh Gibcus or Mac Andrew is still available at pick 11 then St Kilda can choose between him and the 9th best midfielder in the draft.
If both are gone St Kilda can pick the 8th best midfielder in the draft.

Who are the 8th and 9th best midfielders ?
Nick Daicos 183cm Oakleigh Chargers
Jason Horne-Francis 183cm South Adelaide
Finn Callaghan 189cm Sandringham Dragons
Ben Hobbs 183cm Greatern Western Victoria Rebels
Josh Ward 181cm Northern Knights
Josh Rachelle 180cm Murray Bushrangers
Neil Eraasmus 188cm Subiaco
Arlo Draper 185cm South Adelaide
Matthew Johnson 192cm Subiaco
Nasiah Wanganeen- Milera 187cm Glenelg
Josh Sinn 186cm Sandringham Dragons
Tyler Sonsie 181cm Eastern Ranges
Matthew Roberts 183cm South Adelaide
Josh Goater 190cm Calder Cannons
Sam Butler 184cm Greater Western Victoria Rebels

[skeptic]

Personally I am really liking Tyler Sonsie
Looks like a kid that just really knows how to play. Gets himself into the best positions, decent disposal, works hard and is fast.

Most phantom drafts have him going past our pick

Wanganeen-Millera is the other one that I quite like. He kind of reminds me of Raph Clark but his disposal seems like thread the needle level accurate and he makes really clever choices.
Tends to look like he hesitates before kicking (hence the Raph comparison) so he looks like he’s always about to get caught but seems to have very good awareness.

Will be spewing if both slip past us

[SAINT-LEE]

I am always grateful to read Ace's posts. He has more knowledge and credibility than a lot of others.

Thanks for your efforts Ace.

Spot on

[saynta]

From the heraldsun.com.au

"St Kilda

Draft picks: 9, 62, 66, 67, 85

List needs: Key defenders, midfield polish, goalkicking small forwards, key forward depth

Who could be available at first pick: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Neil Erasmus, Matthew Johnson

Could be in the mix after that: Marcus Windhager (NGA), Michito Owens (NGA), Jack Peris (NGA)

St Kilda has two Next Generation Academy prospects, Windhager and Owens, who should be taken inside the top 40, despite limited exposure for varying reasons. But Saints fans will be crossing their fingers and toes that the pair aren’t snaffled by a rival club inside the top 20, with NGA Academy bids unprotected in this draft range. Powerful and versatile midfielder-forward Windhager appeared the most likely to be taken in the first round but he has suffered a recent back injury, while Owens came with a rush mid-year and has more growth left in him as a 190cm midfielder. Matched bids could force the Saints into a draft points deficit with their limited picks, but it is unlikely to be significant. The elite footskills of Wanganeen-Milera would address a glaring need at the club’s first pick, a side short of exponents of the ‘money’ kick and midfield polish. The wingman has some admirers in the top 10 and some believe he will be the second South Australian taken on draft night. It might be too early for the Saints to consider a key defender, but Erasmus and Johnson are tall midfielders who could be on the offer at their first selection. The Saints also have the lightning-quick Peris, the son of Commonwealth Games gold medallist sprinter Nova, as an NGA prospect, who shapes as a late-rookie chance.
Campbell Chesser is a damaging prospect on the outside. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos

[Ghost Like]

It appears we'll be spoilt for choice with our first pick. Sinn, Sonsie, Erasmus, Wang-Millera, Goater, Chesser, Rachelle, Draper, Butler...all sound very good. Be nice to have a couple of picks between 10 and 20.

That said, getting Windhager and Owens for a combination of late picks makes getting one of the above a great draft.

[Banger9798]

It appears we'll be spoilt for choice with our first pick. Sinn, Sonsie, Erasmus, Wang-Millera, Goater, Chesser, Rachelle, Draper, Butler...all sound very good. Be nice to have a couple of picks between 10 and 20.

That said, getting Windhager and Owens for a combination of late picks makes getting one of the above a great draft.

We should set up a pole for our first pick.

The fact that there are 6-7 good ones to choose from , I reckon it wouldn't have mattered that much if we had looked at a swap of first round picks with Port Adelaide in exchange for Ladhams

[Impatient Sainter]

It appears we'll be spoilt for choice with our first pick. Sinn, Sonsie, Erasmus, Wang-Millera, Goater, Chesser, Rachelle, Draper, Butler...all sound very good. Be nice to have a couple of picks between 10 and 20.

That said, getting Windhager and Owens for a combination of late picks makes getting one of the above a great draft.

It will be great to get them both to the club?

For me it would be the first major win we have had at the draft, since the AFL gave us a priority pick back in 2000 and we picked up Roo and Kosi. Im hoping the club can also trade into some where in the 2nd or 3rd rounds to pick up another targetted player. If we can add 6 to 10 new players to our list this year the age dynamics of the list will change quickly.

[Wayne42]

Josh Sinn, Half back Flanker.

Having grown up as a Bluebagger, he would love to don the navy blue, but as a half-back flanker by trade is well aware that opportunity may not be possible.
“Obviously I’d love to end up at Carlton, but with the position that I play and Carlton having brought in players like Adam Saad and Zac Williams, it doesn’t really all match up,” he said on SEN Breakfast.
“I just want to get picked up, it doesn’t matter where I end up, what state, what club. I just really want to make it into the AFL and make a name for myself.”

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/10/26/ ... -essendon/

[Devilhead]

Josh Sinn, Half back Flanker.

Having grown up as a Bluebagger, he would love to don the navy blue, but as a half-back flanker by trade is well aware that opportunity may not be possible.
“Obviously I’d love to end up at Carlton, but with the position that I play and Carlton having brought in players like Adam Saad and Zac Williams, it doesn’t really all match up,” he said on SEN Breakfast.
“I just want to get picked up, it doesn’t matter where I end up, what state, what club. I just really want to make it into the AFL and make a name for myself.”

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/10/26/ ... -essendon/

Hinted that a Carlton rival is very interested

Reckon he would be suited more to the wing

[ace]

Cal Twomey's October rankings out
https://www.afl.com.au/news/685788/cal- ... er-ranking

He has Windhager at 29 and Owens at 30.
After 197 point discounts for each St Kilda would need 456 points for Windhager and 432 points for Owens = total
At present St Kilda has picks 62, 66 & 67 in the points presently worth 123, 80, 69 points total = 272 points.
Each St Kilda pick will gain roughly 12 points for every pick used by Collingwood and Bulldogs to get Daicos and Darcy.
If my expectation that both North Melbourne and Greater Western Sydney will not enforce the integrity of the draft (se my next post) leaving Gold Coast to do the right thing then one will require 1788 points and the other 1628 points to match.

Collingwood presently has picks 36, 38, 40, 46, 48, 55, 58 worth 502, 465, 429, 331, 302, 207, 170 points
If Gold Coast call Daicos at pick 3 Collingwood would use picks 36, 38, 40, 46 and have 241 points remain on pick 48.
The entire draft order would move places to fill in the gaps.
When pick 46 remainder is placed it will slot in at pick 53 so picks after that will be demoted by 1 place.
St Kilda picks would now be 10, 59, 63, 64

Bulldogs presently have picks 23, 43, 44, 45, 52 in the points.
Collingwood's move would reorder Bulldogs to 24, 41, 42, 43, 48 worth 785, 412, 395, 378, 302 points
If Gold Coast call Darcy at pick 4 Bulldogs would use picks 24, 41, 42 and have 342 points remain on pick 43.
The entire draft order would move places to fill in the gaps.
When pick 43 remainder is placed it will slot in at pick 46 so picks after that will be demoted by 1 place.

St Kilda picks would now be 11, 57, 61, 62 the last 3 worth 182, 135 & 123 points = total 440 points.
That is just not enough to match Windhager requiring 456 points.
The remaining 16 points would be stripped from St Kilda's 2022 second round pick
Then Owens would increase the deficit to 448 points off St Kilda's second round pick.

This likely deficit requiring the 2022 round pick that meant St Kilda could not use that pick in any pick swaps for Xerri.

North has made it pretty clear they will give their pick at No1 the $10,000 AFL bonus and the honour of being pick No1.
GWS has previous form for ignoring draft integrity, on one occasion even allowing Collingwood an effective bonus late first round pick.
Collingwood were spared the need to match and so used their next pick immediately after GWS to get a different player then they matched when another club called their player.

[ace]

2020 Draft
Pick 15 GWS ignores Collingwood's NGA Reef McInnes instead selects Conor Stone.
Had GWS called McInnes, Collingwood's next pick would be consumed matching.
Picks 16 Collingwood does not need to protect McInnes so calls Lachie Jones that gets matched by Port Adelaide.
Pick17 Collingwood repicks this time Oliver Henry.
GWS has pick 18 again ignores McInnes and takes Ryan Angwin.
Again Collingwood has been let off the hook by GWS, they are free to use
Pick 19 for Finlay McCrae
Pick 20 Geelong
Pick 21 Melbourne, they stole Jake Bowey 5 picks ahead of St Kilda
Pick 22 Melbourne
Pick 23 GWS finally they call McInnes and Collingwood matches.

What undisclosed side deals took place will never be revealed.