Pick Swaps

[damienc]

The Saints are participants in a big four club trade of picks.

We give away 49 and receive 62,66 and a future Adelaide fourth rounder.

Is this a way to bank points for our academy selections?

[amusingname]

The Saints are participants in a big four club trade of picks.

We give away 49 and receive 62,66 and a future Adelaide fourth rounder.

Is this a way to bank points for our academy selections?

Just was coming to ask similar, looks like a move to ensure we can get our academy players (if available) as well as get the future asset for maybe a trade this year or stockpile assets for next year.

[Banger9798]

Apparently when the Dogs and Pies use multiple picks for points for Father Sons etc those picks will go up in value.
I assume it is all about NGAs

[Wayne42]

Saints now have picks 9 - 62 - 66 - 67- 85 in the 2021 draft.

[Banger9798]

Saints now have picks 9 - 62 - 66 - 67- 85 in the 2021 draft.

So when Dogs use 3 to match for Darcy and Pies use 3 to match for Daicos for instance those picks on the 60s slide down 4-5 spots and increase in value?

Seems a tenuous deal but I hope they have done the maths

[Wayne42]

Here's a question,

If a club bids on a Saints NGA player after pick 20 can the Saints match that bid with their next pick, if yes, then all our next picks are in the 60's.

Makes the NGA's cheap gets, if we have 3 of them then they are for picks 62 - 66 and 67.

[Banger9798]

Here's a question,

If a club bids on a Saints NGA player after pick 20 can the Saints match that bid with their next pick, if yes, then all our next picks are in the 60's.

Makes the NGA's cheap gets, if we have 3 of them then they are for picks 62 - 66 and 67.

It's the value of the points for each pick though.

As it stands we have actually lost net worth, but as the Father Son deals get done we accrue points as the picks slide lower eg 62 becomes 58, 66-62, 67-63

Still need to get more to guarantee the NGAs if they are bid on between 20-30 though.

[Wayne42]

Can you use 2 picks to match a bid if you don't have enough points with your next pick ?

https://www.afl.com.au/news/523629/stat ... okie-draft

[kosifantutti]

Yes.

[amusingname]

So the hopeful scenario would be that we perhaps acquire another late pick, Owens gets through to after pick 20 so we have access to match a bid with the points from all but one of our selections, Windhager makes it through to after pick 40 so we only have to use our next pick (or he even falls out of the draft and we get him as a rookie selection).

[Wayne42]

So the hopeful scenario would be that we perhaps acquire another late pick, Owens gets through to after pick 20 so we have access to match a bid with the points from all but one of our selections, Windhager makes it through to after pick 40 so we only have to use our next pick (or he even falls out of the draft and we get him as a rookie selection).

If all our NGA's are bid on between 21 and 40 we will be in strife, i think, unless we have more trades in mind.

The AFL table says pick 62 is 123 points, 66 is 80 points and 67 is 69 points.

Another AFL table says bids between 21 and 40 are valued at 197 points = picks 62 and 66
Bids after pick 40 are matched by next available pick = pick 67.

[Banger9798]

Is Owens rated above Windhager now?
I thought it was the other way around

[Wayne42]

Is Owens rated above Windhager now?
I thought it was the other way around

Personally, i don't know much about our NGA players or how they are rated, i just know that now that we have some the AFL has complicated the process.

On top of that we are now trying to guess the Saints Draft strategy.

[Banger9798]

Typical to change the rules the one year we can actually get some value

[shmic_s]

With NGA's thought we'd be after more points.

Pick 49 = 287 points
Pick 62, 66 = (123 + 80) 203 points

So less points for this year...

So to answer the OP.... no.

[Viscount Jeremiah]

With NGA's thought we'd be after more points.

Pick 49 = 287 points
Pick 62, 66 = (123 + 80) 203 points

So less points for this year...

So to answer the OP.... no.

But in reality, what will happen is picks 62 and 66 will become mid to low the 50s after the Dogs and Collingwood use all of their assembled picks to bid on Daicos and Darcey.

Once that happens we should move ahead on points this year plus the 4th round pick next year can be used on a ruckman or banked.

[shmic_s]

With NGA's thought we'd be after more points.

Pick 49 = 287 points
Pick 62, 66 = (123 + 80) 203 points

So less points for this year...

So to answer the OP.... no.

But in reality, what will happen is picks 62 and 66 will become mid to low the 50s after the Dogs and Collingwood use all of their assembled picks to bid on Daicos and Darcey.

Once that happens we should move ahead on points this year plus the 4th round pick next year can be used on a ruckman or banked.

Yeah but Pies have 22, 36, 43, 46 & 48, and Dogs 23, 44 & 45.
All before our pick 49. So that would increase in value as well.

[ace]

Can you use 2 picks to match a bid if you don't have enough points with your next pick ?

https://www.afl.com.au/news/523629/stat ... okie-draft

Excellent info Wayne42 = Judson
Each NGA player will cost St Kilda 197 points if they are called 21 to 40 but after 40 any available selection
So lets say Windhager & Owens are both called in the 21 to 40 range as expected they will cost 197 points each.

[shmic_s]

Can you use 2 picks to match a bid if you don't have enough points with your next pick ?

https://www.afl.com.au/news/523629/stat ... okie-draft

Excellent info Wayne42 = Judson
Each NGA player will cost St Kilda 197 points
So lets say

Ok, makes sense now!

[therabbitinthehat]

Each NGA player will cost St Kilda 197 points

If we have to match prior to pick 41. From the trading done it looks like they're expecting our NGAs to go after 41 so they're only costing us next single pick rather than 2 picks combined, but the points of those combined are still enough should one of them get picked earlier. Plus we get an extra pick next year on top. Good trading if that's how it ends up happening.

So we either get:
NGA1, 2 and 3 for our 3 late picks
Or
NGA 1 for 2 picks, NGA 2 for last pick, and NGA 3 as a rookie.

It only really breaks down if 1 & 2 are both selected prior to pick 41

[Impatient Sainter]

The longer it goes on, the more worried I am that our club will finally get a couple of lads through our academy and some other club will get one or two of them. Lets just pray that both the lads make it past pick # 20???

I wrote to Matt Finnis a few months ago, suggesting he should lobby the AFL and ask them to allow club/s who havent had the opportunity of a 1st Round NGA pick to do so until all clubs have had equal access.

[ace]

The longer it goes on, the more worried I am that our club will finally get a couple of lads through our academy and some other club will get one or two of them. Lets just pray that both the lads make it past pick # 20???

I wrote to Matt Finnis a few months ago, suggesting he should lobby the AFL and ask them to allow club/s who haven't had the opportunity of a 1st Round NGA pick to do so until all clubs have had equal access.

But that would be fair.
The AFL does not do fair.

[Viscount Jeremiah]

With NGA's thought we'd be after more points.

Pick 49 = 287 points
Pick 62, 66 = (123 + 80) 203 points

So less points for this year...

So to answer the OP.... no.

But in reality, what will happen is picks 62 and 66 will become mid to low the 50s after the Dogs and Collingwood use all of their assembled picks to bid on Daicos and Darcey.

Once that happens we should move ahead on points this year plus the 4th round pick next year can be used on a ruckman or banked.

Yeah but Pies have 22, 36, 43, 46 & 48, and Dogs 23, 44 & 45.
All before our pick 49. So that would increase in value as well.

That's where the power of two picks is valuable though. Both combined should increase more than a single pick 49 would.

let's say 66 and 62 drop down to 50 and 54 respectively and 49 drops down to 39.

The net result would be a win to us by about 50 points.

[evertonfc]

It's a pleasing deal (with an asterisk, see below). I'm pleased that we've finally put together a deal that benefits us.

If it all goes as planned, we're giving up Pick 49 for Owens, Windhager and Adelaide's further 4th (likely to be 55-60 next year before bidding). Because Picks 21-41 are rated as a 197 points discount, and those late picks will slide up the order when Collingwood/Bulldog picks are absorbed, it dampens whatever deficit we're facing.

Honestly: I think the club feels that neither player will go top 25 and at least one (probably Windhager) will probably sneak beyond 41, hence it makes sense to have more picks. If we have to go into deficit, so be it.

I just see this as a percentage play - a little bit of guessing, sure - but I think it means we'll probably walk away from this year's draft with Pick 11, two "second round equivalent" players and probably one or two speculative state league types at the end of the draft.

We might go into deficit next year; but I'm certain we agreed to this deal on the proviso that Melbourne signed Dunstan as an unrestricted FA, which nets us compensation (likely end of 3rd round) rather than a delisted FA (no compensation). We can then pile that 3rd rounder into our draft hand to help soak up the points required for these two.

[ace]

Each NGA player will cost St Kilda 197 points

If we have to match prior to pick 41. From the trading done it looks like they're expecting our NGAs to go after 41 so they're only costing us next single pick rather than 2 picks combined, but the points of those combined are still enough should one of them get picked earlier. Plus we get an extra pick next year on top. Good trading if that's how it ends up happening.

So we either get:
NGA1, 2 and 3 for our 3 late picks
Or
NGA 1 for 2 picks, NGA 2 for last pick, and NGA 3 as a rookie.

It only really breaks down if 1 & 2 are both selected prior to pick 41

Cal Twomey had Windhager at 25 and has said he would have placed Owens at 31.
But wait what compensation will we get for Dunstan.
If that is end of 3rd round/start 4th = pick59 = 158 points, other late picks slip one place to become 63, 65 & 68
NGA1 cost picks picks 59 + 63
NGA2 costs picks 65 + 68 but that is 48 points short of 197 each of picks 65 + 68 would need to move forward on the night by 3 places.
Given one of those is 63 dropping out and multiple picks being used for Daicos & Darcy that should cover Windhager & Owens.
Now if Dustan gets mid 4th round that would add pick68
The 62 + 64 is 224 that gets NGA1
Then picks 67 + 68 is 128 points, 69 points short but advance them 4 places and NGA 2 is covered.
If NGA3 falls outside of the top 40 then pick 85 can be used if activated.