How far off are we?

[older saint]

Ok it's all on paper so means nothing and we are crystal balling :

Big Backs: Lever, May , Petty
Mid/ Small Backs: Hibbard, Bowey , Salem

BB: Wilkie, Howard, Highmore
Mid/Small Backs: Sinclair, Paton, Webster

2 things stand out to me here - Toughness with Hibbard , can Webster become that player? Salem - class ball use - major hole across our side. Sinclair probably our nearest option but a little ways off.
Our bigger defenders are more stay at home spoilers as opposed to interceptors and therefore we lack rebound like they get.

Mids:
Melb:Petracca. Oliver, Viney. Brayshaw, Langdon, Harmes
Stk: Steele, Crouch , Jones, Ross, Clarke, Hill, Billings

Consistency is where they stand up and durability. Clarke has a pre season coming which could be the difference between being a good AFL player and and elite AFL player? Jones too many injuries needs to stay on the field more often . Langdon more consistent than HIll. Difference is Petracca and Oliver vs Steele. One quality mid short

Ruck : Gawn Jackson vs Ryder, Marshall. - Gawn best in the comp . Jackson a version of Marshall perhaps a year or 2 behind but further developed at the same age. Ryder very good at ruck work but due to age and injuries can be exposed now around the ground. Need to find his replacement this year as the kid we drafted will be at best a couple years away. = Ladhams?

Forwards:
Melb: McDonald, Fritsch, Brown
Stk: King, membrey , Sharman
Melb: Pickett, Neil Bullen,
Stk: Butler, Higgins

Think we are well placed here. Picket has the X factor we lack . this we have this well covered and can drop the extra big back.
They have advantage that Petracca can go forward. Steele has shown a little bit of this but with lack of midfield cover probably doesn't get to use it as much as could

Next 4
Melb: Sparrow, Spargo, Rivers, Hunt, Jordan
Stk: Coffield , Gresham, Byrnes, Battle

Can argue about who is on this list. All 4 players have the chance to elevate their game and push some above but will they or are they happy being afl players?

All in all couple of areas to improve for 2022:
- Need to introduce very good ball users,
- increase mid field depth and quality through there not just numbers
- as many have fantasies about B King joining us if you look on needs it isn't an area we need. Obviously if he says he wants to come you dont say no and perhaps Membrey becomes the 3rd defender as an interceptor? Type of player we need to either have develop (clarke?) or recruit is a ball user who can get it say 20 times a game and really hurt you with 15 of them rather than 30 times and hurt you with 12.

[cwrcyn]

Nothing we have matches Petracca or Oliver. Those guys are pretty exceptional players. We don't have a monstrously strong key defender like May, either.

In all other respects we match them. Steele is a little bit behind Oliver & Petracca, but he's a gun player now. It would be nice to have another true A grader in the midfield. Our remaining mids match Melbourne's remaining mids. The combination of Marshall and Ryder is equal to the influence of Gawn. Our small defenders match theirs, as do our small forwards.

We're not far off the pace. One genuine key defender and one A Grade midfielder is what separates the two teams at the moment

When we played them this year we lost by 18 points. Next time if all goes well, we'll have the following players to play against them who weren't available last time

Crouch
Marshall
Ryder
Paton
Hannebery
Sharman

If those guys play, then we can judge where we're really at.

[cwrcyn]

Throw in Byrnes to that group, too

[SydneySainter]

Nothing we have matches Petracca or Oliver. Those guys are pretty exceptional players. We don't have a monstrously strong key defender like May, either.

In all other respects we match them. Steele is a little bit behind Oliver & Petracca, but he's a gun player now. It would be nice to have another true A grader in the midfield. Our remaining mids match Melbourne's remaining mids. The combination of Marshall and Ryder is equal to the influence of Gawn. Our small defenders match theirs, as do our small forwards.

We're not far off the pace. One genuine key defender and one A Grade midfielder is what separates the two teams at the moment

When we played them this year we lost by 18 points. Next time if all goes well, we'll have the following players to play against them who weren't available last time

Crouch
Marshall
Ryder
Paton
Hannebery
Sharman

If those guys play, then we can judge where we're really at.

I think that summary is largely spot on.

However, would those two additions allow up to match up on Geelong and Port? Two others we still can’t beat.

[bigcarl]

I don’t think we’re that far off at least finishing top 4, but premierships aren’t easily won. You need a lot of things to go right.

The injury ladder was an eye-opener to me. We finished top for injuries to first-22 players. Melbourne finished bottom. It was a stark contrast, something like 126 games lost to 24 games from memory.

At full strength we’d give Melbourne a run for their money. For a start we have ruckmen who can match theirs, although granted Ryder is probably in his last season next year.

Their defence - May, Lever etc - is settled and rock solid. That was key to their season.

[Saints58]

How about Gresham when he plays he is a bit of x factor we haven't had for nearly 2 years also Paton with him could he play mid he is quick.
And there is Connolly as Ratts said he is very good ball user maybe we are not as fare off first thought.

We do need a KPD and another Ruckman. With the KPD we could look at a guy in the SANFL who Cal Twomey named in his mature age team Leek Aleer 20 196cm 84kg he is a CHB at central districts and intercept mark. Or Michael Hartley just got Delisted from Hawthorne he is 28 199cm 100kg 49 games he is Elite in Disposals, Elite in Kicks Elite in handballs, above average in Tackles average in spoils below average in Intercept marks.

I suspect he got delisted because new coach has plenty of KPP who are early mid 20s and didn't fall in his plans, we could get both these players for not much and would fill a need.

[cwrcyn]

Melbourne ....of their best 22

10 players played every game
4 players missed one game
Their 5 most important players (Gawn, Petracca, Oliver, Lever, & May) missed two games between them (both S. May)

St Kilda

3 players played every game
3 players missed one game

Our 5 most important players (Ryder, Marshall, Steele, King, & Gresham) missed 40 games between them

[happy feet]

A dream run with injuries will help at any tilt at the premiership. How far off are we? A difficult question to answer. But with our propensity to fluff things up, I’d say we might be a few years away.

[spert]

I remember after we got beaten by the Dees in Alice Springs, concluding then that our midfield was not good enough, Max got flogged by May, but he was pretty raw and has taken a step up since then. We needed a big fast mid, and have for years, as I reckon Steele is very tough and our best, but is not he X-factor who swings games. Ratts has been out-coached in quite a few games tactically, plus we need to get fitter and harder. If we can bring through another ruck too, then we have something to build on,. but I think we are only bottom of the eight for a couple of years at best.

[perfectionist]

57 years

[older saint]

Melbourne ....of their best 22

10 players played every game
4 players missed one game
Their 5 most important players (Gawn, Petracca, Oliver, Lever, & May) missed two games between them (both S. May)

St Kilda

3 players played every game
3 players missed one game

Our 5 most important players (Ryder, Marshall, Steele, King, & Gresham) missed 40 games between them

Agree injuries play a big part, however no way Gresham , especially with our depth chart , is in our 5 most important players. Howard and Wilkie, without even thinking are in front. We also have a problem if Ryder is in the list also - not because of talent but because of age.

[saynta]

I am astounded at the number of posters that still add an E to Clark's name after he has been on the list since 2017.

I am starting to think that some posters do it on purpose to annoy others.

Apart from that I think the op is spot on.

I am hoping however that we will still add a couple of midfielders through the draft to be developed along with Connelly, Bytel and Byrnes,

And yes, we are not far of it, no matter how awesome the Dees looked last night.

From halfway through the 3rd quarter, the doggies were merely witches hats.

Their season well and truly caught up with them and bit them on the arse.

[saynta]

Nothing we have matches Petracca or Oliver. Those guys are pretty exceptional players. We don't have a monstrously strong key defender like May, either.

In all other respects we match them. Steele is a little bit behind Oliver & Petracca, but he's a gun player now. It would be nice to have another true A grader in the midfield. Our remaining mids match Melbourne's remaining mids. The combination of Marshall and Ryder is equal to the influence of Gawn. Our small defenders match theirs, as do our small forwards.

We're not far off the pace. One genuine key defender and one A Grade midfielder is what separates the two teams at the moment

When we played them this year we lost by 18 points. Next time if all goes well, we'll have the following players to play against them who weren't available last time

Crouch
Marshall
Ryder
Paton
Hannebery
Sharman

If those guys play, then we can judge where we're really at.

[Impatient Sainter]

As with all GF winning teams its the midfield power what wins the big games. We need a full season out Marshall & Ryder (or Ladhams if we get him) plus a big leap in team fitness levels.

2 x dominant ruckman
2 x elite midfielders & 4 x A/B graders
Another dominant key defender

We have the bones of a very good side we just need players like Clark, Gresham, Bytel, Byrnes or Connolly to grow quickly as midfielders. Highmore or Battle to become AA level defenders and improvement across the list and we are getting closer.

If Hill & Hannebrey can return to somewhere near the best form that would be a huge bonus.

TBH I believe our need for another elite match winning midfielder out weighs, how trading in Ben King would accelerate our progression to sucess.

[desertsaint]

salem was very good. i think sincs is a fair way off him, yet was our runnerup b&f.
that kind of tells the story right there. there have more quality across the park.
up forward, can't think of any of our small/mid forwards who could do what fritsch did - near perfect kicking display. hopefully gresh can beome our goal scoring mid.
we trump them with king, but that's about it. lever a step up on wilkie, would love a may, allowing howard to play a freer role. op is quite right - with steele and crouch we have our gun mid and viney quality backup, but badly need another gun.
who knows in a year though. a few might step up further, some good signs in our youth.

[Laurie]

To win like they did was outstanding they have exeptional midfielders in Viney Petracca and Oliver
and a solid backline led by May and Lever.
They have recruited well and the development of their players has also been very good.

Sorry to say but we do have a long way to go on what i saw last night.
We will be dreaming for a number of years yet.
BOOM BOOM

[B.M]

Good injury run

We are a decent side, at times dangerous.

There are a few rungs in AFL teams

We are a rung down from 5-8, a couple from m the top 4

[samuraisaint]

Nothing we have matches Petracca or Oliver. Those guys are pretty exceptional players. We don't have a monstrously strong key defender like May, either.

In all other respects we match them. Steele is a little bit behind Oliver & Petracca, but he's a gun player now. It would be nice to have another true A grader in the midfield. Our remaining mids match Melbourne's remaining mids. The combination of Marshall and Ryder is equal to the influence of Gawn. Our small defenders match theirs, as do our small forwards.

We're not far off the pace. One genuine key defender and one A Grade midfielder is what separates the two teams at the moment

When we played them this year we lost by 18 points. Next time if all goes well, we'll have the following players to play against them who weren't available last time

Crouch
Marshall
Ryder
Paton
Hannebery
Sharman

If those guys play, then we can judge where we're really at.

Last year (2020) we played them in Alice Springs and lost by three points by a goal kicked which looked to be touched on the line so I think we match up on them okay. Our problem is how we match up on sides like Adelaide, Port, Geelong and the Eagles. We can't keep going in to every season looking at these fixtures and instantly wiping off six matches a year as definite losses.

Until we start to beat teams like that, and beat them consistently we will always struggle to be a top team. All of those teams are, I would say, much better resourced than ours is, more disciplined, skilled, drilled, and have better engine rooms actually playing - a lot of our mids, Hanners, Gresh, Zac, Paddy and RoMa this year (and Crouch at the beginning of the season) were not actually out there often enough to make a real impact. On top of all of these, Clark missed a lot of games with a broken jaw.

The change in assistants, line coaches and fitness/conditioning staff will help too, if all the rumours about last season's pre-season training being more about strategic planning than al the fitness stuff they would usually do were correct.

I thought our late season matches against the likes of the Swans, Freo and Brisbane, showed what we are capable of, even when we have up to a half of our best 22 out.
But our hidings against Footscray, Richmond, Essendon and Port also show what we are capable of due to our lack of depth.

[Teflon]

Ok it's all on paper so means nothing and we are crystal balling :

Big Backs: Lever, May , Petty
Mid/ Small Backs: Hibbard, Bowey , Salem

BB: Wilkie, Howard, Highmore
Mid/Small Backs: Sinclair, Paton, Webster

2 things stand out to me here - Toughness with Hibbard , can Webster become that player? Salem - class ball use - major hole across our side. Sinclair probably our nearest option but a little ways off.
Our bigger defenders are more stay at home spoilers as opposed to interceptors and therefore we lack rebound like they get.

Mids:
Melb:Petracca. Oliver, Viney. Brayshaw, Langdon, Harmes
Stk: Steele, Crouch , Jones, Ross, Clarke, Hill, Billings

Consistency is where they stand up and durability. Clarke has a pre season coming which could be the difference between being a good AFL player and and elite AFL player? Jones too many injuries needs to stay on the field more often . Langdon more consistent than HIll. Difference is Petracca and Oliver vs Steele. One quality mid short

Ruck : Gawn Jackson vs Ryder, Marshall. - Gawn best in the comp . Jackson a version of Marshall perhaps a year or 2 behind but further developed at the same age. Ryder very good at ruck work but due to age and injuries can be exposed now around the ground. Need to find his replacement this year as the kid we drafted will be at best a couple years away. = Ladhams?

Forwards:
Melb: McDonald, Fritsch, Brown
Stk: King, membrey , Sharman
Melb: Pickett, Neil Bullen,
Stk: Butler, Higgins

Think we are well placed here. Picket has the X factor we lack . this we have this well covered and can drop the extra big back.
They have advantage that Petracca can go forward. Steele has shown a little bit of this but with lack of midfield cover probably doesn't get to use it as much as could

Next 4
Melb: Sparrow, Spargo, Rivers, Hunt, Jordan
Stk: Coffield , Gresham, Byrnes, Battle

Can argue about who is on this list. All 4 players have the chance to elevate their game and push some above but will they or are they happy being afl players?

All in all couple of areas to improve for 2022:
- Need to introduce very good ball users,
- increase mid field depth and quality through there not just numbers
- as many have fantasies about B King joining us if you look on needs it isn't an area we need. Obviously if he says he wants to come you dont say no and perhaps Membrey becomes the 3rd defender as an interceptor? Type of player we need to either have develop (clarke?) or recruit is a ball user who can get it say 20 times a game and really hurt you with 15 of them rather than 30 times and hurt you with 12.

There’s no way anyone could count Billing’s (HF), Hill (HB Ross (trade scrap heap) Clark (HB) as genuine mid comparison to Melb
Compounding that is Jones , good on his day, can also be a headless chook and you count on him for at least 3-4 weeks out per year via hamstrings
Leaves us extremely thin with stuff all outside spread
I disagree with others who say for that reason don’t chase Bing
Every side needs a point of difference
Our midfield might never have a Petracca but if we can add to it (we will this year with 1 top 10 pick plus NGAs) to ensure we service a dominant forward line I think May and co will find that a very different proposition to a Naughton who tried hard but was just lacking strength and height to stretch them
Well stretch most sides with them and while we are doing that ....Sharman (aka Fritsch) gets off the leash

[The_Dud]

Mids mids and more mids, of the quality kind, it’s pretty simple.

Draft as many as we can and hope a couple pay off!

[bangaulegend]

How long is a piece of string? IMO we have a decent list but need players like Clark, Coffield, Battle & even King to go to another level (similar to Sincs this year). Our midfield is solid but lacks speed & finesse .Our back line is solid but lacks a big bodied KPP .Our forward line is pretty strong but need to make more of forward 50 entries & work harder to keep the ball in our forward 50 . Need a replacement for Ryder because he's only one bad injury from retirement & we need a decent run with injury . Melbourne is proof that you can turn it around pretty quick with a bit of luck & smart recruiting so I am still hopeful but I'm not confident we can attract the personnel required to fill in the gaps .

[cwrcyn]

To have Petracca and Oliver at the centre clearances is an absolute blessing for Melbourne. They are tireless, fearless, powerful, and creative. Oliver is just about the highest energy player I've seen in the AFL. Viney is a hard nut but lacks polish and creativity. He's just a battering ram. Brayshaw is a tireless worker who has a bit more polish than Viney. Harmes is another aggressive high energy player.

On our side, Steele is a hard running, hard tackling mid who is consistent and is now elite. Jones is high energy with speed, but inconsistent with disposal and output. Gresham is a fine clearance player who is good around goals but sloppy with his field kicking. Hannebery is elite when fit. He rarely misses a target. Ross is a workhorse with poor disposal. Billings is a one paced player with good field positioning and foot skills. Byrnes is an energetic runner who makes good decisions and is a neat kick.

So...what i see is that Melbourne is a more high energy midfield that has a more pace. If Byrnes can lift his game couple of notches he may become the player Brayshaw is.

[bangaulegend]

To have Petracca and Oliver at the centre clearances is an absolute blessing for Melbourne. They are tireless, fearless, powerful, and creative. Oliver is just about the highest energy player I've seen in the AFL. Viney is a hard nut but lacks polish and creativity. He's just a battering ram. Brayshaw is a tireless worker who has a bit more polish than Viney. Harmes is another aggressive high energy player.

On our side, Steele is a hard running, hard tackling mid who is consistent and is now elite. Jones is high energy with speed, but inconsistent with disposal and output. Gresham is a fine clearance player who is good around goals but sloppy with his field kicking. Hannebery is elite when fit. He rarely misses a target. Ross is a workhorse with poor disposal. Billings is a one paced player with good field positioning and foot skills. Byrnes is an energetic runner who makes good decisions and is a neat kick.

So...what i see is that Melbourne is a more high energy midfield that has a more pace. If Byrnes can lift his game couple of notches he may become the player Brayshaw is.

Agree with most points but Hannebery last game he kicked 2 out on the full & his disposal efficiency stat was poor. I like Byrnes but IMO his kicking lacks penetration & has a long way to to get to Brayshaws level however he is still only young & I hope he can develop to be that good.

[saintsRrising]

To have Petracca and Oliver at the centre clearances is an absolute blessing for Melbourne. They are tireless, fearless, powerful, and creative. Oliver is just about the highest energy player I've seen in the AFL. Viney is a hard nut but lacks polish and creativity. He's just a battering ram. Brayshaw is a tireless worker who has a bit more polish than Viney. Harmes is another aggressive high energy player.

On our side, Steele is a hard running, hard tackling mid who is consistent and is now elite. Jones is high energy with speed, but inconsistent with disposal and output. Gresham is a fine clearance player who is good around goals but sloppy with his field kicking. Hannebery is elite when fit. He rarely misses a target. Ross is a workhorse with poor disposal. Billings is a one paced player with good field positioning and foot skills. Byrnes is an energetic runner who makes good decisions and is a neat kick.

So...what i see is that Melbourne is a more high energy midfield that has a more pace. If Byrnes can lift his game couple of notches he may become the player Brayshaw is.

Their midfield has 2 elite players, we have 1. Neutrals would probably assert that their 2 are bother better than Steele. Plus Oliver and Petracca are not just elite players, they are both elite of the elite.


Overall we now have a pretty good team if all, or at least most are fit, but we lack top end stars (rated in terms of what level players were at in 2021).

The Dees deservedly had 5 AA players in 2021. We had 1. That is probably a fair indication of what we lack.

King looks lie he will be a true gun. So that gives us 2. Roma can be very good, but as a first ruck Gawn is better. Roma could become the best forward ruck in the competition. So we need a successor to Ryder. Lets us hope that Heath comes on. But we still lack a gun or two, and as we have known for years we most need that gun in our midfield.




I think as we all now appreciate that if we had Petracca we would look a lot better at present. He is exactly the type of player that our midfield and team needs most. And he could well remain the player that will help to give Melbourne the edge over us. Steele can help to balance Oliver out, but we have no one like Petracca in type or ability. In his draft year some described him as potentially a once in a generation player. And that he now looks to be. The Dees once in this generation player.

If you look at the Tigers. would they have won the flags they did without Dusty? He made them walk taller. You need more going right that just one super player though, and the Tigers had that. But without true top end cream it is hard to be a true contender.

The dilemma we have is that such superstars are rare and hard to get. You mainly have to draft them as youngsters in the National Draft.

So we lack a superstar, and we lack a few elite players as well.

I think we need to keep churning the draft to grow our own, as I doubt that we will secure them in draft or as FA.

[B.M]

Good players win flags

Whether it be Mids, Forwards, Backs or Rucks

Dogs had
Bontempelli, McRae, Libby, Dunkley, Smith, Treloar.

Couldn’t get it done - can’t surround Mids with s*** players

Melbourne had
May, Lever, Petty, Salem, Hibberd and Bowey

Brown, Fritch, MCDonald, Pickett, Neale Bullen

Gawn, Jackson

Supporting those Mids