Can we still make finals?

[Jacks Back]

We've just completed round 9 and we are 4 wins and 5 losses

There are 13 games to go. You need at least 12 wins to get into the finals and probably at least 13 with a bad percentage.

That means to win 12 games we have to win at least 8 more games and have only 5 more losses. With a minimum of 13 wins to get in (because of percentage) we need to win 9 more games with only 4 more losses.

Can it be done or is the math now just too hard?

[desertsaint]

our season was done and dusted many weeks back. we needed significant improvement this year to even get close given our double ups. we went backwards.

[shanegrambeau]

I voted yes. I still think a turn-around is possible after the bye. Don't ask me how anymore. (not that anyone ever did lol)

[Scollop]

I had a good think. Based on guessing (and it's not like you are betting and it costs you anything) I voted Yes

I think after the effort and work rate I saw against Geelong, I reckon we are good enough. We could have had 7 goals on the board by quarter time.

I have faith in our coaches for 2022 and beyond and I'm sure we'll recruit some young talent and there will be good senior players that want to come and play under Ratts

[Wayne42]

I voted No.
The injuries we have had this season has exposed the clubs lack of depth.
The playing list has more holes than a block of Swiss cheese.
The ongoing list development is.......Ongoing.

[Yorkeys]

Its not up to us anymore. Several teams above have to lose consistently. That would mean us getting unusual luck with results. Saints hoping for luck is like, well you pick the analogy of impossible.

Plus we are not good enough, forward craft is very poor, one big mobile defender short. Not sure what our forwards coach philosophy is other than look for Max, which is self defeating as at the moment he can't handle the spotlight, fluffs lines.

[scallopsroe]

To factor in the loss of Gresham, Jones, Marshall, Paton, Geary, Carlisle and the continued injuries to Hanneberry means that there are too many quality players unavailable for selection. We just don't have the depth to cover these injured players, nor do I suspect many other clubs would be capable of filling gaps of this magnitude.

That's how it will go down for 2021. A clean out at years end, some fresh new faces, possibly an early pick 4 or 5 will give a much needed boost to the team list. That's football

[SaintPav]

I've just about given up this year, but IF we play with the same intensity that we did on Friday, we will be a chance in most games. If we can be 7 6 after round 13, get Marshall back after the bye, we are a sneaky chance.

We have a difficult draw though compared to Brisbane which is just ridiculous.

My thinking is, go the mini rebuild and reset for 2022/23 with lower draft picks, free agency and recruiting and a better draw.

[MCG-Unit]

Voted Yes - it's still possible

[MickThomas]

There's a huge gap between our best and worse.
The only players who get the job done, are Steele and Crouch (Brad had 28 touches n 9 tackles vs Cats)

The others might 'try their hardest' and 'are hurting too' but raw numbers say they're not doing their job.
Hell, even Skunk goes missing in large patches.
All the missing players have hurt the squad.

[shanegrambeau]

Its not up to us anymore. Several teams above have to lose consistently. That would mean us getting unusual luck with results. Saints hoping for luck is like, well you pick the analogy of impossible.

Plus we are not good enough, forward craft is very poor, one big mobile defender short. Not sure what our forwards coach philosophy is other than look for Max, which is self defeating as at the moment he can't handle the spotlight, fluffs lines.

I see us beating West Coast, Freo, GWS, possibly Brisbane, possibly Geelong and Sydney post bye if the fixture went that way...but I don’t see them loosing consistently. For a slump, I’d pin my hopes on Freo, GWS, As the best chance...but maybe Geelong will get exposed.. we showed em all how to do it!
Slim pickings.

[Teflon]

Won’t beat WC Cats etc away from Marvel no hope

[repta]

It is still possible.
Although I believe i may just book holidays for the second week of the finals as I dont believe we really deserve to be there or have the current team to make much impact.

Saints motto applies "there is always next year"

[Life Long Saint]

Hard to see us making it.
The big loss to Essendon was devastating. Not only for missing out on the easy four points but for the margin.
Lacklustre performances against Port and Richmond added to the poor percentage.
Our low percentage is equivalent to another game we have to make up.

Can't see us beating the Bulldogs, Geelong, WCE, Brisbane, or Sydney (away).
We have 50/50 games against Sydney (home), Collingwood, Port (home), and Carlton.
We must win the games against North, Adelaide, and Fremantle.

We have four wins from nine games.
We will need 13 to be any chance with our percentage. That's nine more wins from thirteen games.
We must win all the 50/50 games and ideally win one of the tough games.

[older saint]

Draw too tough and percentage hurts :

WC, Geelong, Brisbane away - fortress type venues Loss 4-8
North, Freo , Adelaide, Coll , Carlton wins 9-8
Maths then says must win of Richmond ( MCG), WB, Port (h) , Sydney (twice) or if lucky 3 or 4

Not going to happen unfortunately .

MY guess 10-12 finish 10th

[Sanctorum]

Come on....it's typical St Kilda supporters negativism to say this early that the team can't make finals. Their best, which they demonstrated emphatically on Friday night against the "in red-hot form" Cats was outstanding, and more than enough to beat even Melbourne and Western Bulldogs. Take note that even Chris Scott admitted after the game that St Kilda were by far the best team on the night.

I'd bring Carlisle in for Marshall to share ruck duties with Paddy rather than McKernan as I believe Jake will be bigger and better resting forward or back, has very good hands.

I believe Ratten now has the team clearly focussed on immense pressure and swift ball movement and I doubt that the forwards will be so sloppy again in front of goals.

Time to be a True Believer!!

[ace]

It is still possible.
Although I believe i may just book holidays for the second week of the finals as I dont believe we really deserve to be there or have the current team to make much impact.

Saints motto applies "there is always next year"

Can we start next year now or restart this year from scratch with a full team ?
My computer lets me do this when I play games.

[Impatient Sainter]

No chance with our win/loss & percentage.

[shadrock]

Will struggle to make it, especially when you look at how the top 8 is unfolding and the talent we are up against.

A clearcut lack of legitimate elite talent is whats holding us back. We have a cast of B+ players.

[chook23]

We will be lucky to win 9 - 10 games for season

NO to finals

May only win 8

[shanegrambeau]

Come on....typical St Kilda supporters negativism ......

.....bring Carlisle in for Marshall to share ruck duties....

Time to be a True Believer!!

Are we irrational or do we rationalise? ..

But is Carlisle officially injured or just in the dog house again?

[bangaulegend]

I voted no poor start ,injuries to key players tough draw at the back end & inability to convert chances plus poor percentage still possible but would take something special IMO

[saynta]

"Can" and "will" are too entirely different words

[Winmar7]

13 games remaining...

Should win - Nth, Syd (H), Adel, Coll, Carl, Freo and that will give us 10 wins

Won't win - WB, Rich, Bris, WCE & Geel (all away)

So we need to beat Port in Melbourne and Sydney away, then get out the calculator and hope we sneak into 8th spot

Finals looking unlikely, but would so love to be proven wrong!

[saintsRrising]

Can we make finals still is a different question, than will we make finals still.

Roma and Paddy are I think clearly our two most important players at present.

Paddy due to his ruck craft.

But with Marshall it is not just his talent around the ground, it is that he has presence and lifts those around him. When Roma is on son the whole team lifts. Paddy does this too, but Roma moreso. Roma makes team mates walk taller.

In 2019 when he came back into the team. He "arrived", but not only that when he "arrived" we started to look competitive again.

Roma leaving the field against the Cats was when the game turned. Yes losing Crough too for a while did not help.



So yes we can make the finals. Roma if he misses many more games this season may mean that we will not make the finals.